Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani; Omidali Adeli
Abstract
The purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between currency crises and periods of boom and bust in banking credits in Iran. For this purpose, the time-varying coefficients approach has been used over time for the period of 1989-2022, as well as the control variable of economic boom and ...
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The purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between currency crises and periods of boom and bust in banking credits in Iran. For this purpose, the time-varying coefficients approach has been used over time for the period of 1989-2022, as well as the control variable of economic boom and recession. The currency crisis index is based on the dummy variable, the credit cycle index is calculated based on the periods of boom and bust in banking credits, and the economic cycle is also based on the periods of boom and bust in production using intermediate filters. The results obtained from this study indicated that the currency crisis had an effect on the occurrence of the cycle in granting and production facilities, and it was also observed that the shock caused by the economic cycle also had an effect on the intensification of the currency crisis and the credit cycle in the banking system. Considering the two-way relationship between the currency crisis index and credit cycles in Iran's economy, it is suggested that monetary policy makers in different conditions of economic boom and recession, as well as in the conditions of credit cycles, should refrain from implementing surprising and aggressive policies. Shocking the currency market has prevented the currency crisis from having the least negative impact on economic variables.
Elham Farzanegan
Abstract
The information diffusion and interactions within financial markets have a significant impact on the price discovery process and the sentiment and risk dispersion. For the Tehran Stock Exchange, as the most important part of the capital market of Iran, little research has been conducted on the transfer ...
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The information diffusion and interactions within financial markets have a significant impact on the price discovery process and the sentiment and risk dispersion. For the Tehran Stock Exchange, as the most important part of the capital market of Iran, little research has been conducted on the transfer entropy and the information flow within the market. In this research, the dynamics of information flow are investigated between the 39 major industries from March 27, 2010, to June 21, 2023. Effective transfer entropy is used to measure the intensity of information flow between industry indices. The sequence of information matrices is created by rolling one week window of length one year. Considering that the research period covers some critical events, their impact on the information flow is investigated through the Frebannius distance-based k-nearest neighbour network, Influence Strength analysis, and threshold network. Results show that the effective transfer entropy matrix has time-varying characteristics and is stable over most periods; In addition, most of the critical events have significantly influenced the dynamics of information flow. Moreover, abnormal values of Influence Strength are associated with market volatility and major events. Further, the dominant source of information in the sequence of the information flow network changes over time, indicating that the dominant industry in the network is not sustainable.
shahryar zaroki; Sahar Nasrnejad Nesheli; Niloufar Gorgani Firoozjah
Abstract
In any society, the attention of statesmen, policy makers and researchers to reduce poverty and improve the level of economic welfare is necessary. Considering that most of the economic policies of the government are associated with the effect on relative prices and their changes, and such changes have ...
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In any society, the attention of statesmen, policy makers and researchers to reduce poverty and improve the level of economic welfare is necessary. Considering that most of the economic policies of the government are associated with the effect on relative prices and their changes, and such changes have an effect on welfare; Analysis of welfare effects caused by price changes in different product groups seems necessary. In this regard, the aim of the present study is to investigate the role of inflation of different commodity groups on Iran's economic welfare in the period from 1972 to 2021. For this purpose, the research model has been estimated by the ARDL approach. To calculate well-being, the composite index of well-being is used. The moving trend of the index shows that the economic welfare has fluctuated during the investigated period and after recording the highest value in 1975, it reaches its minimum in 1990. The long-term results of the estimation of the research model indicate that, first, total inflation and inflation of different groups of goods have an unfavorable effect on economic well-being. Second, among different product groups, inflation in the housing, fuel and lighting group has the most unfavorable effect on economic welfare. Third, considering that the share and weight of the group of food, beverages and tobacco in the consumption basket of households is larger than other groups of goods, but the size of the effect of inflation of this group of goods on economic welfare is in ...
parisa moghadasi; Sajjad Faraji Dizaji; Abbas Assari Arani
Abstract
Income inequality is one of the important and key issues in the economy, which, considering its function and consequences, can affect people's health in various ways and endanger the stability and stability of the socio-economic system. Today, most countries suffer from inequality in the distribution ...
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Income inequality is one of the important and key issues in the economy, which, considering its function and consequences, can affect people's health in various ways and endanger the stability and stability of the socio-economic system. Today, most countries suffer from inequality in the distribution of wealth and income due to various reasons. For this reason, this study examines the effect of the good governance index in reducing the effect of Covid-19 on income inequality using available data for countries that export more than 50,000 barrels of oil per day during the years 2000 to 2021 using a panel econometric model. The data has been paid. The results of the research show that the death rate from covid-19 has had a positive and significant effect on increasing income inequality in oil-rich countries. On the other hand, the variable of good governance *Covid-19 with a negative and significant effect on the variable of the Gini coefficient has reduced income inequality.
narges Razban; Hodjatollah Mirzaei; habib morovat; teymour mohammadi
Abstract
The housing price shocks of one region may spread to the housing market of neighboring regions or geographical areas limited in a political border and lead to the formation of price shocks in shock receiving areas. The housing policies will not be effective regionally and separately If the network connection ...
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The housing price shocks of one region may spread to the housing market of neighboring regions or geographical areas limited in a political border and lead to the formation of price shocks in shock receiving areas. The housing policies will not be effective regionally and separately If the network connection between the housing markets of the regions is confirmed. Since the occurrence of a price shock to a housing market spreads with a delayed transmission to interconnected housing markets, ultimately resulting in the diffusion of the price shock across the entirety of the housing network.In this research, we are aiming to investigate the housing network between selected cities (centers of the country's provinces) using the VAR model and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The results of this research confirm the existence of a network connection between the housing markets of the country's provinces, and unlike previous studies, the results show that it is not only the city of Tehran that spreads price shocks to other regions, but also cities such as Karaj, Shiraz and Arak spread price shocks to other cities. In addition, the results suggest that the recent price jump, that has happened since 2019, significantly increased the density of the housing network in the country. Based on this, price shocks are expected to be distributed more quickly throughout the country.
asharaf-sadat pasandideh; maryam keyghobadi; iraj pourkeivani
Abstract
Climate change and drought have intensified in recent decades in the country. These changes have caused the expansion of dust centers in some parts of the country, including in Khuzestan province. One of the adverse effects of dust storms is affecting the power grid and even causing blackouts in some ...
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Climate change and drought have intensified in recent decades in the country. These changes have caused the expansion of dust centers in some parts of the country, including in Khuzestan province. One of the adverse effects of dust storms is affecting the power grid and even causing blackouts in some cases. A disaster that occurred in Februey 2017 in Khuzestan province and had numerous economic consequences. In this article, a model for estimating blackout costs is provided. In this regard, the proxy method used to calculate costs. These costs include lost production costs for different groups of industrial, agricultural and public customers, lost leisure in the household customers sector and lost income for electricity companies of Khuzestan province. The results indicate that the damages and costs caused by the disaster were very extensive. It is necessary to consider this result in planning the stability of the country's electricity network, especially in areas prone to micro dust phenomenon.
Samira Nasiri; Parviz Davoodi; Hosein Samsami; Hossein Tavakolian
Abstract
To achieve the optimal monetary policy, should pay attention to the key element in the effectiveness of these policies, which is the credibility of the monetary policy authorities; Because credit helps to achieve the variables targeted by the policymaker with the least amount of fluctuation and minimum ...
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To achieve the optimal monetary policy, should pay attention to the key element in the effectiveness of these policies, which is the credibility of the monetary policy authorities; Because credit helps to achieve the variables targeted by the policymaker with the least amount of fluctuation and minimum social cost. On the other hand, in situations where the economy is facing unexpected shocks, the use of discretionary policy is optimal because it gives more flexibility to the policy maker to make appropriate monetary decisions. Based on this literature, we have pursued two goals in this study. First, we designed a DSGE model for an open and small economy according to the conditions of Iran's economy, and we estimated the amount of credibility of the monetary policy authority in Iran in the two areas of inflation rate and exchange rate. Then, in order to find the optimal discretionary monetary policy under the influence of two scenarios of low and high credibility of the monetary policy authorities, we used the approach of the minimum value of the loss function. The results of the model indicate that the credibility of the monetary policy maker in Iran is very low in both inflation rate and exchange rate. Examining the loss function of the central bank shows that, in both scenarios, when the monetary policy maker gives the most weight to reducing the exchange rate gap and allocates the same weight to his other goals, the amount of loss function is at its minimum possible value.
Roghayeh Shojaeddin; Majid Sameti; zahra dehghan shabani
Abstract
The role of tax revenue as the most essential source of government finance reveals the necessity of measuring tax effort by the means of unbiased approaches. This study provides an estimate of tax effort by considering it an unobservable variable in tax revenue equation and creation a state-space model ...
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The role of tax revenue as the most essential source of government finance reveals the necessity of measuring tax effort by the means of unbiased approaches. This study provides an estimate of tax effort by considering it an unobservable variable in tax revenue equation and creation a state-space model employing Kalman filter algorithm in Iran over the period 1970-2021. The results indicate the positive and negative effect of per capita income and agriculture share in GDP on tax ratio, respectively. Despite the fact that the other variables have negative elasticity, the squared coefficients of openness and monetization are positive, which demonstrates the negative impact of these variables on tax ratio at the initial level, that will turn to positive after the lowest point. On the contrary, services and industry share in GDP, have positive effect on tax ratio before reaching the maximum point, however, after that it becomes negative owing to their negative squared coefficients. Tax effort in Iran, throughout the mentioned years, has never been more than 0.25 which testifies to the deep gap between actual and potential tax revenue and inefficient tax system.
Mansour Zarra Nezhad; maryam karimi kanouleh; salah ebrahimi
Abstract
Investigate the factors affecting the smuggling of goods as well as its effects on macroeconomic variables has been one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. Examining this issue and its results has an important role in policy making in the field of goods smuggling. Considering ...
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Investigate the factors affecting the smuggling of goods as well as its effects on macroeconomic variables has been one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. Examining this issue and its results has an important role in policy making in the field of goods smuggling. Considering this issue, the purpose of this article is to investigate the economic smuggling of goods as one of the obstacles to production using an empirical approach. Therefore, in this study, in addition to estimating the volume of goods smuggling in Iran using structural equation modeling during the period from 1350 to 1399, its impact on Iran's gross domestic product will also be investigated with a time series approach. The findings of this study showed that the average volume of goods smuggling in the period under review was about 22.53% of the official GDP. Also, based on other results of this study, smuggling as an obstacle to production has had a negative and significant impact on GDP in the 50-year period under investigation.
Public Sector Economics
Abbas Ramezani; Ladan Hajianvari
Abstract
Education has become increasingly importance from various perspectives, especially in terms of economics. One can dare to say that education accounts for the largest part of public expenses in all countries across the world. There are few people (who have studied the direct and indirect social and private ...
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Education has become increasingly importance from various perspectives, especially in terms of economics. One can dare to say that education accounts for the largest part of public expenses in all countries across the world. There are few people (who have studied the direct and indirect social and private benefits of education i.e., both public and higher education) who consider investment in education useless or even less useful. Nevertheless, there are still gaps in research on the way that government or private sector are involved in education, particularly with regards to Islamic viewpoints. The aim of this qualitative research is to analyze the economic role of the government in education with an emphasis on the perspective of Islam. In this regard, semi-structured interviews were conducted on 15 economics of education experts who were purposefully selected using snowball sampling until data saturation was achieved. The content of interviews was analyzed to elicit themes that can be used in a SWOT matrix. The findings indicate that government involvement in this field has strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, emphasizing the necessity for both the public and private sectors to jointly participate in the financing of education. With such cooperation, the government and the market can address current shortcomings and contribute to enhancing the quality of education.
Financial Economics
majid aghaei; Saeed Rasekhi; sara rangber
Abstract
Despite relative development in financial institutions, and the abundance of financial resources (income from oil sales), Iran has still struggled to experience high and sustainable economic growth rates, even facing negative growth rates in recent years. Therefore, investigating the influential factors ...
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Despite relative development in financial institutions, and the abundance of financial resources (income from oil sales), Iran has still struggled to experience high and sustainable economic growth rates, even facing negative growth rates in recent years. Therefore, investigating the influential factors in relationship between financial development and economic growth is crucial. Accordingly, this study examines the role and significance of oil resources (oil course) on the relationship between financial development and economic growth through investment channels using the ARDL bounding test during the period from 1980 to 2020. According to the research findings, financial development has a positive and significant impact on investment during the examined period, while the oil curse weakens this relationship and can indicate the indirect impact of the oil curse on the relationship between financial development and economic growth through investment channels in Iran. The interactive variable of financial development and the oil curse also had a negative and significant impact on investment during the examined period, indicating the financial system's inability to allocate resources effectively toward productive investments. Based on these results, it can be stated that the oil curse has affected the functioning of the financial sector in the Iranian economy and, by making this sector inefficient, has had a negative impact on investment, thus weakening the relationship between economic growth and financial development.
Financial Economics
parisa mohajeri; reza taleblou; Mina Yaghchi
Abstract
The strategic decision of determining the optimal capital structure is paramount for corporate managers, given its profound impact on company valuation and shareholder wealth. This study aims to discern the factors influencing capital structure, specifically financial leverage, with a concentrated focus ...
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The strategic decision of determining the optimal capital structure is paramount for corporate managers, given its profound impact on company valuation and shareholder wealth. This study aims to discern the factors influencing capital structure, specifically financial leverage, with a concentrated focus on uncertainties at both the industry and company levels, employing a multilevel panel model. Data spanning a 15-year period from 1387 to 1401 for 151 companies across 26 industries listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were collected. R software facilitated the estimation of stock price volatility and stock market industry indices, followed by the application of Stata software to estimate the multilevel panel model. The results reveal several key insights: first, industry-level uncertainties exert a significant negative impact on leverage, while company-level uncertainties lack statistical significance. Second, Q-Tobin demonstrates a positive and substantial effect, whereas cash flow, profitability, tangible assets, and the market value-to-book value ratio exhibit negative and significant effects on leverage. Third, accounting for different levels and incorporating a random component in coefficient estimations enhance the model's explanatory power. Therefore, the multilevel panel model proves preferable over the fixed-effects panel model.