Morteza Khorsandi; Nastaran Alibabaie
Abstract
Since the unemployment and inflation are two target variables of economic policies and in many cases policy-makers have to sacrifice one for another, the question arises that what is the preferences of society between these two targets. The appropriate answer can be obtained when the effect of each variable ...
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Since the unemployment and inflation are two target variables of economic policies and in many cases policy-makers have to sacrifice one for another, the question arises that what is the preferences of society between these two targets. The appropriate answer can be obtained when the effect of each variable on welfare is estimated and compared with each other. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of unemployment and inflation on happiness as an index of welfare is estimated. This estimation is done with two panel data samples. The first sample consist of 146 countries that happiness index is calculated for them and the second sample only includes Iran and its neighbors. The results show that in both cases unemployment has more effect on reducing happiness. In the sample of Iran and its neighboring countries, the absolute value of unemployment coefficient is 2.4 times higher than that of inflation. Accordingly, it can be concluded that in construction of social loss functions and also misery indices the weight of unemployment must be greater than inflation and the proposed relative weight for Iran is 2.4.
Ahmad Mohammadi; zeinab savari; Khaled Ahmadzadeh
Abstract
This paper deals with the question of whether gold coin futures contract in Iran performs expected function of price discovery or not. We investigate this question by using three distinct approaches: linear and nonlinear causality tests between gold coin futures and spot market, volatility spillovers ...
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This paper deals with the question of whether gold coin futures contract in Iran performs expected function of price discovery or not. We investigate this question by using three distinct approaches: linear and nonlinear causality tests between gold coin futures and spot market, volatility spillovers between those markets and share of each market in the process of price discovery. The data cover two periods: 1 August 2011 - 24 November 2013 and 25 November 2013 - 16 July 2015, with the former period corresponding to the unprecedented volatility of gold coin market in Iran and the latter period corresponding to stability of this market. In general, the results show that causality runs from spot prices to futures prices, volatility transmits from spot market to futures market and price discovery takes place mainly in spot market. Overall, the results of this paper reveal that futures market does not perform the expected function of price discovery. The results are consistent with the basic characteristics of futures market in Iran: it is in the early stages of its development and its size, in comparison to the spot market, is small.
Hossein Bastanzad; Pedram Davodi
Abstract
Real exchange rate deviations should be consistent with behavior of fundamental indicators including terms of trade, openness, government size, the ratio of domestic to trading partners’ productivity, and net foreign direct investment. The aim of this paper is to study the response of exchange ...
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Real exchange rate deviations should be consistent with behavior of fundamental indicators including terms of trade, openness, government size, the ratio of domestic to trading partners’ productivity, and net foreign direct investment. The aim of this paper is to study the response of exchange rate to structural variables and its consistency with economics theory.Our estimation of a vector auto regression (VAR) model which relied on seasonal data during 1990-2015 underscores that real exchange rate (RER) is significantly depreciated with regard to the long run trend, while simultaneously and in contrast with theoretical basis, non-oil trade deficit widened, government size increased, and terms of trade improved due to higher international oil price. The accelerating gap between actual and long run trend of RER augments the unsustainability of balance of payments and foreign exchange market vulnerability against probable shocks. Foreign exchange forward market is constructed in practice to monitor demand composition in general and the share of speculative transaction in particular to increase information capacity of policy-makers to achieve the goal of financial stability and external sustainability in one hand as well as evaluating the Central Bank intervention capability on the other hand.
seyyed hasan ghavami; . .; teymour mohammadi; Mansour Ranjbar
Abstract
By considering the different importance of collateral variable in Islamic and in conventional banking, theoretical and experimental studies show that the necessary convergence in the credit relationship between bank and customer has not been achieved. In this article, in addition to the explaining feasibility ...
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By considering the different importance of collateral variable in Islamic and in conventional banking, theoretical and experimental studies show that the necessary convergence in the credit relationship between bank and customer has not been achieved. In this article, in addition to the explaining feasibility of studying and accepting empirical role of collateral in commercial profit - loss sharing contracts, we have studied the dual role of collateral as screening and motivation tool in banking relations. We have also used credit data of Bank Refah Kargaran with application of Logit estimation to test our hypotheses regarding the role of collateral. Based on our results, the hypothesis that borrowers with lower risk have provided safer collateral, has been confirmed. This result shows the existence of adverse selection phenomenon. So, low-risk individuals tend to send signals of their quality and reveal their situation to banks. In addition, other economic and social variables of contract could use the potential of signaling and contribute to reduce the role of collateral. In the data under consideration, except for the variable of account history-interest rate, this hypothesis was rejected and other economic and social variables have failed to have the expected impact.
Zahra Ziya’i; parisa mohajeri; Ali Nasiri Aghdam
Abstract
In real world, taxpayers have private information of which tax agencies are either completely or partly not aware of. This issue gives rise to the so-called asymmetric information problem, seriously preventing tax laws from being justly and efficiently enforced. Asymmetry of information motivates taxpayer ...
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In real world, taxpayers have private information of which tax agencies are either completely or partly not aware of. This issue gives rise to the so-called asymmetric information problem, seriously preventing tax laws from being justly and efficiently enforced. Asymmetry of information motivates taxpayer towards falsifying or concealing information, trying to enjoy benefits of failure to pay taxes (moral hazard); furthermore, by granting licenses to bad economic operators for operating as authorized economic operators, law-abiding companies may leave licensed and authorized market (adverse selection). It is obvious that, information sharing and availability of databases containing taxpayers’ information can help governments in recognizing and collecting taxes in a justly and fair manner. In this paper, using statistics from 92 countries during 2006 – 2012 (in the form of panel data), we have studied the effects of information sharing variables on tax-to-GDP ratio. The findings indicate that, information sharing has a positive, yet statistically insignificant, effect on the ratio, which is in agreement with theoretical foundations.
Nahid Baharlou; Ali Akbar Aminbeydokhti; Mohammad Javad Mohagheghnia
Abstract
One of the main tasks of the financial institutions is to give loan to the customers. Prediction and evaluation of the credit risks due to loan and consequently managing this risk is one of the greatest ongoing challenges for the financial institutions. The main aim of this work is to provide an optimized ...
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One of the main tasks of the financial institutions is to give loan to the customers. Prediction and evaluation of the credit risks due to loan and consequently managing this risk is one of the greatest ongoing challenges for the financial institutions. The main aim of this work is to provide an optimized logistic regression model for credit scoring of real customers. Here the effects of increasing the customer’s credit classification from two (binary) to four (multinomial) distinct groups on the results of the logistic regression has been investigated. Identification of the most important parameters in prediction of the real customers’ credit scoring is the other important outcome of this work. The results of both binary and multinomial logistic regression show the relative importance of the education level and the age of the customer compared with other independent variables. The results of this work show that either increasing the number of classification types of the dependent variable, real customer’s credit, to four distinct groups has no sharp effect on the results of the optimized models or this conclusion can be due to improper distribution of the number of customers in different groups.
Mansour Zarra Nezhad; Elaheh Ansari; Masood Khoda Panah
Abstract
Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can ...
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Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can be of remarkable help to discover fundamental problems, set goals, and choose the best way to achieve them. Islamic economy could be one of these areas. In this study, through following scientific principles, the composite index of Islamic economy in Iran from 1995 to 2012 was defined and estimated. In fact, it is for the first time that a long-term performance of a country is examined. The results show that the absolute value of the index has not changed significantly in the course of 18 years under study, and there have been fluctuations in a short run. Reducing unemployment and inflation rates, promoting the culture of the using non-interest-bearing deposits (Gharz-ol-Hasane), as well as reducing bank interest rate comprise strategies for improving this indicator in Iran.
