Khaled Ahmadzadeh; Kazem Yavari; Abbas Assari Arani; Bahram Sahabi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 1-20
Abstract
In recent decades and especially in developing countries, the trade of services has faced an increasing trend. The export of services can improve trade balance, economic growth, employment as well as development of merchandise sector. This paper uses a descriptive and analytical approach and intends ...
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In recent decades and especially in developing countries, the trade of services has faced an increasing trend. The export of services can improve trade balance, economic growth, employment as well as development of merchandise sector. This paper uses a descriptive and analytical approach and intends to evaluate performance and factors affecting the total export of services and particularly the export of technical and engineering services in OIC selected countries by applying panel data method.
The results of estimating the performance indicators and comparative advantage of technical and engineering services export indicate that between years 1994 to 2010, Iran's position among these countries has improved. In our analysis, factors such as GDP per capita, real effective exchange rates, inflow of foreign investments, communication infrastructures and also being member of two trade blocs -ECO and D8- have significant and positive effect on the total export of services and also the export of engineering services. Thus, it is necessity for governmental institutions and private sector in Iran to plan and prepare to further develop the export of services.
Zahra Afshari; Moorashin Javan; Shamsollah Shirinbakhsh
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 21-50
Abstract
Although there are numerous studies in the literature that look at the theoretical effects of automatic stabilizers and their efficiency, few of them present empirical evidence. This paper conducts an empirical study on the effects of fiscal policy as an automatic stabilizer. In the first part of this ...
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Although there are numerous studies in the literature that look at the theoretical effects of automatic stabilizers and their efficiency, few of them present empirical evidence. This paper conducts an empirical study on the effects of fiscal policy as an automatic stabilizer. In the first part of this paper we attempt to study the cyclicality of fiscal policy and for this purpose, the method of panel data is applied to 8 OPEC member countries for the period of 1976-2009. The results show that the fiscal policy for the selected countries is counter-cyclical. The main purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between fiscal policy (measured by government expenditures, tax revenues and transfers) and fluctuations of economy during business cycles (measured by GDP, private GDP and consumption) among 8 OPEC member countries by applying panel data approach for the period 1976-2005. The results show that there is a strong and negative correlation between tax revenues (relative to GDP) and fluctuations of output. This paper also show that government expenditures (relative to GDP) are positively correlated with the fluctuations of output. The results indicate that tax revenues, as an efficient fiscal policy tool, help to smooth the fluctuations of output. On the other hand, the results show that government expenditures increase the fluctuations of output. Furthermore, we check for the robustness of our results by introducing a list of control variables (openness, GDP, GDP per capita and GDP growth) and introducing these variables into our model does not affect our main results. So, this observation supports the idea that in countries that are exposed to business cycles with more fluctuations, it is desirable to increase tax revenues (relative to GDP) by expanding tax base to help smooth these fluctuations.
Hossein Tavakolian; Asghar Shahmoradi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 51-70
Abstract
In the mainstream economic view, in low levels of inflation there is a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth, and this relationship changes to a negative one at high levels of inflation. This study examines the probability of occurring these two regimes, using Markov Switching Approach ...
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In the mainstream economic view, in low levels of inflation there is a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth, and this relationship changes to a negative one at high levels of inflation. This study examines the probability of occurring these two regimes, using Markov Switching Approach (MSA). The results show that there has been a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth only in 3 periods (1989-93 and two other short periods, 2002-03 and 2006), while in most of the time, inflation in Iran negatively affected the economic growth. The average duration of high inflation periods has been about 4 years, while the average duration of low inflation periods has been about 2 years.
Mahmoud Danyali Deh Howz; Hossein Mansouri
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 71-96
Abstract
This study tries to examine the efficiency of Tehran Stock Exchange and identify factors that can improve this efficiency. The methodology of this research, based on its nature and objectives, is descriptive-analytic. Based on the research objectives, the best way to collect the required data was questionnaire. ...
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This study tries to examine the efficiency of Tehran Stock Exchange and identify factors that can improve this efficiency. The methodology of this research, based on its nature and objectives, is descriptive-analytic. Based on the research objectives, the best way to collect the required data was questionnaire. Also, using independence tests (so run test) we examined weak form of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange. Our results do not confirm the weak form of efficiency of capital market in Tehran stock exchange. In order to identify the factors that can improve the efficiency of Tehran Stock Exchange, in addition to analyzing expert opinions, the method of factor analysis has been used. And to determine the degree of importance of different factors, we used Entropy technique. The results show that market information system is the most important one. In addition, some practical recommendations are suggested in this paper.
Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani; Akbare Komijani; Mohammad Hadi Zahedi Vafa; Mohammad Ghaffary Fard
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 97-122
Abstract
In economic studies, fiscal decentralization theories are used to increase productivity and efficiency of government and to improve the balance between different regions and it is mentioned as one of the fundamental tools in the way of transition to a market economy in developing countries. After Islamic ...
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In economic studies, fiscal decentralization theories are used to increase productivity and efficiency of government and to improve the balance between different regions and it is mentioned as one of the fundamental tools in the way of transition to a market economy in developing countries. After Islamic Revolution in Iran and especially after Iran-Iraq war, fiscal and economic decentralization was officially considered as a strategic policy for the development of Iran’s provinces. Firstly, the Provincial Planning Councils were founded and then the provincial revenue-expenditure system was devised to increase the degree of decentralization. But the main concern of economic planners was to investigate the mechanism of which the fiscal decentralization had an impact on economic growth and income distribution. In this paper, by using augmented Solow model, the direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on economic growth is evaluated. After testing for the stationary of our panel of data, it is confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between variables of the model by using Pedroni and Kao tests. After estimating the model by using generalized least squares (GLS) method, it was shown that during the period of 1379-1386, fiscal decentralization (based on two measures of decentralization of national investment expenditures and decentralization of provincial investment expenditures) had a positive effect on economic growth and income distribution in provinces. This effect was in a way that one percent increase in fiscal decentralization would increase economic growth rate up to 0/04 percent. In addition, fiscal decentralization improve income distribution in provinces and indirectly affects economic growth of different regions.
Ali Hussein Samadi; Naghmeh Zare Haghighi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 123-152
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in Iran. We use an asymmetric error correction model within a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) framework during 1991-2010. Contrary to previous ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between government revenues and expenditures in Iran. We use an asymmetric error correction model within a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) framework during 1991-2010. Contrary to previous studies on Iranian economy, the results show that synchronization hypothesis with asymmetric adjustment towards long run equilibrium is confirmed between government revenues and expenditures. The policy implication of the results is that the government should simultaneously rise revenues and decrease spending in order to control the budget deficits.
Saeid Eisa Zade; Jahan Bakhsh Mehranfar; Mahdi Ferdosi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 153-174
Abstract
In this paper, we try to explain cross-country differences in the level of entrepreneurship using self-employment and innovation as proxy variables. For this purpose, we use a comparative approach to explore empirically the ways in which institutions have influenced self-employment and innovation. In ...
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In this paper, we try to explain cross-country differences in the level of entrepreneurship using self-employment and innovation as proxy variables. For this purpose, we use a comparative approach to explore empirically the ways in which institutions have influenced self-employment and innovation. In this paper, we make the assumption that national patent grants represent innovation and that national self-employment rates represent job replacement. Then, we investigate the relationship between the institutional setting, in terms of economic freedom measures, and entrepreneurship which is measured by proxy variables of self-employment and innovation in a panel data setting covering selected countries for the time-period of 1990-2009. The empirical findings show that indices of corruption perception, business freedom and trade freedom are negatively correlated with self-employment rate. On the other hand, investment freedom and freedom from government intervention have positive effect on self-employment. Interestingly, we found that institutional factors that determine self-employment and innovation may act in opposite directions: what encourages self-employment might discourage innovation and vice-versa.
Samira Motaghi; Bahram Sahabi; Afshin Mottaghi; Bijan Safavi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 175-196
Abstract
Middle East is one of the important regions in the world and this importance is strategic because of matters such as the volume of oil reserves and its production in this region. But there is a visible lack of an intensive Regional Trade Agreement in the region that if existed, could give rise to economic ...
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Middle East is one of the important regions in the world and this importance is strategic because of matters such as the volume of oil reserves and its production in this region. But there is a visible lack of an intensive Regional Trade Agreement in the region that if existed, could give rise to economic convergence between the countries of the region. So it seems useful to examine the effects of creating a hypothetical economic agreement in Middle East. For this purpose, this paper is an attempt to analyze the consequences of membership in a regional trade agreement on trade flows between the countries of this region.
The model used is an extended version of the Gravity model and the data was compiled across a number countries in Middle East over 2002-2009. The findings demonstrate that the creation of a Trade Block in Middle East region would be ineffective.
Mohammad Reza Moghaddam; Mohammad Reza Sezavar
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 197-216
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of oil prices on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and unemployment rate by using structural vector autoregressive method. The results show that oil price shocks are the main source of fluctuations of inflation rate, while economic growth is affected ...
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This paper studies the effects of oil prices on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and unemployment rate by using structural vector autoregressive method. The results show that oil price shocks are the main source of fluctuations of inflation rate, while economic growth is affected by supply shock and unemployment rate is affected by shocks in labor market. Also, it is necessary to improve the credibility of monetary and fiscal policies for economic agents to achieve better results.
Masoud Nili; Amirreza Seyed Khosroshahi; Seyed Babak Ebrahimi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, Pages 217-244
Abstract
This paper seeks to address the question that whether and to what extent does Social Security retirement benefits cause early retirement. This question is studied under “Option Value” and “Peak Value” models, in which the individual's retirement decision is derived as a function ...
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This paper seeks to address the question that whether and to what extent does Social Security retirement benefits cause early retirement. This question is studied under “Option Value” and “Peak Value” models, in which the individual's retirement decision is derived as a function of future variations of present value of social security wealth. The results indicate that Social Security (in the form of retirement benefits) has a significant effect on retirement decisions and that the future path of these benefits is an important determinant of the probability of retirement among would-be retired men.
