نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار اقتصاد، گروه علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه گنبدکاووس، گنبدکاووس، ایران
2 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت کارآفرینی، دانشگاه گنبدکاووس، گنبدکاووس، ایران
چکیده
پیچیدگی اقتصادی یک مفهوم نسبتا جدید است که در سالهای اخیر برای ارائه معیاری جامع از ویژگیهای تولید کشورها گسترش‌یافته است. پیچیدگی اقتصادی نه‌تنها ساختارهای تولیدی کشورها را توضیح میدهد، بلکه به بررسی تفاوتهای درآمدی و رشد بین کشورها نیز کمک میکند. هدف مقاله حاضر، تکمیل ادبیات اخیر در مورد اثرات کلان اقتصادی پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی برای نمونه کشورهای N-11 در دوره 2020-2000 و با استفاده از شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی توسعه‌یافته توسط هیدالگو و هاسمن (2009) است. آزمونهای تشخیصی موید فرضیههای ناهمگونی ضرایب شیب و وابستگی مقطعی جملات اخلال است که برای این منظور از دو تخمینزن میانگین گروهی با اثرات همبسته مشترک پانل (CCEPMG) پسران (2006) و تخمینزن میانگین گروهی با اثرات همبسته مشترک (CCEMG) چودیک و پسران (2015) استفاده میشود. یافتهها نشان داده است که پیچیدگی اقتصادی یکی از عوامل مهم و کلیدی برای رشد اقتصادی در بلندمدت است. بااین‌حال، تاثیر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی در کوتاهمدت معنادار نشده است که بیانگر زمان‌بر بودن تاثیر تحولات ساختاری تولید بر رشد اقتصادی است. سایر متغیرهای کنترلی تحقیق شامل سرمایه انسانی، سرمایهگذاری، کیفیت نهادی و نرخ تورم نیز مورد تایید آماری قرارگرفته است. بر این اساس کشورها باید برای تولید کالاها و خدمات جدید بر استراتژی‌های بلندمدت تمرکز کنند و از اثر خنثی کوتاهمدت پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی آگاه باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
پژم، سید مهدی و سلیمیفر، مصطفی (1394)، بررسی تاثیر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی در 42 کشور برتر در تولید علم. مجله اقتصاد و توسعه منطقهای. 2(10)، 38-16.
رحیمی، فرشته، سایه میری، علی، قاسمیان، نرگس و شایان، عبدالله. (1400). اثر شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای MENAT (2017_2008). فصلنامه اقتصاد کاربردی، 11(36)، 1-15.
فاضلی، زهرا و خداپرست پیرسرایی، یونس. (1398). ارزیابی اثرات پیچیدگی صادراتی کالا و آزادی اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی منتخبی از کشورهای صادرکننده نفت. فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 19(75)، 189-149.
Acemoglu, D. & Robinson, J. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Crown.
Acemoglu, D. Gallego, F. A. & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Institutions, human capital, and development. Annual Review of Economics, 6(1), 875–912.
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth. Handbook of economic growth, 1, 385-472.
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., & Thaicharoen, Y. (2003). Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises, and growth. Journal of monetary economics, 50(1), 49-123.
Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60, 323–351.
Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1998a). Capital accumulation and innovation as complementary factors in long-run growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 111–130.
Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1998b). Endogenous growth theory. MIT Press.
Ajide, F. M. (2022). Economic complexity and entrepreneurship: Insights from Africa. International Journal of Development Issues, 21(3), 367–388.
Albeaik, S., Kaltenberg, M., Alsaleh, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Measuring the knowledge intensity of economies with an improved measure of economic complexity. ArXiv preprint arXiv: 1707.05826.
Andrés, J., & Hernando, I. (1999). Does inflation harm economic growth? Evidence from the OECD. In The costs and benefits of price stability (pp. 315-348). University of Chicago Press.
Antonietti, R., & Franco, C. (2021). From FDI to economic complexity: a panel Granger causality analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 225-239.
Archibugi, D., & Coco, A. (2005). Measuring technological capabilities at the country level: A survey and a menu for choice. Research policy, 34(2), 175-194.
Balsalobre, S. J. P., Verduras, C. L., & Lanchas, J. D. (2017). Measuring the Economic Complexity at the sub-national level using international and interregional trade. In Nineteenth Annual Conference of European Trade Study Group.
Barro, R. J. (2003). Determinants of economic growth in a panel of countries. Annals of economics and finance, 4, 231-274.
Bastos, F. R., & Wang, K. (2015): Long-Run Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Role of Economic Diversification and Complexity. Regional Economic Outlook 67-77
Buccellato, T., & Corò, G. (2020). Relatedness, economic complexity, and convergence across European regions. In Capitalism, global change, and sustainable development (pp. 149-167). Springer, Cham.
Chávez, J. C., Mosqueda, M. T., & Gómez-Zaldívar, M. (2017). Economic complexity and regional growth performance: Evidence from the Mexican Economy. Review of Regional Studies, 47(2), 201-219.
Chrid, N., Saafi, S., & Chakroun, M. (2021). Export upgrading and economic growth: a panel cointegration and causality analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 12(2), 811-841.
Chudik, A. Pesaran, M. H., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels. The Econometrics Journal, 14(1), C45-C90.
Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2013). Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a survey. CAFE Research Paper, (13.15).
Chudik, A., & Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors. Journal of econometrics, 188(2), 393-420.
Coniglio, N. D., Lagravinese, R., & Vurchio, D. (2016). Production sophisticatedness and growth: Evidence from Italian provinces before and during the crisis, 1997–2013. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy, and Society, 9(2), 423-442.
Cristelli, M., Tacchella, A., & Pietronero, L. (2015). The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity. Plos one, 10(2), e0117174.
Demiral, M. (2016) Knowledge, Complexity and Economic Growth: Multi-country Evidence by Development Stages. Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, Vol. VI, Issue 1.
Domini, G. (2022). Patterns of specialization and economic complexity through the lens of universal exhibitions, 1855-1900. Explorations in Economic History, 83, 101421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101421
Fazeli, Z., & Khodaparast Pirsarayi, Y. (2019). The Effects of Exports Sophistication and Economic Freedom on Economic Growth in Select Oil-Exporting Countries. Economics Research, 19(75), 149-189. doi: 10.22054/joer.2019.11634 [In Persian]
Felipe, J., Kumar, U., Abdon, A., & Bacate, M. (2012). Product complexity and economic development. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(1), 36-68.
Gala, P., Rocha, I., & Magacho, G. (2018). The structuralist revenge: economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development. Brazilian journal of political economy, 38, 219-236.
Goldman, S. (2007). BRICS and beyond. Goldman Sachs Global Economics Group.
Güneri, B., & Yalta, A. Y. (2021). Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries? Bulletin of Economic Research, 73(3), 411-431.
Hartmann, D., Guevara, M. R., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Linking economic complexity, institutions, and income inequality. World development, 93, 75-93.
Hausmann, R., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The network structure of economic output. Journal of economic growth, 309-342.
Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., & Simoes, A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press.
Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., & Simoes, A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press.
Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of economic growth, 12(1), 1-25.
Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.
Hidalgo, C. A., Balland, P. A., Boschma, R., Delgado, M., Feldman, M., Frenken, K., & Zhu, S. (2018). The principle of relatedness. In Unifying Themes in Complex Systems IX: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Complex Systems 9 (pp. 451-457). Springer International Publishing.
Hidalgo, C. A., Klinger, B., Barabási, A. L., & Hausmann, R. (2007). The product space conditions the development of nations. Science, 317(5837), 482-487.
Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The strategy of economic development. Yale University Press.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003) Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
Lall, S. (1992). Technological capabilities and industrialization. World development, 20(2), 165-186.
Lall, S. (2000). The Technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985‐98. Oxford development studies, 28(3), 337-369.
Lapatinas, A. (2016). Economic complexity and human development: A note. Economics Bulletin, 36(3), 1441-1452.
Lapatinas, A. (2019). The effect of the Internet on economic sophistication: An empirical analysis. Economics Letters, 174, 35-38.
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., and Chu, J., (2002), Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108, pp1-24.
Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American economic review, 942-963.
Lo, G. D., Marcelin, I., Bassène, T., & Sène, B. (2022). The Russo-Ukrainian war and financial markets: The role of dependence on Russian commodities. Finance Research Letters, 50, 103194.
Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3–42.
Menegaki, A. N. (2019). The ardl method in the energy-growth nexus field: best implementation strategies. Economies, 7(4), 1-16.
Nabi, A. A., Tunio, F. H., Azhar, M., Syed, M. S., & Ullah, Z. (2022). Impact of information and communication technology, financial development, and trade on economic growth: empirical analysis on N11 countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1-18. DOI:10.1007/s13132-022-00890-6
Nathaniel, S. P., Ekeocha, D. O., & Nwulu, N. (2022). Quantile estimation of ecological footprint and economic complexity in emerging economies: The moderating role of increasing energy consumption. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(22), 33856-33871. DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18397-z
Nguyen, C. P., Nguyen, B., Tung, B. D., & Su, T. D. (2021). Economic complexity and entrepreneurship density: A non-linear effect study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173, 121107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121107
Nguyen, C. P., Schinckus, C., & Su, T. D. (2020). The drivers of economic complexity: International evidence from financial development and patents. International Economics, 164, 140-150. DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2020.09.004
Nonaka, I. (1994). A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organization science, 5(1), 14-37.
Ourens, G. (2013). Can the Method of Reflections help predict future growth? (No. 2013008). Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
Pazham, S. M., & Salimifar, M. (2016). An Examination of Economic Complexity Index Effect on Economic Growth in the top 42 countries producing science. Journal Of Economics and Regional Development, 22(10), 16-38. doi: 10.22067/erd. v22i10.41690 [In Persian]
Pedroni, P. (1996). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Indiana University, 5, 1-45.
Pelinescu, E. (2015). The impact of human capital on economic growth. Procedia Economics and Finance, 22, 184-190
Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogenous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113.
Pesaran, M. H., & Tosetti, E. (2011). Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 161(2), 182-202.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634.
Pesaran, M.H. and Y. Shin (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models, Economics Letters, 85.
Poncet, S., & de Waldemar, F. S. (2013). Economic complexity and growth: evidence from China. Revue economique, 64(3), 495-503.
Rahimi, F., Sayehmiri, A., Ghasemian, N., Shayan, A. (2021). The Effect of Economic Complexity Index on Economic Growth in MENAT Countries (2008-2017). Iranian Journal of Applied Economics, 11(36), 1-15. Doi: 10.30495/JAE.2021.18181 [In Persian]
Rodrik, D. (2014). The past, present, and future of economic growth. Challenge, 57(3), 5- 39.
Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: the primacy of institutions over geography DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2020.09.004and integration in economic development. Journal of economic growth, 9(2), 131-165.
Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002–1037.
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 71–102.
Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9(1), 86–136.
Rosenstein-Rodan, P. N. (1943). Problems of industrialization of eastern and south-eastern Europe. The Economic Journal, 53(210/211), 202–211.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
Stojkoski, V., & Kocarev, L. (2017). The Relationship between Growth and Economic Complexity: Evidence from Southeastern and Central Europe. University Library of Munich, Germany.
Tacchella, A., Mazzilli, D., & Pietronero, L. (2018). A dynamical systems approach to gross domestic product forecasting. Nature Physics, 14(8), 861-865.
Turco, A. L., & Maggioni, D. (2020). The knowledge and skill content of production complexity. Research Policy, 104059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.104059
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
Yildirim, M. (2014). Diversifying growth in light of economic complexity. Brookings Blum Roundtable 2014. Session VI: where can enclave projects take us? Harvard University.
Yu, J., Ju, F., Wahab, M., Agyekum, E. B., Matasane, C., & Uhunamure, S. E. (2022). Estimating the Effects of Economic Complexity and Technological Innovations on CO2 Emissions: Policy Instruments for N-11 Countries. Sustainability, 14(24), 16856. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142416856
Zhu, S., & Li, R. (2017). Economic complexity, human capital, and economic growth: empirical research based on cross-country panel data. Applied Economics, 49(38), 3815-3828.
)