Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Ph.D. of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Master of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Debt management, as one of the important aspects of fiscal policy in countries around the world, is constantly considered by policymakers. As public debt can have a positive impact on economic growth and can pose a threat to the financial and debt crisis, it must be managed properly and through appropriate rules. In this study, while examining the methods of debt sensitivity and stability analysis, Iran's experience in debt management in the first to sixth development programs after the Islamic Revolution (1979) has been studied and with attention to Iran's debt conditions on the eve of the seventh development plan, this paper proposes appropriate policies for effective debt management and control.
We find that Iran, in the Seventh Development Plan, can amend and extend the debt-based rule in paragraph "t" of Article 8 of the Sixth Development Plan, which is presented in this article. It is also necessary for the government to submit a table of indicators related to government debt (share of short-term debt, changes in short-term debt, net government debt) to the Parliament as it has been added as a new note to this article.
Keywords
بارانی، زینب، سعیدی، پرویز، غنی‌زاده، بهرام، نصیری، مجید. (1397). بررسی اثرات آستانه‌ای بدهی‌های دولت به نظام بانکی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران. فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصاد صنعتی، 2(6)، 71-88.
doi: 10.30473/indeco.2020.37092.1091
زمانی، رضا، مجیدی، مسعود. (2021). تحلیل مقدار بهینه و شرایط آستانه‌ای بدهی‌های دولت در ایران. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشهای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، (43)11، 103-124
سلمانی، یونس .، یاوری، کاظم ، سحابی، بهرام، و اصغرپور، حسین . (1395). اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بدهی‌های دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران. مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران (مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی)، 5(18)، 81-107.
علیزاده، محمد، گل خندان، ابوالقاسم، محمدیان منصور، صاحبه. (1394). تاثیر آستانه ای بدهی‌های خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران: الگوی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم. فصلنامه نظریه‌های کاربردی اقتصاد، 2(2)، 1-24.
کریمی پتانلار، سعید، جعفری صمیمی، احمد.، منتظری شورکچالی، جلال. (1396). پایداری بدهی دولت در ایران: شواهد جدید از تابع واکنش مالی. فصلنامه اقتصاد پولی، مالی (دانش و توسعه)، 24(14)، 1-29.
محمدزاده اصل، نازی. (1397). تاثیر آستانه ای بدهی‌های دولتی بر مصرف بخش خصوصی در ایران. فصلنامه مطالعات و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، 14(2-پ110)، 105-124.
معماریان، محمدحسین. (1398). شناسایی مجاری ایجاد بدهی دولت، شماره مسلسل 16738، مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس .
معماریان، محمدحسین. (1398). بررسی لایحه بودجه سال 1399 کل کشور 9 . وضعیت بدهی دولت و انتشار اوراق مالی، شماره مسلسل 16770، مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس.
مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس. (1399). بدهی عمومی به زبان ساده؛ مسیر آتی آن در ایران، شماره مسلسل 23017180.
موسوی نیک، سید هاد، باقری پرمهر، شعله. (1398). ساخت سری زمانی بدهی دولت و برآورد نسبت بهینه بدهی دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی و فضای مالی در اقتصاد ایران. پژوهشهای رشد و توسعه پایدار (پژوهشهای اقتصادی), 19(1 ), 29-52.
مولایی، محمد، گلخندان، ابوالقاسم. (1393). اثر بدهی‌های خارجی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران. فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 14(53)، 83-108.
Afzal, M. (2012), “Ricardian equivalence hypothesis: evidence from Pakistan”, Journal of Business Management and Economics, 3 (6), 258-265.
Alcidi, C., & Daniel, G. R. O. S. (2018). Debt Sustainability Assessments: The state of the art.
Alizadeh, Mohammad , Golkhandan, A: Mohamadian Mansoor; s. Threshold Effects of External Debt on Economic Growth of Iran: Smooth Transition Regression (STR) Model; 2 (2), 14-24 . [In Persian]
Barani, Z., saeidi, P., Ghanizadeh, B., Nasiri, M. (2018). 'Investigating the Threshold Effects of Government Debts on the Banking System on Economic Growth in Iran', 2 pp. 71-88. [In Persian]
doi: 10.30473/indeco.2020.37092.1091
Barro, R. J. (1979). On the determination of the public debt. Journal of political Economy, 87(5, Part 1), 940-971.
Barro, R.J. (1990), “Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth”, Journal of Political Economics, 98(5/2), 103-125.
Berti, K., Salto, M., & Lequien, M. (2012). An early-detection index of fiscal stress for EU countries (No. 475). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 10.2765/28160.
Bi, H. and Leeper, E.M. (2013), “Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability”, Working Paper, No 2013-27, Bank of Canada, Ottawa. doi:10.34989/swp-2013-27
Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J.-C., Hagemann, R.P. and Sartor, N. (1990), “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question”, Economic Studies, No 15, OECD, Paris.
Blanchard, O., Leandro, A., & Zettelmeyer, J. (2021). Redesigning EU fiscal rules: From rules to standards. Economic Policy, 36(106), 195-236. 10.1093/epolic/eiab003
Bohn, H. (1998), “The Behaviour of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963.
Bohn, H. (2008), “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States”, in Neck, R. and Sturm, J. (eds.), Sustainability of Public Debt, MIT Press, 15-49.
Bouabdallah, O., Checherita-Westphal, C. D., Warmedinger, T., De Stefani, R., Drudi, F., Setzer, R., & Westphal, A. (2017). Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: a methodological framework. ECB Occasional Paper, (185).
Broner, F., Aitor, E., Alberto, M. and Jaume, V. (2014), “Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects”, Journal ofMonetary Economics, 61, 114-142.
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.11.009
Burriel, P., Checherita-Westphal, C. D., Jacquinot, P., Schonlau, M., & Stahler, N. (2020). Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models.
Checherita C. and P. Rother (2010). "The Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area".
Checherita-Westphal, & C. Rother, P. (2012). The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the Euro area. European Economic Review, Vol. 56(7): 1392-1405.
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M. H., & Raissi, M. (2017). Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1), 135-150.
Cohen-Setton, J., & Oikawa, K. (2022). Japan's public debt sustainability before and after COVID-19. In The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt (pp. 66-86). Edward Elgar Publishing.
10.4337/9781800883727.00011
Driessen, G.A. and Gravelle, J.G. (2019), “Deficit financing, the debt, and “modern monetary theory”, Congressional Research Service, 1-23.
10.1186/s40854-023-00481-7
European Central Bank (2012), “Analysing government debt sustainability in the euro area”, Monthly Bulletin, April.
European Central Bank (2014), “Fiscal multipliers and the pace of consolidation”, Monthly Bulletin, April.
Elmendorf, D.W. and Mankiw, G.N. (1999), “Government debt”, in Taylor, J.B. and Woodford, M. (Eds), Handbook of Macroeconomics, Harvard University.
European commission (2019), ‘Fiscal Sustainability Report 2018’, European Economy Institutional Paper, No 094, January. 10.2765/435292
European commission (2022), fiscal stability report 2021, Luxembourg, https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economic-and-financial-affairs-publications_en
Fall, F., & Fournier, J. M. (2015). Macroeconomic uncertainties, prudent debt targets and fiscal rules. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jrxv0bf2vmx-en
Fournier, J. M., & Bétin, M. (2018). Limits to government debt sustainability in middle-income countries.
Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J. D., & Qureshi, M. S. (2013). Fiscal fatigue, fiscal space and debt sustainability in advanced economies. The Economic Journal, 123(566), F4-F30 10.1111/ecoj.12010.
Hilton, S. K. (2021). Public debt and economic growth: contemporary evidence from a developing economy. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 5(2), 173-193. 10.1108/AJEB-11-2020-0096
Jacobs, J., Ogawa, K., Sterken, E., & Tokutsu, I. (2020). Public debt, economic growth and the real interest rate: A panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD countries. Applied Economics, 52(12), 1377-1394. 10.1080/00036846.2019.1673301
Karavitis, N. E. (2018). Fiscal adjustment and debt sustainability: Greece 2010-2016 and beyond. Bank of Greece Working Papers, (245).
Karimi Potanlar, S., Jafari Samimi, A., montazeri shoorekchali, J. (2017). 'Government Debt Sustainability in Iran: New Evidence from a Fiscal Reaction Function (FRF),Monetary & Financial Economics, 24(13), pp. 1-29. [In Persian]
doi: 10.22067/pm.v24i14.57593
Kourtellos, A., Stengos, T. and Tan, C.M. (2013), “The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 38 No. 8, pp. 35-43. 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.08.02310.1016/j.jmacro.2013.08.023
Law, S. H., Ng, C. H., Kutan, A. M., & Law, Z. K. (2021). Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis. Economic Modelling, 98, 26-40.
10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.004
Lopes da Veiga, J. A., Ferreira‐Lopes, A., & Sequeira, T. N. (2016). Public Debt, Economic growth and Inflation in A frican Economies. South African Journal of Economics, 84(2), 294-322. 10.1111/saje.12104
Medeiros, J. (2012), “Stochastic debt simulation using VAR models and a panel fiscal reaction function – results for a selected number of countries”, European Economy, Economic Papers, No 459, European Commission, Brussels. 10.2765/26702
Mendoza, E.G. and Oviedo, P.M. (2004), “Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer”, IMF conference on “Dollars, Debt, and Deficits – 60 Years after Bretton Woods”.
Modigliani, F. (1961), “Long-run implications of alternative fiscal policies and the burden of the national debt”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 71 No. 284, pp. 730-755.
Mohammadzadeh Asl, N. (2019). The Threshold Effect of Government Debt on Private Sector Consumption in Iran. Jornal of economic studies and policies. 2019;14(2(110)):105-124. [In Persian]
Mosler, W. (1993), Soft Currency Economics II: The Origin of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT -ModernMonetary Theory).
Mousavinik S H, Bageripormehr S. Constructing Government Time Series Debts and Estimating of the Optimal Ratio of Government Debt to Gross Domestic Product and Financial Space in Iran Economy. QJER 2019; 19 (1) :29-52 [In Persian]
MOWLAEI, MOHAMMAD, & GOLKHANDAN, ABOLGHASEM. (2014). THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN IRAN. ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW, 14(53), 83-108 [In Persian]
Ncanywa, T. and Masoga, M.M. (2018), “Can public debt stimulate public investment and economic growth in South Africa?”, Cogent Economics and Finance, 6, 1-13. 10.1080/23322039.2018.1516483
Nwannebuike, U.S., Ike, U.J. and Onuka, O.I. (2016), “External debt and economic growth: the Nigeria experience”, European Journal of Accounting Auditing and Finance Research, 4 (2), 33-48.
Onofrei, M., Bostan, I., Firtescu, B. N., Roman, A., & Rusu, V. D. (2022). Public Debt and Economic Growth in EU Countries. Economies, 10(10), 254.
Onogbosele, D.O. and Ben, M.D. (2016), “The impact of domestic debt on economic growth of Nigeria”, Asian Research Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, 1 (3), pp. 1-13. 10.9734/ARJASS/2016/27224
https://doi. org/10.5089/9781455228010.004
Ostry, J. D., Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Qureshi, M. S., Cottarelli, C., Forni, L., ... & Vitek, F. Fiscal Space. IMF Staff Position Note SPN/10/11. New York, NY, 2010.
Pamies, S., & Reut, A. (2020). Assessing public debt sustainability: Some insights from an EU perspective into an inexorable question. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 19(1), 27-43.
Paths, A. R. P. F. B. (2011). Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis.
Rahman, N. H. A., Ismail, S., & Ridzuan, A. R. (2019). How does public debt affect economic growth? A systematic review. Cogent Business & Management, 6(1), 1701339.
SALMANI, YUNES, YAVARI, KAZEM, SAHABI, BAHRAM, & ASGHARPOUR, HOSSEIN. (2016). The short-run and long-run effects of government bedt on economic growth in Iran, Jornal of applied economics studies in Iran, 5(18), 81-107. . [In Persian]
Sanusi, K. A., Hassan, A. S., & Meyer, D. F. (2019). Non-linear Effects of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Countries. International Journal of Economics & Management, 13(1).
Saungweme, T. and Odhiambo, N.M. (2019), “Government debt, government debt service and economic growth nexus in Zambia: a multivariate analysis”, Cogent Economics and Finance, 1(7), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1622998
Sumner, S. P., & Berti, K. (2017). A complementary tool to monitor fiscal stress in european economies (No. 049). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
Wray, R.L. (2015), Modern Monetary Theory: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary Systems, 2nd ed., Palgrave Macmillan, New York, NY.
Zamani, R., Majidi, M. (2021). 'Optimum and Threshold Rates of Government Debt in Iran',Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(43), 124-103. [In Persian] doi: 10.30473/egdr.2020.51086.5644
)