Jaber Abdi; Mohammd Taghi Gilak Hakim Abadi
Abstract
Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this ...
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Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this study is to introduce and explain the theoretical basis of the economic vulnerability index to reach a suitable structure for evaluating this index in Iran and other middle-income countries. The results of this study show that the situation of Iran in terms of this indicator among the 8 countries surveyed in the period between 1995 and 2012 was not satisfactory, in a way that the rank of Iran in most of this period (13 years) was higher than the average 8 countries. Also, the trend of this indicator is positive and rising for Iran in this period. Analysis of Economic factors affecting vulnerability show that in this period, weakness of export diversification was the most important item that negatively affected the level of economic vulnerability in Iran in comparison with other selected countries.
Nikzad Manteghi; Mahdi Taghavi
Volume 8, Issue 29 , July 2008, , Pages 181-204
Abstract
Concurrent with the acceleration of international export & import, there is a tendency toward the Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) among all countries, including the Asians. Indeed, they have a twice propensity of joining WTO and making up the regional contracts at the same time. By now about ...
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Concurrent with the acceleration of international export & import, there is a tendency toward the Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) among all countries, including the Asians. Indeed, they have a twice propensity of joining WTO and making up the regional contracts at the same time. By now about 97% of world trade belongs to such countries which are the members of at least one PTA, comparing to their share of 72% in 1990.
PTA is an agreement between several countries which their tariffs on produced commodities less than what the non-members should afford. Asia and Middle East are among the regions of which have such a contracts; either bilateral or regional. The point among the Islamic neighbors such as Iran, Pakistan and Turkey is very familiar.
In this study, using the methodology of SMART model, we check the effects of Trade Creation (TC) and Trade Diversion (TD) of Iran for either Pakistan or Turkey and vice versa.
Esfandiar Jahangard
Volume 6, Issue 23 , January 2007, , Pages 183-206
Abstract
This study analyzes the relevance of the vehicle industry in Iran's Economy with emphasis on the production. In this study, applying Jensen and West (1986) and West (1993) methodologies based on Iran's 1379 Input –Output table, the overall results show that the direct and indirect contribution ...
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This study analyzes the relevance of the vehicle industry in Iran's Economy with emphasis on the production. In this study, applying Jensen and West (1986) and West (1993) methodologies based on Iran's 1379 Input –Output table, the overall results show that the direct and indirect contribution of the value added of vehicle industry in entire economy is 2.4 percent.
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Volume 5, Issue 16 , April 2005, , Pages 183-211
Samira motaghi
Volume 14, Issue 55 , January 2015, , Pages 185-205
Abstract
The current study, drawing on mathematical modeling, aimed at uncovering factors influencing life expectency (as a proxy of health) among OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) countries. More specifically, this article tried to examine health criteria set in the Muslim world in homogeneous income ...
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The current study, drawing on mathematical modeling, aimed at uncovering factors influencing life expectency (as a proxy of health) among OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) countries. More specifically, this article tried to examine health criteria set in the Muslim world in homogeneous income countries. In doing so, we initially depict a conceptual model, and then investigate the various factors affecting health issues by the use of a generalized model developed by Grossman in those countries. The findings of the study ( in a period from 1995 to 2009) revealed that the effective factors were the varibles of GDP per capita, the ratio of total health costs in GDP, out of pocket, malnutrition, and the rates of adolescent fertility. That is, the medical, economic, social, and environmental factors were reported as those influencing the healthy issues in these countries. Moreover, except for upper middle average income Muslim countries, the health conditions of homogenous groups of income ( i.e. low income, lower-middle-income, middle-income and high-income) have been improved by reducing the rate of teen childbearing variables (social development) and risk of malnutrition (living conditions), though they have not been affected by these two factors. The implications of this study discussed the growing income trend with increasing GDP per capita and the ratio of health spending to gdp (economic inputs), and this fact, in turn, shows the effects of the economic inputs on the improvement of health status in Muslim countries.
Seyed Mohammadreza Seyed Nourani; abass shakeri; amir khadem alizadeh; reza vafaee yeganeh
Abstract
Productivity is a behavioral trait that relies on relationship optimization and interaction between internal and external factors. Productivity derives its vitality from the fact that when it increases, total output can increase without increasing the factors involved in production. This study aimed ...
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Productivity is a behavioral trait that relies on relationship optimization and interaction between internal and external factors. Productivity derives its vitality from the fact that when it increases, total output can increase without increasing the factors involved in production. This study aimed to evaluate productivity (efficiency and effectiveness) of select banks in Islamic Republic of Iran’s Interest-Free Banking system. By using a numeric index method, indices of labor productivity, Intermediary inputs productivity, capital productivity and total factor productivity were measured in select commercial banks with and without considering effectiveness factor. Our findings suggest that average growth of labor productivity, capital and intermediate consumption in selected banks in the period under review was descending, the average productivity growth of deposits in banks in the study period was 0.2% and average total factor productivity growth without and with equivalent effectiveness indicators were 1.82 and -4.2% respectively.
Farzad Asghari; Farid Ahmadi
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present a hybrid model to evaluate performance of loan portfolio of banking system regarding loan repayment status and to forecast credit status of loan applicants. At first stage, we have taken credit granting management approach in order to cluster and rank 100,224 loans ...
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The aim of this paper is to present a hybrid model to evaluate performance of loan portfolio of banking system regarding loan repayment status and to forecast credit status of loan applicants. At first stage, we have taken credit granting management approach in order to cluster and rank 100,224 loans granted by Karafarini Omid Fund. All the data on the loans granted to clients was extracted from core banking software of the Fund. Because of having access to this valuable and valid dataset, qualitative data collection methods are not used. In the first section of paper, a type of robust principal component analysis (ROBPCA) was utilized to classify the clients. Then, the eigenvector derived from ROBPCA was used as input to a two-step K-means clustering algorithm. Then, to propose a model to forecast credit status of applicants prior to granting loans, support vector machine (SVM) and artificial genetic neural networks were used. The results obtained from the applicants’ credit status forecasting showed that the model based on the artificial genetic neural networks with the mean-square error of 0.23 and %78 coefficient of determination leads to more accurate forecasting than support vector machine. Therefore, the proposed model for forecasting the applicants’ credit status can predict their performance with relative accurately. A new method in the form of data mining software provides credit institutions with the possibility of predicting applicants’ credit regarding loan repayments.
Hamid Amadeh; Mohammad Asiaee; Majid Koopahi
Volume 7, Issue 24 , April 2007, , Pages 187-209
Abstract
In economic studies of cooperatives, little attention has been paid to the different economic behaviors of cooperative and profit maximizer firms.There is a rich theoretical literature of cooperation theory which indicates that if the society wishes to catch the benefits of the ...
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In economic studies of cooperatives, little attention has been paid to the different economic behaviors of cooperative and profit maximizer firms.There is a rich theoretical literature of cooperation theory which indicates that if the society wishes to catch the benefits of the cooperation, the coops must ignore profit maximizing behavior .Instead,they must attempt to maximize their own and their members' welfare.In this study, the economic behavior of the Iran's small cheese coops were analysed.For this purpose ,a panel data of 7 coops for 1995-2003 period were used.Results showed that these coops were profit maximizer firms and not cooperative ones, and hence the producers who deliver their raw milk to them, and consumers of their produced cheese didn't make benefit from the advantages of a real cooperation behavior in milk processing industry. Besides results show that analysed coops have not full efficiency in applying fuel and raw milk factors.
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Volume 5, Issue 17 , July 2005, , Pages 189-207
Mohsen Khezri; Bahram Sahabi; Kazem Yavari; Hassan Heydari
Volume 15, Issue 57 , July 2015, , Pages 193-228
Abstract
Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem ...
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Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is one of these results. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of determinants of inflation in Iranian economy and forecasting inflation, instead of using FAVAR model with constant coefficients, we have employed TVP-FAVAR models and inflation has been modeled. In this model, the variables of GDP growth, growth of the monetary base, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates are considered as the main variables, and to estimate the non-observable variables of speculation section return, variables in the overall classification are modeled. Based on the results, the relationship between the variables change over time and conditions prevailing in the economy is effective on the influence of model variables on each other.
Maryam Khalili Araghi
Volume 6, Issue 20 , April 2006, , Pages 193-214
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Volume 5, Issue 18 , October 2005, , Pages 193-215
Mahmoud Motavaseli; Farshad Momeni; rozita Lajevardi; mohamad majid ranjbar
Abstract
Many years have passed since the adoption of planning mechanism in the development process of Iran. However, Iran has been failed to achieve this goal. The investigation of different levels of decision making in Iran shows that two factors are among the main reasons that lead the planning structure of ...
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Many years have passed since the adoption of planning mechanism in the development process of Iran. However, Iran has been failed to achieve this goal. The investigation of different levels of decision making in Iran shows that two factors are among the main reasons that lead the planning structure of Iran to be interwoven with a circle of underdevelopment. These two factors are lack of attention to the element of goal orientation, which means lack of proper understanding of concept of development in the planning process, and ignoring the element of rationality, which means not paying attention to the nature of man, his way of thinking and the collective identity of his decisions and actions. In this study, we have used the theoretical foundations of Goulet's classification of rationality and two criteria of coordination and commitment in the implementation of programs to study the interaction between rationality of different planning groups. Then, we have represented some experiences of decision-making in Iran to identify the dominant rationality in planning system of Iran. Our findings show that decision-making priorities in Iran have been derived from a reductionist interaction rather than an efficient interaction between rationalities and it was political rationality that dominated at various levels of decision-making.
seyyed mahdi moalemi
Volume 15, Issue 56 , April 2015, , Pages 195-224
Abstract
In order to design the Islamic model of progress, explicating the concept of economic development within the religious paradigm put forth in Quran is the most fundamental mission. Based on the findings of semiotics, each word in Quran has a semantic domain; and the concept and the meaning of the words ...
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In order to design the Islamic model of progress, explicating the concept of economic development within the religious paradigm put forth in Quran is the most fundamental mission. Based on the findings of semiotics, each word in Quran has a semantic domain; and the concept and the meaning of the words are best understood in the interrelation of their semantic domains. In the holy Quran, words like si’ah, tamakkun, tamattu’, imraan , fathul barakaat and hayaat tayyibah are the central words in the semantic field of economic development.Through a descriptive-analytic method and based on the techniques introduced in semiotics, this paper tries to explore and analyze the semantic elements and domain of the abovementioned vocabulary. The results of the research shows that the elements like sustainable growth, stability, sovereignty, social happiness, sustainable security, poverty alleviation, easy life, environment protection, saving and investment constitute the elements of the concept of economic development in the Quranic language.
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Volume 4, Issue 15 , January 2005, , Pages 197-238
Farshad Momeni; Ali Nikounesbati
Abstract
Studies show that not only there are important differences between old and new institutionalism, but also new Institutional economics is not a single body of thought. In addition, there are important differences in the assumptions, methods and subject matter between the new institutional economics and ...
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Studies show that not only there are important differences between old and new institutionalism, but also new Institutional economics is not a single body of thought. In addition, there are important differences in the assumptions, methods and subject matter between the new institutional economics and neoclassical economics. Overall, the institutional approach led to major changes in explanations and policy recommendation about development problems, of which, we can mention the emphasize on importance of informal institutions and organizations, the importance of the firm and importance of interdisciplinary approach. Comparing the approaches of institutional and neoclassical economics toward economic growth, as the most important index of development, shows that institutional approach has greater explanatory power and it suggests different policy recommendations. Recent institutional studies show that creation of a democratic and participatory institutional structure is the foundation of economic growth and a prerequisite for the implementation of right economic policies. However, special attention also should be given to poverty and inequality. Therefore, the move towards a democratic structure is the most important institutional reform that should be done in Iran. This is the only practical way to reduce inequality and achieve sustained growth in the country.
Abbas Ali Aboonoori; Hiva Shiveh
Volume 6, Issue 22 , October 2006, , Pages 205-228
Abstract
In this paper our intention is to introduce some effective variables on petrol consuming, and demand function for petrol in Iran. Also we want to show why different consumer policies can't change demand for petrol on optimal manner. This is done by using statistical and econometrics analyses, we estimate ...
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In this paper our intention is to introduce some effective variables on petrol consuming, and demand function for petrol in Iran. Also we want to show why different consumer policies can't change demand for petrol on optimal manner. This is done by using statistical and econometrics analyses, we estimate the demand for petrol and then show that which one of exogenous variable like price of petrol, growth of population, number of vehicles and growth national income have had more effective on stimulating of demand for petrol in Iran during 1968 to 2002. That is there is very small relation between price and demand for petrol; also there is very good relation between demand for petrol and three parameters in our results.
Habib Shahbazi; Hossein Moradimokhles
Abstract
In economic growth and development literature, the role of human capital and its development is always considered with great importance. One of the most important types of education in human capital creation is primary (elementary and secondary) education, which is invested by public sector and since ...
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In economic growth and development literature, the role of human capital and its development is always considered with great importance. One of the most important types of education in human capital creation is primary (elementary and secondary) education, which is invested by public sector and since primary education has comprehensive role for society, it is also referred to as general education. Therefore, the role and contribution of public education on GDP and economic growth is one of the fundamental questions for economists in the field of education. There are always many questions about general education. For example, given the budgetary constraints, how much investment should be made in the field of public education? What is the impact of investment and budget allocation to this sector on economic growth? Does spending in public education has led to development of human capital? Do the educational conditions i.e. economies of scale in education and society conditions i.e. risk-taking of individuals affect the impact of general education on human development? These questions are addressed in this paper, with the focus on the effects of different risk-taking scenarios and economies of scale in education on human capital development and economic growth. In this research, we have further developed Teles and Andrade (2008) model to examines the contribution of government public expenditure on primary and secondary education (Ministry of Education) on economic growth in Iran based on various risk-taking and economies of scale in educational scenarios for year 2016. Based on our results, the average contribution of general education on economic growth was 1.141 percentage points with different exact values in different risk-aversion scenarios. But with decreasing risk aversion, primary education contribution on economic growth will increase. In different situations, the effect of general education on economic growth has always been positive but when there is a decreeing return on human capital in national production, there is a negative contribution for risky people. A 1.141 percentage point of primary education contribution to economic growth indicate that 13.7 percent of economic growth in year 2016 (3.8 percent) was the result of investing in primary (elementary and secondary) education.
Mohammadgholi Yousefi; Bahman Khadem
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to estimate disguised unemployment in Iran manufacturing industries. For this purpose, we have used a dynamic employment model. The labor requirement frontier was approximated by applying Frontier Analysis method and translog cost function. The model is applied to a panel ...
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The purpose of this paper is to estimate disguised unemployment in Iran manufacturing industries. For this purpose, we have used a dynamic employment model. The labor requirement frontier was approximated by applying Frontier Analysis method and translog cost function. The model is applied to a panel of nine groups of Iranian manufacturing industries based on two-digit ISIC classification for the period 1995-2012. We define disguised unemployment as the difference between optimal employment and actual employment. To find optimal employment we have used employment frontier function and we have defined optimal employment as the minimum labor requirement for a specified level of output. Our findings show that on average, disguised unemployment was more than 47 percent of total employments in manufacturing industries. However, this proportion was higher in group of “miscellaneous industries” (75 percent), followed by “nonmetallic minerals” (74/8 percent), but it was much lower in “textiles, apparel and leather industries” (2 percent) and “woods and furniture industries” (6 percent). In industries as important as “machinery” and “transport equipment”, disguised unemployment was around 58 percent. These findings seem reasonable, stemming probably from under-utilization of capacity in manufacturing industries.
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Volume 6, Issue 21 , July 2006, , Pages 209-228
Farzaneh Ahmadian Yazdi; Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi
Abstract
Financial development is a key determinant of economic growth and development. This is more important in the case of resource-rich developing countries; because if they achieve high level of financial development, they will get benefit from resources in order to access sustainable growth and development. ...
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Financial development is a key determinant of economic growth and development. This is more important in the case of resource-rich developing countries; because if they achieve high level of financial development, they will get benefit from resources in order to access sustainable growth and development. With regard to importance of this issue, the impact of financial development on conversion of natural resource rents into foreign capital in Iran has been studied during 1970-2014. The results of our ARDL model show that natural resources have positive effect on foreign capital in both short-run and long-run. Also, the results of rolling ARDL regression in the case of multi-dimension financial development index indicate that financial development has failed to materialize its potential effect to improve the impact of natural resources on foreign capital accumulation in both short-run and long-run. The outcome of regression based on single-dimension financial development indices suggests that some of these indices have been able to increase the positive effect of natural resources on foreign capital accumulation. However, there are no observable beneficial effects in the long-run. It seems that the lack of attention to financial development channels such as foreign financial liberalization, as well as financial repression during a long period of time, has been the main cause of this phenomenon in Iran.
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Volume 5, Issue 19 , January 2006, , Pages 211-233
Pooneh Eftekharian; Mostafa Salimifar
Volume 14, Issue 54 , October 2014, , Pages 213-238
Abstract
The first step to fight against poverty and inequalities reduction in line with development policy, is correct understanding and awareness of poverty situation. Due to this thread, this paper studies the relative poverty in urban areas of Kerman province during 1391 - 1385 and comparewith the whole ...
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The first step to fight against poverty and inequalities reduction in line with development policy, is correct understanding and awareness of poverty situation. Due to this thread, this paper studies the relative poverty in urban areas of Kerman province during 1391 - 1385 and comparewith the whole country. For this purpose, the relative poverty line and its indicators were determined and compared during the sample years. results show that the general trend of relative poverty in urban areas of Kerman province and the whole country has been upward with an exception in year 88 when compared with year 87 in Kerman. furthermore, the poverty line in urban areas of the country is higher than Kerman province during the period considered in this study. the average annual growth rate of poverty line in the urban areas of Kerman was 19 per cent when compared to 24 per cent in urban areas of the country. Although there also appears to be a downward trend in poverty in urban areas of Kerman province, the results shows that there has been an improvement in the poverty situation during the relevent period. an d�' T>(�V �Z > 1385 و مقایسه آن با کل کشور برمبنای 50 درصد و 66 درصد میانگین و میانه متوسط مخارج دهکهای مختلف خانوارها و سپس، محاسبه شاخصهای فقر مانند نسبت سرشمار، نسبت شکاف فقر و شاخص سن میپردازد. نتایج نشان میدهد، خط فقر نسبی در مناطق شهری استان کرمان بهاستثنای سال 1388 نسبت به سال 1387 و همچنین کل کشور طی سالهای مورد بررسی روند صعودی داشته است. همچنین در مجموع، خط فقر مناطق شهری کشور بالاتر از خط فقر مناطق شهری استان کرمان طی سالهای مورد بررسی بوده است، بهطوری که متوسط رشد سالیانه خط فقر در مناطق شهری استان کرمان، 19 درصد و در مناطق شهری کشور، 24 درصد بوده است، اما نتایج محاسبه شاخصهای فقر نشاندهنده روند نزولی فقر در مناطق شهری استان کرمان و بهبود وضعیت فقر طی دوره مورد بررسی است.
Firoozeh Azizi; Narges Moradkhani
Volume 7, Issue 26 , October 2007, , Pages 213-241
Abstract
Stock price index is one of the most important benchmark for measuring stock exchange operation in all of the world’s financial markets. In this paper, we study the effects of stock price index on money demand function for the period 1370-80.
In this Paper, we use two definitions for money, broad ...
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Stock price index is one of the most important benchmark for measuring stock exchange operation in all of the world’s financial markets. In this paper, we study the effects of stock price index on money demand function for the period 1370-80.
In this Paper, we use two definitions for money, broad or narrow definition. The results indicates that these two different definitions of money i.e. M1 and M2 are suitable variables in money demand function of Iran. In other words, both definitions establish a long-term stationary equilibrium relationship. The stock price index as one the variables in the demand function for money, has significant effects. The stock price change has two effects on money demand function which are: positive income effect and negative substitution effect.
Ghassem Mohsseni Demneh
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, , Pages 219-245
Abstract
As a response to critiques about the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Ross (1976) proposed Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as an alternative model with fewer assumptions, and use of multi risk factors affecting assets prices instead of one. This article will introduce a two stage method normally called ...
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As a response to critiques about the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Ross (1976) proposed Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as an alternative model with fewer assumptions, and use of multi risk factors affecting assets prices instead of one. This article will introduce a two stage method normally called Fama-Macbeth method, to test APT. Factors affecting assets prices can be choosed among macroeconomic variables, or by using statistical techniques. The way to estimate factor scores, factor loads, and risk premiums using these two methods is explained; and at the end, APT is tested using real data’s from Tehran Stock Exchange.
