Economics Research

Factors Effecting the Growth of Tourism Industry in Iran

Mehdi Taghavi; Ali Gholipoor Soleymani

Volume 9, Issue 34 , October 2009, , Pages 157-172

Abstract

  Which factors are considered as effective elements to growth of tourism in Iran? Additional number of the room in a hotel, the cost of a room in a hotel, or the exchange rate? The training of the human resources who are working for the tourist industry, the tourist agencies, inflation rate and war are ...  Read More Which factors are considered as effective elements to growth of tourism in Iran? Additional number of the room in a hotel, the cost of a room in a hotel, or the exchange rate? The training of the human resources who are working for the tourist industry, the tourist agencies, inflation rate and war are the explanatory variables that have an effective role in increasing the incomes of the foreign tourism as a dependent variable in Iran. Research Data is time series 1979-2007. ARDL technique are used to estimate the long-run model and to determine the cause- effect relationship among the variables. The results of this research shows that the coefficient of the variables which are related to the (number of the room in a hotel), (the foreign exchange receipt of the previous periods), (the cost of a room in a hotel), (the exchange rate), and (the tourist agencies) are meaningful and have the expected sign.

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Volume 1, Issue 2 , October 2001, , Pages 159-184

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Border Effects in Iranian Trade Flow of Commodity Groups: Application of Nonlinear Specification

Mahdi Yazdani; Hadi Ramezani; Mina Sadeghi

Volume 16, Issue 62 , October 2016, , Pages 159-188

https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2016.7026

Abstract

  Generally, transportation costs are one of the important factors on trade flows. This variable is affected by the distance between countries as well as type of traded goods by international transit network. By using a nonlinear gravity model and Poisson-Pseudo maximum likelihood method, this study tries ...  Read More Generally, transportation costs are one of the important factors on trade flows. This variable is affected by the distance between countries as well as type of traded goods by international transit network. By using a nonlinear gravity model and Poisson-Pseudo maximum likelihood method, this study tries to investigate the effects of these factors as border effects on Iranian trade flows with its 30 major partners during 1992-2014. The results show that except for third group of goods (animal or vegetable fats and oils), import, export and total trade of the other 20 groups of goods have been negatively affected by distance between Iran and its partners and border effects have had an important role in this regard. Twenty-first group (Works of art, collector’s pieces and antiques), first group (live animal and animal products) and seventh group (plastic and rubber) for import flow of goods, first group, tenth group (Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; recovered) and twelfth group (Footwear, headgear, sun umbrellas, walking – sticks, whips, riding - crops) for export flow of goods and finally twenty-first, first and seventh groups for trade flow of goods have respectively been influenced more by distance.

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Effects of Doing Business on Economic Growth (Case Study: Selected Countries)

Rouhollah Shahnazi; Zahra Dehghan Shabani

Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 161-185

Abstract

  Doing business improvement influence on economic growth with increase entrepreneurship, investment, property right and decrease production cost, price of domestic production, informal sector, fiscal corruption, smuggled goods. In this paper, factors affecting economic growth, especially doing business, ...  Read More Doing business improvement influence on economic growth with increase entrepreneurship, investment, property right and decrease production cost, price of domestic production, informal sector, fiscal corruption, smuggled goods. In this paper, factors affecting economic growth, especially doing business, have been analyzed using panel data models for 68 countries during 2003 ! 2006. Results show weakness on seven components of doing business; i.e, Closing a business, Registering property, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Employing workers and Starting a business have negative effect  on economic growth. Three other components  of doing business; i.e, Dealing with licenses, Getting credit and Protecting investors have not expected effects on economic growth.

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Testing the Impacts of Tax Incentives (Evidence in Enhancing Tax Competition, Investment Attraction and Increasing Economic Growth)

Mohammad Ghasem Rezaee; Mahboubeh Sabzrou; Mohammad Rezaee-Pour

Volume 13, Issue 51 , January 2014, , Pages 163-187

Abstract

  In this paper, we focus on two major questions about tax incentives: 1) Do the countries compete over tax incentives in a same way as they compete over tax rates? ; 2) Do the offered tax incentives results in attracting investment and increasing economic growth? The results of testing the first question, ...  Read More In this paper, we focus on two major questions about tax incentives: 1) Do the countries compete over tax incentives in a same way as they compete over tax rates? ; 2) Do the offered tax incentives results in attracting investment and increasing economic growth? The results of testing the first question, in which spatial econometric technique for panel data and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) Method were used, indicate that the developing countries compete over tax rates and tax holidays (and don’t compete over investment rebates); In other words, governments consider other states’ tax policies as a benchmark for judging their own tax policies. The results of testing the second question, in which econometric techniques of dynamic data and Generalized Moments Method (GMM) were used, indicate that tax rates and tax holidays influence foreign direct investment while investment rebates don’t have such an effect and only tax rates have significant relationship with private sector investment and economic growth. Tax incentives which were tested here include tax rates reduction, tax holiday and investment rebates and empirical evidence is based on time period 1985- 2008 and the data for 45 developing countries.

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Volume 2, Issue 4 , April 2002, , Pages 165-200

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Dynamics of Iranian Trade with Ten Trade Partners to Exchange Rate Changes According to Financial Crisis Index

Leila Torki; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Mehdi Yazdani; Elham Fathi

Volume 14, Issue 53 , July 2014, , Pages 167-196

Abstract

  An appropriate solution to resolve trade deficit is national currency devaluation. This policy is, at least in the long term, useful. It is based on the logic that any devaluation of national currency in the form of market mechanism reduces the trade deficit. On the other hand the trade balance of countries ...  Read More An appropriate solution to resolve trade deficit is national currency devaluation. This policy is, at least in the long term, useful. It is based on the logic that any devaluation of national currency in the form of market mechanism reduces the trade deficit. On the other hand the trade balance of countries are affected by several factors including the international financial conditions that change the volume of international transactions and in this way affect the economy as a whole and trade balance in particular. The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting trade balance between Iran and her ten trading partners with considerations of the financial crisis index as a symbol of the international financial conditions. For this purpose, a time series is specified and then estimated by ARDL and error correction model (ECM) for the period of 1981-2009. Also the effects of the financial crisis on trade balance using Impulse Response Functions are considered. The results show that J curve is only confirmed for the bilateral trade of Iran with China and Italy and for the other countries, with consideration of the financial crisis, this hypothesis is rejected. It should be noted that all coefficients are stable with respect to the CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests.

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The Impact of Income Redistribution on the Macroeconomic Variables by Using Semi Input Output Model

Ali Asghar Esfandiary; Hamideh Neisi

Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 167-192

Abstract

  Distribution of income is of vital significance because, It represents not only a significant aspect of justice; but, it also influences economic, social and other variables. Therefore, it is important for the economic and politic decision makers to identify and assess the effects of income redistribution ...  Read More Distribution of income is of vital significance because, It represents not only a significant aspect of justice; but, it also influences economic, social and other variables. Therefore, it is important for the economic and politic decision makers to identify and assess the effects of income redistribution policies, as it the useful in planning. Hence, in this paper, using semi-input-output model, we try to examine the effects of income redistribution for low-income groups, on the Iranian macroeconomic variables. In other words, this paper aims to find out whether or not the income redistribution results in Iranian economic growth. Similarly semi-input-output table of the Iranian statistics centre in 2001 has been used in 10 parts, assuming mixed technology. In this paper, it is revealed that increasing economic growth policies and income distribution improvement policies are not contradictory.

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Simulation of Stock Market by Concerning Structural Characteristics of Tehran Stock Exchange

Saeed Moshiri; Amir Behdad Salami

Volume 9, Issue 32 , April 2009, , Pages 167-203

Abstract

  Simulation has been increasingly applied in social sciences and economics in the two last decades. Agent Based Simulation (ABS) provides the opportunity of creation of an artificial environment for many agents to have interaction in a computer. In this paper, concerning ABS literature and the new characteristics, ...  Read More Simulation has been increasingly applied in social sciences and economics in the two last decades. Agent Based Simulation (ABS) provides the opportunity of creation of an artificial environment for many agents to have interaction in a computer. In this paper, concerning ABS literature and the new characteristics, Tehran Stock Exchange has been simulated. Primary tests show that this model is capable of reproducing the existing statistical identifications in time-series of prices and returns in International and Tehran stock markets.

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Volume 4, Issue 14 , October 2004, , Pages 167-188

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Estimation of the Composite Index of Islamic Economy and Examination of its Trend in Iran

Mansour Zarra Nezhad; Elaheh Ansari; Masood Khoda Panah

Volume 16, Issue 63 , January 2017, , Pages 167-194

https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2017.7588

Abstract

  Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can ...  Read More Information constitutes the main basis for decision making. Sometimes the amount of information obtained is so huge that the inappropriate use of unanalyzed information will lead to making wrong decisions. Defining practical indices and the quantification of quality indicators in different domains can be of remarkable help to discover fundamental problems, set goals, and choose the best way to achieve them. Islamic economy could be one of these areas. In this study, through following scientific principles, the composite index of Islamic economy in Iran from 1995 to 2012 was defined and estimated. In fact, it is for the first time that a long-term performance of a country is examined. The results show that the absolute value of the index has not changed significantly in the course of 18 years under study, and there have been fluctuations in a short run. Reducing unemployment and inflation rates, promoting the culture of the using non-interest-bearing deposits (Gharz-ol-Hasane), as well as reducing bank interest rate comprise strategies for improving this indicator in Iran.

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Volume 2, Issue 5 , July 2002, , Pages 169-184

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Volume 4, Issue 12 , April 2004, , Pages 169-186

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Evaluating Provincial Inequalities in Agricultural Productivity of Iran and Introducing a Real Reference for Inefficient Provinces Using Data Envelopment Analysis with Non-Convex Frontier Approach

Masoumeh Rajabi Tanha; Gholam Hossein Abdollahzadeh

Volume 10, Issue 36 , April 2010, , Pages 171-199

Abstract

  Identifying various aspects of the inequality among provinces is the first process in creating a regional balancing program through which regional development goals would be obtained by untilization of limited production resources. The imbalance in agricultural development process has caused an expanding ...  Read More Identifying various aspects of the inequality among provinces is the first process in creating a regional balancing program through which regional development goals would be obtained by untilization of limited production resources. The imbalance in agricultural development process has caused an expanding gap of productivity level among all provinces. This paper tries to develop and demonstrate a combined set of models (Mamlquist Index using Data Envelopment Analysis with non-convex frontier) to get regional development decision processes by introducing only one real province as the reference province. The main objective of the present paper is to measure and describe barley productivity and regional trend and inequality in Iran to optimize  and utilize resources in agricultural development plan. So based on research goals we formulated agricultural productivity indexes and data was collected from the statistics and information, affiliated to the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad during two perieds. Research method is nonparametric with Mamlquist Index based on Data Envelopment Analysis to analyze regional differences total factor productivity growth rate and its elements among province. The result revealed that, there is an enormous inequality among provinces. Although less developed province indicated better performance than developed provinces in this regard. Howeer, to decrease the inequality among the provinces as a whole we need to have a real change in agricultural policies in the distribution of agricultural facilities such as machinery equipment land and resources as well as agricultural infrastr nature (Water Energy; transportation etc…).

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The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth of Iran Through the Channel of Financial Markets

Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee; Mina Sabbagh Poorfard

Volume 9, Issue 33 , July 2009, , Pages 171-188

Abstract

  Nowadays, the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, theatrically & empirically, has been proved. Developed countries have experiences, using FDI for reaching stability on economic growth and of course in this channel should not ignore the role of financial markets in these countries. ...  Read More Nowadays, the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, theatrically & empirically, has been proved. Developed countries have experiences, using FDI for reaching stability on economic growth and of course in this channel should not ignore the role of financial markets in these countries. In this paper, first the effect of FDI on economic growth has been investigated and then for the purpose of determining the stability of this effect, controlling variables have been used. The result shows that when controlling variables used, FDI have no effect on economic growth. According to this, several variables have been introduced to determining the role of financial markets. Through combining these variables and entering them in the growth model it is obvious that the effect of FDI on economic growth is significant. Therefore, it is concluding that, in Iran with better –developed financial markets, the effect of FDI on economic growth will be improved.

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The Prediction of the Firms’ Bankruptcy By Using Logit Model

Mohssen Dastgir; Seyyed Hossein Sajadi; Javad Moghadam

Volume 8, Issue 31 , January 2009, , Pages 171-189

Abstract

  We developed three Logit models for estimating the rating of prediction of bankruptcy for listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The first phase of study examines the existence of any significance statistical differences between the financial statement data of successful and unsuccessful firms, ...  Read More We developed three Logit models for estimating the rating of prediction of bankruptcy for listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The first phase of study examines the existence of any significance statistical differences between the financial statement data of successful and unsuccessful firms, if there will be any significant association between financial ratios and probability of bankruptcy, we want to see which ratios have a greater association with probability of bankruptcy. There are some significant differences between the two groups, from the financial activity indexes, liabilities position (financial leverage) points of view. However, the differences for liquidity not passed the test of significance. In this study we developed the Logit model with a Wald methodology to predict the rating of the firms with a reasonable accuracy.

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Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2002, , Pages 171-184

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Investigating the Cost Efficiency in the Banking System: The Case of Bank Mellat

Hamid Abrishami; Mohssen Mehrara; Maryam Ajorloo

Volume 8, Issue 28 , April 2008, , Pages 173-197

Abstract

  Banks have important roles in economy, such as mobilization of funds, intermediation, and utilization of fund and financial management. Even in developed economies, banks are on the center of financial and economic movements and they are the basis of monetary policies. In this research, we have investigated ...  Read More Banks have important roles in economy, such as mobilization of funds, intermediation, and utilization of fund and financial management. Even in developed economies, banks are on the center of financial and economic movements and they are the basis of monetary policies. In this research, we have investigated the cost-efficiency of banking systems (the case study of the Bank Mellat in the period 1991-2003). We have also estimated the cost-efficiency by using the parametric technique (econometrics) and Translog Stochastic Frontier Cost Function. The advantage of this method is that it divides inefficiency into two independent residuals including cost-inefficiency and stochastic factors. After estimating of the cost function and finding the inefficiency factor, we realize that 10 percent of variance of model's errors is attributed to inefficiency factors. On the other hand, our research show that the total cost to minimum cost ration of the Bank Mellat is 1.07. It means that during this period, the Bank Mellat had only 7 percent inefficiency and the trend of inefficiency was stable during the whole period.

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Volume 3, Issue 8 , April 2003, , Pages 173-198

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Mahmood Motevaseli; Ali Taiebnia; Mahmoud Mashhadi Ahmad

Volume 10, Issue 39 , January 2011, , Pages 175-206

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Jamshid Pajuyan; Bita Tabrizian

Volume 10, Issue 38 , October 2010, , Pages 175-203

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Financial Repression and Economic Growth (Empirical Evidence of Iran’s Economy)

AZIZ MARASELI; Bagher Darvishi

Volume 8, Issue 30 , October 2008, , Pages 175-195

Abstract

  The aim of this study is the financial repression in Iran’s economy during the period of 1968-2006. In the first part of the paper, the concept of financial repression, theoretical and empirical literature of financial repression and economic growth have been considered. In the second part of the ...  Read More The aim of this study is the financial repression in Iran’s economy during the period of 1968-2006. In the first part of the paper, the concept of financial repression, theoretical and empirical literature of financial repression and economic growth have been considered. In the second part of the paper, while financial repression indicators introduced, by using three separate models, the effects of financial repression on Iran’s economy is reviewed. The results of regression models revealed that the financial repression has no significant effects on Iran’s economic growth, but it has negative effects on economic efficiency.  

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An Investigation of Factors and Policies Affecting Labor Force Employment in Iranian Economy

Mohamad Reza Sadi; Mir Housain Mousavi

Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 177-198

Abstract

  The aim of this paper is to study the factors and policies that affect employment in  Iranian economy. To accomplish this purpose, ARDL dynamic model is applied to annual data during 1974-2007. By this method, the labor force demand in Iranian economy is estimated. The results show that in the short-run, ...  Read More The aim of this paper is to study the factors and policies that affect employment in  Iranian economy. To accomplish this purpose, ARDL dynamic model is applied to annual data during 1974-2007. By this method, the labor force demand in Iranian economy is estimated. The results show that in the short-run, employment can increase by using the banking facilities and stimulating production. It is shown that in the long-run, the most important  factor that can result in job creation  is investment and the reason is that investment leads to economic growth and in this paper, it can be the leading factor of job creation. The size of the coefficients corresponding to employment in previous periods indicate low flexibility of labor market In Iranian economy and it is required to use proper policies and solutions to increase labor market flexibility in Iranian economy.

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The Non-Symmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Real Output and Price in Iran (1961-2002)

Alireza Kazerooni; Nasrin Rostami

Volume 7, Issue 25 , July 2007, , Pages 177-196

Abstract

  The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the Iran's macroeconomic variables, especially the real output and domestic price level during 1961-2002. For this purpose, the fluctuations of the exchange rate are decomposed into two parts, anticipated ...  Read More The main objective of this research is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the Iran's macroeconomic variables, especially the real output and domestic price level during 1961-2002. For this purpose, the fluctuations of the exchange rate are decomposed into two parts, anticipated and unanticipated components by using Hodrick Prescott filter. The empirical methodology is based on regression model and VAR method. The main findings of this research indicate that the exchange rate fluctuations have a non-symmetric impact on the real output and the domestic price level in Iran. It means that the impact of anticipated and unanticipated shocks on the real output are different from each other; the anticipated shocks of the exchange rate has more impact on the domestic output in comparison with the unanticipated ones. In addition, the negative shocks (unanticipated change in the exchange rate) have more effects on the real output than the positive shocks. In other words, the unanticipated currency appreciation (a negative shock) has influenced the real output more than the unanticipated currency depreciation. Similarly, the impact of the foreign exchange rate shocks on the domestic price level is non-symmetric. It means that the unanticipated exchange rate shocks have more effect on the price than the anticipated ones. Moreover, the absolute effect of the positive shocks (depreciation) on the price level is more pronounced than that of the negative ones. In other words, the absolute impact of the national currency depreciation on the price is higher than that of the appreciation.

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Assessment on the Impact of Microcredit Provided by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation on Population Sustainment in Rural Areas (Case study: Khomein County)

Yousef Ghanbari; Raziyeh Nouri

Volume 17, Issue 65 , July 2017, , Pages 177-198

https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2017.7850

Abstract

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of microcredit provided by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation (IKRF) on preventing rural outflow migrations. This study is an applied research, its methodology is descriptive-analitical and the instrument used was questionnaire. Without any need for ...  Read More   The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of microcredit provided by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation (IKRF) on preventing rural outflow migrations. This study is an applied research, its methodology is descriptive-analitical and the instrument used was questionnaire. Without any need for sampling, all 142 persons who received employment microcredits from IKRF in Khomein County in year 2014 were subjects of our study. Because of lack of access to all statistical population, questioning was conducted for 121 households and the resulting data were analyzed by using Wilcoxon test, t single sample, Pearson and structural equation modeling. The results of hypothesis tests using Pearson correlation coefficient show that microcredit provided by IKRF has a positive effect with beta 0/719  on the economic situation and household income and  with beta coefficient of 0/340  on population sustainment with an error level of error of less than to %5. In addition, Pearson correlation coefficient for the relationship between household income and population sustainment is 0/369 for an error level of less than %5  and this result confirms this hypothesis. So creating jobs through microcredit and giving priority to investment for creation of new employment opportunities can be one of effective ways to prevent irrational migration from rural areas.

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