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Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 43-70
Seyyed Hossein Mirjalili
Volume 7, Issue 26 , October 2007, , Pages 43-75
Abstract
The history is a valuable mine of human experience and historical school was one of the heterodox schools of economic thought that by criticizing the teachings of classical school, has used history and it’s objective investigation as a cornerstone for the revise of political economy. The most important ...
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The history is a valuable mine of human experience and historical school was one of the heterodox schools of economic thought that by criticizing the teachings of classical school, has used history and it’s objective investigation as a cornerstone for the revise of political economy. The most important criticism of historical school to classical school are: universalism, imperfect psychology based on self-interest and extremism in deductive method. On the one side, historical method is in conflict to Austrian school and on the other hand was a background for the emergence of American Institutional school. The most important teachings of historical school are: Application of historical method in the analysis of economic phenomenon, using inductive method, using economic statistics, belief on the uniqueness of each economy and thus the necessity of indigenous development model, avoiding abstract models in economic analysis, the necessity of finding the interaction of economic phenomenon to non-economic factors and an endeavor to understand the evolution of economies. In this paper by using the teachings of historical school, we argued that adopting historical method, provide the possibility of analyzing historical backwardness of Iranian Economy, Understanding evolutionary structure of Iranian Economy and preparing indigenous model of economic development in Iran.
Jamshid Pazhoyan; Majid Madah
Volume 6, Issue 20 , April 2006, , Pages 43-70
Reza Shiva; Mohammad Hossein Rahmati; Ali Ebadi
Abstract
In this paper, we explore the level of monopoly in petrochemical products of Iran and the fluctuations of price using the trading data of these products in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME). Considering the level of monopoly in this market, we are looking for a solution that lowers the gap between price ...
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In this paper, we explore the level of monopoly in petrochemical products of Iran and the fluctuations of price using the trading data of these products in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME). Considering the level of monopoly in this market, we are looking for a solution that lowers the gap between price and quantity of current market with those of perfect competition market. Our solution is termed “Guarantee” which is a kind of security that is issued in a quantity that equates supply to market demand in the next period. This creates a two-stage game in which we satisfy the expectations for the demand of second stage in the first stage. We develop a model and show that in this solution, the equilibrium will have lower price and higher quantity in which only the shocks of the second stage are affecting equilibrium price and quantity. Thus, in a situation without an unexpected shock, the price and quantity of market will be equal to those of perfect competition equilibrium. Moreover, we examine the underlying prediction of this new tool by analyzing the performance of an existing security called “Salaf”. These two have the nature of future trading in common and our empirical test show that introducing “Salaf” lowers prices, as predicted by theory.
Erfan Memarian; Seyed Ahmad Reza Jalali Naeini
Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 45-69
Abstract
In this paper, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, and quarterly series of statistics in the behavior of Iran's trade-balance against its main Trade partners have been dynamically analyzed and real effective exchange rate (REER) has been calculated as an important index and a determinant ...
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In this paper, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, and quarterly series of statistics in the behavior of Iran's trade-balance against its main Trade partners have been dynamically analyzed and real effective exchange rate (REER) has been calculated as an important index and a determinant in the country's trade-balance fluctuations. The results indicate a long-run equilibrium among variables of the aggregate trade-balance pattern.
The dynamic effects among variables, based on impulse-response functions (IRFs) were analyzed as a result, the effect of devaluation on aggregate trade-balance in short-run confirms J-curve hypothesis. The decline trend for J-curve in the research has been estimated for two quarters of which nominal rigidity of import values in the international trade-balance, i.e, dependency of domestic sector on imports and inelastic real exchange rate on non-oil export sector are of its crucial reasons.
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Volume 5, Issue 19 , January 2006, , Pages 45-79
Parviz Mohammadzadeh; Khaled Ahmadzadeh
Volume 6, Issue 22 , October 2006, , Pages 45-70
Abstract
The study of the relationship between age structure of population with macroeconomic variables and the study of its effects on the growth and development of Iran, has remained so far not to emphasized on. Iran is experiencing an increasing rate of population growth and facing the problems caused by it, ...
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The study of the relationship between age structure of population with macroeconomic variables and the study of its effects on the growth and development of Iran, has remained so far not to emphasized on. Iran is experiencing an increasing rate of population growth and facing the problems caused by it, the aftermaths of which will continue well in to the next decades. This study is functional and documental. From the results, it is inferred that the marginal propensity of consumption in equations relating to age groups of population varies in the long term and with confirmation of the long term relation in the function of consumption expenditures of the private sector, the rate of balancing is slow and variable as well. In the process of economic policy making, the age distribution of population should be taken in to account, so that the measures taken in the way of accelerating of economic growth and planning related to it will accord with the population growth and the increasing changes occurred in its structure.
Karim Emami
Abstract
Estimations and calculations show that the ICT market in Iran was around 320 billion IRRs in 2015, which is about 2.6% of gross domestic production (GPD). at the end of the sixth plan for social and economic development of Iran, it has been set that this amount should be increased to be more ...
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Estimations and calculations show that the ICT market in Iran was around 320 billion IRRs in 2015, which is about 2.6% of gross domestic production (GPD). at the end of the sixth plan for social and economic development of Iran, it has been set that this amount should be increased to be more than 5% of GDP and to be about 1000 billion IRRs. The present study will answer the following two questions. 1- Is increasing the share of ICT sector in GDP necessary? 2- How much does the economic growth change with one percentage increase in share of ICT sector in GDP? To answer these two questions, contribution of ICT sector on economic growth in Iran is first calculated through two methods of actual and potential contribution and then compared with each other. The results show that average GDP growth in Iran is about 3.8% for the period of 1990-2015 and, based on growth accounting, the potential contribution of ICT on economic growth is about half a percent. Actual contribution of ICT sector on growth has been higher than the potential share, except for years 1990 to 1992. Therefore, increasing value added of ICT sector increases GDP more than the increase of the value added of ICT sector, which is due to knowledge, market and network spillovers. Accordingly, increasing share of ICT sector in GDP is necessary during the sixth plan for economic development in Iran. Moreover, one percent increase in share of ICT sector in GDP increases economic growth at a rate of 0.93 percent.
Rahman Khoshakhlagh; Rahim Dallai Esfahani; Reza Moosavi Mohsseni
Volume 9, Issue 33 , July 2009, , Pages 47-70
Abstract
This paper has assessed the neutrality of money in Iran’s economy by using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Regarding this assessment, initially a computable general equilibrium was organized in which the financial market plays an essential role. Then, for the calibration of the coefficients, ...
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This paper has assessed the neutrality of money in Iran’s economy by using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Regarding this assessment, initially a computable general equilibrium was organized in which the financial market plays an essential role. Then, for the calibration of the coefficients, in addition to organizing a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), a financial balance sheet was also provided. In this paper, the tool of reserve requirement rate is being used as instrumental variable representing monetary policy. The result of this research indicates that the monetary policies have had significant effect on Iran’s economy.
There has been a reverse relationship between the changes in reserve requirement rate and gross national product. One of the other finding of this research is that changes in monetary tool has significant effects on GNP and so money is not neutral in Iran’s economy especially when a general equilibrium type of model is being applied. For solving the model the GAMS software and Non-Linear Programming (NLP) method were used.
Nader Gholi Ghourchian; Masoud Karbasian
Volume 7, Issue 25 , July 2007, , Pages 47-73
Abstract
The main motive to this research is to introduce an appropriate model best tailored for the national customs management based on the world's customs organizations management system. To come up with the above target, close to all the evolutions in the customs administrations around the world such as Globalization, ...
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The main motive to this research is to introduce an appropriate model best tailored for the national customs management based on the world's customs organizations management system. To come up with the above target, close to all the evolutions in the customs administrations around the world such as Globalization, Upsurge in Competitiveness, Improvements in Information & Telecommunication Technology and its impact on the functionality of the customs administrations is analyzed whilst by taking on a comparative study of the customs management systems in a host of customs administrations the main and effectual factors to the customs management system is extrapolated. The Customs Management Excellence Cycle Model (CMECM) is driven based on the researcher's scientific literature, his past research experiences, the Customs Excellence Cycle, and ultimately the Questionnaires designed and shared with both national and overseas elites. The CMECM developed per se for Customs Management in 21'th century has its main pillars over 8 criterion and 53 indicators. The model and its proposed factors were evaluated by the elites and with the aid of the "Descriptive-Surveillance" method in the field and resolutely endorsed consensually. - Having in disposal the Customs Management Excellence Cycle Model (CMECM) we would be able to benchmark the Customs functional offices both domestically and internationally and specify the rankings and nominate the superior offices in a row. - In general, Customs Management Excellence Cycle (CMECM) can be used for alleviating and ultimately uprooting the points of susceptibility within domestic Customs offices. - Customs Management Excellence Cycle (CMECM) can be used in order to assess the function of each customs office in a different time span.
Gholamreza Keshavarz Haddad; Davood Cheraghi
Volume 7, Issue 24 , April 2007, , Pages 47-75
Abstract
Creating new opportunities and utilizing of existing production potentials are the main determinants of demands for labor. In Iran's economy, limitations of markets, excess capacities in some of industries are prevalent. Increases in final demand and capital formations reflects domestic, demand and net ...
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Creating new opportunities and utilizing of existing production potentials are the main determinants of demands for labor. In Iran's economy, limitations of markets, excess capacities in some of industries are prevalent. Increases in final demand and capital formations reflects domestic, demand and net exports is the foreign demand for output, and thereby, creation of job opportunities. Making use of a 24 sectors Input-output index (1996) of Iran, this paper ranks the output and employment capacities of Iran's economy. Our developed Indicators consist of, backward and forward linkages, and final demand elasticity's of output and employment. Findings indicate that, since in the majority of specified sectors, employment elasticity's are less than output elasticity's, growth oriented policies necessarily are not employment creator. Among the specified sectors of the economy, food industries, residential and infrastructural construction, road transportation services, business services and mineral metals are identified as key factors for job opportunities.
hanieh safamanesh; Gholamreza Keshavarz Haddad; Khosrow Piraee; hashem Zare
Abstract
In consumption demand studies, we can consider that choice of quality is affected by consumption decisions (whether to consume or not). The term “quality” refers to any subjective factor that motivates consumers to pay for a good more than its substitutes. Any change in a consumption explanatory ...
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In consumption demand studies, we can consider that choice of quality is affected by consumption decisions (whether to consume or not). The term “quality” refers to any subjective factor that motivates consumers to pay for a good more than its substitutes. Any change in a consumption explanatory variable has two effects: 1) the probability of consuming the good and 2) considerations of quality. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of factors such as demographics and socio-economic factors on choice of quality in meat consumption including livestock and aggregated meat (livestock, poultry and aquatic). Furthermore, we estimate quality elasticities using cross-sectional survey data for year 2014 among Iranian rural and urban households. The paper applies Heckman two-step method to estimate unknown parameters of participation and consumption equation. Our findings show that the most important variable affecting the choice of meat quality for consumption is household income. In this study, the quality elasticity of income in meat consumption is positive in all samples and there are other variables (gender, age and education of household breadwinner) which have significant effect on quality choice in meat consumption.
Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Haniye Firoozjang
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 49-74
Abstract
Illegal importation of goods (smuggling), is one of the most important barrier of economic growth in Iran. Smuggling is a serious challenge to development of industrial sector and entrepreneurship and a barrier to the expansion of productive capacity of Iranian Economy. Iranian textile industry ...
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Illegal importation of goods (smuggling), is one of the most important barrier of economic growth in Iran. Smuggling is a serious challenge to development of industrial sector and entrepreneurship and a barrier to the expansion of productive capacity of Iranian Economy. Iranian textile industry is adversely affected by smuggling. In addition to smuggling, old and worn machinery, low productivity, lack of access to liquidity and low scale of production are the main problems of the Iranian textile industry. In this paper we attempt to evaluate the effects of smuggling on productivity of Iranian textile industry during the period 1996-2007. To achieve this goal, we first estimate the volume of smuggling and then, by applying the ARDL method, we analyze the effects of smuggling on the productivity of textile industry. Our findings indicate that smuggling has a significant and negative effect on productivity growth of Iranian textile industry.
Ali Taiebnia; Fatemeh Ghasemi
Volume 6, Issue 23 , January 2007, , Pages 49-80
Abstract
Existing literature on the role of oil price fluctuations has mainly focused on the importer countries and few attempts have been done to analyze the impact of the variability on the oil revenues from the oil producing countries' point of view. So in this study, the role of oil price shocks ...
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Existing literature on the role of oil price fluctuations has mainly focused on the importer countries and few attempts have been done to analyze the impact of the variability on the oil revenues from the oil producing countries' point of view. So in this study, the role of oil price shocks in shaping the fluctuations in Iran's economy by using the seasonal data from 1971– 2003 have analyzed. To this end, at first we should recognize the business cycles in Iran's economy, then by using selective statistical indicators, cyclical behavior of effective key variables on business cycles is computed and analyzed. At the second step, a business cycle model using Vector Auto regression (VAR) is specified and the effects of oil price shocks are analyzed. The results of the research have shown that economy of Iran has experienced seven business cycles and oil factor among other effective factors has played an important role on causing booms and recessions. The result of estimation on VAR model and evaluating the impact of several shocks on production fluctuations indicates that oil price shocks have a long run impact on business cycles in Iran's economy and this effect decreases slowly during the time. In addition, this shocks account for %25 of the production fluctuations. While the instability share of other variables of the model on the production are worthless.
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Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2002, , Pages 49-72
Teymoor Mohammadi; Amir Gholami
Volume 8, Issue 29 , July 2008, , Pages 49-74
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to examine the effects of exchange rate unification on macroeconomic variables (inflation, unemployment and output) by applying a Vector Autoregression model to Iran’s economy. Variables are GDP, Price level, Unemployment and exchange rate and data belongs to the ...
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The purpose of this article is to examine the effects of exchange rate unification on macroeconomic variables (inflation, unemployment and output) by applying a Vector Autoregression model to Iran’s economy. Variables are GDP, Price level, Unemployment and exchange rate and data belongs to the priod 1961-2001.
We can Summerize the results of this research as follows:
1) Official exchange rate is significantly correlated with consumer price index, so that exchange rate shocks resulting from Unification positively affects price level within three periods.
2) Official exchange rate is not significantly correlated with the real GDP.
3) Official exchange rate is not significantly correlated with the unemployment rate.
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Volume 5, Issue 18 , October 2005, , Pages 49-80
Ameneh Khoshbakht; Mohammad Akhbari
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, , Pages 51-82
Abstract
In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the exchange rate pass-through to consumer and import price indexes by utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, Impulse Response Functions and Choleskey Ordering Variance Decomposition Analysis on a seasonal basis during 1990 to 2004.
The ...
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In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the exchange rate pass-through to consumer and import price indexes by utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, Impulse Response Functions and Choleskey Ordering Variance Decomposition Analysis on a seasonal basis during 1990 to 2004.
The results show that, the exchange rate pass-through to import price index is stronger in relation to consumer price index. This fact has relatively higher share of tradable goods in import conformity with the price index as compared to the consumer price index as a whole. On the other hand, the impact of money supply shocks on the consumer price index in comparison with import price index is much stronger and faster. This phenomenon is important for the monetary policy makers. So the low amount of exchange rate pass- through provides more opportunity to follow an independent monetary policy, specially, through inflation targeting approach.
Nasrin Rezaee-Moghaddam; Mahdi Mostafavi; Ali Cheshmi
Abstract
Sustaining long-term price stability, even when the central bank does not adopt an explicit inflation targeting policy, is known as the primary objective of monetary policy. Moreover, due to the lags of monetary policy, choosing appropriate measure of inflation is very important. Thus, in many countries, ...
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Sustaining long-term price stability, even when the central bank does not adopt an explicit inflation targeting policy, is known as the primary objective of monetary policy. Moreover, due to the lags of monetary policy, choosing appropriate measure of inflation is very important. Thus, in many countries, core inflation is widely calculated as an indicator that clarifies long-term trend of inflation and it is used to predict inflation and also to have an inflation target. The concept of core inflation and its efficiency in identifying long-term inflation trend can help policy-makers to have a better understanding of inflation components. Inflation in Iran has been influenced by many internal and external shocks. In this study, core inflation in Iran is estimated by using the Kalman filter in the context of structural time series during the period of 1974-2011. Based on the result, core inflation is affected by long-run effects of variables such as monetary base and liquidity and it has fluctuations like the measured inflation and the value of core inflation on average in the period under study is 15 percent.
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Volume 4, Issue 15 , January 2005, , Pages 53-74
Elham Farzanegan
Abstract
The information diffusion and interactions within financial markets have a significant impact on the price discovery process and the sentiment and risk dispersion. Despite its importance, limited research has been conducted on information flow dynamics within the Tehran Stock Exchange, which is ...
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The information diffusion and interactions within financial markets have a significant impact on the price discovery process and the sentiment and risk dispersion. Despite its importance, limited research has been conducted on information flow dynamics within the Tehran Stock Exchange, which is a vital component of Iran's capital market. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the information flow dynamics among 39 major industries from March 27, 2010, to June 21, 2023. Effective transfer entropy is employed to quantify the intensity of information flow between industry indices. Sequence of information matrices are constructed using rolling one-week windows over one-year periods. Given the occurrence of critical events during the research period, their influence on information flow dynamics is analyzed using Frobenius distance-based k-nearest neighbor networks, Influence Strength analysis, and threshold networks. The findings reveal that the effective transfer entropy matrix exhibits time-varying characteristics and remains stable throughout most periods. Furthermore, critical events significantly impact information flow dynamics, with abnormal values of Influence Strength associated with market volatility and major events. Additionally, the dominant source of information in the information flow network changes over time, highlighting the transient nature of industry dominance within the network.IntroductionThe diffusion of information and interactions within financial markets greatly influences the price discovery process and affects sentiment and risk dispersion. The potential for growth in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) through the introduction of innovative financial instruments can offer investors additional investment opportunities. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of information transmission within the market aids investors in decision-making.Existing literature suggests that stock price volatilities are interconnected, and stocks within the same industry often exhibit high correlations. Additionally, industry stock price indexes within the market can serve as leading indicators of economic activity. Analyzing the information flow network at the industry index level holds significant implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers seeking to devise appropriate risk-mitigating strategies, especially industry sector rotation strategies.Despite the Tehran Stock Exchange being a vital component of Iran's capital market, there has been limited research on the information flow network between industries and its time-varying characteristics. Furthermore, despite significant events occurring during the specified sample period, there is a lack of empirical evidence regarding their impacts on information flow within the Tehran securities market.Methods and MaterialIn this research, the dynamics of information flow between the 39 major industries are investigated from March 27, 2010, to June 21, 2023. Following Ni (2023), the Effective transfer entropy that measures the intensity of information flow between industries indices is calculated. Then the sequence of information matrices is created by rolling a one-week calculation window. In this paper, the calculation window of 237-trading day widths and the rolling window of 5-day widths are used to calculate the information matrices of length 591. Moreover, using quantiles of return series, and , the information matrix sequences are constructed.Given that the research period encompasses critical events, their influence on information flow is examined using various methodologies, including the Frobenius distance-based k-nearest neighbor network, Influence Strength (IS) analysis, and a threshold-directed network of information matrices. Results and DiscussionUpon depicting the Frobenius distance matrix based on Q1, significant shifts in the distance between the information matrices are observed. These shifts often coincide with critical events that have impacted the market.The IS series graph over the research period reveals several local peaks. For some peaks, no significant events occurred during the research period. Peak 2, however, corresponds to severe market fluctuations and turmoil, primarily stemming from the global impact of the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, this time window aligns with the initial period of oil and petrochemical sanctions against Iran, leading to a decline in the total index of the TSE. Peak 4 reflects a decrease in the TSE's total index following Iran's nuclear agreement with the P5+1 in 2015 (post-JCPOA). During peak period 5, coinciding with the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the re-imposition of all US sanctions, the TSE's total index experienced a drop. Peaks 1, 3, and 7 correspond to the bursting of stock price bubbles in 2009, 2013, and 2020, respectively.The findings also highlight that the window corresponding to the maximum value of IS (0.1757) is from 31/12/2012 to 7/1/2014, coinciding with the bursting of the stock price bubble in January 2014. Peak 6 corresponds to the window from 19/7/2020 to 7/7/2021, which includes the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Lastly, from 1/6/2022 to 3/6/2023, the government's decision to abolish the preferential exchange rate for importing basic goods negatively affected the prices of some listed companies in the TSE and the indexes of related industries. Comparing the patterns of IS calculated based on Q1 vs. Q2 demonstrates the correspondence between the local peaks.On the other hand, examining the Financial industry (node 37), the series reached its peak during 2/2/2016-25/1/2017. During this period, the TSE faced a significant decline in the total index due to uncertainty caused by the JCPOA. Analysis of the directional network of the information matrix, filtered with a threshold of 0.01, reveals that in the post-JCPOA period, there is an information flow between the Financial industry and all other industries except the Furniture industry (node 20) and Peymankari industry (node 26).Furthermore, aside from node 37, which serves as the central node during this period, node 34 (Banking industry, deg = 34), node 39 (EstekrajeNaft industry, deg=33), and node 35 (SayerMali industry, deg =32) also exhibit high degrees. Additionally, the network constructed from the information matrix corresponding to peak 6 indicates several central nodes. However, during the time window corresponding to peak 6, node 24 (Daroee industry) with the highest (0.0105) exerts the strongest influence on the network.The results also demonstrate that for certain industries, such as the Pharmaceutical industry, the value of increased during the 19/1/2016-11/1/2017 period, corresponding to the post-JCPOA era. However, for other industries, the maximum value of occurred mainly during other critical periods, such as the stock price bubble bursts in 2010 and 2014 and the imposition of new sanctions against Iran..ConclusionThe findings indicate that the effective transfer entropy matrix exhibits time-varying characteristics and remains stable over the majority of periods. Additionally, critical events have notably impacted the dynamics of information flow, with abnormal values of Influence Strength correlating with market volatility and significant events. Moreover, the primary source of information in the sequence of the information flow network evolves over time, suggesting that the dominant industry in the network is not consistently sustainable.
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Volume 4, Issue 14 , October 2004, , Pages 55-70
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Volume 4, Issue 13 , July 2004, , Pages 55-88
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Volume 6, Issue 21 , July 2006, , Pages 57-79
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani; Javid Bahrami; Majid Omidi
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of rule-based prudential policies on the banks competition in the deposit market. Using the imperfect competition structure and focusing on heterogeneous banks, we develop a partial equilibrium model, under which implications of how capital adequacy ratio regulation ...
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This paper investigates the effects of rule-based prudential policies on the banks competition in the deposit market. Using the imperfect competition structure and focusing on heterogeneous banks, we develop a partial equilibrium model, under which implications of how capital adequacy ratio regulation is implemented either discriminatory between banks (micro) or non-discriminatory and uniformly for all banks (macro) will be analyzed. Among the features that are emphasized in this analytical model is the role of self-regulation of bank capital in building confidence in the banking network in a non-linear manner. This, in a range of capital adequacy ratios, has featured the use of that prudential policy tool as a self-defeating one for the policymaker's goal in curbing the portion of high-risk projects in the targeted bank's assets portfolio. Further, a channel to explain the role of monetary policy in establishing stability or fragility of the banking network is introduced. In particular, the role of investors' degree of risk aversion in motivating banks to set their monitoring efforts has been evaluated.
