Mahnoush Abdollah Milani; Soheila Parvin; kosar seyedi
Abstract
One of the important objectives of policymakers in a society is reduction of income inequality. Taxes, as source of stable income for government, are the most important tools for adjusting income inequality. An efficient tax system in the form of progressive taxation can lead to improved income distribution. ...
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One of the important objectives of policymakers in a society is reduction of income inequality. Taxes, as source of stable income for government, are the most important tools for adjusting income inequality. An efficient tax system in the form of progressive taxation can lead to improved income distribution. This paper evaluates the impact of progressive income tax on income inequality in 30 provinces during the period 2005 - 2013 in Iran. For this purpose, the average income tax rate is calculated for each income decile and its effect on Gini coefficient has been tested while controlling for other independent variables which include the share of services and industry sectors in GDP and per capita income growth in each province. The empirical method of this study was based on panel data approach for which we applied Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate the dynamic equation. The results show that although the income tax is progressive in Iran, but the tax system has failed to reduce income inequality.
Leila Sadat Zafaranchi; Teymour Mohammadi; Hasan Ta’ee; mahnoosh abdollah milani
Abstract
Nowadays explaining the behavior of household members is not considered as a neglected black box, and interactions between household members, can influence household consumption, employment and thus its welfare. Applying unitary model, the goal of this research is to estimate and study labor supply functions ...
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Nowadays explaining the behavior of household members is not considered as a neglected black box, and interactions between household members, can influence household consumption, employment and thus its welfare. Applying unitary model, the goal of this research is to estimate and study labor supply functions of dual-earner couples who have non-labor income, using Iranian rural-urban families' cost-expenditure data in year 2013. Supposing wage variable is endogenous, the estimation procedure is based on generalized method of moments. Our findings show that in the pattern of married women's labor supply, inverse of Mill's ratio is negative and statistically significant. So, computing this variable by Heckman's Two Step Model results in consistency of results. The elasticity of own wage labor supply of both couples is positive and statistically significant. From this point of view, the couple's labor supply curve, in studied sample, has standard shape. Studying cross wage elasticity, shows that couples' leisure time are complementary. In line with theoretical base, a rise in non-labor income has negative and statistically significant effect on couples' labor supply hours.
Saeed Moshiri; Maryam Parsa; Liela Darougar
Abstract
As a general-purpose technology, information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increasing productivity and economic growth in different sectors. Iran, as a semi-industrialized developing economy, has recently made relatively high level of investment on ICT in different sectors of the economy. ...
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As a general-purpose technology, information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increasing productivity and economic growth in different sectors. Iran, as a semi-industrialized developing economy, has recently made relatively high level of investment on ICT in different sectors of the economy. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between ICT sector and other sectors of the economy using an input-output table. We construct an input-output table with 37 sectors including ICT sector, using the updated IO table for year 2010. ICT goods production comprises 1.8 percent of total goods production and ICT service is 1.32 percent of the total service production. The results show that one unit increase in final demand for information technology (IT) products will increase total output by 1.63 units and one unit increase in final demand for communication technology (CT) products will increase total output by 2.18 units. The greatest impact of ICT in manufacturing sectors will be respectively in food and beverage, basic metal, and chemical products, and in the services sector in the wholesale, retail sale, financial intermediates, and real estate services. We also calculate the Average Propagation Length (APL) of the changes in the ICT final demand. The results indicate that the average propagation length of the changes in the ICT final demand is 1 for the services sector and 2 for the manufacturing industries.
Akbar Ahmadi
Abstract
Quantum games is a relatively new inter-disciplinary research field in theoretical physics and game theory. It tries to resolve issues like "Prisoner's Dilemma" from classical games and improve efficiency of a game by applying quantum rules and assumptions to it. In this paper we study the effects of ...
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Quantum games is a relatively new inter-disciplinary research field in theoretical physics and game theory. It tries to resolve issues like "Prisoner's Dilemma" from classical games and improve efficiency of a game by applying quantum rules and assumptions to it. In this paper we study the effects of "sales integration" in Iran's petrochemical products on the profit of petrochemicals industry by using a quantum game model. At present, there are over 50 petrochemical factories in the country that all of them are owned by private sector. These factories were selling their products in an integrated framework through a government-owned commerce company until 2008, when they were privatized. The results show that integration of petrochemical products sales can improve the profitability of the companies individually and as a whole industry.
fatemeh mirmohammadalitajrishi; teymour mohammadi; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
Expenditure pattern across households varies due to differences in their economic circumstances, household size and composition. So, movements in prices of goods over time will have different impacts on households. “Equivalence scale” is an index that enables us to do welfare comparisons ...
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Expenditure pattern across households varies due to differences in their economic circumstances, household size and composition. So, movements in prices of goods over time will have different impacts on households. “Equivalence scale” is an index that enables us to do welfare comparisons and measurements of poverty and inequality across heterogeneous households, under consideration of households’ demographic characteristics and economies of scale in consumption. Implementation of targeted subsidies policy in Iran that has made significant price variations in recent years, has changed Iranian households’ equivalence scale. In this research, the urban households’ equivalence scale and variation of relative cost of a child was estimated using PS-QUAIDS and nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SURs), applying Iranian household's budget dataset for 2008 to 2012. Results indicate that the cost of an urban child is equal to 13 percent of an adult for 2008 until 2010 and the targeted subsidies policy has a negative and significant impact on equivalence scale.
soheila parvin; mahnoosh abdollah milani; Vahid Rezaei
Abstract
Supportive policies that lead to significant relative price changes have widespread impact on income distribution that cannot be considered by adjusting expenditures with the consumer price index. While households have different consumption patterns in different income deciles, the Consumer Price Index ...
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Supportive policies that lead to significant relative price changes have widespread impact on income distribution that cannot be considered by adjusting expenditures with the consumer price index. While households have different consumption patterns in different income deciles, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in prices based on the pattern of consumption in the average-income households. To overcome the issue, this paper examines the impact of relative price changes on distribution of real income (real expenditure) based on the HSPI Index, which is calculated using the weights of goods in each household’s basket. The period under study is 2007-2015. To measure inequality, the Gini coefficient is used based on Ogwang method. The results show that in periods that price of foods increase more than other categories, income inequality is the more when calculated, respectively, based on Household Specific Price Index (HSPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) than Gini coefficient based on nominal expenditures. Because of higher share of foods in consumption basket of low-income households, higher relative price of this category leads to worsening of income distribution and loss of welfare for low-income class.
Sorayya Rafiee; Karim Emami; Farhad Ghaffari
Abstract
Banking system, as one of the most important parts of macroeconomy, plays a vital role in general economic equilibrium and transition of economic shocks in the society. Because of that, it is of sensitive role in national economy. In addition to implementing dictated monetary policies of central banks, ...
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Banking system, as one of the most important parts of macroeconomy, plays a vital role in general economic equilibrium and transition of economic shocks in the society. Because of that, it is of sensitive role in national economy. In addition to implementing dictated monetary policies of central banks, they as any economic business, pursue the goal of increasing their profitability. In this study, we use Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and take into account five economic sectors, namely households, entrepreneurs, mediator banks, distributors and government, to study the reaction of banks to emergence of monetary shocks. For this purpose, the authors seek to make use of long-term macroeconomic parameters. The results of our model show that, upon emergence of a positive shock on interest rate, due to the decrease of request for loan and the amount of lent money, the rate of loaning and as a result, the profit of banks is reduced, and in the case of a positive oil shock, the amount of market liquidity increases so the rate of loaning decreases and the scale of investment increases and finally, the households’ willingness to save is reduced. Therefore, the outcome of decrease of lending rate and decrease of deposits leads to a reduction in banks’ profitability.
Abdolrasoul Ghasemi; Atefeh Taklif; Teymour Mohammadi; fereshteh mohammadian
Abstract
This study is an attempt to present and numerically simulate a dynamic system of energy price-energy supply-economic growth to perform a comparative analysis of strategies for energy intensity reduction in Iran. To achieve this purpose, a nonlinear differential equation system is designed and the data ...
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This study is an attempt to present and numerically simulate a dynamic system of energy price-energy supply-economic growth to perform a comparative analysis of strategies for energy intensity reduction in Iran. To achieve this purpose, a nonlinear differential equation system is designed and the data for total domestic energy production, non-oil GDP and energy price index during period 1992-2014 are used to estimate the parameters of system by means of whale optimization algorithm. In the next stage, four strategies (exploration of new energy sources and imports, moving towards a self-regulatory market, industrial restructuring, and adoption of new energy production and price policies) are addressed based on aforementioned system. The results indicate that the first three strategies will stabilize the energy market, but the fourth strategy will only drive the system into a cyclical shock state. The effects of different individual and combined strategies on energy intensity are also investigated. The results show that under a reasonable control power, these strategies can reduce energy intensity, but an unplanned increase in control power leads to reverse results. As for the energy intensity stabilization under these strategies, the lowest energy intensity is achieved by the third strategy and the lowest time to stabilize energy intensity is under the second strategy. It should be noted that the comprehensive strategy (combination of the first three strategies) outperforms individual strategies both in energy intensity stabilization and energy intensity reduction. Accordingly, implementation of a comprehensive strategy or any of the individual strategies with reasonable control power rather that unconsidered and strict application of a specific strategy, is the best choice for reduction of the national energy intensity in Iran.
Ali Mazyaki; Solaleh Tavassoli; Mitra Babapour; Meysam Mazaheri; Anahita Hosseini; Mina Javid; Sahand Gharizadeh
Abstract
Although the importance of considering the capability approach in calculating poverty has been addressed in various studies, a major obstacle to achieving a measure like Alkire-Foster MPI in many countries is the lack of integrated micro indicators. In this study, we suggest a "repeated and random ...
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Although the importance of considering the capability approach in calculating poverty has been addressed in various studies, a major obstacle to achieving a measure like Alkire-Foster MPI in many countries is the lack of integrated micro indicators. In this study, we suggest a "repeated and random data generation" method using the macro amount of the missing indicator. Moreover, we apply this method to calculate and break down the acute poverty measure of Alkier and Foster in Iran. The results indicate that by using this method, we are able to achieve the desired level with very high precision. In addition, by breaking down multidimensional poverty into three dimensions of health, education, and standard of living, we show that during the last four decades, the share of educational deprivation in MPI is always increasing and has transformed into the most effective indicator in acute multidimensional poverty. Finally, by examining the characteristics of poor households, it can be noted that households with acute poverty have gradually become older, smaller, and less educated. Therefore, it seems that programs like subsidies to the entire society are no longer helpful for poverty reduction in Iran and it can be improved by better targeting and addressing educational deprivation.
Gholamreza Keshavarz Haddad; Haamed Vahidi
Abstract
Informational asymmetry between institutional and individual traders is one of the widely examined issues in financial markets. The preference of each of these groups to attain personal information may provide other traders with important information. Novice traders, seeking opportunities for profit, ...
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Informational asymmetry between institutional and individual traders is one of the widely examined issues in financial markets. The preference of each of these groups to attain personal information may provide other traders with important information. Novice traders, seeking opportunities for profit, can benefit by aligning themselves with the more informed group and monitoring their trading activities.This study aims to determine the winner group at attaining more personal information, by breaking down the probability of informed trading (PIN), a widely accepted metric for assessing informational risk, into two main components: the probability of informed trading of individuals (DPIN) and the probability of informed trading of institutions (SPIN). Moreover, the relation between these two components and the stock return has been tested using Fama-MacBeth two-step regression (1973). Our research draws on data from 35 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran's Fara-Bourse, spanning 19 seasons, from December 2015 to October 2020. Our findings challenge previous studies, revealing that institutional traders possess a distinct informational advantage over individual traders. Furthermore, our findings show that the effect of DPIN and SPIN on stock return is not statistically significant.
Samira Nasiri; Parviz Davoodi; Hosein Samsami; Hossein Tavakolian
Abstract
To achieve the optimal monetary policy, attention must be paid to a key element: the credibility of monetary policy authorities. Credibility plays a crucial role in the effectiveness of these policies, as it facilitates the attainment of targeted variables with minimal fluctuation and social cost. Conversely, ...
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To achieve the optimal monetary policy, attention must be paid to a key element: the credibility of monetary policy authorities. Credibility plays a crucial role in the effectiveness of these policies, as it facilitates the attainment of targeted variables with minimal fluctuation and social cost. Conversely, in times of unexpected economic shocks, discretionary policy becomes optimal, providing policymakers with flexibility to make appropriate monetary decisions.Conversely, in times of unexpected economic shocks, the use of discretionary policy is optimal because it provids policy makers with more flexibility to make appropriate monetary decisions. In this study, we pursued two goals. First, we constructed a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for an open and small economy according to the conditions of Iran's economy. We then estimated the of credibility of Iran’s monetary policy authority in managing both the inflation rate and exchange rate yielding figures of0.1019 and 0.0099 respectively. Then, in order to find the optimal discretionary monetary policy under the influence of two scenarios of low and high credibility of the monetary policy authorities, we utilized the minimum loss function approach. The results of the model indicated that the credibility of the monetary policy maker in Iran is very low in both the inflation rate and the exchange rate. Examining the loss function of the central bank showed that, in both scenarios, minimizing the exchange rate gap while assigning equal weight to other objectives leads to the lowest possible loss function value.IntroductionThe optimal monetary policy is the maximization of welfare or the minimization of social loss of economic factors that are applied according to the constraints governing a society. A very important point that governments should consider when implementing their economic policies is the ability of central banks to influence key macroeconomic variables through the implementation of these policies. The key element in the effectiveness of these policies is the credibility of the monetary policy authorities. The credibility of the monetary policy authorities depends on various factors and components, the most important of which is his commitment and ability to achieve well-defined goals. From the point of view of central banks and economists, the credit of the policymaker is important because it helps to achieve the variables targeted by the central bank with the least amount of volatility and the least social cost. The credibility of the authorities is an exogenous variable that the politician cannot influence quickly because the credibility, depends on his past behavior and his success rate in achieving the goals that he has clearly set. In this study, for the first time in the studies conducted in Iran, monetary policy was considered discretionary, and with the DSGE model, we estimated the credibility of the policymaker in the two fields of inflation and exchange rate. The difference between this study and other studies conducted so far considering the discretionary policy is that they had always first considered a rule for policy making, and then, in a discretionary policy, the parameters estimated with the assumption of the rule have been used, but in this study, no rule has been considered for monetary and exchange rate policy. After estimating the credit value of the policy authority, we entered the credit values of monetary policy authority in the central bank's loss function, which is also done for the first time in Iran.In this research, we seek to answer the following questions:How much is the credit of the monetary policy authority in the field of inflation rate and exchange rate in Iran?Optimal monetary policy by considering the credit of the monetary policy authorities, in which weights will be obtained from the central bank's loss function?MethodIn this research, we used a DSGE model for an open and small economy and we tried to adjust all parts of the model according to the conditions of Iran's economy. Then by using the Bayesian approach, we estimated the values of the model's parameters, including the credibility of the policy authorities. At last, we used the loss function approach to obtain the optimal monetary policy.Results and DiscussionWe obtained the values of the variables using the Bayesian method. The obtained values for the credibility coefficient in the two fields of inflation rate and exchange rate were obtained as 0.1019 and 0.0099, respectively. In order to check the validity of the estimates, the Geweke (1992) test was used, which makes the calculations much less and faster than the Brooks & Gelman test. Then we used an identification test to determine the values of 𝛻 and ∇_e. Since these parameters could not be identified, we had to calibrate and analyze their sensitivity. The estimation results showed that the credibility of the monetary policy maker in Iran is low in both the fields of inflation and exchange rate and it is worse in the field of exchange rate.In pursuit of finding the optimal monetary policy in discretionary policy, by assigning different weights to the goals of the central bank, under two scenarios of low and high credit of the monetary policy maker, we try to obtain the minimum amount of the loss function. The results are reported in tables (1) and (2).In both scenarios, the examination of different weightings to the coefficients of the central bank's goals in the loss function shows that in the case where the monetary policy authorities give the higher weight to the reduction of the exchange rate gap and equal weight for all three other goals, the amount of loss function of the central bank is less and in the scenario of low and high credit of the policy authority is equivalent to 0.0030 and 0.0036 respectively. Perhaps the reason for this can be found in the oil structure of Iran's economy.ConclusionWe designed a DSGE model for Iran's economy and we estimated the amount of credibility of the monetary policy authority in two fields of inflation rate and exchange rate which are very low. Then, in order to find the optimal discretionary monetary policy under the influence of two scenarios of low and high credibility of the monetary policy authorities, we used the approach of the minimum value of the loss function. To further investigate the model, we analyzed the impulse and response functions for the main variables of the model to productivity shocks, government spending and oil price inflation in two scenarios. In all the input impulses, we found that the high credit of the monetary policy authority causes fewer fluctuations in the key variables of the model compared to the low credit of the policy maker. The results show that when the policymaker has a favorable reputation, the members of the society consider the effects of shocks to be temporary and do not anchor their decisions to it; therefore, even if the policy authority does not implement a specific policy to mitigate the effects of the shock, the variables will stabilize faster than when the credibility of the monetary policy maker is low. Table 1. Variance values of key variables and loss function in different weights to different objectives of the central bank based on the low credibility of the monetary policy maker in IranLoss function The growth rate of moneyExchange rateProductionInflation0.00570.01070950.0001080.0488740.0002550.0001210.1998800.5522740.00006111110.00320.0108780.0000370.0491810.0002390.00012380.2009630.5568540.0000710.510.510.00310.0108370.0001140.0490030.0002470.0001200.2004290.5524500.0000620.50.50.510.00320.0105980.0001360.0484430.0002710.0001240.1971120.5470300.0000300.50.510.50.00300.0108390.00002340.0490700.0002450.0001250.2004830.5571800.0000700.5110.5Source 1: research findingsTable 2. Variance values of key variables and loss function in different weights to different objectives of the central bank under the high credibility of the monetary policy maker in IranLoss function The growth rate of moneyExchange rateProductionInflation0.00710.0109100.0000200.0491810.0002520.0001250.2008670.5545190.00007511110.00430.0109920.0000070.0492830.0002430.0001240.2011880.5528290.0000860.510.510.00420.0109750.0000230.0492140.0002440.0001220.2010130.5503740.0000790.50.50.510.00400.0107380.0000280.0490630.0002700.0001280.1992800.5535860.0000280.50.510.50.00360.0109280.0000060.0492520.0002480.0001270.2010520.5570540.0000810.5110.5Source 2: research finding
Abbas Shakeri; Elnaz Bagherpur Oskouie
Abstract
This study utilizes the continuous wavelet transform approach and time-frequency domain analysis to shed new light on the causal relationship between land, housing prices, liquidity , and economic growth. According to the results of the research: 1) In the short term (12-month cycle), the ...
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This study utilizes the continuous wavelet transform approach and time-frequency domain analysis to shed new light on the causal relationship between land, housing prices, liquidity , and economic growth. According to the results of the research: 1) In the short term (12-month cycle), the relationship between housing/land prices and liquidity is two-way and direct, while in lower frequencies (long-term), a direct causal relationship from liquidity to the growth of housing/land prices is evident. 2) Analysing the dynamics of the causal relationship between housing/land prices and economic growthindicates a long-term causal relationship between these variables. 3) In the medium and long term, a stable, strong, and in-phase relationship exists between the ratio of liquidity to GDP and the ratio of the housing price index to the price index. This implies that when the liquidity-to-GDP ratio increases, leading to a higher influx of liquidity into the land and housing sector, the housing price index surpasses the overall price index.
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Volume 5, Issue 19 , January 2006, , Pages 11-44
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Volume 4, Issue 15 , January 2005, , Pages 11-52
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Volume 1, Issue 2 , October 2001, , Pages 11-27
Hosein Namazi
Volume 1, Issue 1 , July 2001, , Pages 11-16
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Volume 5, Issue 17 , July 2005, , Pages 11-38
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Volume 5, Issue 16 , April 2005, , Pages 11-35
Soheila Parvin; Abass Shakeri; Samaneh Naseri
Abstract
Economic sanctions are a low-cost tool that replaces military action with a high economic, political and human cost. The severity of the effects of sanctions depends on the degree of dependence of the target economy on the outside world, the cooperation of the international community with the ones ...
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Economic sanctions are a low-cost tool that replaces military action with a high economic, political and human cost. The severity of the effects of sanctions depends on the degree of dependence of the target economy on the outside world, the cooperation of the international community with the ones imposing sanctions, and the potential ability to substitute domestic production with imports. If domestic supply is sufficiently resilient, sanctions act, such as an import substitution policy, can lead to higher growth and more employment. Otherwise, sanctions will act as a lack of domestic supply. This study evaluates the welfare effects of sanctions on basic items - whose rising prices affect living standards. We use a multiple choice model and logit function, the income and cost effects of sanctions as well as the impact of exchange rate changes on the price of basic goods on the welfare standard and the probability of households joining the poor group are considered. The results show that, due to the inelastic domestic supply, the possibility of substituting imports is limited, so the cost effects are dominant for the year 2019, in the effective exchange rate scenario, poverty growth is estimated at %2.2 (about 1828 thousand people, and in the official exchange rate scenario, poverty growth is 3.1 percent (and about 2575 thousand People have joined the poor group).
Akbar Komijani; Ramin Mojab
Volume 11, Issue 41 , July 2011, , Pages 13-30
Abstract
Uncertainty results from economic and noneconomic government policies. Thispaper tries to identify the benefits or the costs of these uncertainties by analyzingthe relationship between Inflation uncertainty and Investment in Iran in quarterlyperiod of 1368:1-1387:2 (1989:1-2008:2). The results ...
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Uncertainty results from economic and noneconomic government policies. Thispaper tries to identify the benefits or the costs of these uncertainties by analyzingthe relationship between Inflation uncertainty and Investment in Iran in quarterlyperiod of 1368:1-1387:2 (1989:1-2008:2). The results confirm a negativerelationship between inflation uncertainty and investment.
Kamran Mani; Jamshid Pajuyan; Teymor Mohammadi
Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 13-37
Abstract
The relationship between financial markets and the economic growth is a subject that has obviously been observed by many economists since the lifetime of Joseph Schumpeter. There have been various analyses and opinions on the development of financial markets and their effects on economic growth, and ...
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The relationship between financial markets and the economic growth is a subject that has obviously been observed by many economists since the lifetime of Joseph Schumpeter. There have been various analyses and opinions on the development of financial markets and their effects on economic growth, and various conclusions have been achieved through experimental studies. Some theoreticians view religious and cultural condition of countries as the factors of satisfactory effects on economical growth. Others believe bureaucracy and political establishment to be the main causes of such growth, while another group believes that the economic policy and strategies of each country play roles. The present article emphasizes the effect of taxes on the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in a model of endogenous growth. This effectiveness will be analyzed for period of (1992-2008). In this analysis, the study of panel data of more than 65 countries in the world signifies that taxes have negative effects and the development of commercial interactions has positive effects on the relationship between financial markets and economic growth. of Course, empirical findings of the study do not indicate significant relationship between taxes, financial markets and economic growth in the middle east countries.
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Volume 4, Issue 14 , October 2004, , Pages 13-54
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Volume 2, Issue 7 , January 2003, , Pages 13-66
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Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 13-42
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Volume 2, Issue 4 , April 2002, , Pages 13-36
