Abolfazl Shah Abadi
Volume 7, Issue 26 , October 2007, , Pages 181-211
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to assess the role of government expenditure and government economic policies on nonoil economic rate of growth during 1959-2003.
The result indicate that nonoil economic rate of growth depends negatively and significantly on the rate of growth of the ratio of labor and ...
Read More
The aim of this paper is to assess the role of government expenditure and government economic policies on nonoil economic rate of growth during 1959-2003.
The result indicate that nonoil economic rate of growth depends negatively and significantly on the rate of growth of the ratio of labor and depends positively and significantly to the ratio of total investment, government investment and the rate of growth of the ratio of government expenditure, while the rate of growth of the ratio of money supply, the rate of growth of the ratio of export and import to nonoil GDP have not been influential and significant. In other word results show that these policy variables have not a significant effect on nonoil economic rate of growth. While finance policy has significant impact on nonoil GDP rate of growth, monetary policy does not.
In addition, we discussed various shocks and their immediate effects on different variables through application of impulse response and variance decomposition and tried to show the effect of changes on variables and on nonoil economic rate of growth accordingly.
Abd-ol-Rasul Ghasemi; Elham Shadabfar
Abstract
With respect to the fact that housing satisfies a social need, in addition to the impact of economic factors, the social factors are alsoimportant in housing market. The broad economic and social developments in previous years require a study on their impacts on home ownership, so recognizing important ...
Read More
With respect to the fact that housing satisfies a social need, in addition to the impact of economic factors, the social factors are alsoimportant in housing market. The broad economic and social developments in previous years require a study on their impacts on home ownership, so recognizing important factors is a good guide for planners and policy makers. Since people with higher education need to spend some money on their education and this education status increases the expectation of people with higher degrees with respect to their salaries and employment opportunities, therefore studying the impact of education level on the probability of home ownership and evaluating its trend in different time horizons has a critical importance. Since about twenty percent of higher education graduates of Iran do reside in Tehran province, this effect for Tehran province is stronger and of higher importance. In this study with emphasis on recognizing the effect of factors identified in theoretical basis, we have used logit and probit models to investigate the importance of some factors affecting the status of home ownership with emphasis on education level of head of households during the years 1997, 2002 and 2007. The results show that the socio-economic characteristics of households have a significant effect on housing ownership and the relationship between education level of head of household and home ownership is negative. Also the probability of home ownership in families with higher education decrease in the years under study.
Esmaeil Mirza’i; Teymour Mohammadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some ...
Read More
In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some of the most important macroeconomic variables over the period 2002-2013. Variables of this research are the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans as the index for quality of loan portfolio of banks, GDP growth, real lending interest rate, monetary base and growth rate of banks’ loan. We find that a positive shock to real lending interest rate and loan growth rate improve the quality of loan portfolio of banks. However, printing more money by central bank (a positive shock to monetary base) leads to a drop in portfolio quality, while a positive shock to GDP growth rate doesn’t have a significant effect on NPLs. On the other hand, the feedback effect from NPLs on macroeconomic variables is verified, as a positive shock to NPLs (worsening the quality of loan portfolio) causes to exacerbate economic recession, to increase monetary base, and to decrease loan growth rate significantly, but it doesn’t have any significant effect on real lending interest rate .
Mohammad Bamani Moghadam; mostafa pouralizadeh; Hadi Esmaeilpour Moghadam
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine an optimized stock insurance contract in Tehran Stock Exchange. First of all, based on a financial management problem, a risk management contract is designed to minimize the risk of loss that an agent might face. Then, with a mathematical modeling, we will see ...
Read More
The purpose of this study is to determine an optimized stock insurance contract in Tehran Stock Exchange. First of all, based on a financial management problem, a risk management contract is designed to minimize the risk of loss that an agent might face. Then, with a mathematical modeling, we will see that to efficiently manage the stock risk, we need to make sure that only multi-layer contracts, or equivalently, European call options are correctly valued. Therefore, the optimized insurance contract is determined by correct pricing of European call options. Studying more deeply in this area by implementing the proposed algorithm on Tehran stock exchange shows that the optimized value of the insurance contract is a small percentage of the stock initial price; furthermore, it is also a function of the stock return fluctuation. Hence, the volatility and the price of insurance contract are positively correlated. In other words, the more a stock is volatile, the more expensive is an insurance contract.
Mohsen Mohammadi Khyareh; Amineh Zivari
Abstract
Economic complexity is a relatively new concept developed in recent years to assess the productive characteristics of countries. It not only explains the production structure, but also helps examine differences in income and growth across countries. In this paper, we estimate the macroeconomic ...
Read More
Economic complexity is a relatively new concept developed in recent years to assess the productive characteristics of countries. It not only explains the production structure, but also helps examine differences in income and growth across countries. In this paper, we estimate the macroeconomic impact of economic complexity on growth of a sample of N-11 countries for the period 2000-2020, using the economic complexity index developed by Hidalgo and Hausman (2009). Diagnostic tests confirmed the assumption of slope coefficient heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence of the error term. Thus, we employ the Pesaran (2006) Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (CCEMG) and the Chudik and Pesaran (2015) Common Correlated Effect Pooled Mean Group (CCEPMG) methodology. The findings suggest that economic complexity is one of the key determinants of long-term economic growth. However, its impact on economic growth is not significant in the short term, suggesting that the impact of changes in production structure on economic growth is time-sensitive. The coefficients of other control variables such as human capital, investment, institutional quality, and inflation rate were statistically significant.
Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
The spread of information and communication technology and its effects on information and data transfer, in association with high quality education, a favorable economic regime, and innovation in economy, has played an indispensable role in sustainable growth and development. This study is conducted ...
Read More
The spread of information and communication technology and its effects on information and data transfer, in association with high quality education, a favorable economic regime, and innovation in economy, has played an indispensable role in sustainable growth and development. This study is conducted to identify the role and effect of knowledge-based economy on economic growth within the context of existing economic literature. In this line, relying on principles of economic growth models, a model is estimated in the framework of a panel data model, considering the knowledge-based economy index of 139 selected countries during period 2010 to 2014. This research focuses not only on basic production inputs, i.e. capital and labor, but also on social capital and knowledge-based economy as two of the most important factors of production, and it show the role of social capital in economic growth. Our results show a positive and significant effect of the knowledge-based economy index on economic growth among the set of selected countries.
Hassan Dargahi; Mehdi Hadian
Abstract
Designing a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in this paper, we evaluate the impacts of monetary shocks originated from monetary base and monetary multiplier on fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Iranian economy. Due to importance of financial sector in transmition of ...
Read More
Designing a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in this paper, we evaluate the impacts of monetary shocks originated from monetary base and monetary multiplier on fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Iranian economy. Due to importance of financial sector in transmition of economic policies effects, banking system and its current status such as fixed asset accumulation and NPLs has been added to the baseline model. Calibration of parameters of model according to quarterly data of Iranian economy during period 1990-2014 shows that the model fits the data quite satisfactorily. We find that a negative shock to reserve requirement results in slight output growth and inflation while a positive shock to banks’ borrowing from central bank results in output decline and higher inflation. In other words, for the same amount of liquidity growth, increasing of liquidity from a change in monetary multiplier, in contrast to change in monetary base, results in lower inflation and stimulating output. Therefore, it has been suggested that monetary authority should control the amount of borrowings made by banks and, instead, decreases their reserve requirement ratio as an incentive tool. This approach will encourage banks to adhere to their credit line limits and avoid overdrafts which result in higher level of stability in macroeconomic variables through monetary discipline.
Akbar Bagheri; Hasan Abagheri
Abstract
One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from ...
Read More
One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from the banking industry for 18 public and private banks in the period from 2016 to 2021. Using the panel data approach, the influencing factors in the probability of bankruptcy are also investigated. Estimates from the panel approach show that credit diversification is effective in reducing the probability of bankruptcy. Similar evidence shows that the probability of bankruptcy for private banks is equal to 68% and for public banks 70%. The calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index has also shown a value of 0.33 for Iran's private banks and 0.63 for state banks, so credits in private banks have a higher diversity than in state banks. According to the results of the research, more attention should be paid to diversifying credits in public and private banks, determining the optimal size of banks to take advantage of economies of scale, monitoring the central bank's compliance with Basel index standards and monitoring the maintenance of banks' cash balances for the unforeseen demand of the society.
Reza Zamani; Masoud Majidi
Abstract
Debt management, as one of the important aspects of fiscal policy in countries around the world, is constantly considered by policymakers. As public debt can have a positive impact on economic growth and can pose a threat to the financial and debt crisis, it must be managed properly and through ...
Read More
Debt management, as one of the important aspects of fiscal policy in countries around the world, is constantly considered by policymakers. As public debt can have a positive impact on economic growth and can pose a threat to the financial and debt crisis, it must be managed properly and through appropriate rules. In this study, while examining the methods of debt sensitivity and stability analysis, Iran's experience in debt management in the first to sixth development programs after the Islamic Revolution (1979) has been studied and with attention to Iran's debt conditions on the eve of the seventh development plan, this paper proposes appropriate policies for effective debt management and control.
We find that Iran, in the Seventh Development Plan, can amend and extend the debt-based rule in paragraph "t" of Article 8 of the Sixth Development Plan, which is presented in this article. It is also necessary for the government to submit a table of indicators related to government debt (share of short-term debt, changes in short-term debt, net government debt) to the Parliament as it has been added as a new note to this article.
. .
Volume 4, Issue 13 , July 2004, , Pages 197-227
asharaf-sadat pasandideh; maryam keyghobadi; iraj pourkeivani
Abstract
Climate change and drought have intensified in recent decades in the country. These changes have caused the expansion of dust centers in some parts of the country, including in Khuzestan province. One of the adverse effects of dust storms is affecting the power grid and even causing blackouts in some ...
Read More
Climate change and drought have intensified in recent decades in the country. These changes have caused the expansion of dust centers in some parts of the country, including in Khuzestan province. One of the adverse effects of dust storms is affecting the power grid and even causing blackouts in some cases. A disaster that occurred in Februey 2017 in Khuzestan province and had numerous economic consequences. In this article, a model for estimating blackout costs is provided. In this regard, the proxy method used to calculate costs. These costs include lost production costs for different groups of industrial, agricultural and public customers, lost leisure in the household customers sector and lost income for electricity companies of Khuzestan province. The results indicate that the damages and costs caused by the disaster were very extensive. It is necessary to consider this result in planning the stability of the country's electricity network, especially in areas prone to micro dust phenomenon.
. .
Volume 1, Issue 1 , July 2001, , Pages 73-90
firuz fallahi; Parviz Mohamadzadeh; Ali Rezazadeh; Siavash Mohammadpoor; Mohammad Hossein Shararkhah
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 117-140
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the parity rate shocks in U.S. Dollar and Euro against Iranian Rial on the output and price in Iran during 2000:3-2007:3 period. For this purpose, the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar and Euro value against Iranian Rial have been ...
Read More
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the parity rate shocks in U.S. Dollar and Euro against Iranian Rial on the output and price in Iran during 2000:3-2007:3 period. For this purpose, the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar and Euro value against Iranian Rial have been defined as the difference between actual real exchange rate and fitted values of real exchange rate estimated by using a Markov Switching approach. Using Johansen’s co-integration test, the existence of long-run relationship between the variables of the model has been examined and both of the Lambda Max and Lambda Trace statistics confirmed that there is at least one co-integration vector between variables of the two main models of this study. Finally, asymmetric effects of U.S. Dollar and Euro shocks during positive and negative shocks on output and price level has been tested using LR test. The results show that positive and negative shocks of U.S. Dollar have an asymmetric effect on output and price level. The results also show that the fluctuations in the value of Euro against Iranian Rial have an asymmetric effect on price level and a symmetric effect on output.
. .
Volume 3, Issue 10 , January 2004, , Pages 131-156
Jamshid Pajuyan; Vida Vaezi
Volume 11, Issue 41 , July 2011, , Pages 137-158
Abstract
This paper studies the reciprocal effects of the two important socioeconomic
issues, i.e. inequality of income- health through definition of two indices of health
in 30 provinces of the country during 1982-2006. Evaluation of the model in the
framework of the said analytical and consolidated ...
Read More
This paper studies the reciprocal effects of the two important socioeconomic
issues, i.e. inequality of income- health through definition of two indices of health
in 30 provinces of the country during 1982-2006. Evaluation of the model in the
framework of the said analytical and consolidated data is stable in Pool System and
fixed effects method. Although health depends on both factors of average income
and income inequality, but based on the investigations, the society health is more
influenced by income inequality. Therefore, we can see more health in the society
with lower income inequality. The inter-provincial studies performed in various
income groups shows that the income inequality is more effective on health of
society in the provinces with high and low income.
The general conclusions gained from social variables indicate that health
situation has positive correlation with education or training; health care and
number of insured and also health has strong negative correlation with income
inequality and finally weak positive correlation with income average.
. .
Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 139-162
Hosein Raghfar; Hamid Kurd Bache; Marzie Paktinat
Volume 12, Issue 45 , July 2012, , Pages 143-171
Abstract
Poverty traps as vicious circles preserve people‘s poverty and undermine the poor effort to overcome their own misery. This paper presents an empirical test for a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. This test is based on the production function to generate multiple equilibrium, while must be ...
Read More
Poverty traps as vicious circles preserve people‘s poverty and undermine the poor effort to overcome their own misery. This paper presents an empirical test for a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. This test is based on the production function to generate multiple equilibrium, while must be present in the region between the equilibrium. Therefore, increasing returns should be strongest when the economy is transiting between steady state than when it is at or near in one of those steady states. We implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth transitions for a panel of developing and developed economies using World Bank Industrial data. Results of this study show that economies of scale occur where there is collapse in growth. Nevertheless, there are no criteria to distinguish transitory ranges from non-transitory ones. Although, this assumption confirmed economies of scale in industry result in poverty traps.
Ahmad Ahmadpoor; Hossein Khakpour
Volume 11, Issue 43 , January 2012, , Pages 143-166
Abstract
This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of free float
announcement on stock return behavior of the companies accepted in
Tehran Stock Exchange. So we collect free float announcement in
twenty quarters period between 2004 and 2009. The researches
contain stocks behavior in time window between ...
Read More
This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of free float
announcement on stock return behavior of the companies accepted in
Tehran Stock Exchange. So we collect free float announcement in
twenty quarters period between 2004 and 2009. The researches
contain stocks behavior in time window between ten days before and
after announcement changes.
The most important finding of the study revealed that, the Abnormal
Return and Cumulative Abnormal Return statistically differ significantly
before and after of free float announcement.
Firouz Fallahi; Jafar Hghighat; Naser Sanoubar; Khalil Jahangiri
Volume 14, Issue 52 , April 2014, , Pages 147-123
Abstract
Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the behavior of stock, exchange and gold coin markets and their correlations structure by using the DCC-GARCH model and the daily data for the period from 23 July 2011 to 22 September 2013 in Iran. Results show that there is a high correlation between ...
Read More
Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the behavior of stock, exchange and gold coin markets and their correlations structure by using the DCC-GARCH model and the daily data for the period from 23 July 2011 to 22 September 2013 in Iran. Results show that there is a high correlation between returns of Exchange rate and gold coin. But the correlation between returns of stock market index and Exchange rate or gold coin is low. Policy implications on portfolio strategies under DCC model results are also discussed.
Ebrahim Abbasi; Mir Hossein Mousavi; Mehdi Jani
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 147-164
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the variables affecting the efficiency of tax collection and to calculate tax capacity of Golestan province. For this purpose, the coefficients of the regression model are estimated based on time series and cross section data of 28 provinces of Iran by using panel ...
Read More
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the variables affecting the efficiency of tax collection and to calculate tax capacity of Golestan province. For this purpose, the coefficients of the regression model are estimated based on time series and cross section data of 28 provinces of Iran by using panel data method during 2000-2005. Our findings demonstrate that value added of industry and mine, housing and constructions, and service sections have positive and significant effect on tax collection in province level. But per capita income does not have significant effect. Average tax effort, actual average tax efficiency and potential average tax efficiency were respectively 0.88, 1.18 and 1.35 in the province of Golestan.
Hosein Samsami; Ozra Daghmechi Firoz Jaei
Volume 12, Issue 44 , April 2012, , Pages 147-173
Abstract
This paper investigates the trade liberalization (tariff rate decrease) effect on the total factor productivity (TFP) in Iranian industrial firms during 2000-2004. The TFP firms are determined by production function approach, and then the relationship between tariff rates and firm features (size, ownership ...
Read More
This paper investigates the trade liberalization (tariff rate decrease) effect on the total factor productivity (TFP) in Iranian industrial firms during 2000-2004. The TFP firms are determined by production function approach, and then the relationship between tariff rates and firm features (size, ownership type and the concentration degree of the industry relating to the firm) is analyzed.
We showed that the impact of trade liberalization on the TFP has been positive, but the effects of firm features are different. Also, the impact of tariff rate on productivity in private firms is stronger than in the government owned firms. In addition, the impact of trade policies (tariff rates decreasing) on productivity in monopoly firms is stronger than competitive firms.
Saeid Eisa Zade; Jahan Bakhsh Mehranfar; Mahdi Ferdosi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 153-174
Abstract
In this paper, we try to explain cross-country differences in the level of entrepreneurship using self-employment and innovation as proxy variables. For this purpose, we use a comparative approach to explore empirically the ways in which institutions have influenced self-employment and innovation. In ...
Read More
In this paper, we try to explain cross-country differences in the level of entrepreneurship using self-employment and innovation as proxy variables. For this purpose, we use a comparative approach to explore empirically the ways in which institutions have influenced self-employment and innovation. In this paper, we make the assumption that national patent grants represent innovation and that national self-employment rates represent job replacement. Then, we investigate the relationship between the institutional setting, in terms of economic freedom measures, and entrepreneurship which is measured by proxy variables of self-employment and innovation in a panel data setting covering selected countries for the time-period of 1990-2009. The empirical findings show that indices of corruption perception, business freedom and trade freedom are negatively correlated with self-employment rate. On the other hand, investment freedom and freedom from government intervention have positive effect on self-employment. Interestingly, we found that institutional factors that determine self-employment and innovation may act in opposite directions: what encourages self-employment might discourage innovation and vice-versa.
Mohammad-Ghasem Rezaee; Mohammad Rezaee-Poor; Mahboube Sabzrou
Volume 13, Issue 50 , October 2013, , Pages 155-168
Abstract
From the perspective of political economy, the majority vote rule is a base for taxing, financing and supplying public goods. It is obvious that the citizens’ satisfaction is the determining factor in public acceptance of paying taxes and supplying public goods with regards to the extent and method ...
Read More
From the perspective of political economy, the majority vote rule is a base for taxing, financing and supplying public goods. It is obvious that the citizens’ satisfaction is the determining factor in public acceptance of paying taxes and supplying public goods with regards to the extent and method of supply public goods. However, if democracy (the majority vote) is related to the size of tax burden relative to public services, it is implied by the cost-benefit model that citizens evaluate the costs of financing the government budget by their received benefits. By applying this model, this paper examines the effect of democracy on the ratio of governments’ tax to expenditures by cross-country panel data for the period of 1996-2010. The results indicate that this tax-to-expenditure ratio depends on the public political participation and tax level increase can be observed robustly in democratic systems.
Fatemeh Pasban
Volume 11, Issue 40 , April 2011, , Pages 155-183
Abstract
Since the market structure and comparative advantages of exportable products affect economic growth & foreign exchange income of Iran, so, the analysis of factors affecting comparative advantages indices are very important. So, by using the indices such as RCA, RSCA, CR, HHI & the estimation ...
Read More
Since the market structure and comparative advantages of exportable products affect economic growth & foreign exchange income of Iran, so, the analysis of factors affecting comparative advantages indices are very important. So, by using the indices such as RCA, RSCA, CR, HHI & the estimation of linear regression, we study the world market structure and comparative advantages of export of the most important countries & also the factors affecting export comparative advantages of two products, grapes & apple, of Iran.
The structure of the world market for these two products are monopolistic. But the concentration index for the market of apple is more than grapes. Its trend in this period was decreasing which shows the world market is becoming more competitive.
The estimation of the linear regression shows that the factors such as the world production (-), the export price for Iranian products (+), world import price of these products (-), concentration index (-) & the average of comparative advantage index of Iran competitors (-) affect the comparative advantage of these two Iranian products. To improve the Iranian export comparative advantage for these two products, we should implement appropriate export strategy and policies.
Mohammadali Feizpour; Vahid Mahmoudi; Mehdi Emami Meybodi
Volume 9, Issue 35 , January 2010, , Pages 155-173
Abstract
Considerable attention in the extant literature has been devoted to new firm formation and growth of existing firms as the sources of job creation. However, most of the recent studies show that among the growing firm a small minority are ability to show high growth. Although this minority is created ...
Read More
Considerable attention in the extant literature has been devoted to new firm formation and growth of existing firms as the sources of job creation. However, most of the recent studies show that among the growing firm a small minority are ability to show high growth. Although this minority is created the vast majority of new jobs, there is a dearth of research on high growth firms. Furthermore, the majority of literature in this area focuses on large firms while research on high growth small firms is underdeveloped. This paper investigates the characteristics of high growth small firms in manufacturing industry in Iran during the Third Development Plan.
Using a recent population of 7379 small firms (those with 10 to 50 employees), absolute and relative methods and Probit regression model, a number of drivers of high growth were identified and investigated. The
results of this study indicate that high growth small firms are influenced by size in non-linear fashion. In addition, age of firm, profitability, skill of employees, transportation and advertising expenditure, as well as net entry rate are the main characteristics of high growth small firms in manufacturing industry in Iran during the Third Development Plan.
