The Economy of Iran
soheila parvin; abbas shakeri; samaneh naseri
Abstract
Abstract
Economic sanctions are a low-cost tool which replaces military action with high economic, political and human cost. The severity of the effects of sanction depends on the degree of the target economy dependency, international community cooperates with sanction, and the potential ability to ...
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Abstract
Economic sanctions are a low-cost tool which replaces military action with high economic, political and human cost. The severity of the effects of sanction depends on the degree of the target economy dependency, international community cooperates with sanction, and the potential ability to substitute domestic production with imports. If domestic supply is sufficiently resilient, sanctions act, such as an import substitution policy, can lead to higher growth and more employment. Otherwise, sanctions will act as lack of domestic supply. This study evaluates the counter sanction and well-Bing effects of sanction on basic goods whose rising prices affect living standards. We use a multiple choice model and logit function, the income and cost effects of sanctions as well as the impact of exchange rate changes on the price of basic goods on the welfare standard and the probability of households joining the poor group are considered. The results show that, due to the inelastic domestic supply, the possibility of substituting imports is limited, so the cost effects are dominant For the year 2019, in the effective exchange rate scenario, poverty growth is estimated about %2.2(about 1828 thousand people, and in the official exchange rate scenario, poverty growth is 3.1 percent (and about 2575 thousand People have joined the poor group).
The Economics of Technology, Energy and Sustainable Development
Abbas Assari Arani; saeid rostami
Abstract
This study examines the impact of energy security on the economic growth of the 10 selected energy exporting countries in the Middle East, by use of indicators, have been determined and explained. The benchmark model is based on a generalized version of Cobb Douglass’s production function. Ten ...
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This study examines the impact of energy security on the economic growth of the 10 selected energy exporting countries in the Middle East, by use of indicators, have been determined and explained. The benchmark model is based on a generalized version of Cobb Douglass’s production function. Ten measures of energy security have been used for the whole set of panels, using five concepts of energy security including, availability, accessibility, acceptability, cost- effectiveness and development capability. It has used the estimated- generalized leas squares (EGLS), and panel – corrected standard error(PCSE) to estimate its model in order to validate the results. The results show that there is no gap between energy production and consumption, national energy supply capacity, national energy structure, renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission in fossil energy consumption have had a positive impact on the economic growth of selected energy exporting countries in the Middle East. Also, the intensity of energy and the ratio of carbon dioxide emission to GDP have jointly had a negative impact on the economic growth of them. political stability has also been a vital factor in the economic growth of these countries and oil price have had a positive effect on the economic growth of them.
Financial Economics
Reza Talebloo; Mojtaba Bagheri Todeshki; mohammad mehdi bagheri todeshki
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of behavioral deviations on the pricing of financial assets with the assumption that sentiment is an important and relevant risk factor in the Iranian capital market. This paper also examines the effect of sentiment, momentum, size, value, and ...
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The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of behavioral deviations on the pricing of financial assets with the assumption that sentiment is an important and relevant risk factor in the Iranian capital market. This paper also examines the effect of sentiment, momentum, size, value, and market risk premium by estimating the Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Model (APT). In order to perform empirical analysis, the quarterly returns of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 1390-99 in the form of 18 stock exchange groups including 63 listed companies are used. To do this, two indicators of market turnover sentiment and sentiment effect have been used to estimate the sentiment index and by extending the Carhart model and considering two sentiment variables in the form of SAPM model, coefficients estimate by using Hausman-Taylor panel data method. The results of the model show that in the SAPM model, the sentiment variable is very important and significant and have a positive relationship with the average seasonal rate of return of different stock exchange groups.
Money and Monetary Economics
Mahdi Yazdani; Raana Shokouei Donighi
Abstract
Macroeconomic instability is a serious problem to real economic growth and sustainability. In this paper, based on the method of simultaneous equations in the panel data approach during the period 1998-2014, two methods have been used to investigate the effect of transparency on macroeconomic stability ...
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Macroeconomic instability is a serious problem to real economic growth and sustainability. In this paper, based on the method of simultaneous equations in the panel data approach during the period 1998-2014, two methods have been used to investigate the effect of transparency on macroeconomic stability in the selected emerging market countries. In the first method, two equations for central bank transparency and macroeconomic stability are considered. In the second method, to examine more precisely, the effect of central bank transparency on the variables that constitute stability, such as inflation, output gap and real exchange rate gap, three equations have been considered for the mentioned variables andthe effects of these variables on transparency have been studied. The results show that central bank transparency is one of the factors affecting macroeconomic stability. On the other hand, the square of central bank transparency index has a negative and significant relationship with macroeconomic stability. In addition, the central bank transparency index is inversely related to the inflation and the real exchange rate gap, hence central bank can decrease the gap of inflation and real exchange rate via increasing the transparency. Finally, there is not any interaction between central bank transparency and output gap. Duet to the positive effect of transparency of the central bank on macroeconomic stability, it is recommended that the central bank seriously pursues this goal while taking into account the successful experiences of countries around the world regarding transparency.
The Economy of Iran
Sahar Pournaghi Keikeleh; Kowsar Yousefi; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The Health Reform Plan was initiated in 2014 aiming to increase health utilization and to reduce the out-of-pocket payment. The plan was criticized by its macro inflationary effect and also, inducing health demand. This study evaluates the induced demand hypothesis using the utilization health datasets ...
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The Health Reform Plan was initiated in 2014 aiming to increase health utilization and to reduce the out-of-pocket payment. The plan was criticized by its macro inflationary effect and also, inducing health demand. This study evaluates the induced demand hypothesis using the utilization health datasets in 2008 (before the reform) and 2015 (after the reform). The data is collected every four years by the National Institute of Health. As the control group, we consider individuals who has access to
medical knowledge among their family members; these people are assumed not to suffer from the asymmetric information and not by the demand induced by their attending physician. Others who has no medical knowledge are the treatment group. We use Difference-in-Difference methodology. The robustness of results are tested using variety of subgroups and controlling for many observables. Results indicate that individuals without medical knowledge has an average 10% more referrals compared to those who have medical knowledge. Also, their per capita cost has been increased by 54%, which is equivalent to extra 10650 tomans, after the reform. Our results confirm that the reform has significantly induced demand.
Other innovative economic areas
Sayyed Mohammad Hoseini; Ramin. Khochiany
Abstract
One of the most important problems in forecasting economic phenomena is the lack of sufficient data or the existence of significant missing data in time series. In this paper, the time series data of GDP growth rate of 18 Middle Eastern and North African countries from 1980 to 2019 is modeled via a generalized ...
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One of the most important problems in forecasting economic phenomena is the lack of sufficient data or the existence of significant missing data in time series. In this paper, the time series data of GDP growth rate of 18 Middle Eastern and North African countries from 1980 to 2019 is modeled via a generalized network autoregressive method. In this set of data 13.42% of the total observations were missed. In the proposed method, random network whose nodes belong to those countries are considered. Then the autoregressive model of each node was constructed based on all data of its multi-stage neighboring nodes. Some parameters of the model can be depend on the node (local model) or can be considered the same for all network nodes (global model). The missing data are modeled by changing the weights of the network edges. The time series were predicted based on the constructed model. Ten thousand undirectional random networks and 16 models including 8 local and 8 global models on each network are considered. Out of 160,000 models made, the model with the least prediction error are selected as the best network and is used for final prediction. The lowest in-sample predictive error was obtained at a local network, which has 64 edges and the number of corresponding model parameters is 37. The model is compared with the classical models such as AR, GARCH and VAR. The results indicate the superiority of the proposed method in significantly reducing the prediction error over the other models.
The Economy of Iran
Ali Mazyaki; solaleh tavassoli; Mitra Babapour; Meysam Mazaheri; Anahita Hosseini; Mina Javid; Sahand Gharizadeh
Abstract
Although importance of considering capability approach in calculating poverty has been addressed in various studies, a major obstacle to achieving a measure like Alkire-Foster MPI in many countries is lack of integrated micro indicators. In this study, to tackle this challenge we suggest "repeated ...
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Although importance of considering capability approach in calculating poverty has been addressed in various studies, a major obstacle to achieving a measure like Alkire-Foster MPI in many countries is lack of integrated micro indicators. In this study, to tackle this challenge we suggest "repeated and random data generation" method using macro amount of the missing indicator. Moreover, we apply this method to calculate and break down acute poverty measure of Alkier and Foster in Iran. The results indicate that, using this method, we are able to achieve the desired level with a very high precision. In addition, by breaking down multidimensional poverty into three dimensions of health, education and standard of living, we show that during last four decades, the share of educational deprivation in MPI is always increasing and has transformed to the most effective indicator in acute multidimensional poverty. Finally, by examining the characteristics of poor households, it can be noted that households with acute poverty have gradually become older, smaller and less educated. Therefore, it seems that programs like subsidies to the entire society are no longer useful policy for poverty in Iran and it is recommended to improve targeting and work on educational deprivation.
The Economics of Technology, Energy and Sustainable Development
Ali Asghar Salem; Leyla Jabari; zahra bayat
Abstract
The goal of this study is to analyze the effect of its transportation infrastructure on the energy efficiency of the industry in the provinces of Iran. The rapid growth of industries in the world during the last few years has led to an increase in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.One of ...
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The goal of this study is to analyze the effect of its transportation infrastructure on the energy efficiency of the industry in the provinces of Iran. The rapid growth of industries in the world during the last few years has led to an increase in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.One of the factors affecting energy efficiency is transportation infrastructure, which, as the main capital of social development, can affect energy efficiency through various mechanisms. These infrastructures can have different effects on energy efficiency from the channels of the economy of scale, the effect of technology spillover and other external factors, and the effect of competition between production enterprises. A panel threshold model was applied to approximate the threshold effect of transportation infrastructure on industrial energy efficiency under the Real GDP by using the panel data of 31 provinces of Iran from 2006 to 2019 The results showed that the transportation infrastructures it has a non-linear effect on energy efficiency so that when the logarithm of real GDP is higher than the second threshold (15/66), transportation infrastructures significantly improve energy efficiency, and when the logarithm of GDP is lower than the first threshold (14/64). The expansion of this type of infrastructure reduces the energy efficiency of the industry, and between the two thresholds of transportation infrastructure, it does not affect the energy efficiency of the industry. In addition, technological progress and energy prices also have a positive and, significant effect on Industrial energy efficiency.
Financial Economics
mohammad feghikashani; javid bahrami; majid omidi
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of rule-based prudential policies on the banks competition in the deposit market. Using the imperfect competition structure and focusing on heterogeneous banks, we develop a partial equilibrium model, under which implications of how capital adequacy ratio regulation ...
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This paper investigates the effects of rule-based prudential policies on the banks competition in the deposit market. Using the imperfect competition structure and focusing on heterogeneous banks, we develop a partial equilibrium model, under which implications of how capital adequacy ratio regulation implemented either discriminatory between banks (micro) or non-discriminatory and uniformly for all banks (macro) will be analyzed. Among the features that are emphasized in this analytical model is the role of self-regulation of bank capital in building confidence in the banking network in a non-linear manner. This, in a range of capital adequacy ratios, has featured the use of that prudential policy tool as a self-defeating one for the policy maker's goal in curbing the portion of high-risk projects in the targeted bank's assets portfolio. Further, a channel to explain the role of monetary policy in establishing stability or fragility of the banking network is introduced. In particular, the the role of investors' degree of risk aversion in motivating banks to set their monitoring efforts has been evaluated.
Digital Economics
Ali Asghar Salem; habib morovat; atefeh heydari milani; masoumeh azizkhani
Abstract
Over the last decade, there has been a clear increase in ICT expenditure by households, both in value and as a proportion of total expenditure. Such a trend, however, has not affected all households in the same way. This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of urban household expenditures on ...
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Over the last decade, there has been a clear increase in ICT expenditure by households, both in value and as a proportion of total expenditure. Such a trend, however, has not affected all households in the same way. This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of urban household expenditures on ICT goods and services in Iran in 1398, based on micro data from the Household Budget Surveys. For this, Heckman two-stage model has been applied in order to identify the factors affecting the probability of spending and the level of expenditures on ICT, as well as its components (IT goods, IT services, communication goods and communication services). Based on the results, percapita income has a significant and positive effect both on the probability to spend and the level of percapita ICT expenditure. If the household’s head is a man, it has an increasing effect for the probability of spending, but a decreasing effect for the level of ICT expenditure. Households with bigger sizes and the households which have a married head, are more likely to spend on ICT. The impact of education level and age of the household’s head on both the probability to consume and the amount spent, is positive and significant. There is a negative quadratic relationship between age of the houshold’s head and both the probability to spend and the level of percapita ICT expenditure. Furthermore, consumption economies of scale exist in ICT expenditures.
