Document Type : Research Paper


Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, Kerman Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Kerman, Iran.


The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods accounts were split into cereal accounts, other agriculture, industry, and mining and services. The results of the model, using three simulation scenarios, showed that as a result of climate change, the production of all sectors excluding industry and mining would be reduced, which would result in higher prices for cereals and lower prices for other activities. In addition, grain exports will decrease in different scenarios and exports of other goods will increase. On the other hand, cereal imports will decrease as imports and other commodities decrease. In this regard, the welfare of urban and rural households will also decrease, which is more pronounced for urban households. According to the results, the macroeconomic effects of these scenarios are the reduction of nominal and real GDP, total absorption and private consumption of households.


خالقی، سعیده، بزازان، فاطمه و مدنی، شیما. (1394). اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید بخش کشاورزی و بر اقتصاد ایران (رویکرد ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی). تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی، (25)7، 135-113.
خلیلیان، صادق، شمشادی، کتایون، مرتضوی، سید ابوالقاسم و احمدیان، مجید. (1393). بررسی اثرات رفاهی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم بر روی محصول گندم در ایران. اقتصاد و توسعه‌ کشاورزی، 3، 300-292.
متوسلی، محمود و فولادی، معصومه. (1385)، بررسی آثار افزایش قیمت جهانی نفت بر تولید ناخالص داخلی و اشتغال در ایران با استفاده از یک مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌ای. تحقیقات اقتصادی، 76، 76-51.
مومنی، سکینه و منصور زیبایی (1392). اثرات بالقوه‌ی تغییر اقلیم بر کشاورزی استان فارس. اقتصاد و توسعه‌ کشاورزی، 3، 179-169.
Arndt, CH. Asante, F. and Thurlow, J. (2015). Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy, Sustainability, 7: 7214-7231.
Ayenew, A. B. (2011). Economic implications of climate change in Ethiopia: A computable general equilibrium analysis. A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of Addis Ababa University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Economics (Resource and Environmental Economics stream).
Bandara, J. S. and Cai, Y. (2014). The Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Productivity, Food Prices and Food Security in South Asia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 44(4): 451-465.
Berndt, E. R. and Jorgenson, D. W. (1973). Production Structure. In Jorgenson, D. W. & H. S. Houthakker (Eds). U. S. energy resources and economic growth. Washington energy policy project.
Bezabih, M., Chambwera, M. and Stage, J. (2011). Climate Change and Total Factor Productivity in the Tanzanian Economy, Climate Policy, 11(6): 1289-1302.
Gebreegziabher, Z., Stage, J., Mekonnen, A. and Alemu, A. (2011). Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis, Environment for Development, Discussion Paper Series.
Hudson, E. A. and Jorgenson, D. W. (1978). The Economic Impact of Policies to Reduce U. S. Energy Growth, Resources and Energy, 1(3): 205-229.
Khaleghi, S., Fatemeh B., and Shima M. (2015). The effect of climate change on agricultural production and the Iranian economy (social accounting matrix approach), Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 7(25): 135-113. [In Persian]
Khalilian, S., Shamshadi, K., Mortazavi S. A., and Ahmadian, M. (2014). A Study of the Welfare Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Iran, The Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, 28(3): 300-292. [In Persian]
Kunimitsu, Y. (2015). Regional Impacts of Long-term Climate Change on Rice Production and Agricultural Income: Evidence from Computable General Equilibrium Analysis, JARQ, 49 (2): 173–185.
Lofgren, H. and El-Said, M. (1999). A general Equilibrium Analysis of Alternative Scenarios for Food Subsidy Reform in Egypt. International Food Policy Research Institute. Washington, D. C.
Johansen, L. (1960). A multisectoral study of economic growth; Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A. (1999). Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter? World Bank Research Observer, 14(2): 277–293.
Momeni, S., and Zibaei, M. (2013). Potential effects of climate change on agriculture in Fars province. The Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, 27(3): 179-169. [In Persian]
Motevaseli, M., and Fouladi, M. (2006). Investigating the effects of rising global oil prices on GDP and employment in Iran using a general computational equilibrium model, Journal of Economic Research, 76: 76-51. [In Persian]
National Climate Change Office of Iran; NCCOI (2014). Third National Communication to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Department of Environment.
Sassi, M. and Cardaci, A. (2013). Impact of Rainfall Pattern on Cereal Market and Food Security in Sudan: Stochastic Approach and CGE Model. Food Policy, 43: 321-331.
Tebelo, E. E. (2008). Global Climate Change and Its economic impact on SubSaharan Africa: Simulation of a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Ethiopia. Master Thesis, Department of Economics Faculty of Social Science, University of Oslo.
Yalew, A. W. (2016). Economy-wide Effects of Climate Change in Ethiopia, International Conference on Economic Modeling (EcoMod2016), Lisbon, Portugal, July 6-8.
Zakaria A. I. (2014). Climate change, agricultural productivity and poverty in Ghana’s context: macro-micro analysis. A dissertation submitted to the graduate school for international development and cooperation of Hiroshima University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of doctor of philosophy.