Parviz Davoudi; Fatmeh Ghasemi Mand
Volume 6, Issue 20 , April 2006, , Pages 71-93
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Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2002, , Pages 73-100
Hassan Taiee
Volume 8, Issue 28 , April 2008, , Pages 73-97
Abstract
Creating knowledge jobs is a key issue in understanding labor market evolution in any knowledge economy. Obviously, function and action of agents in labor market is derived from fundamental change in the production system. In this paper, we explain some changes in today’s business era under knowledge ...
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Creating knowledge jobs is a key issue in understanding labor market evolution in any knowledge economy. Obviously, function and action of agents in labor market is derived from fundamental change in the production system. In this paper, we explain some changes in today’s business era under knowledge economy, and then explain the role of knowledge job change in nature of labor market as a cause of knowledge economy and simultaneously an outcome of it. The most important finding from reviews of economic achievement in some countries, is a change in national system of education as a basic need for a paradigm shift to knowledge society.
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash; Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Abdolreza Korani
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 75-100
Abstract
One of the features of market structure is the extent of barriers to entry. According to economic theories, it is expected that when the barriers to entry increase, the degree of monopolistic power in industrial markets will consequently increase. Hence, in this paper we measure the intensity of barriers ...
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One of the features of market structure is the extent of barriers to entry. According to economic theories, it is expected that when the barriers to entry increase, the degree of monopolistic power in industrial markets will consequently increase. Hence, in this paper we measure the intensity of barriers to entry and evaluate this structural variable in Iranian manufacturing sector. This study examines the factors that affect the extent of barriers to entry in industrial markets in the context of a dynamic panel data model with the technique of generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings show that the degree of concentration, intensity of advertising, research and development costs, rate of returns and economies of scale have significant and positive effect on the extent of barriers to entry in industrial markets of Iran.
Mohamad Ghasemi; parisa mohajeri
Volume 15, Issue 56 , April 2015, , Pages 75-104
Abstract
Economic fluctuations and emergence of commercial cycles are inseparable parts of any economy. It is obvious that anti-cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies will stabilize the fluctuations. In fact, if the ratio of government expenditure to GDP decreases (increases) during a boom (recession) the behaviour ...
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Economic fluctuations and emergence of commercial cycles are inseparable parts of any economy. It is obvious that anti-cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies will stabilize the fluctuations. In fact, if the ratio of government expenditure to GDP decreases (increases) during a boom (recession) the behaviour of fiscal policy will be anti-cyclical. In this paper, using data released by the Central Bank for the period between 1966 and 2013, a model has been developed to test the anti-cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Findings of this paper indicate that, firstly, regardless of the calculation method of time series of GDP fluctuations– Hodrick-Prescott and State-Space models– the hypothesis of Iran’s anti-cyclical fiscal policies is rejected. Secondly, Nonconformity of financial rules and means of injection of resources resulted from oil export into government budget are two crucial issues explaining why Iran’s fiscal policies are not anti-cyclical. Thus, institutional reforms, especially budgetary structure of the country, could improve the performance of fiscal policies during the economic cycles
Mohammadreza Asghari Oskoei
Volume 15, Issue 57 , July 2015, , Pages 75-108
Abstract
This paper proposes application of sliding window technique to time-delay neural network (TDNN) for prediction of financial time series. Neural network is a data-driven approach, in which we have huge data samples but limited information about the model structure. In this paper, we measure performance ...
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This paper proposes application of sliding window technique to time-delay neural network (TDNN) for prediction of financial time series. Neural network is a data-driven approach, in which we have huge data samples but limited information about the model structure. In this paper, we measure performance of the prediction and apply sliding window technique to select the most favorable neural network structure, time-delay taps and the most desirable training data size that result in the best prediction performance. The method was evaluated by using real data of share price of four firms traded in London Stock Exchange. The results show remarkable decrease for the root mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error and the linear regression of TDNN output offset.
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Volume 4, Issue 15 , January 2005, , Pages 75-108
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Volume 2, Issue 5 , July 2002, , Pages 75-94
Akbar Komeyjani; Mahmood Mahmoodzadeh
Volume 8, Issue 29 , July 2008, , Pages 75-107
Abstract
Analysis of ICT impacts on the economic performance has been started since 1990s. Researches have found different results about ICT outcomes in different countries at macro level. The aim goal of this paper is to investigate the impact of ICT on Economic Growth (EG) by using Growth Accounting theory ...
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Analysis of ICT impacts on the economic performance has been started since 1990s. Researches have found different results about ICT outcomes in different countries at macro level. The aim goal of this paper is to investigate the impact of ICT on Economic Growth (EG) by using Growth Accounting theory and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) in Iran over the period 1959-2003 at different subperiods.
Findings state that the non-ICT capital stock has the vital role (almost 50 percent) in EG. The employment share is 30-38 percent. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) accounts for 7-10 percent of EG. The production elasticity of ICT capital stock is 0.07. It contributes almost 7.0 percent of EG in the period of 1984-2003. This share doesn't consist of quality adjustment, usage, spillover, and technological effects, therefore it is the least. Also, there is a causal relationship from ICT capital stock on production in short and long run. In addition, the Scale of Return is unit in
Iran economy. Improvement of the complementary factors and ICT infrastructure and Promoting the usage of ICT can increase the contribution of ICT in Iran economy.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Zahra Elmi; Ali Sadeghzadeh Yazdi
Volume 7, Issue 25 , July 2007, , Pages 75-99
Abstract
In recent centuries, many surveys have been done about money demand function and the variables which affect it, in developed and developing countries. As far as knowing this function accurately, it helps economic planners to adopt suitable monetary and fiscal policies, in order to achieve economic ends. ...
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In recent centuries, many surveys have been done about money demand function and the variables which affect it, in developed and developing countries. As far as knowing this function accurately, it helps economic planners to adopt suitable monetary and fiscal policies, in order to achieve economic ends. Besides the known variables which estimate the money demand function, Gini coefficient variable can be used as income distribution variable in this function. In this article, the effect of Gini coefficient on money demand has been studied and evaluated. Also autoregressive distributed lag method (ARDL) and the annual data of 1999-2004 have been used. The results show that real money balance according to limited and wide money definition is cointegration with gross domestic product, rate of inflation and foreign exchange rate. And sign of Gini coefficient theoretically is not correct. To study short-run analysis of long-run equilibrium the error correction model was used, and the error correction term coefficient shows that, moving towards long-run equilibrium is slow in money market. The stability tests results show the stability of money demand function coefficients. In other words we can accept that money demand function is stable in Iran.
Mohsen Mehr-Ara; Sajjad Barkhordari; Mohsen Behzadi Soufiani
Abstract
This paper examines the nonlinear relationship between inflation and government spending using quarterly data over the period of 1990-2013, by using Smooth Transition Regression model. Our results suggest a two regime model by using inflation, government expenditure growth, GDP growth and liquidity growth ...
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This paper examines the nonlinear relationship between inflation and government spending using quarterly data over the period of 1990-2013, by using Smooth Transition Regression model. Our results suggest a two regime model by using inflation, government expenditure growth, GDP growth and liquidity growth as variables of the model, and first lag of liquidity was recognized as transition variable. This study showed that in the regime of tight money or low growth of liquidity, government expenditure is not inflationary. In regime of low liquidity growth, this variable has low inflationary impact and probably stimulates economic growth. Inflationary expectations in this regime are more effective in causing short run inflation. In expansionary regime (high liquidity growth), the increase in money supply has more effects on inflation rather than production. So monetary and fiscal policies could be used to control inflation and stimulate aggregate demand in low regime. Also in easy money regime, monetary and fiscal discipline can be useful for inflation decrease
Arian Daneshmand; Mohammad Sattarifar
Abstract
The role of information and communications technology (ICT) in promoting productivity growth has been the focus of much debate in the past few decades. To our knowledge, there is no prior study done on the Iranian economy that particularly has looked at the effect of internet use on labor productivity. ...
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The role of information and communications technology (ICT) in promoting productivity growth has been the focus of much debate in the past few decades. To our knowledge, there is no prior study done on the Iranian economy that particularly has looked at the effect of internet use on labor productivity. In this paper we explore short-run and long-run effects of internet use on labor productivity over the period 1989–2015 in Iran. We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach (Pesaran et al. 2001) within an augmented Solow (1956) growth model to examine contribution of internet use on labor productivity growth. We find that internet use has a positive long-run impact on labor productivity. Furthermore, the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) non-Granger causality test shows a bi-directional causal relationship between internet use and labor productivity.
Reza Zamani
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to study social order in Iran between two revolutions (1906-1979). Generally, there are two types of social order: limited- and open-access. Limited-access (or Natural State) social order is sub-categorized into three types of fragile, basic and mature. It can be shown ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to study social order in Iran between two revolutions (1906-1979). Generally, there are two types of social order: limited- and open-access. Limited-access (or Natural State) social order is sub-categorized into three types of fragile, basic and mature. It can be shown that between constitutional revolution and 1921 coup, Iran was caught in fragile natural state. Then, from this coup to political regime change from Qajariyyeh to Pahlavi (1921-1925), Iran was switching from fragile to basic natural state. Iran’s social order in Reza Shah era (1925-1941), was basic natural state and economic growth achieved in a closed political sphere which did lead to double imbalances. From 1941-1946 Iran experienced a sharp backward move to fragile social order. After that, social order was switching from fragile to basic natural state during 1947-1953. During period 1953-1963, basic natural state was stabilized. There were a lot of attempts to politically control the military (as the last transition condition to open-access social order) during 1941-1963, but these efforts finally failed. The golden decade of economic growth in Iran happened between 1963 to 1972. In this decade, economic system was switching form basic to mature natural state. However, political access was under tight restriction and control. Therefore, double imbalance of economic and political systems emerged again. In 1973-1979 the country was going back from basic to fragile natural state, and dominant coalition threatened and finally was overthrown completely by Islamic revolution (1979).
Ali Hussein Samadi; Razieh Tabandeh
Volume 7, Issue 26 , October 2007, , Pages 77-102
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to analys the short and long run relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit, import and export, and Government revenues and expenditures. Also sustainability condition of trade deficit and budget deficit is examined. For doing so, we apply the time series ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to analys the short and long run relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit, import and export, and Government revenues and expenditures. Also sustainability condition of trade deficit and budget deficit is examined. For doing so, we apply the time series econometrics techniques. The results show that to over come the budget deficit and trade deficit, the Government should, in the short run, decline budget deficit. In order to do this, we recommended that it has to decrease the taxes and increase the domestic deposits.
We could not find any cointegration relationship between government revenues and expenditures, export and imports, and two deficits.
Asadollah Jalalabadi; Samad Aziznezhad; Mahmood Reza Mostaghimi
Volume 7, Issue 24 , April 2007, , Pages 77-101
Abstract
Trade liberalization and elimination of price distorition can increase the relative advantage of domestic products. So, the import, especially, intermediate- capital goods import can increase the quality of products and competitiveness of industries. In this paper, the effects of macroeconomic variables ...
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Trade liberalization and elimination of price distorition can increase the relative advantage of domestic products. So, the import, especially, intermediate- capital goods import can increase the quality of products and competitiveness of industries. In this paper, the effects of macroeconomic variables on imported capital is analyzed. The results show that the import demand is widely affected by real exchange rate and real per capita income and that is less affected by the tariff rate, and by using error correction mechanism we found that if we are in disequilibrium, in each period 48 percent of the difference toward equlilibrioum is eliminated.
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Volume 5, Issue 16 , April 2005, , Pages 77-100
Ali Asghar Banouei; Afsaneh Sherkat; Fatemeh Bazzazan; Somayeh Shahhosseini; Azin Kiani Rad
Afsaneh Shafiee; Shahzad Boroumand; Ahmad Tashkini
Volume 6, Issue 23 , January 2007, , Pages 81-112
Abstract
This study examines the effect of fiscal policies on economic growth in Iran, applying ARDL[1] and VDCF[2] methods, for the period of 1959-2003. The results showed that government’s constructive expenditures and taxes affect economic growth significantly,and their effects are positive and negative, ...
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This study examines the effect of fiscal policies on economic growth in Iran, applying ARDL[1] and VDCF[2] methods, for the period of 1959-2003. The results showed that government’s constructive expenditures and taxes affect economic growth significantly,and their effects are positive and negative, respectively. This is the case that government’s consumption expenditures does not have a significant role in explaining the production’s changes. So it can be concluded that in Iran’s economy, it is better to lower the ratio of government’s consumption expenditures to its constructive expenditures, for the former causes more growth in price levels than production. [1]. Autoregressive Distributed Lags [2]. Variance Decomposition Function
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Volume 5, Issue 19 , January 2006, , Pages 81-113
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Volume 6, Issue 21 , July 2006, , Pages 81-120
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Volume 5, Issue 18 , October 2005, , Pages 81-111
Hossein Tavakolian; Vajihe Afzali Abarquyi
Abstract
Selection of exchange rate regime and its consequences, is one of the major issues in international finance. Dependence of Iran to oil export revenues gives an important role to exchange rate policy in the economy. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium open economy model for Iran, macroeconomic ...
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Selection of exchange rate regime and its consequences, is one of the major issues in international finance. Dependence of Iran to oil export revenues gives an important role to exchange rate policy in the economy. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium open economy model for Iran, macroeconomic performance of the economy in three exchange rate regimes of floating, managed floating and fixed exchange rate regimes are compared. The model includes households, firms, government, monetary authority and foreign trade sector and the model also consists of Calvo price rigidity in production sector. The model is estimated by optimization of activities in different sectors, linearization of resultant equations and Bayesian estimation of parameters using macroeconomic data of Iran. The results show that inflation fluctuations response to oil and technology shocks are more volatile than other shocks. In the fixed exchange rate regime inflation variation is the lowest and output variation is the highest.
Bijan Bid Abad; Kambiz Peykarjoo
Volume 7, Issue 27 , January 2008, , Pages 83-117
Abstract
This study recognizes and analyzes the basic main factors influencing demand and supply of petroleum; also in addition, with the use of analysis of supply surplus impact on global petroleum market, designs a model for simulation and prediction of oil price.
In this model, through the use of modification ...
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This study recognizes and analyzes the basic main factors influencing demand and supply of petroleum; also in addition, with the use of analysis of supply surplus impact on global petroleum market, designs a model for simulation and prediction of oil price.
In this model, through the use of modification method of Dynamic Disequilibrium Adjustment Model (DDAM), natural gas price variables, global gross domestic product (GDP),GDP of oil producing countries, production capacity of petroleum, oil supply surplus in market and global oil price, demand and supply of petroleum are being presented. The behaviour of natural gas market are transferred meaningfully to theoil market and cause changes in oil price.
In the dynamic simulations of model, the impacts of various shocks on supply and demand of oil prices are investigated and it will be predicted for the years 2008 till 2010. So, the designed model indicates that is has
proved to have the ability to analyze political shocks and to predict oil prices and can be used in policy making and oil price prediction too.
As a result, the model prediction shows that in the years 2008-2010 the oil price will partly go downward, frontier 100$, however this reduction will not reach to the price fall in the 1990 decade.
Ali Asghar Salem; Habib Morovat; Atefeh Heidary Milani; Masoumeh Azizkhani
Abstract
Over the last decade, there has been a clear increase in ICT expenditures by households, both in value and as a proportion of total expenditure. Such a trend, however, has not affected all households in the same way. This study analyzes the socio-economic determinants of urban household expenditures ...
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Over the last decade, there has been a clear increase in ICT expenditures by households, both in value and as a proportion of total expenditure. Such a trend, however, has not affected all households in the same way. This study analyzes the socio-economic determinants of urban household expenditures on ICT goods and services in Iran in the year 2019 based on microdata from the Household Budget Surveys. To achieve this, we have applied Heckman's two-stage model, aiming to identify the determinants affecting the likelihood of spending on ICT and the amount spent. Our analysis further dissects ICT spending into its constituent components, including IT goods, IT services, communication goods, and communication services. Based on the results, per capita income has a significant and positive effect both on the probability of spending and the level of per capita ICT expenditures. Moreover, households led by male heads are more likely to engage in ICT spending, although their actual expenditures are lower. Households with larger sizes and households which have a married head are more likely to spend on ICT. The impact of education level and age of the household’s head on both the probability to use and the amount spent is positive and significant. There is a negative quadratic relationship between the age of the household’s head and both the probability of spending and the level of per capita ICT expenditures. Furthermore, consumption economies of scale exist in ICT expenditures. The likelihood of spending on all types of ICT components is positively influenced by per capita income, size of the household, education and age of the household’s head. Concerning the level of per capita expenditures on IT goods and communication goods and services, they are higher for households who have higher per capita income. There is a negative quadratic relationship between the age of the household’s head and both the probability of spending and the level of communication services expenditures. Households with highly educated heads tend to allocate higher budgets to communication goods and services. Lastly, consumption economies of scale are observed in IT goods, IT services, and communication services.
Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani; Omidali Adeli
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the relationship between currency crises and fluctuations in banking credits in Iran. Utilizing a time-varying coefficients approach spanning from 1989 to 2022, alongside economic boom and recession indicators, the analysis assesses the impact of currency crisis occurrences ...
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This study aims to investigate the relationship between currency crises and fluctuations in banking credits in Iran. Utilizing a time-varying coefficients approach spanning from 1989 to 2022, alongside economic boom and recession indicators, the analysis assesses the impact of currency crisis occurrences on banking credit cycles. The currency crisis index, based on a dummy variable, and the credit cycle index, derived from banking credit booms and busts, are examined alongside the economic cycle, gauged by production fluctuations using intermediate filters. Findings suggest that currency crises influence the occurrence of credit cycles and production facility cycles, while shocks stemming from economic cycles exacerbate currency crises and credit cycles within the banking system. Given the bidirectional relationship observed between the currency crisis index and credit cycles, policymakers are advised to exercise caution in implementing drastic measures during economic fluctuations and credit cycles. Prudent management of currency markets can mitigate the adverse effects of currency crises on economic variables.
Introduction
Financial crises have profound and far-reaching implications, encompassing economic, political, and social spheres. They exact a heavy toll on society, manifesting in reduced welfare, heightened unemployment, and diminished public trust. Given their extensive repercussions across various sectors, financial crises have garnered considerable attention from economic policymakers. Among the diverse forms they take, currency crises stand out as particularly significant. These crises, marked by sudden depreciation or robust intervention by monetary authorities to bolster national currency values through foreign exchange reserve sales, exert widespread influence across the economy. They precipitate pressures on consumers, producers, and central banks, disrupting market dynamics for other assets and impinging on monetary policy frameworks. Moreover, they adversely impact credit allocation within the banking system, underscoring their multifaceted ramifications.
The main question investigated in this article pertains to the interplay between currency crises and credit cycles during the economic upswings and downturns in Iran. Given the nuanced nature of credit cycle delineation, coupled with the fluctuating dynamics of economic expansions and contractions, the vector autoregression (VAR) approach with time-varying coefficients has been employed to examine the evolving dynamics of this relationship spanning the period from 1989 to 2022. This methodological choice is motivated by its ability to yield more realistic findings, accounting for the temporal variability of coefficients and the dynamic interrelationships among variables. This contrasts with traditional time series models and conventional VAR frameworks, thereby enabling the formulation of more informed policy recommendations.
Methods and Material
In this study, credit cycles and currency crises spanning the period from 1989 to 2022 were extracted using the Cristiano and Fitzgerald filters. The relationship between these components and economic expansions and contractions was then explored. Additionally, the dynamic interplay among these variables was assessed using the vector autoregression method with time-varying coefficients (TVP-VAR). The study incorporates four primary variables: the currency crisis index, credit cycle, economic boom and recession periods, and liquidity growth. To compute the currency crisis index, a virtual variable was employed. The data utilized in this research were sourced from the Central Bank's database and statistical quarterly reports.
Results and Discussion
The findings from the TVP-VAR model reveal several significant dynamics. Initially, in response to a shock from the credit cycle, liquidity growth displays a positive reaction, with the impact dissipating over the long term. Conversely, the currency crisis initially reacts negatively to the credit cycle shock but eventually exhibits a positive response, indicating that the creation of the credit cycle contributes to the occurrence of currency crises. The economic cycle, when shocked by the credit cycle, responds negatively. On the other hand, when the credit cycle is shocked by the currency crisis, it initially reacts positively, followed by a subsequent negative reaction, with the long-term effect dissipating. Liquidity growth, in response to the currency crisis shock, demonstrates a positive reaction. Regarding the economic cycle, its response to the currency crisis shock is initially negative, then positive, and eventually negative again, suggesting that currency crises give rise to periods of economic expansion and contraction. In another aspect, the shock from the credit cycle prompts a positive reaction in liquidity growth, while the currency crisis variable responds negatively to the credit cycle shock. Initially, the credit cycle variable reacts positively to the credit cycle shock, but over time, it turns negative, with the impact fading in the long run. Finally, in response to the shock of liquidity growth, the currency crisis variable shows a positive reaction, the economic cycle reacts positively, and the credit cycle also responds positively, with the effect of the shock diminishing over time..
Figure 1. IRF diagram in TVP-VAR model format
Conclusion
The findings from this study highlight the adverse impact of currency crises on the economic cycle, leading to periods of recession. Conversely, economic downturns can exacerbate currency crises. Based on these results, it is advisable for monetary authorities and central banks to refrain from implementing contractionary policies, particularly in foreign exchange policies and credit restrictions, during economic downturns. Instead, they should expedite the process of foreign exchange allocation to economic enterprises for purchasing production inputs, thereby fostering an environment conducive to improving production and stimulating economic growth. Furthermore, during credit crises, commercial banks are encouraged to increase credit limits for commercial enterprises and streamline the loan repayment process in the micro-finance sector. These measures aim to prevent the economy from slipping into recession and promote sustainable economic development.
