Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد سنجی ارومیه
2 Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Urmia, Urmia, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
Abstract
Iran is simultaneously facing the issue of sanctions and their adverse effects on various economic sectors, as well as numerous environmental challenges. The main objective of this research is to examine the extent to which sanctions exacerbate environmental problems in Iran. For this purpose, the effects of sanctions on the increase in carbon dioxide emissions in Iran have been investigated under three scenarios of 60%, 65%, and 70% reductions in oil exports. The GTAP-E-Power model, a computable general equilibrium model, has been dynamically used for this analysis. The results indicate that the total carbon dioxide emissions in Iran increase with the imposition of oil sanctions, and the emissions rise further as the sanctions intensify. When examining carbon dioxide emissions by economic sector, it was found that the electricity production and distribution sector, low-tech manufacturing industries, base-load fossil fuel power generation, and petroleum production were the sectors that not only experienced the highest increase in carbon dioxide emissions but also saw an intensification of emissions as sanctions tightened. In contrast, renewable energy-based power generation and high-tech manufacturing industries either experienced a reduction in carbon dioxide production or a slight increase compared to other sectors under the three scenarios. Based on the results, policy recommendations include lifting sanctions as a macro political and economic priority, investing in petroleum production with access to modern technologies, focusing on the development of renewable resources for electricity generation, strengthening high-tech industries with access to advanced technologies, and concentrating on sectors resilient to sanctions.
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