Mahdi Taghavi; Azadmehr Kahram; Parvaneh Salatin
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 15-50
Abstract
The terms of trade is one of the important tools for the macro-economic analysis and the most principle issue in this analysis is a dual relationship between the terms of trade and the exchange rate. The changes in the relative prices are the consequent of the fluctuations in the terms of ...
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The terms of trade is one of the important tools for the macro-economic analysis and the most principle issue in this analysis is a dual relationship between the terms of trade and the exchange rate. The changes in the relative prices are the consequent of the fluctuations in the terms of trade and exchange rate.
This paper focuses on the short-run and long-run effects of the terms of trade on the exchange rate in Iran's economy during 1959-2004,by using the:ARDL(Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model),VECM(Vector Error Correction Model)and the impulse response function of VAR(Vector Auto-Regressive).
The results show that although there is a relationship between the terms of trade and exchange rate but the impact of the terms of trade shocks on the exchange rate fluctuation is petty and the main changes of exchange rate in Iran is the consequent of itself.GDP has a positive effec
on the terms of trade improvement and congruently the terms of trade improvement reduces inflation. The other result signifies that the terms of trade has a negative effect on the economic growth. This is the consequent of adoption of wrong economic –commercial policy.
Ameneh Khoshbakht; Mohammad Akhbari
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 51-82
Abstract
In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the exchange rate pass-through to consumer and import price indexes by utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, Impulse Response Functions and Choleskey Ordering Variance Decomposition Analysis on a seasonal basis during 1990 to 2004.
The ...
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In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the exchange rate pass-through to consumer and import price indexes by utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, Impulse Response Functions and Choleskey Ordering Variance Decomposition Analysis on a seasonal basis during 1990 to 2004.
The results show that, the exchange rate pass-through to import price index is stronger in relation to consumer price index. This fact has relatively higher share of tradable goods in import conformity with the price index as compared to the consumer price index as a whole. On the other hand, the impact of money supply shocks on the consumer price index in comparison with import price index is much stronger and faster. This phenomenon is important for the monetary policy makers. So the low amount of exchange rate pass- through provides more opportunity to follow an independent monetary policy, specially, through inflation targeting approach.
Bijan Bid Abad; Kambiz Peykarjoo
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 83-117
Abstract
This study recognizes and analyzes the basic main factors influencing demand and supply of petroleum; also in addition, with the use of analysis of supply surplus impact on global petroleum market, designs a model for simulation and prediction of oil price.
In this model, through the use of modification ...
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This study recognizes and analyzes the basic main factors influencing demand and supply of petroleum; also in addition, with the use of analysis of supply surplus impact on global petroleum market, designs a model for simulation and prediction of oil price.
In this model, through the use of modification method of Dynamic Disequilibrium Adjustment Model (DDAM), natural gas price variables, global gross domestic product (GDP),GDP of oil producing countries, production capacity of petroleum, oil supply surplus in market and global oil price, demand and supply of petroleum are being presented. The behaviour of natural gas market are transferred meaningfully to theoil market and cause changes in oil price.
In the dynamic simulations of model, the impacts of various shocks on supply and demand of oil prices are investigated and it will be predicted for the years 2008 till 2010. So, the designed model indicates that is has
proved to have the ability to analyze political shocks and to predict oil prices and can be used in policy making and oil price prediction too.
As a result, the model prediction shows that in the years 2008-2010 the oil price will partly go downward, frontier 100$, however this reduction will not reach to the price fall in the 1990 decade.
Ali Arabmazar Yazdi; Leila Khodkari
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 119-142
Abstract
Laundering money is a way to use legally dirty money obtained from illegal actions, so this will threat the nature of economic activities.
In this paper, in addition to surveying of studies related to underground economy, will be calculated the capacity of dirty money provided in the illegal economy ...
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Laundering money is a way to use legally dirty money obtained from illegal actions, so this will threat the nature of economic activities.
In this paper, in addition to surveying of studies related to underground economy, will be calculated the capacity of dirty money provided in the illegal economy in Iran during 1352-80 by selecting one of the models in these studies and using it in the money demand function.
This estimation shows that the capacity of dirty money has been increased recently and there is a significant relationship between growth of money demand and extension of underground economy.
These results should be paide especial attention by policymakers to reduce the underground economy and to create some obstacles to not enter dirty money to economy.
Mostafa Emadzadeh; Rouhollah Shahnazi
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 143-175
Abstract
Knowledge based economy is directly based on production, distribution and consumption of knowledge and information. Knowledge based and information economy was entered in American economic literature in 1960, but 90,s revolutions remember this word.
At first, in this article we defines the types of ...
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Knowledge based economy is directly based on production, distribution and consumption of knowledge and information. Knowledge based and information economy was entered in American economic literature in 1960, but 90,s revolutions remember this word.
At first, in this article we defines the types of knowledge and knowledge based economy, then study essential processes in the knowledge-based economy, knowledge measurement indices and consider knowledge based economy programs in some successful countries. Also, few suggestions for improving the structure of knowledge-based economy have been presented. Also the rank of Iran in the World Bank knowledge based methodology and characteristics of knowledge-based economy in comparison with three groups candidate countries and main challenges in this view discussed.
The results show that two kinds of problems exist in knowledge based economy in Iran. First, absolute amount of some indices knowledge based economy are low. Second, these indices are unbalance in Iran.
Ali Asghar Anvari Rostami; Behrouz Lari Semnani
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 177-218
Abstract
In this paper, we intends to find the answer to two important questions; 1. Is there any significant relationship between selected & important non-stock exchange investments and investment in stock exchange? 2. Does selected non-stock exchange investments affect attractiveness of the stock exchange? ...
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In this paper, we intends to find the answer to two important questions; 1. Is there any significant relationship between selected & important non-stock exchange investments and investment in stock exchange? 2. Does selected non-stock exchange investments affect attractiveness of the stock exchange? For this aim four kinds of such investments have been selected; 1. Investment in monopolized governmental products offering to public (Mobile Cimcard); 2. Investment in a kind of bond (cooporation security); 3. Investment in bank deposit; and 4. Investment in real assets (real estate) so as to assess the relations between them and the main indexs of attraction; “Liquidity” and “Capitalization” in Tehran Stock Exchange. The four-sided results shows: 1. Forward selling of Cimcard affects significantly both indexs of attraction. Significant relation between real assets (real estate) and liquidity have observed but not with capitalization. Investment in bank deposit has shown significant relation with both liquidity and capitalization. Issuing cooporation security hasn’t shown significant relation with them.
Ghassem Mohsseni Demneh
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 219-245
Abstract
As a response to critiques about the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Ross (1976) proposed Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as an alternative model with fewer assumptions, and use of multi risk factors affecting assets prices instead of one. This article will introduce a two stage method normally called ...
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As a response to critiques about the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Ross (1976) proposed Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) as an alternative model with fewer assumptions, and use of multi risk factors affecting assets prices instead of one. This article will introduce a two stage method normally called Fama-Macbeth method, to test APT. Factors affecting assets prices can be choosed among macroeconomic variables, or by using statistical techniques. The way to estimate factor scores, factor loads, and risk premiums using these two methods is explained; and at the end, APT is tested using real data’s from Tehran Stock Exchange.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Mani Motameni
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 247-261
Abstract
The volatility feedback has been tested, using the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) returns, during 1992-2006. According to the theory, predictable volatility has a positive and significant effect, while the unpredicted volatility will reduce the stock returns. In order to test the hypothesis, the EGARCH-M ...
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The volatility feedback has been tested, using the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) returns, during 1992-2006. According to the theory, predictable volatility has a positive and significant effect, while the unpredicted volatility will reduce the stock returns. In order to test the hypothesis, the EGARCH-M model is used. The results indicate that there has not been a significant relationship between predictable volatility and returns, while the unpredicted volatility has had significant negative effect.
Mohammad Reza Alirezaie; Mohssen Afsharian; Vahid Taslimi
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 263-283
Abstract
Performance evaluation of a Decision Making Unit (DMU) relative to all other DMUs is a competitive process that Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique can measure it with efficiency improvement approaches for each DMUs. But when there are some extraordinary DMUs, the competitive problem will be replaced ...
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Performance evaluation of a Decision Making Unit (DMU) relative to all other DMUs is a competitive process that Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique can measure it with efficiency improvement approaches for each DMUs. But when there are some extraordinary DMUs, the competitive problem will be replaced with monopoly in the process of evaluation and in this case our basic DEA models make invalid efficiency improvement results for DMUs.
In this paper, we review these problems in basic DEA models and introduce a DEA model for evaluating DMUs under this circumstance. Also, the model is employed to measure the bank branches efficiency of a commercial banks.
Mohsen Renani; Iman Bastanifar
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 285-331
Abstract
This paper has surveyed the social effects of public policies, with introducing the concept of the catallaxy, which has been introduced at first by the famous institutional economist, Fredrick August von Hayek.
For this, at first, we have introduced the economic concepts of the justice and have shown ...
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This paper has surveyed the social effects of public policies, with introducing the concept of the catallaxy, which has been introduced at first by the famous institutional economist, Fredrick August von Hayek.
For this, at first, we have introduced the economic concepts of the justice and have shown that for providing justice, economic effectiveness must be undertaken. Then, with the introducing of the catallaxy and its concept, structure, characteristics, parts, and mechanism, the reader will find the importance of catallaxy and its role on the economy. The reader also will find that the intervention on catallaxy will decrease the number of possible options for economic agencies and it means the lower efficiency of the economic policies. Then with applying the common analytical economic instruments, we have shown that decreasing of efficiency led to decrease the social justice. Along with introducing the characteristics of the city as one of the catallaxy examples, we have introduced an Autoregressive
Model of relation between catallaxy interventions and inequality in urban services for the ten urban districts of Isfahan city.
We estimated the model by using the panel data techniques for the period of 1996-2005. The results have shown that inequality in urban services in Isfahan is the results of the lagged structure of inequality in urban services, on one hand, the share of catallaxy confusing revenues of the Isfahan Municipality, on the other hand.
Abass Salimian; Fazeleh Khadem
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, Pages 333-363
Abstract
In this paper, estimating productivity is done through, using both, the index approaches and productivity function. In the first approach, partial productivity of the inputs (labor, capital and materials) are measured as a rating of the output to the appropriate inputs, but in the later one the marginal ...
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In this paper, estimating productivity is done through, using both, the index approaches and productivity function. In the first approach, partial productivity of the inputs (labor, capital and materials) are measured as a rating of the output to the appropriate inputs, but in the later one the marginal productivity are obtained using the estimated factor elasticities. Having the results and in the final step, we try to analyze the effect of the automobile import on the productivity.
The results show that partial factor productivity has a disorder trend like pattern on the period 1973-2000. Also, a comparison between marginal and average productivity, indicates that the corporation is operating at the region, in which marginal product of all inputs are non-negative. It must be noted that there is a negative effect from the import on the productivity of the corporation.
