The Economy of Iran
Esfandiar Jahangard; Alireza Jahangard; Negar Ebrahimi
Abstract
In recent years, with increased access to relevant data and statistics, especially inter-country input-output tables and micro-level data within companies, as well as advancements in computer data processing capabilities for managing these vast datasets and information and communication infrastructure, ...
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In recent years, with increased access to relevant data and statistics, especially inter-country input-output tables and micro-level data within companies, as well as advancements in computer data processing capabilities for managing these vast datasets and information and communication infrastructure, the possibility of efficient joint use of databases for analyzing foreign trade has been provided. The aim of this paper is to implement the decomposition method of Borin and Mancini (2023) on Iran's gross exports using a source-oriented approach and the exporter's perspective as a baseline analysis for decomposing the value added in Iran's gross exports of economic activities. The contribution of this paper to the Iranian economic literature can be summarized in the following three subjects: Firstly, it uses one of the inter-country input-output database (ICIO) for the year 2016, considering Iran, for empirical documentation. Secondly, among the existing theoretical frameworks, it focuses on the latest theoretical framework proposed by Borin and Mancini (2023) with a source-oriented approach and the country's perspective for economic activities in Iran. Thirdly, it provides a structural interpretation of Iran's economy for the year 2016 and can be used by researchers and policymakers regarding the global value chain of Iran's economic activities.
Shahryar Zaroki; Sahar Nasrnejad Nesheli; Niloufar Gorgani Firoozjah
Abstract
In any society, the focus of statesmen, policymakers, and researchers on poverty reduction and enhancing economic welfare is necessary. Given that most government economic policies affect relative prices and their fluctuations, which in turn impact welfare, analyzing the welfare effects caused ...
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In any society, the focus of statesmen, policymakers, and researchers on poverty reduction and enhancing economic welfare is necessary. Given that most government economic policies affect relative prices and their fluctuations, which in turn impact welfare, analyzing the welfare effects caused by price changes in different product groups seems necessary The aim of this study is to investigate the role of inflation of different commodity groups on Iran's economic welfare from 1972 to 2021. The research model is estimated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Economic welfare is measured using a composite index of well-being. The trend of the well-being index fluctuated during the study period reaching its peak in 1975 and its minimum in 1990. The long-term results of the estimation of the research model reveal several key findings:
First, total inflation and inflation of different groups of goods have an unfavorable effect on economic well-being.
Second, among different product groups, inflation in the housing, fuel, and lighting group has the most adverse effect on economic welfare.
Third, considering that the share and weight of the group of food, beverages and tobacco in the consumption basket of households is larger than other groups of goods, but the size of the effect of inflation of this group of goods on economic welfare is in the fourth place. Fourth, the increase in the inflation of the health and treatment group has the least adverse effect on economic welfare. Another finding is that per capita income and economic growth have a favorable effect on economic welfare. According to the obtained results, the government should take measures such as adopting appropriate measures in line with monetary discipline and preventing the irrational increase of monetary variables in accordance with inflation targeting to control inflation in order to improve welfare.
Introduction
The provision of economic welfare across different segments of society is a key concern for politicians in the country. Article 43 of the Constitution aims to ensure the independence of society, eradicate poverty and deprivation, and fulfill the basic needs of individuals as they progress, including housing, food, clothing, health, education, and the necessary facilities for family formation, along with providing working conditions and opportunities for full employment. To attain a comprehensive understanding of welfare and how to measure it, it is crucial to clarify the concept itself. Identifying the impact of various sectors such as housing, education, nutrition, health, and treatment on changes in welfare is essential. This allows for prioritizing efforts in each of these fields to enhance societal welfare, growth, and development. Monroe asserts that the primary objective of a society is to allocate resources among its members to maximize their welfare. Achieving this goal involves allocating resources in a manner that generates the highest overall income for society. In a free market economy, this allocation is typically accomplished through prices, which play a crucial role in determining changes in household welfare. Inflation and its fluctuations should be recognized as significant factors affecting welfare. Understanding the relationship between inflation and welfare enables policymakers to implement effective measures to mitigate its adverse effects and promote overall societal well-being.
Method
The Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB) serves as a comprehensive and inclusive measure utilized in the current research to assess economic welfare. This index encompasses various dimensions that contribute to overall well-being, including:effective per capita consumption flow, net social accumulation of reserves and wealth-generating resources, economic inequality and economic insecurity. Each dimension is assigned weights in a specific manner, reflecting their relative importance. Consequently, the weights allocated to each dimension may vary across different observations. (Ozberg and Sharp, 2009). The general form of this index is as follows:
The value of the economic welfare index is measured by four components, which are consumption flow (CF), productive asset balance (WS), individual income distribution (ID), and economic security level (ES) (Bakhtiari et al., 2013). In this research, the base year of 2015 was used to validate the variables.
In the following, in order to investigate the effect of inflation of the total basket and different groups of goods on economic well-being, the autoregressive approach with distribution breaks (ARDL) has been used. First, the research model is specified with the aim of explaining the effect of inflation in the total basket of goods and services on economic welfare. Then, with the aim of analyzing the effect of inflation in different commodity groups, the research model will be presented. So in these two specifications of the IEWB research model, economic welfare is expressed as a dependent variable, which is calculated with the combined index of welfare. Inf inflation of the entire basket of goods and services, inflation for each of the 7 product groups [including 1. Health and treatment group (Health), 2. Clothing and footwear group (Cloth), 3. Furniture, accessories and Services used at home (Furniture), 4. Food, beverages and tobacco group (Food), 5. Recreation, education, hotel and restaurant group (ECERH), 6. Transportation and communication group (Transport) 7. Housing, fuel and lighting group, RGDPPC per capita real GDP, EG is economic growth.
Based on the above model, it is possible to test the effect of inflation in the mentioned 7 groups on the welfare of Iran's economy in the short ـ term and long ـ term situation.
Result and Discussion
In the material dimension of welfare, people should have a balanced life that includes employment and sufficient income to meet their basic needs. However, in many societies, includingIran, inflation and the instability of real purchasing power often pose challenges to people's ability to maintain material welfare. This can directly impact household consumption patterns and overall economic welfare. Therefore, understanding the effects of inflation on economic welfare is crucial. Considering the necessity of explaining the effect of inflation on economic welfare in Iran, in the present study, an attempt was made to analyze the effect of inflation of total goods and services and inflation of different groups of goods on economic welfare. For this purpose, while calculating the economic welfare with the composite index of welfare in the period of 1973 ـ 2022, the research model was estimated with the autoregression approach with distribution breaks. Our findings reveal a fluctuating trend in Iran's economic welfare during the study period. Following an initial increasing trend, economic welfare experienced a decreasing trend from 1976 until the end of the war. It increased again after the war, but decreased again in the post ـ war period.
The maximum value of the welfare index with the value of 69.6 belongs to the year 1354 and the lowest value of the welfare index with the value of 1.16 belongs to the year 1991. The results of the model estimation in 8 different estimations indicate the existence of a negative effect of inflation (total and basket of goods) on economic welfare. Based on this, the comparative results in the long term indicate that firstly, the inflation of all goods and services and the inflation of different commodity groups have an adverse effect on welfare. Second, among the 7 product groups, the inflation of the housing, fuel, and lighting group has had the most adverse effect on economic welfare. Also, due to the fact that the share and weight of the group of food, beverages, and tobacco in the consumption basket of households is larger than other groups, but the size of the inflation effect of this group of goods on welfare is in the fourth place. The increase in the inflation of the health and treatment group has the least adverse effect on economic welfare. Per capita income and economic growth also have a favorable effect on welfare, as expected.
Akbar Bagheri; Hasan Abagheri
Abstract
One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from ...
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One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from the banking industry for 18 public and private banks in the period from 2016 to 2021. Using the panel data approach, the influencing factors in the probability of bankruptcy are also investigated. Estimates from the panel approach show that credit diversification is effective in reducing the probability of bankruptcy. Similar evidence shows that the probability of bankruptcy for private banks is equal to 68% and for public banks 70%. The calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index has also shown a value of 0.33 for Iran's private banks and 0.63 for state banks, so credits in private banks have a higher diversity than in state banks. According to the results of the research, more attention should be paid to diversifying credits in public and private banks, determining the optimal size of banks to take advantage of economies of scale, monitoring the central bank's compliance with Basel index standards and monitoring the maintenance of banks' cash balances for the unforeseen demand of the society.
Reza Maaboudi; Zeynab Dare Nazari
Abstract
This paper aims to study the relationship between financialization and the variables of income distribution and economic growth in Iran during 1988:q1 -2019:q4. To analyze the relationship, the continuous wavelet transform approach and to explain the results with empirical facts, the regression ...
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This paper aims to study the relationship between financialization and the variables of income distribution and economic growth in Iran during 1988:q1 -2019:q4. To analyze the relationship, the continuous wavelet transform approach and to explain the results with empirical facts, the regression approach with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) have been used. Results of the wavelet transform show that, in the short-run, there is a positive coherency between financialization and income inequality; so that during 1989-2007 and 2014-2019, financialization is the leading and cause of income inequality. Also, in the short run, there is a negative coherency between financialization and economic growth; in a way that during 1989-2019 financialization is the leading and cause of economic growth. The results of the MIDAS approach also show that in addition to financialization, the variables of government expenditures, economic growth, inflation, and sanctions have a positive and significant effect, and the policy of targeted subsidies has a negative and significant impact on income inequality. Also, financialization, government expenditures, income inequality, inflation, and economic sanctions have a negative and significant effect, and physical capital, employment, and degree of trade openness have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. As a result, the phenomenon of financialization accompanied by the imposition of economic sanctions and government policies, on the one hand, leads to an increase in the wage and income gap between the real sector and the financial sector, and, on the other hand, their effects leave a negative impact on economic growth by the diversion investment to unproductive activities.
Mahdiyeh Saei
Abstract
The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods ...
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The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods accounts were split into cereal accounts, other agriculture, industry, and mining and services. The results of the model, using three simulation scenarios, showed that as a result of climate change, the production of all sectors excluding industry and mining would be reduced, which would result in higher prices for cereals and lower prices for other activities. In addition, grain exports will decrease in different scenarios and exports of other goods will increase. On the other hand, cereal imports will decrease as imports and other commodities decrease. In this regard, the welfare of urban and rural households will also decrease, which is more pronounced for urban households. According to the results, the macroeconomic effects of these scenarios are the reduction of nominal and real GDP, total absorption and private consumption of households.
Reza Zamani; Sepideh Mohsen Pourian
Abstract
We use the budget expenditure approach to evaluate tax evasion of self-employed businesses in Iran. As self-employment guilds cover various jobs, we choose dentists as a sample. Facing limited data access, we use household budget expenditure in 2016. We first calculate the the income of dentists’ ...
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We use the budget expenditure approach to evaluate tax evasion of self-employed businesses in Iran. As self-employment guilds cover various jobs, we choose dentists as a sample. Facing limited data access, we use household budget expenditure in 2016. We first calculate the the income of dentists’ society and then estimate the income tax they should pay according to the tax law. Finally, we compare the actual income tax paid with the calculated income tax to estimate the tax evasion. Since the data published by the two official institutions are different, we have two different numbers of dentists: 20405 and 26301. We find that in both cases, like other countries in the world such as the United States, England, Italy, Russia, and Greek, self-employed individuals have a high level of tax evasion.
Parviz Davoudi; Hassan Sabzi Khoshnami
Abstract
Income inequality has received much attention from economists and policymakers as one of the components of economic development. On the other hand, the difference between developed and developing economies can be checked in the efficiency of their financial systems. This study investigates the ...
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Income inequality has received much attention from economists and policymakers as one of the components of economic development. On the other hand, the difference between developed and developing economies can be checked in the efficiency of their financial systems. This study investigates the effect of financial development on income inequality in Iran using the threshold regression method during 2020-1967. The results show that the effect of financial development of the banking sector and the stock market on income inequality has a threshold limit. in model one, the financial development of the banking sector before and after the threshold has a significant and negative effect on inequality. In model two, stock market financial development has significant and negative effect on income inequality before the threshold but not significant effect after the threshold. However, there is insufficient evidence to support the effect of financial development on income inequality in the form of Greenwood and Jovanovic's inverse U hypothesis.
hojjat izadkhasti
Abstract
Regional inequality has economic, social and cultural dimensions. One of the main concerns of planners and policymakers in economic development programs is reduction of poverty and inequality based on provincial income per capita. Therefore, through budget allocation tools, the government can reduce ...
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Regional inequality has economic, social and cultural dimensions. One of the main concerns of planners and policymakers in economic development programs is reduction of poverty and inequality based on provincial income per capita. Therefore, through budget allocation tools, the government can reduce inequalities in provincial incomes per capita and create more balance among provinces. In this paper, the effects of inequality in the allocation of provincial budget on provincial inequalities are estimated using dynamic panel data method for period 2005-2016 in 30 Iranian provinces. The estimation results indicate that the increase in inequality of provincial capital formation budget has reduced inequality in provincial income. This result indicates an increase in government investment in infrastructure and a higher share of government development budget in less-developed provinces. Also, with increasing inequality in provincial current per capita budget, inequality in regional income has increased; because an increase in inequality of current per capita budget in the provinces can lead to unbalanced public service provision and an increase in inequality of income per capita.
Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian; parviz rostamzadeh; hamzeh sheikhiani
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on Social Accounting Matrix data of year 2011. The results show that in current institutional situation of Iran, the reduction of tariffs in the agriculture, horticulture, forestry and mining sectors can reduce inequality and tariff reduction in sectors of food industry, low technology industries, high technology industries, higher education, transportation and other services will increase inequality in urban and rural areas. By reducing tariff rates in mid-tech industries, inequality in urban and rural areas initially decreases and then increase. Reducing tariffs in oil and gas and healthcare sectors does not affect inequality in urban and rural areas. It is also shown that in the case of implementing resistance economy policies and improving institutional quality, tariff rate reduction in all sectors of production will reduce inequality. Reducing tariff rates in primary and secondary education sectors, housing and other sectors that de not have any link to outside world has no effect on inequality, both in the current institutional situation and in the case of institutional quality improvement as a result of implementing resistance economy policies. Therefore, it is suggested that attention be paid to improvement of institutional quality in the country, along with the implementation of resistance economy policies.
Reza Zamani
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to study social order in Iran between two revolutions (1906-1979). Generally, there are two types of social order: limited- and open-access. Limited-access (or Natural State) social order is sub-categorized into three types of fragile, basic and mature. It can be shown ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to study social order in Iran between two revolutions (1906-1979). Generally, there are two types of social order: limited- and open-access. Limited-access (or Natural State) social order is sub-categorized into three types of fragile, basic and mature. It can be shown that between constitutional revolution and 1921 coup, Iran was caught in fragile natural state. Then, from this coup to political regime change from Qajariyyeh to Pahlavi (1921-1925), Iran was switching from fragile to basic natural state. Iran’s social order in Reza Shah era (1925-1941), was basic natural state and economic growth achieved in a closed political sphere which did lead to double imbalances. From 1941-1946 Iran experienced a sharp backward move to fragile social order. After that, social order was switching from fragile to basic natural state during 1947-1953. During period 1953-1963, basic natural state was stabilized. There were a lot of attempts to politically control the military (as the last transition condition to open-access social order) during 1941-1963, but these efforts finally failed. The golden decade of economic growth in Iran happened between 1963 to 1972. In this decade, economic system was switching form basic to mature natural state. However, political access was under tight restriction and control. Therefore, double imbalance of economic and political systems emerged again. In 1973-1979 the country was going back from basic to fragile natural state, and dominant coalition threatened and finally was overthrown completely by Islamic revolution (1979).
alaeddin ezoji; Abbas Assari Arani; mohmmad reza vaeze mahdavi; GholamReza K. Haddad
Abstract
The relationship between human capital and labor productivity is always important for economists. Considering the relationship between these two will also be remarkable in microeconomic studies. Meanwhile, the impact of different dimensions of human capital on labor productivity can be a measure ...
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The relationship between human capital and labor productivity is always important for economists. Considering the relationship between these two will also be remarkable in microeconomic studies. Meanwhile, the impact of different dimensions of human capital on labor productivity can be a measure of actual effect of human capital on productivity. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of various dimensions of human capital (education, health, and experience), on labor productivity based on individual characteristics in Iranian economy. We use micro data (Cost–Income Survey of Urban Areas - 2013) and estimation of Quantile Regression (QR) econometric technique. For this purpose, net income (wage and salary) for employment in private sector is used as proxy of labor productivity. Our results show that in different quantiles, all three dimensions of human capital have a positive and significant effect on productivity of labor force employed in Iranian private sector. Meanwhile, in different quantiles, health indicators of human capital are more volatile than other dimensions of human capital, i.e. education and experience. So, in lower quantiles (Ql), the response of labor productivity to health indicators is more than higher quantiles (Qh). Because of that, any kind of health shock may have a greater effect on labor productivity in lower-income groups. This result shows the importance of health capital in social security, insurance and health systems and reminds us to improve the productivity of working people by means of better health capital.
Siab Mamipour; Elham Mogaddasi
Abstract
This paper aims to study the role of gold, stock and foreign currency as hedges against inflation in Iran based on monthly data over period 2000-2016 by using a novel approach with nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL). To achieve this goal, the effect of positive and negative inflation shocks ...
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This paper aims to study the role of gold, stock and foreign currency as hedges against inflation in Iran based on monthly data over period 2000-2016 by using a novel approach with nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL). To achieve this goal, the effect of positive and negative inflation shocks on price of these assets is estimated separately. The results show that all assets (foreign currency, gold and stock) are hedges against inflation in Iranian economy. As inflation rate increases, the prices of these assets also increase, but the magnitude and type of their hedge against inflation vary in different time horizons. The results show that the effects of both positive and negative inflation shocks on gold price are symmetric in the short-run, but in the long run, the effect of positive inflation shocks on gold price are more than negative shocks. The results of the inflationary coverage of foreign currency show that the effects of the positive and negative inflation shocks on it are asymmetric in the short-run and long-run; while these effects are symmetric for stocks in both short- and long-term. Furthermore, stocks is a proper hedge against inflation in the long run and not only it maintains purchasing power, but also it increases value of investors’ assets. Moreover, the inflationary coverage of foreign currency and gold are the same and less than rising inflation, but exchange rate is a hedge in the short-run and gold plays the role of hedge against inflation in the long-run.
Esfandiar Jahangard; parisa mohajeri; leila momeni
Abstract
The subject of labor force productivity changes during business cycles has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomics, which has gained less attention among studies focusing on Iranian Economy. In the study, we have aimed at empirically examining the role that labor force productivity fluctuations ...
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The subject of labor force productivity changes during business cycles has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomics, which has gained less attention among studies focusing on Iranian Economy. In the study, we have aimed at empirically examining the role that labor force productivity fluctuations play during economic cycles in the Iran using time-series data for the period of 2005Q2-2015Q1 by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. In order to estimate relations, we have separated fluctuation and trend components based on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Based on our results, it is suggested that labor force productivity moves in alignment with GDP and increases in expansion periods and decreases in recession periods which indicate pro-cyclical behavior of labor force productivity in Iranian Economy. Second, in the last seasons of an expansion period, the role of labor force productivity fluctuations decreases in gross domestic product fluctuations which is along with the theory.
Abolfazl Pasbani; ali cheshomi; meisam pileforoush
Abstract
This article has surveyed effect of political institutions on performance of oil funds and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in resource-dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in political institutions, cause differences in performance ...
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This article has surveyed effect of political institutions on performance of oil funds and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in resource-dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in political institutions, cause differences in performance of oil funds in Iran, Norway and Saudi Arabia. In situations that institutional framework causes maximization of benefits with long-term decisions, the mechanism of oil funds are successful. And in situations that institutional framework causes maximization of benefits with short-term decisions, the mechanism of oil funds are not successful. Institutional framework in full democracies and paternalism authoritarian regimes lead to the long-term decisions, but institutional framework in flawed democracies leads to short-term decisions. It seems that in Iran, motivations implicit in institutional structure push politicians to take short-term decisions instead of long-term decisions, such that politicians are inclined to maximize their own interests and consider short-term period. That has been of the most important factor in failure of Iran's Foreign Currency Reserves Account or National Development Fund.
Mohammad Reza Farzaneh; Ali Bagheri; Mohammadhossein Ramezani Ghavamabadi
Abstract
Unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater resources has resulted in increasing spread of economic, social and ecological consequences in Iran. Particularly, since the adoption of "Protection of groundwater resources of Iran Act" (passed in 1966), numerous policies and laws with the aim of protecting groundwater ...
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Unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater resources has resulted in increasing spread of economic, social and ecological consequences in Iran. Particularly, since the adoption of "Protection of groundwater resources of Iran Act" (passed in 1966), numerous policies and laws with the aim of protecting groundwater resources have been passed and enforced; however, the level of groundwater table has been continuously decreasing while the number of prohibited plains have been increasing. So, the question arises that where the problem is originated from; and despite nearly 50 years of policy-making, legislation and implementation, why are groundwater resources not protected, but the situation has been getting worse and worse. Relying on the premises of institutional theories, the present paper will address the context and features of water bodies based on three components of mental models, structures, and the system of benefit and power distribution. The results show that the components of institutional environment are inconsistent with the context of legality.
Mansour Zarra Nezhad; Elaheh Ansari; Masood Khoda Panah
Abstract
Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can ...
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Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can be of remarkable help to discover fundamental problems, set goals, and choose the best way to achieve them. Islamic economy could be one of these areas. In this study, through following scientific principles, the composite index of Islamic economy in Iran from 1995 to 2012 was defined and estimated. In fact, it is for the first time that a long-term performance of a country is examined. The results show that the absolute value of the index has not changed significantly in the course of 18 years under study, and there have been fluctuations in a short run. Reducing unemployment and inflation rates, promoting the culture of the using non-interest-bearing deposits (Gharz-ol-Hasane), as well as reducing bank interest rate comprise strategies for improving this indicator in Iran.
Esmaeil Mirza’i; Teymour Mohammadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some ...
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In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some of the most important macroeconomic variables over the period 2002-2013. Variables of this research are the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans as the index for quality of loan portfolio of banks, GDP growth, real lending interest rate, monetary base and growth rate of banks’ loan. We find that a positive shock to real lending interest rate and loan growth rate improve the quality of loan portfolio of banks. However, printing more money by central bank (a positive shock to monetary base) leads to a drop in portfolio quality, while a positive shock to GDP growth rate doesn’t have a significant effect on NPLs. On the other hand, the feedback effect from NPLs on macroeconomic variables is verified, as a positive shock to NPLs (worsening the quality of loan portfolio) causes to exacerbate economic recession, to increase monetary base, and to decrease loan growth rate significantly, but it doesn’t have any significant effect on real lending interest rate .
Esfandiar Jahangard; Afrouz Azadikhah Jahromi
Volume 13, Issue 51 , January 2014, , Pages 81-111
Abstract
In this paper we identify the production chains of Iranian economy by using average propagation length (APL) index. In our imprical investigation, we have applied the mentioned methodology to the 2000 input-output table of Iran. In order to obtain a clear overview of the production chains in Iran, the ...
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In this paper we identify the production chains of Iranian economy by using average propagation length (APL) index. In our imprical investigation, we have applied the mentioned methodology to the 2000 input-output table of Iran. In order to obtain a clear overview of the production chains in Iran, the table was aggregated to 6 sector level. At first we calculate the backward and forward linkages and APLs, and then we visualize the production chains for Iranian economy. As a second application we have considered the linkages, APLs and production chains at a more detailed level. For this purpose, we have used the 28-sector classification. The results for the backward and forward linkages of each sector indicate that industry and electricity, gas and water supply are known as key sectors. Also it was found that largest average forward APL value belongs to agriculture and mining, and smallest value belongs to services and construction. Likewise, the largest average backward APL value is observed for construction and agriculture, and smallest value oserverd for mining and services. It should also be noted that in both applications mining located at the beginning of the production chain o Iranian economy.
Hassan Heydari; HamidReza Faalju; Fatemeh Karami
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 151-176
Abstract
The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran, that has high degree of volatility, ...
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The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran, that has high degree of volatility, is exchange rate uncertainty.The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on price index in the TSE for the period of 1994-2009 using monthly data. In this regard, first, an index of exchange rate uncertainty is calculated using EGARCH models. Then, in order to obtain the relationship between uncertainty in real exchange rate and the stock price index, Bounds test approach is applied to the relationship between level data. The results show that in both long-run and short-run, there is a negative and significant relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices. Moveover, real exchange rate uncertainty has a non-significant negative effect on stock price in short-run. In the long-run, the relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and stock price is negative and significant. The results of Granger causality test also show that bidirectional causality exists between the real exchange rate and real exchange rate uncertainty in the short-run. While we could not find such an interactive relationship between other variables in the short-run, an indirect causality exists from exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty to the stock price in the long-run.
Majid Sameti; Hassan Karnameh Haghighi
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 121-145
Abstract
This study aims primarily at investigating the impact of macroeconomic instability on lending behavior of banking sector in Iran using data on commercial banks and macroeconomic instability from 1974 to 2009. Our results under the Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Modeling framework show that ...
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This study aims primarily at investigating the impact of macroeconomic instability on lending behavior of banking sector in Iran using data on commercial banks and macroeconomic instability from 1974 to 2009. Our results under the Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Modeling framework show that bank lending has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic instability. In other words, the long-term increase in macroeconomic instability indicators would be associated with reduction in commercial bank lending. In addition, an increase in the natural logarithm of assets of commercial banks (as a proxy of bank size), have a significant effect on the lending behavior of commercial banks. The results also show that although the ratio of deposits to capital and lending behavior of commercial banks are interacted with each other in the long run, but in the short term the error of balance does not adjust itself. Simply saying, although the ratio of deposits to capital has a long-run effect on the lending behavior of commercial banks but it is not affected by lending behavior of commercial banks. In fact, the variable of deposits to capital ratio is weak exogenous when compared with other variables.
Ali Hussein Samadi; Naghmeh Zare Haghighi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 123-152
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in Iran. We use an asymmetric error correction model within a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) framework during 1991-2010. Contrary to previous ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in Iran. We use an asymmetric error correction model within a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) framework during 1991-2010. Contrary to previous studies on Iranian economy, the results show that synchronization hypothesis with asymmetric adjustment towards long run equilibrium is confirmed between government revenues and expenditures. The policy implication of the results is that the government should simultaneously rise revenues and decrease spending in order to control the budget deficits.
firuz fallahi; Parviz Mohamadzadeh; Ali Rezazadeh; Siavash Mohammadpoor; Mohammad Hossein Shararkhah
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 117-140
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the parity rate shocks in U.S. Dollar and Euro against Iranian Rial on the output and price in Iran during 2000:3-2007:3 period. For this purpose, the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar and Euro value against Iranian Rial have been ...
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The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the parity rate shocks in U.S. Dollar and Euro against Iranian Rial on the output and price in Iran during 2000:3-2007:3 period. For this purpose, the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar and Euro value against Iranian Rial have been defined as the difference between actual real exchange rate and fitted values of real exchange rate estimated by using a Markov Switching approach. Using Johansen’s co-integration test, the existence of long-run relationship between the variables of the model has been examined and both of the Lambda Max and Lambda Trace statistics confirmed that there is at least one co-integration vector between variables of the two main models of this study. Finally, asymmetric effects of U.S. Dollar and Euro shocks during positive and negative shocks on output and price level has been tested using LR test. The results show that positive and negative shocks of U.S. Dollar have an asymmetric effect on output and price level. The results also show that the fluctuations in the value of Euro against Iranian Rial have an asymmetric effect on price level and a symmetric effect on output.
Mohammadali Feizpour; Mohammadreza Dehghanpour
Volume 11, Issue 41 , July 2011, , Pages 71-95
Abstract
The relationship between industrial structure and productivity, particularly when
the former influences the latter, is the traditional view that large firms in more
concentrated industries have the resources to make R&D investments, bring about
technical advances and ultimately raise industrial ...
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The relationship between industrial structure and productivity, particularly when
the former influences the latter, is the traditional view that large firms in more
concentrated industries have the resources to make R&D investments, bring about
technical advances and ultimately raise industrial productivity. On the other hand,
small firms in competitive industries may lack the resources to invest in innovation
and make productivity gains.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between industrial
structure and labour productivity for manufacturing firms in Iran during the years of
the Second Development Plan. Concentration ratio, barriers to entry and minimum
efficient scale are considered as measures of industrial structure and labour
productivity wich is defined as the ratio of total output to total labour force. The data
for empirical analysis consist of 12000 manufacturing firms, aggregated at 23, 60
and 135 of 2, 3 and 4-digit industries respectively. The results suggest that industry
structure, measured by minimum efficient scale has a positive and significant effect
in the labour productivity. This finding suggests that Iranian manufacturing plants
are sub-optimal and it is possible to increase labour productivity by achieving
minimum efficient scale.
Syamak Mashayekhi; Mehrdad Hajizadeh Fallah
Volume 11, Issue 40 , April 2011, , Pages 131-154
Abstract
Abstract
The poultry industry is very important in Iran in comparison with other animal husbandry industries for its technical, economic and hygienic aspects. Despite the attempts made by the government to support this industry, still its products ...
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Abstract
The poultry industry is very important in Iran in comparison with other animal husbandry industries for its technical, economic and hygienic aspects. Despite the attempts made by the government to support this industry, still its products is not confidentially sufficient for growing domestic demands. Among the various factors, which influence the poultry industry, the preparation and relevant pricing of feed inputs are very critical issues.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the short-run and long-run of the effective factors in chicken meat market in Iran during The monthly data of 1993-2010 using Johansen-Juselius technique and VEC mechanism. The results showed that the price of poultry feed inputs have positive effects on price of chicken meat in both short-run and long run period. The results also indicated the high adjustment speed in the model, which reveals that chicken meat market could be regulated in the short-run period by appropriate policies.
Javid Bahrami; Maryam Farshchi
Volume 11, Issue 40 , April 2011, , Pages 185-211
Abstract
This paper examines the incidence of Dutch Disease symptoms in the agriculture sector of Iran, by applying SVAR modeling to quarterly data of twenty years span, from1367-1386 our findings do not reveal any significant relation between oil prices, and value added of agriculture sector, but indicate a ...
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This paper examines the incidence of Dutch Disease symptoms in the agriculture sector of Iran, by applying SVAR modeling to quarterly data of twenty years span, from1367-1386 our findings do not reveal any significant relation between oil prices, and value added of agriculture sector, but indicate a significant negative effect of oil price on the relative price of agricultural products. Therefore, the incidence of Dutch Disease cannot be rejected. Although it seems that protective measures, in some extent, have been succeeded in insulating the production from harmful effects of decrease in the relative prices, but these measures, in no way will ensure the future development of the agriculture sector.