Mohammad Reza Farzaneh; Ali Bagheri; Mohammadhossein Ramezani Ghavamabadi
Abstract
Unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater resources has resulted in increasing spread of economic, social and ecological consequences in Iran. Particularly, since the adoption of "Protection of groundwater resources of Iran Act" (passed in 1966), numerous policies and laws with the aim of protecting groundwater ...
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Unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater resources has resulted in increasing spread of economic, social and ecological consequences in Iran. Particularly, since the adoption of "Protection of groundwater resources of Iran Act" (passed in 1966), numerous policies and laws with the aim of protecting groundwater resources have been passed and enforced; however, the level of groundwater table has been continuously decreasing while the number of prohibited plains have been increasing. So, the question arises that where the problem is originated from; and despite nearly 50 years of policy-making, legislation and implementation, why are groundwater resources not protected, but the situation has been getting worse and worse. Relying on the premises of institutional theories, the present paper will address the context and features of water bodies based on three components of mental models, structures, and the system of benefit and power distribution. The results show that the components of institutional environment are inconsistent with the context of legality.
Ali Ghanbari; Aniseh Nikravan; Lotfali Agheli
Volume 10, Issue 39 , January 2011, , Pages 59-82
Karim Emami; Azadeh Mehrabian
Volume 10, Issue 36 , April 2010, , Pages 59-86
Abstract
One of the most important economic challenges that every economy of the world is facing is how to reach to a sustained growth in the long run. The aim of this research is to survey about the effects of business cycle volatility on economic growth in Iran from 1340 to 1387. Some of the variables used ...
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One of the most important economic challenges that every economy of the world is facing is how to reach to a sustained growth in the long run. The aim of this research is to survey about the effects of business cycle volatility on economic growth in Iran from 1340 to 1387. Some of the variables used in this research were growth of gross national product, volatility of business cycles, inflation, inflation uncertainty and the index of financial depth. In this survey, at first the volatility of business cycles and inflation uncertainty were computed by generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscdasticity model. Then we estimated the effects of volatility cycles in the long run for economic growth by using co-integration test and vector erorr correction Model. The results of this estimation show that the business cycle volatility causes a decrease in the long run economic growth. The reason is that the volatiity of economic production causes uncertainty in production and then as a result of that a decreas in investment and long run economic growth.
Hamid Reza Horry; Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaie; Fatemeh Irani Kermani
Volume 8, Issue 31 , January 2009, , Pages 59-89
Abstract
In this paper, first, financial markets have been analyzed and then financial institutions in economy, in addition to industrial and mineral investments in developed and developing countries, specially Iran, have been compared. Using estimation method 3SLS, the selected model has been estimated. The ...
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In this paper, first, financial markets have been analyzed and then financial institutions in economy, in addition to industrial and mineral investments in developed and developing countries, specially Iran, have been compared. Using estimation method 3SLS, the selected model has been estimated. The model consists of a trilogy, the variable functions of which are private investment in the industry and mine sector, public investment in industry and mine sector and the amount of liquidity. Balance of bank credits to the none governmental sector, risk index, bank's credit rates, real exchange rate, inflation rate, domestic national product and governments indebtedness to commercial and specialized banks being the independent variables.
According to the results of the research, the bank's interest rate creates no sensitivity in the investment of the private sector in industry and
mine in Iran; but the balance of the banking credit to the none governmental sector in industry and mining sector has had a positive effect on the private investment in industry and mine.
Ali Nasiri Aghdam; Ashraf Razmi
Volume 15, Issue 58 , October 2015, , Pages 61-82
Abstract
In this paper, to evaluate income and distributional effects of Personal Income Tax, a hypothetical society is simulated. 12 income sources are defined that each member of society can earn income from one income source or more. Then, using FORTRAN programming, the government's tax income, income distribution ...
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In this paper, to evaluate income and distributional effects of Personal Income Tax, a hypothetical society is simulated. 12 income sources are defined that each member of society can earn income from one income source or more. Then, using FORTRAN programming, the government's tax income, income distribution and average tax rate are calculated, assuming five alternative Scenarios: 0. Base scenario: taxing personal income at source according to "Direct Income Taxes Act"; 1. taxing the sum of incomes each individual person earns from different businesses he or she owns and exempt his / her business income once; 2. taxing the sum of incomes each person earns from non-exempt sources and exempt his / her business income once; 3. taxing the sum of incomes each person earns from exempt and non-exempt sources and exempt his / her business income once; 4. qualifying third scenario by accepting a 1 billion Rials as exemption. Results of simulation indicate that the government's income and income equality is maximized in 3rd scenario.
Hossein Bastanzad; Pedram Davodi
Abstract
Real exchange rate deviations should be consistent with behavior of fundamental indicators including terms of trade, openness, government size, the ratio of domestic to trading partners’ productivity, and net foreign direct investment. The aim of this paper is to study the response of exchange ...
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Real exchange rate deviations should be consistent with behavior of fundamental indicators including terms of trade, openness, government size, the ratio of domestic to trading partners’ productivity, and net foreign direct investment. The aim of this paper is to study the response of exchange rate to structural variables and its consistency with economics theory.Our estimation of a vector auto regression (VAR) model which relied on seasonal data during 1990-2015 underscores that real exchange rate (RER) is significantly depreciated with regard to the long run trend, while simultaneously and in contrast with theoretical basis, non-oil trade deficit widened, government size increased, and terms of trade improved due to higher international oil price. The accelerating gap between actual and long run trend of RER augments the unsustainability of balance of payments and foreign exchange market vulnerability against probable shocks. Foreign exchange forward market is constructed in practice to monitor demand composition in general and the share of speculative transaction in particular to increase information capacity of policy-makers to achieve the goal of financial stability and external sustainability in one hand as well as evaluating the Central Bank intervention capability on the other hand.
Masoud Nonejad; Maryam Haghjoo
Volume 14, Issue 53 , July 2014, , Pages 63-82
Abstract
As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within region are displaying an ever–greater complexity. Although inter–industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra–industry trade (IIT), which can be further ...
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As economic integration in East Asia progresses, trade patterns within region are displaying an ever–greater complexity. Although inter–industry trade still accounts for the majority, its share in overall trade is declining. Instead, intra–industry trade (IIT), which can be further divided into horizontal IIT (HIIT) and vertical IIT (VIIT) is growing in importance. In this paper, we set out and examine different kinds of intra-industry trade between Iran and G-8 member states by comparing the Greenway, Hine and Milner (1994) and Fontagne and Freudenberg (1997) approaches to disentangling vertical and horizontal intra–industry trade. Then we introduce and examine a new index from Azhar and Elliott to define product quality types between Iran and G-8 members for the time of 2001-2009. Result shows that a significant share of Iran’s industry trade with G-8 state members has been assigned to vertical intra industry trade. With regarded to Azhar and Elliott index, the main share of intra-industry trade consists of low quality goods.
Abbas Shakeri; Teymour Mohammadi; Hamid Nazeman; Javad Taherpoor
Volume 13, Issue 50 , October 2013, , Pages 63-86
Abstract
The issue of the impact of oil revenues on the economic performance of the countries that own these incomes is a significant part of the economic literature. One of the main reasons for the poor performance of resource-rich countries is the incidence of “Dutch Disease” in these countries. ...
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The issue of the impact of oil revenues on the economic performance of the countries that own these incomes is a significant part of the economic literature. One of the main reasons for the poor performance of resource-rich countries is the incidence of “Dutch Disease” in these countries. Considering this issue, after we review the literature on Dutch Disease, we first focus on the occurrence of Dutch Disease in Iranian economy and in the next stage, we study the effects of this problem on economic growth. To see if the problem of Dutch Disease has happened in Iranian economy or not, we have studied the production share of different tradable sectors (industry and agriculture) and non-tradable sectors (services and housing) and to study the effects of Dutch Disease on economic growth, we have used the growth models related to this research area and we have estimated these models by applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method with Withe correction. The results of our study show that the Dutch Disease has happened in Iranian economy along with the increase in oil incomes, especially in 1970s and 2000s, and also the occurrence of Dutch Disease has had a negative effect on economic growth in Iranian economy.
Maliheh Khajavi; Ebrahim Rezaei; Hassan Khodavasi
Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 65-90
Abstract
Underground economy has various names in economics literature like, black
economy, unregulated economy, and unreported economy and so on. Since there is no exact
definition for the Underground economy, in this study we try to measure it indirectly by
using the observable variables and build a model ...
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Underground economy has various names in economics literature like, black
economy, unregulated economy, and unreported economy and so on. Since there is no exact
definition for the Underground economy, in this study we try to measure it indirectly by
using the observable variables and build a model to explain it. Then we try to estimate the
model by Maximum likelihood and Instrumental Variable methods.
The aim of this paper is to estimate the size of the Underground economy in Iran by
using the unobservable variable model (Multiple indicator and multiple causes). Our
estimates show that the share of the Underground economy in Iran was about 17.21 percent
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 1350-1386. Our result also indicates that the
tax Gap was about 22 percent of the total tax revenue for the above-mentioned period. For a
number of reasons, which will be discussed later in the main text, the size of the
Underground economy and tax gap is increasing for the foreseeable future in the economy
of Iran.
Teimour Mohammadi; Esmaeel Safarzadeh; Mir Hossein Mousavi
Volume 9, Issue 34 , October 2009, , Pages 65-89
Abstract
When a business cycle enters to new phase is more important. Because the policies usually affect economy with some internal and external delays. It is possible that a policy designed on recession period affect economy in expansionary phase. For this reason it is very important to identify business cycle ...
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When a business cycle enters to new phase is more important. Because the policies usually affect economy with some internal and external delays. It is possible that a policy designed on recession period affect economy in expansionary phase. For this reason it is very important to identify business cycle turning points in real time. These points occur on future and are expected factors, then must to be forecasted.
In this paper we estimated business cycle turning points in Iran economy using advanced statistic methods: such as mixed provident indicators and Markow chains.
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Volume 5, Issue 17 , July 2005, , Pages 65-111
Hassan Heidari; Zahra Salehiyan Salehi Nejad; Soleiman Feizi
Volume 14, Issue 54 , October 2014, , Pages 67-99
Abstract
Given the importance of identifying the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in adoption of appropriate economic adjustment policies and the requirement of accurate estimation of elasticity of trade balance to income and price changes for proper timing of such policies, in this study ...
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Given the importance of identifying the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in adoption of appropriate economic adjustment policies and the requirement of accurate estimation of elasticity of trade balance to income and price changes for proper timing of such policies, in this study the effect of domestic and foreign income and real exchange rates on the Iranian trade balance has been investigated. Moreover, the reactions of trade balance to changes in the variables of interest have been estimated using time varying parameter models over the period of 1338-1389.The results show that the coefficients of the estimated model are not constant over the time and they are influenced by structural changes such as: oil price shocks, economic policies and exogenous shocks such as the imposed war and the Islamic revolution. By comparing the price elasticity of the balance of trade and the real exchange rate, it can be seen that by increasing real exchange rates during the period of 47-50 and 56-67, the price elasticity is positive and becomes negative when real exchange rates reduce.
Seyyed Safdar Hossini; Habib Shahbazi; Jahangard Halimeh
Volume 10, Issue 38 , October 2010, , Pages 67-86
Mahnaz Rabiee; Bijan Bid Abad
Volume 9, Issue 32 , April 2009, , Pages 67-96
Abstract
In this paper, the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is re-examined through a theoretical expansion and reformulating of the quantitative theory of money. Fisher's theory is expanded to include both internal and external monetary sectors to be considered simultaneously. A framework ...
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In this paper, the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate is re-examined through a theoretical expansion and reformulating of the quantitative theory of money. Fisher's theory is expanded to include both internal and external monetary sectors to be considered simultaneously. A framework for studying the relationship between interest and exchange rate is offered by relating export, import and capital account, net domestic and foreign assets of banking system in a generalized framework of quantitative theory of money and using the theories of interest rate parity and monetary approach to balance of payments. This paper concludes that there is a negative relationship between interest rate and exchange rate, ceteris paribus.
A significant contribution in this paper is the adaptation of transaction value to aggregate supply concepts using United Nations System of National Accounts (1993). This clarification actually removes the vogues of critical issues of the transaction value in macroeconomic analysis.
The proposed theoretical framework is tested for Iran's data. It is concluded that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate and interest rate again.
Naser Khiabani; mahbubeh delfan
Abstract
This study investigates how fiscal policy shocks affect macroeconomic activities in an oil exporting economy using a real business cycle model (RBC). We make distinction between public sector of economy from private sector and evaluate the effect of public crowded- (in or out) effect on private sector. ...
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This study investigates how fiscal policy shocks affect macroeconomic activities in an oil exporting economy using a real business cycle model (RBC). We make distinction between public sector of economy from private sector and evaluate the effect of public crowded- (in or out) effect on private sector. Our findings indicate that in Iran, a positive fiscal expansion- a positive consumption expenditure shock- does not have a positive, sizeable and permanent effect on the investment, employment and production of private sector. On the other hand, the results show that the shock has a negative effect on private sector consumption expenditure. This result is consistent with the Ricardian equivalence theorem, suggesting that a government cannot stimulate spending since people assume that whatever is gained now will be offset by higher taxes in the future.
Marzieh Bahmani; Hosein Raghfar; mir hossein mousavi
Abstract
Macroeconomic fluctuations and demographic changes have led to problems in Iranian retirement funds and lack of sustainability in their resources and expenditures. Because of ageing population and the effect of inflation on depreciation of pension funds’ reserves, it is imperative to carry out ...
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Macroeconomic fluctuations and demographic changes have led to problems in Iranian retirement funds and lack of sustainability in their resources and expenditures. Because of ageing population and the effect of inflation on depreciation of pension funds’ reserves, it is imperative to carry out parametric reforms such as a reduction in the replacement rate. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of reducing replacement rate on macroeconomic variables. The model used in this research is based on overlapping generations general equilibrium approach with an emphasis on imperfect labor market. Our findings show that ageing population leads to a reduction in interest rate (%4), a shortage of young workers and a rise in wages (%20) in labor market. In Addition, ageing of population will increase the cost of the pension system (%7). A parametric reform of reducing replacement rate (0.2) leads to reduction of pension system costs (%2). It also leads to a reduction in interest rates (%4.8). In long-run, reducing replacement rate leads to increase in capital accumulation and saving.
. .
Volume 2, Issue 4 , April 2002, , Pages 69-98
YAHYA FATHI; Mohammadgholi Yousefi
Abstract
Empirical studies show that establishment of World Trade Organization (WTO) had a significant role in increasing growth of international trade. After removal of international sanctions, membership in WTO is one of the most important economic challenges for Iran. The aim of this paper is to investigate ...
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Empirical studies show that establishment of World Trade Organization (WTO) had a significant role in increasing growth of international trade. After removal of international sanctions, membership in WTO is one of the most important economic challenges for Iran. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential effects of trade negotiations and WTO membership on growth of manufacturing industries, by exploring and simulating based on experiences of acceded countries. To meet this end, we estimated an endogenous economic growth model, using longitudinal data from 179 countries, including 36 newly acceded countries, during the period 1980 to 2015, with dynamic panel data and instrumental variables (Panel GMM) approach. We have used the proportion of value added in manufacturing sector to GDP as a proxy for industrial growth. Also, we have included two dummy variables for negotiation process and membership period to separate the effects related to each of them. Our results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between growth of manufacturing sector and WTO accessing negotiation process, as well as WTO membership. It means that, the effects of accession to the WTO on growth of manufacturing sector is not limited to the period after the full membership, but also - because of required reforms in the economic institutions and policies - the process of accession negotiations can affect economic growth as well.
Hossein samsami; Parviz davoodi; Jalal jahani goravan
Volume 14, Issue 55 , January 2015, , Pages 71-103
Abstract
The performance of the fractional-reserve banking system, will lead to a vast money creation in favor of banks. This results in inflationary problems. This type of banking system will also lead to some issues like the transfer of borrowers’ risks to banks and sometimes to depositors, monetary and ...
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The performance of the fractional-reserve banking system, will lead to a vast money creation in favor of banks. This results in inflationary problems. This type of banking system will also lead to some issues like the transfer of borrowers’ risks to banks and sometimes to depositors, monetary and banking crises, free ridings, adverse selection and moral hazard, and etc. In this research, the cost of money creation is determined by two scenarios. The first scenario is money creation in a fractional-reserve banking system, and the other is central bank’s money creation with requirement reserve of 100 %. Then the social loss function related to money creation is defined. The results of minimizing social loss function with the constraints of Philips curve and aggregate demand function show that the instability and social loss will increase with reduction of the reserve requirement. In other words, policy makers can reduce social costs and instability of economy through the expansion in the reserve requirement.
Heshmatollah Asgari
Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 71-93
Abstract
Reducing dependency on oil export and increasing non-oil export was one of the most important aims of the 3rd-5 year development plan. The aim was to increase the share of non-oil export from 18% in (3rd D.P) to 33.6% in the 4th-5 year dev. Plan. Hence the in order to recognize trade target markets through ...
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Reducing dependency on oil export and increasing non-oil export was one of the most important aims of the 3rd-5 year development plan. The aim was to increase the share of non-oil export from 18% in (3rd D.P) to 33.6% in the 4th-5 year dev. Plan. Hence the in order to recognize trade target markets through the trade potentiality analysis between Iran and selected countries such as: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Russia, Turkmenistan, Jeorgia and Kazakhistan, we use the comparative export and import vector methods in 2008. The result shows that Iran’s export to the selected countries except Turkey was more than export potentiality of these countries. So, there is no more opportunity for RTAs with these countries for export. But Iran imports from these selected countries were less than import potentiality. Thus we conclude that (RTAs) can be used only for the import potentialities rather than non-oil export.
Ebrahim Gorji; Ali Reza Eghbali
Volume 9, Issue 33 , July 2009, , Pages 71-96
Abstract
In this paper, authors, reviewing business cycles nature and numerous outlooks concerning “raison de etre” there of, provide a model together with its estimated using VAR for the years 1959-2006. The results show that monetary and fiscal factors may affect economic fluctuations. It seems ...
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In this paper, authors, reviewing business cycles nature and numerous outlooks concerning “raison de etre” there of, provide a model together with its estimated using VAR for the years 1959-2006. The results show that monetary and fiscal factors may affect economic fluctuations. It seems that fiscal policies have been more effective in creating business cycles. Meanwhile, there are other factors, which somehow are related to economic structure of Iran, play a significant role in economic crises within Iran’s economy.
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Volume 4, Issue 14 , October 2004, , Pages 71-96
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Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 71-102
Alireza Amini; Farzaneh Yazdipoor
Volume 8, Issue 30 , October 2008, , Pages 71-104
Abstract
In this paper, we surveyed the most important quantitative factors that influence energy productivity in Iran’s large manufacturing industries over the 1999-2003. A few models were run by using pooling data technique, covering manufacturing units at two digit level of ISIC classification. The results ...
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In this paper, we surveyed the most important quantitative factors that influence energy productivity in Iran’s large manufacturing industries over the 1999-2003. A few models were run by using pooling data technique, covering manufacturing units at two digit level of ISIC classification. The results obtained indicate that factors such as capital/ energy ratio (K/E), real cost capital, labor/ energy ratio (L/E), real wages and electricity used/ total energy ratio are most influential factors affecting energy productivity, respectively.
Productive engineering labor as percentage of total productive labor which was taken as a proxy for technology has had positive and meaningful effect on energy productivity. In addition, in view of present trend relative energy prices didn’t have meaningful effect on energy productivity.
Rahim Dallai Esfahani; Reza Esmaielzadeh
Volume 6, Issue 22 , October 2006, , Pages 71-96
Abstract
Population size and its change have enormous effects on economic growth and development. In this respect vast amounts of researches in economics are devoted to population studies. Malthus theory of population is regarded as a core in population issues, which had created a pessimistic view on population ...
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Population size and its change have enormous effects on economic growth and development. In this respect vast amounts of researches in economics are devoted to population studies. Malthus theory of population is regarded as a core in population issues, which had created a pessimistic view on population and its impact on economy, while Malthus theory were challenged by many and specially by Verlhurst, which the latter theory actually outmoded Malthus’ and gained replacement, it is wondering how in the annals of science the Verlhurst theory is forbidden and how there is a consistent acknowledgment of failed pessimistic view of Malthus on population. In this respect, this paper tries to reconsider Malthus and Neo-Malthusian views on population. And also, neglected Verlhust view from a limited institutional approach. For this purpose, the study of impact of the institutions (like authority and observance of law, economic freedom,..) and their improvements on populations receives due attention. In this research we also, in spite of recent Neo-Malthusian views, we pay attention to the positive impacts of population on economic growth. The view which in recent years gained wide acceptance and their followers are expanding rapidly in various academies, Research used method. In this study is descriptive and authors purposes a reconsideration long growth positive effects of population rather than short run negative effects in economic planning.
