Public Sector Economics
shahryar zaroki; Ahmadreza Ahmadi; Mehdi Hasanpour Varkolaei; Mohammad Reza Zare Chamazakhti
Abstract
In the present research, economic well-being was first calculated using the combined index of economic well-being based on four components of consumption flow, wealth stocks, income distribution and economic security. Then, using the autoregressive with linar and non-linear distributed lag approach while ...
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In the present research, economic well-being was first calculated using the combined index of economic well-being based on four components of consumption flow, wealth stocks, income distribution and economic security. Then, using the autoregressive with linar and non-linear distributed lag approach while explaining the asymmetric effect of subsidy on economic well-being, the optimal level of subsidies in maximizing economic well-being was calculated in the period from 1973 to 2022. The results of calculating the economic well-being index show that from 1975 until the end of the war, the trend of economic well-being was decreasing, and then it started to increase until the sixth plan, so that its average went from 20.9 in the first plan to 60.3 in the fifth plan and has recorded an average of 8 in the sixth program. Also, the size of the subsidy (relative to the total government expenditure) shows that the average size of the subsidy increased from 1973 to the end of the war and also in the first to fourth development plans and then decreased until the sixth plan. The results of long-run estimates show that increases and decreases in subsidy expenditures have a direct effect on economic well-being. In such a way that the direct effect of reductions in subsidy expenditures on economic well-being is greater than the effect of increases in it, which is a confirmation of the existence of an asymmetric effect of subsidy expenditures on economic well-being. Also, the calculation of the optimal amount of subsidy ...
Esfandiar Jahangard; Alireza Jahangard; Negar Ebrahimi
Abstract
In recent years, with the increased availability of data and statistics, particularly multi-country input-output tables and firm-level microdata, along with advances in the data processing capacity of personal computers for managing these vast datasets, as well as information and communication ...
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In recent years, with the increased availability of data and statistics, particularly multi-country input-output tables and firm-level microdata, along with advances in the data processing capacity of personal computers for managing these vast datasets, as well as information and communication infrastructure, the efficient shared use of databases for foreign trade analysis has become possible. The goal of this paper is to implement the gross export decomposition method by Borin and Mancini (2023), using a source-based approach and the perspective of the exporting country, as a foundational analysis for decomposing value-added in the gross exports of Iran’s economic activities.
The contribution of this paper to the economic literature on Iran can be summarized in the following three aspects: First, it utilizes data from the 2016 inter-country input-output database, including data on Iran, for empirical documentation. Second, it focuses on the most recent theoretical framework presented by Borin and Mancini (2023), with a source-based approach and country perspective, to decompose the value-added in the exports of Iran’s economic activities. Third, it offers a structural interpretation of the value-added decomposition of Iran's exports for the year 2016, which can be useful for researchers and policymakers in understanding the global value chains of Iran’s economic activities. The results show that Iran plays a small and fragile role in the global economy.
Introduction
The global economy has become increasingly interconnected, necessitating comprehensive tools to understand complex trade relationships. Traditional trade statistics, which rely on gross export values, often obscure the actual value added by countries. The emergence of inter-country input-output tables allows for a detailed examination of value-added flows within international trade networks. These tables track the production processes across different countries, shedding light on how value is added at each stage of production. This paper builds on the gross export decomposition framework developed by Borin and Mancini (2023), which enables a nuanced analysis of value-added in exports. By applying this framework to Iran's economic activities, we can gain a clearer picture of how different sectors contribute to the country's export economy. This approach provides a more accurate reflection of Iran's role in global value chains (GVCs), moving beyond traditional metrics that may understate or overstate its economic contributions.
The study utilizes the Inter-Country Input-Output(ICIO) database for the year 2016 which includes Iran, which provides comprehensive data on trade and production relationships among various countries. The ICIO database is particularly suited for this analysis as it captures the interconnected nature of global trade and production networks. The Borin and Mancini (2023) methodology involves decomposing gross exports into three main components: The domestic value-added (DVA), that is value-added exported in final or intermediate goods. This is part of the Domestic Content – the part of exports that originated in the country – and is also a measure of GDP in gross exports or in intermediates absorbed by direct importers. The foreign value-added (FVA) that is value-added contained in intermediate inputs imported from abroad, exported in the form of final or intermediate goods. This is part of the Foreign Content – the part of gross exports that originated abroad. The returned value-added is domestic VA in intermediates exported. By applying this decomposition method, we can analyze the contribution of various sectors to Iran's export economy. This analysis involves several steps:
Data Preparation: Extracting relevant data from the ICIO database for Iran and its trading partners.
Decomposition Calculation: Applying the Borin and Mancini (2023) method to decompose Iran's gross exports into DVA, FVA, and RDVA.
Sectoral Analysis: Examining the results to identify key sectors contributing to Iran's value-added exports.
Results and Discussion
The results reveal significant insights into the structure of Iran's export economy. In 2016, Iran's gross exports were composed predominantly of Domestic Value Added (DVA), reflecting the substantial contribution of domestic industries to the country's exports. The analysis shows that the oil and gas sector plays a crucial role in generating DVA, given Iran's abundant natural resources.
However, the study also highlights the presence of Foreign Value Added (FVA) in Iran's exports. This indicates that foreign inputs are integrated into Iran's production processes, demonstrating the interconnectedness of Iran's economy with global supply chains. For instance, machinery and equipment imported from other countries are essential for Iran's manufacturing sector, contributing to the FVA in its exports. The Returned Domestic Value-Added component, although smaller, provides interesting insights into the circular nature of some value-added flows. This component illustrates how certain domestic value-added returns to Iran after being processed abroad. For example, raw materials exported from Iran may be processed into intermediate goods in other countries and then re-imported for further manufacturing. The application of the Borin and Mancini (2023) value-added decomposition method provides a detailed and nuanced understanding of Iran's export economy. By distinguishing between Domestic Value Added (DVA), Foreign Value Added (FVA), and Returned Domestic Value Added (REF), this analysis offers a comprehensive view of how different sectors contribute to Iran's gross exports.
Conclusion
The study reveals that while Iran's export economy is heavily reliant on domestic industries, it is also deeply from oil and mining interconnected with global supply chains. Furthermore, the Returned Domestic Value-Added component highlights the circular nature of some value-added flows, illustrating the complexity of global trade relationships. For policymakers and researchers, these insights are invaluable. Understanding the composition of Iran's export economy can inform strategies to enhance domestic industries' competitiveness and better integrate into global value chains. Additionally, recognizing the role of foreign inputs in domestic production can guide policies aimed at improving the efficiency and resilience of supply chains. In summary, the value-added decomposition method employed in this study offers a robust framework for analyzing Iran's export economy. It provides a clearer picture of how domestic and foreign industries interact within global trade networks, offering valuable insights for enhancing Iran's economic performance in the context of global value chains.
Habib Morovat
Abstract
A substantial body of research highlights the presence of social preferences, their economic and political implications, and the varied conditions that influence their effects on the equilibrium and outcomes of human interactions. This study utilizes data from the Global Preferences Survey (GPS) to explore ...
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A substantial body of research highlights the presence of social preferences, their economic and political implications, and the varied conditions that influence their effects on the equilibrium and outcomes of human interactions. This study utilizes data from the Global Preferences Survey (GPS) to explore how age and gender impact social preferences across Iran at both national and provincial levels. The findings from a multivariate regression analysis reveal that age positively and significantly influences trust and altruism, while it negatively and significantly impacts negative reciprocity, with no significant effect on positive reciprocity. Gender, on the other hand, shows a significant negative effect on trust, indicating that women tend to exhibit lower levels of trust. Additionally, income and education negatively and significantly impact trust but positively affect altruism and positive reciprocity, with no notable effect on negative reciprocity.
The study also presents a provincial ranking within Iran based on key elements of social preferences: trust, altruism, positive reciprocity, and negative reciprocity. According to the research findings, Iran scores above the global average in terms of altruism, trust, and reciprocity. Notably, Markazi, Lorestan, and Ilam provinces rank highest in trust, altruism, and reciprocity, respectively.
Introduction
An influential set of laboratory experiments has questioned the conventional wisdom among economists and the validity of Stigler's (1981) position that "when self-interest and moral values conflict, most of the time, self-interest theory will win." These studies are complemented by a whole body of theoretical research that examines the nature and economic consequences of "social preferences". The most important of these theories consider social preferences as a result of altruism, reciprocity, fairness, and inequality-avoidance, maintaining social image or other motives. Studies based on field experiments also confirm the results of laboratory studies (List, 2006 and Falk et al., 2018). Ignoring social preferences makes economists unable to understand basic economic questions. Without considering social preferences, it is impossible to understand questions such as the effects of competition on market outcomes, the rules governing cooperation and collective action, the effects and determinants of material incentives, contracts and optimal property rights arrangements, and the important forces shaping social norms and market failure (Fehr and Fischbacher, 2002).
Determining factors of social preferences can be different according to demographic, geographic and cultural characteristics. Studies have shown that older people tend to prioritize fairness and reciprocation behavior (Falk et al., 2018). Also, studies have shown that women are typically more cooperative and tend to be more than men (Crawson & Gnezzi, 2009 and Falk & Hermel, 2018). Research has shown that older people and women typically have more trust (Crowson Vegnizi, 2009 and Duhman et al., 2008).
In Iran, due to the diversity of culture and geographical conditions, it is important to investigate the role of demographic variables on social preferences. In this research, we examined the causal relationship between age, gender, income, and education with each of the components of social preferences at the national and provincial levels with a standard model and technique.
Methods and Material
In order to investigate the factors affecting social preferences, the required data and information have been collected using a questionnaire. The information related to the dependent and independent variables of this research was extracted from the valid questionnaire available in Falk et al.'s article (2018) and the GPS website. Information related to Iran has been extracted from more than 2500 participants from all provinces of the country. In order to investigate the causal relationship between age and gender with variables of social preferences, multivariate regressions have been used in general as follows:
Results and Discussion
Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, we estimated a model to examine the significance of gender, age, and cognitive ability on various dimensions of social preferences, including trust in others, altruism, and positive and negative reciprocity, as well as an aggregated index of social preferences. The analysis was conducted both at the national level and across individual provinces. Table 1 presents the estimated coefficients and their significance, highlighting how each variable influences these social preference metrics across different contexts within the country.
Table 1: Model estimation results for the whole country
independent variables
trust
altruism
Positive reciprocity
Negative reciprocity
Social preferences index
Dependent variables
age
0.0787***
0.006***
0.0053
-0.016**
0.0058*
Squared age
-0.0001
0.00005
-0.00004
-0.0003
-0.0002
gender
-0.1293***
0.049
0.0018
-0.0615
-0.1242
income
-0.045**
0.029***
0.03***
0.018
0.015**
education
-0.010***
0.022***
0.033***
0.012
0.014**
math
0.0165**
0.0095
0.0224***
0.0305***
0.0818***
R-Squared
0.0451***
0.007***
0.0068***
0.0582***
0.0126***
Sample size
2406
2474
2478
2449
2373
Source: Research calculations
*, **, *** are significant statistics at the level of 10, 5, and 1 percent, respectively.
The models were tested for heteroskedasticity, and where it was detected in the residuals, a robust estimator was applied. Specifically, in the models for positive reciprocity and the social preferences index, the null hypothesis of homoskedasticity was rejected, necessitating the use of robust estimations. Ramsey's test was conducted to check for potential endogeneity arising from omitted variables or specification errors, and this test did not reject the null hypothesis in any of the models. Table 2 provides the goodness-of-fit test results for these models.
Table 2: The results of goodness of fit tests
Tests/ Models
Trust
Altruism
Positive reciprocity
Negative reciprocity
Social preference index
Breusch–Pagan
(Prob)
1.88
(0.17)
1.75
(0.18)
11.65
(0.0006)
2.52
(0.11)
3.87
(0.0491)
Ramsey Test
(Prob)
1.03
(0.38)
0.26
(0.85)
0.15
(0.92)
1.81
(0.14)
1.25
0.29
Source: Research calculations
Conclusion
In this research, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of demographic variables such as age, gender, income, and education on social preferences for the entire country and province. The results of multivariate regression showed that, firstly, people's age has a positive and significant effect on trust in others and altruism. This finding is consistent with the findings of most studies. However, age has a negative and significant effect on negative reciprocity, which shows that negative reciprocity decreases with increasing age. And finally, age does not have a significant effect on positive reciprocity. Secondly, gender only has a negative and significant effect on trust in others and has no significant effect on other social variables. In other words, women are less devoted to others than men. The findings of this study are not consistent with the findings of most other studies on gender. Because in most other studies, women are more social, more altruistic and have significant negative countermeasures compared to men. The cause of this issue can be related to the culture and religion and the role of women in the country, which needs to be studied more in this field. Thirdly, income and education have a negative and significant effect on trust and have a significant and positive effect on altruism and positive reciprocity and do not have a significant effect on negative reciprocity. The effect of income and education is very similar. Income and education have a negative and significant effect on trust and have a significant and positive effect on altruism and positive reciprocity and do not have a significant effect on negative reciprocity.
Failure to understand and identify factors influencing social preferences leads to a misunderstanding of people's economic behavior (Fehr and Fischbacher, 2002). Correct understanding and identification of factors affecting social preferences helps policymakers to act optimally in understanding the process of cooperation between economic factors, designing economic incentives, and designing social policies.
Akbar Bagheri; Hasan Abagheri
Abstract
One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from ...
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One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from the banking industry for 18 public and private banks in the period from 2016 to 2021. Using the panel data approach, the influencing factors in the probability of bankruptcy are also investigated. Estimates from the panel approach show that credit diversification is effective in reducing the probability of bankruptcy. Similar evidence shows that the probability of bankruptcy for private banks is equal to 68% and for public banks 70%. The calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index has also shown a value of 0.33 for Iran's private banks and 0.63 for state banks, so credits in private banks have a higher diversity than in state banks. According to the results of the research, more attention should be paid to diversifying credits in public and private banks, determining the optimal size of banks to take advantage of economies of scale, monitoring the central bank's compliance with Basel index standards and monitoring the maintenance of banks' cash balances for the unforeseen demand of the society.
Reza Maaboudi; Zeynab Dare Nazari
Abstract
This paper aims to study the relationship between financialization and the variables of income distribution and economic growth in Iran during 1988:q1 -2019:q4. To analyze the relationship, the continuous wavelet transform approach and to explain the results with empirical facts, the regression ...
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This paper aims to study the relationship between financialization and the variables of income distribution and economic growth in Iran during 1988:q1 -2019:q4. To analyze the relationship, the continuous wavelet transform approach and to explain the results with empirical facts, the regression approach with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) have been used. Results of the wavelet transform show that, in the short-run, there is a positive coherency between financialization and income inequality; so that during 1989-2007 and 2014-2019, financialization is the leading and cause of income inequality. Also, in the short run, there is a negative coherency between financialization and economic growth; in a way that during 1989-2019 financialization is the leading and cause of economic growth. The results of the MIDAS approach also show that in addition to financialization, the variables of government expenditures, economic growth, inflation, and sanctions have a positive and significant effect, and the policy of targeted subsidies has a negative and significant impact on income inequality. Also, financialization, government expenditures, income inequality, inflation, and economic sanctions have a negative and significant effect, and physical capital, employment, and degree of trade openness have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. As a result, the phenomenon of financialization accompanied by the imposition of economic sanctions and government policies, on the one hand, leads to an increase in the wage and income gap between the real sector and the financial sector, and, on the other hand, their effects leave a negative impact on economic growth by the diversion investment to unproductive activities.
Mahdiyeh Saei
Abstract
The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods ...
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The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods accounts were split into cereal accounts, other agriculture, industry, and mining and services. The results of the model, using three simulation scenarios, showed that as a result of climate change, the production of all sectors excluding industry and mining would be reduced, which would result in higher prices for cereals and lower prices for other activities. In addition, grain exports will decrease in different scenarios and exports of other goods will increase. On the other hand, cereal imports will decrease as imports and other commodities decrease. In this regard, the welfare of urban and rural households will also decrease, which is more pronounced for urban households. According to the results, the macroeconomic effects of these scenarios are the reduction of nominal and real GDP, total absorption and private consumption of households.
Parviz Davoudi; Hassan Sabzi Khoshnami
Abstract
Income inequality has received much attention from economists and policymakers as one of the components of economic development. On the other hand, the difference between developed and developing economies can be checked in the efficiency of their financial systems. This study investigates the ...
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Income inequality has received much attention from economists and policymakers as one of the components of economic development. On the other hand, the difference between developed and developing economies can be checked in the efficiency of their financial systems. This study investigates the effect of financial development on income inequality in Iran using the threshold regression method during 2020-1967. The results show that the effect of financial development of the banking sector and the stock market on income inequality has a threshold limit. in model one, the financial development of the banking sector before and after the threshold has a significant and negative effect on inequality. In model two, stock market financial development has significant and negative effect on income inequality before the threshold but not significant effect after the threshold. However, there is insufficient evidence to support the effect of financial development on income inequality in the form of Greenwood and Jovanovic's inverse U hypothesis.
hojjat izadkhasti
Abstract
Regional inequality has economic, social and cultural dimensions. One of the main concerns of planners and policymakers in economic development programs is reduction of poverty and inequality based on provincial income per capita. Therefore, through budget allocation tools, the government can reduce ...
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Regional inequality has economic, social and cultural dimensions. One of the main concerns of planners and policymakers in economic development programs is reduction of poverty and inequality based on provincial income per capita. Therefore, through budget allocation tools, the government can reduce inequalities in provincial incomes per capita and create more balance among provinces. In this paper, the effects of inequality in the allocation of provincial budget on provincial inequalities are estimated using dynamic panel data method for period 2005-2016 in 30 Iranian provinces. The estimation results indicate that the increase in inequality of provincial capital formation budget has reduced inequality in provincial income. This result indicates an increase in government investment in infrastructure and a higher share of government development budget in less-developed provinces. Also, with increasing inequality in provincial current per capita budget, inequality in regional income has increased; because an increase in inequality of current per capita budget in the provinces can lead to unbalanced public service provision and an increase in inequality of income per capita.
Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian; parviz rostamzadeh; hamzeh sheikhiani
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on Social Accounting Matrix data of year 2011. The results show that in current institutional situation of Iran, the reduction of tariffs in the agriculture, horticulture, forestry and mining sectors can reduce inequality and tariff reduction in sectors of food industry, low technology industries, high technology industries, higher education, transportation and other services will increase inequality in urban and rural areas. By reducing tariff rates in mid-tech industries, inequality in urban and rural areas initially decreases and then increase. Reducing tariffs in oil and gas and healthcare sectors does not affect inequality in urban and rural areas. It is also shown that in the case of implementing resistance economy policies and improving institutional quality, tariff rate reduction in all sectors of production will reduce inequality. Reducing tariff rates in primary and secondary education sectors, housing and other sectors that de not have any link to outside world has no effect on inequality, both in the current institutional situation and in the case of institutional quality improvement as a result of implementing resistance economy policies. Therefore, it is suggested that attention be paid to improvement of institutional quality in the country, along with the implementation of resistance economy policies.
Reza Zamani
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to study social order in Iran between two revolutions (1906-1979). Generally, there are two types of social order: limited- and open-access. Limited-access (or Natural State) social order is sub-categorized into three types of fragile, basic and mature. It can be shown ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to study social order in Iran between two revolutions (1906-1979). Generally, there are two types of social order: limited- and open-access. Limited-access (or Natural State) social order is sub-categorized into three types of fragile, basic and mature. It can be shown that between constitutional revolution and 1921 coup, Iran was caught in fragile natural state. Then, from this coup to political regime change from Qajariyyeh to Pahlavi (1921-1925), Iran was switching from fragile to basic natural state. Iran’s social order in Reza Shah era (1925-1941), was basic natural state and economic growth achieved in a closed political sphere which did lead to double imbalances. From 1941-1946 Iran experienced a sharp backward move to fragile social order. After that, social order was switching from fragile to basic natural state during 1947-1953. During period 1953-1963, basic natural state was stabilized. There were a lot of attempts to politically control the military (as the last transition condition to open-access social order) during 1941-1963, but these efforts finally failed. The golden decade of economic growth in Iran happened between 1963 to 1972. In this decade, economic system was switching form basic to mature natural state. However, political access was under tight restriction and control. Therefore, double imbalance of economic and political systems emerged again. In 1973-1979 the country was going back from basic to fragile natural state, and dominant coalition threatened and finally was overthrown completely by Islamic revolution (1979).
alaeddin ezoji; Abbas Assari Arani; mohmmad reza vaeze mahdavi; GholamReza K. Haddad
Abstract
The relationship between human capital and labor productivity is always important for economists. Considering the relationship between these two will also be remarkable in microeconomic studies. Meanwhile, the impact of different dimensions of human capital on labor productivity can be a measure ...
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The relationship between human capital and labor productivity is always important for economists. Considering the relationship between these two will also be remarkable in microeconomic studies. Meanwhile, the impact of different dimensions of human capital on labor productivity can be a measure of actual effect of human capital on productivity. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of various dimensions of human capital (education, health, and experience), on labor productivity based on individual characteristics in Iranian economy. We use micro data (Cost–Income Survey of Urban Areas - 2013) and estimation of Quantile Regression (QR) econometric technique. For this purpose, net income (wage and salary) for employment in private sector is used as proxy of labor productivity. Our results show that in different quantiles, all three dimensions of human capital have a positive and significant effect on productivity of labor force employed in Iranian private sector. Meanwhile, in different quantiles, health indicators of human capital are more volatile than other dimensions of human capital, i.e. education and experience. So, in lower quantiles (Ql), the response of labor productivity to health indicators is more than higher quantiles (Qh). Because of that, any kind of health shock may have a greater effect on labor productivity in lower-income groups. This result shows the importance of health capital in social security, insurance and health systems and reminds us to improve the productivity of working people by means of better health capital.
Siab Mamipour; Elham Mogaddasi
Abstract
This paper aims to study the role of gold, stock and foreign currency as hedges against inflation in Iran based on monthly data over period 2000-2016 by using a novel approach with nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL). To achieve this goal, the effect of positive and negative inflation shocks ...
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This paper aims to study the role of gold, stock and foreign currency as hedges against inflation in Iran based on monthly data over period 2000-2016 by using a novel approach with nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL). To achieve this goal, the effect of positive and negative inflation shocks on price of these assets is estimated separately. The results show that all assets (foreign currency, gold and stock) are hedges against inflation in Iranian economy. As inflation rate increases, the prices of these assets also increase, but the magnitude and type of their hedge against inflation vary in different time horizons. The results show that the effects of both positive and negative inflation shocks on gold price are symmetric in the short-run, but in the long run, the effect of positive inflation shocks on gold price are more than negative shocks. The results of the inflationary coverage of foreign currency show that the effects of the positive and negative inflation shocks on it are asymmetric in the short-run and long-run; while these effects are symmetric for stocks in both short- and long-term. Furthermore, stocks is a proper hedge against inflation in the long run and not only it maintains purchasing power, but also it increases value of investors’ assets. Moreover, the inflationary coverage of foreign currency and gold are the same and less than rising inflation, but exchange rate is a hedge in the short-run and gold plays the role of hedge against inflation in the long-run.
Esfandiar Jahangard; parisa mohajeri; leila momeni
Abstract
The subject of labor force productivity changes during business cycles has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomics, which has gained less attention among studies focusing on Iranian Economy. In the study, we have aimed at empirically examining the role that labor force productivity fluctuations ...
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The subject of labor force productivity changes during business cycles has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomics, which has gained less attention among studies focusing on Iranian Economy. In the study, we have aimed at empirically examining the role that labor force productivity fluctuations play during economic cycles in the Iran using time-series data for the period of 2005Q2-2015Q1 by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. In order to estimate relations, we have separated fluctuation and trend components based on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Based on our results, it is suggested that labor force productivity moves in alignment with GDP and increases in expansion periods and decreases in recession periods which indicate pro-cyclical behavior of labor force productivity in Iranian Economy. Second, in the last seasons of an expansion period, the role of labor force productivity fluctuations decreases in gross domestic product fluctuations which is along with the theory.
Saeed Moshiri; Maryam Parsa; Liela Darougar
Abstract
As a general-purpose technology, information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increasing productivity and economic growth in different sectors. Iran, as a semi-industrialized developing economy, has recently made relatively high level of investment on ICT in different sectors of the economy. ...
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As a general-purpose technology, information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increasing productivity and economic growth in different sectors. Iran, as a semi-industrialized developing economy, has recently made relatively high level of investment on ICT in different sectors of the economy. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between ICT sector and other sectors of the economy using an input-output table. We construct an input-output table with 37 sectors including ICT sector, using the updated IO table for year 2010. ICT goods production comprises 1.8 percent of total goods production and ICT service is 1.32 percent of the total service production. The results show that one unit increase in final demand for information technology (IT) products will increase total output by 1.63 units and one unit increase in final demand for communication technology (CT) products will increase total output by 2.18 units. The greatest impact of ICT in manufacturing sectors will be respectively in food and beverage, basic metal, and chemical products, and in the services sector in the wholesale, retail sale, financial intermediates, and real estate services. We also calculate the Average Propagation Length (APL) of the changes in the ICT final demand. The results indicate that the average propagation length of the changes in the ICT final demand is 1 for the services sector and 2 for the manufacturing industries.
Abolfazl Pasbani; ali cheshomi; meisam pileforoush
Abstract
This article has surveyed effect of political institutions on performance of oil funds and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in resource-dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in political institutions, cause differences in performance ...
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This article has surveyed effect of political institutions on performance of oil funds and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in resource-dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in political institutions, cause differences in performance of oil funds in Iran, Norway and Saudi Arabia. In situations that institutional framework causes maximization of benefits with long-term decisions, the mechanism of oil funds are successful. And in situations that institutional framework causes maximization of benefits with short-term decisions, the mechanism of oil funds are not successful. Institutional framework in full democracies and paternalism authoritarian regimes lead to the long-term decisions, but institutional framework in flawed democracies leads to short-term decisions. It seems that in Iran, motivations implicit in institutional structure push politicians to take short-term decisions instead of long-term decisions, such that politicians are inclined to maximize their own interests and consider short-term period. That has been of the most important factor in failure of Iran's Foreign Currency Reserves Account or National Development Fund.
Mohammad Reza Farzaneh; Ali Bagheri; Mohammadhossein Ramezani Ghavamabadi
Abstract
Unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater resources has resulted in increasing spread of economic, social and ecological consequences in Iran. Particularly, since the adoption of "Protection of groundwater resources of Iran Act" (passed in 1966), numerous policies and laws with the aim of protecting groundwater ...
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Unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater resources has resulted in increasing spread of economic, social and ecological consequences in Iran. Particularly, since the adoption of "Protection of groundwater resources of Iran Act" (passed in 1966), numerous policies and laws with the aim of protecting groundwater resources have been passed and enforced; however, the level of groundwater table has been continuously decreasing while the number of prohibited plains have been increasing. So, the question arises that where the problem is originated from; and despite nearly 50 years of policy-making, legislation and implementation, why are groundwater resources not protected, but the situation has been getting worse and worse. Relying on the premises of institutional theories, the present paper will address the context and features of water bodies based on three components of mental models, structures, and the system of benefit and power distribution. The results show that the components of institutional environment are inconsistent with the context of legality.
Mansour Zarra Nezhad; Elaheh Ansari; Masood Khoda Panah
Abstract
Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can ...
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Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can be of remarkable help to discover fundamental problems, set goals, and choose the best way to achieve them. Islamic economy could be one of these areas. In this study, through following scientific principles, the composite index of Islamic economy in Iran from 1995 to 2012 was defined and estimated. In fact, it is for the first time that a long-term performance of a country is examined. The results show that the absolute value of the index has not changed significantly in the course of 18 years under study, and there have been fluctuations in a short run. Reducing unemployment and inflation rates, promoting the culture of the using non-interest-bearing deposits (Gharz-ol-Hasane), as well as reducing bank interest rate comprise strategies for improving this indicator in Iran.
Esmaeil Mirza’i; Teymour Mohammadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some ...
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In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some of the most important macroeconomic variables over the period 2002-2013. Variables of this research are the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans as the index for quality of loan portfolio of banks, GDP growth, real lending interest rate, monetary base and growth rate of banks’ loan. We find that a positive shock to real lending interest rate and loan growth rate improve the quality of loan portfolio of banks. However, printing more money by central bank (a positive shock to monetary base) leads to a drop in portfolio quality, while a positive shock to GDP growth rate doesn’t have a significant effect on NPLs. On the other hand, the feedback effect from NPLs on macroeconomic variables is verified, as a positive shock to NPLs (worsening the quality of loan portfolio) causes to exacerbate economic recession, to increase monetary base, and to decrease loan growth rate significantly, but it doesn’t have any significant effect on real lending interest rate .
Masoud Nonejad; Maryam Haghjoo
Volume 14, Issue 53 , July 2014, , Pages 63-82
Abstract
As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within region are displaying an ever–greater complexity. Although inter–industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra–industry trade (IIT), which can be further ...
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As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within region are displaying an ever–greater complexity. Although inter–industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra–industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT) is growing in importance. In this paper, we set out and examine different kinds of intra-industry trade between Iran and G-8 member states by comparing the Greenway, Hine and Milner (1994) and Fontagne and Freudenberg (1997) approaches to disentangling vertical and horizontal intra–industry trade. Then we introduce and examine a new index from Azhar and Elliott to define product quality types between Iran and G-8 members for the time of 2001-2009. Result shows that a significant share of Iran’s industry trade with G-8 state members has been assigned to vertical intra industry trade. With regarded to Azhar and Elliott index, the main share of intra-industry trade consists of low quality goods.
Esfandiar Jahangard; Afrouz Azadikhah Jahromi
Volume 13, Issue 51 , January 2014, , Pages 81-111
Abstract
In this paper we identify the production chains of Iranian economy by using average propagation length (APL) index. In our imprical investigation, we have applied the mentioned methodology to the 2000 input-output table of Iran. In order to obtain a clear overview of the production chains in Iran, the ...
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In this paper we identify the production chains of Iranian economy by using average propagation length (APL) index. In our imprical investigation, we have applied the mentioned methodology to the 2000 input-output table of Iran. In order to obtain a clear overview of the production chains in Iran, the table was aggregated to 6 sector level. At first we calculate the backward and forward linkages and APLs, and then we visualize the production chains for Iranian economy. As a second application we have considered the linkages, APLs and production chains at a more detailed level. For this purpose, we have used the 28-sector classification. The results for the backward and forward linkages of each sector indicate that industry and electricity, gas and water supply are known as key sectors. Also it was found that largest average forward APL value belongs to agriculture and mining, and smallest value belongs to services and construction. Likewise, the largest average backward APL value is observed for construction and agriculture, and smallest value oserverd for mining and services. It should also be noted that in both applications mining located at the beginning of the production chain o Iranian economy.
Hassan Heydari; HamidReza Faalju; Fatemeh Karami
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 151-176
Abstract
The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran, that has high degree of volatility, ...
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The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran, that has high degree of volatility, is exchange rate uncertainty.The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on price index in the TSE for the period of 1994-2009 using monthly data. In this regard, first, an index of exchange rate uncertainty is calculated using EGARCH models. Then, in order to obtain the relationship between uncertainty in real exchange rate and the stock price index, Bounds test approach is applied to the relationship between level data. The results show that in both long-run and short-run, there is a negative and significant relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices. Moveover, real exchange rate uncertainty has a non-significant negative effect on stock price in short-run. In the long-run, the relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and stock price is negative and significant. The results of Granger causality test also show that bidirectional causality exists between the real exchange rate and real exchange rate uncertainty in the short-run. While we could not find such an interactive relationship between other variables in the short-run, an indirect causality exists from exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty to the stock price in the long-run.
Saeed Moshiri; Mohammad Nadali
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 1-27
Abstract
The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index ...
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The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index shows that the banking system has experienced crisis in various times. In this paper, we use the banking crisis data derived by Moshiri and Nadali (2010) to estimate the determinants of the banking crisis in Iran, using a Logit model for the period 1971-2008. The estimation results show that inflation, short term interest rate, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP are the main factors affecting banking crisis in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that the relationship between inflation rate and the banking crisis is U shape. The exchange rate does not have a significant effect on the banking crisis as the Iranian banking system is not heavily involved in the international financial markets and is not strongly connected to the international banking system.
Majid Sameti; Hassan Karnameh Haghighi
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 121-145
Abstract
This study aims primarily at investigating the impact of macroeconomic instability on lending behavior of banking sector in Iran using data on commercial banks and macroeconomic instability from 1974 to 2009. Our results under the Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Modeling framework show that ...
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This study aims primarily at investigating the impact of macroeconomic instability on lending behavior of banking sector in Iran using data on commercial banks and macroeconomic instability from 1974 to 2009. Our results under the Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Modeling framework show that bank lending has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic instability. In other words, the long-term increase in macroeconomic instability indicators would be associated with reduction in commercial bank lending. In addition, an increase in the natural logarithm of assets of commercial banks (as a proxy of bank size), have a significant effect on the lending behavior of commercial banks. The results also show that although the ratio of deposits to capital and lending behavior of commercial banks are interacted with each other in the long run, but in the short term the error of balance does not adjust itself. Simply saying, although the ratio of deposits to capital has a long-run effect on the lending behavior of commercial banks but it is not affected by lending behavior of commercial banks. In fact, the variable of deposits to capital ratio is weak exogenous when compared with other variables.
Ali Hussein Samadi; Naghmeh Zare Haghighi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 123-152
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in Iran. We use an asymmetric error correction model within a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) framework during 1991-2010. Contrary to previous ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in Iran. We use an asymmetric error correction model within a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) framework during 1991-2010. Contrary to previous studies on Iranian economy, the results show that synchronization hypothesis with asymmetric adjustment towards long run equilibrium is confirmed between government revenues and expenditures. The policy implication of the results is that the government should simultaneously rise revenues and decrease spending in order to control the budget deficits.
firuz fallahi; Parviz Mohamadzadeh; Ali Rezazadeh; Siavash Mohammadpoor; Mohammad Hossein Shararkhah
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 117-140
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the parity rate shocks in U.S. Dollar and Euro against Iranian Rial on the output and price in Iran during 2000:3-2007:3 period. For this purpose, the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar and Euro value against Iranian Rial have been ...
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The main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the parity rate shocks in U.S. Dollar and Euro against Iranian Rial on the output and price in Iran during 2000:3-2007:3 period. For this purpose, the fluctuations of U.S. Dollar and Euro value against Iranian Rial have been defined as the difference between actual real exchange rate and fitted values of real exchange rate estimated by using a Markov Switching approach. Using Johansen’s co-integration test, the existence of long-run relationship between the variables of the model has been examined and both of the Lambda Max and Lambda Trace statistics confirmed that there is at least one co-integration vector between variables of the two main models of this study. Finally, asymmetric effects of U.S. Dollar and Euro shocks during positive and negative shocks on output and price level has been tested using LR test. The results show that positive and negative shocks of U.S. Dollar have an asymmetric effect on output and price level. The results also show that the fluctuations in the value of Euro against Iranian Rial have an asymmetric effect on price level and a symmetric effect on output.
