Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is one of the main factors in international competitiveness whose increase or decrease will enhance or reduce a country's export competitiveness. So its maintenance or enhancement will have positive effects on a country's trade balance and vice versa. Other factors effect on REER too. Economic shocks may change the REER in the short-term but in the long-term, the REER is determined based on fundamental variables.
So popular form of equations has been provided to assess the effects of fundamental variables on REER .The intended model was chosen after different estimations and studying them theoretically and empirically and in terms measures of goodness of fit. The results of the estimations indicate that with respect to different statistics, the thesis model is that which the dependent variable is the REER based on export unit value. This model has been estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method using the calculated data for REERs and the data relevant to other variables. The estimated relationship for REER indicates a long-term one in which all estimated coefficients has the expected signs and comply the theoretical foundations.

1. سالنامه‌های‌آماری‌کشور، سالهای‌مختلف.
2. سالنامه‌های‌آمار بازرگانی‌خارجی‌کشور، سالهای‌مختلف.
3. لوح فشرده (CD) مربوط به IFS.
4. لوح فشرده (CD) مربوط به.UNCTAD
5. ترازنامه بانک مرکزی، سالهای‌مختلف.
6. لوح فشرده (CD) مربوط به World Bank.
7. Alavirad, Abbas and Athawale, Sanhita, "The Impact of the Budget Deficit on Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran"., OPEC Review,Vol. 29, (March 2005).
8. Bahmani Oskooee, Mohsen, "Nominal and  Real Effective Exchange Rates of  Middle Eastern Countries and Their Trade Performance"., Applied Economics, No.33, (2001).
9. Buckley, P. J. et al., "Measures of International Competitiveness: A Critical Survey"., Journal of Marketing Management, Vol. 4, No. 2, (1988).
10. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "International Comparisons of Manufacturing Productivity and Unit Labor Cost Trends"., Washington, D.C, (September, 2002).
11. Dollar, D., N.E. Wolff. Competitiveness, Convergence and International Specialization. The MIT Press., 1993.
12. Durand, Martine, and Claude, Giorno, "Indicators of International Competitiveness Conceptual Aspects and Evaluation"., OECD Economic Studies, No. 9, (Autumn, 1987).
13. Engle, R. F and Granger, C. W. "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing"., Econometrica, Vol.55, (March,1987).
14. Fagerberg, J. "International Competitiveness"., The Economic Journal, No.391, (June 1988).
15. Francis, A., and P.K. The Concepts of Competitiveness in Competitiveness of European Industry. Routledge, London., 1989.
16. Francois, J. F., K.A. Reinert., Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis: A Handbook, Cambridge University Press., 1997.
17. Granger, C. W. J, "Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification"., Journal of Econometrics,Vol.16, No.1, (1981).
18. Granger, C. W. J and Newbold, P. "Spurious Regression in Econometrics"., Journal of Econometrics, (1974).
19. Green, W. H, Econometrics Analysis. Mc Graw Hill., 1997.
20. Guerrieri, Paolo and Milana, Calo. New Indicators of Price Competitiveness and Effective Exchange Rates., Weltwirt Schaftliches Archiv, Vol. 129. No.4, (1993).
21. Hatsopoulos, G., P. Krugman, L. Summers, "U.S. Competitiveness: Beyond the Trade Deficit"., Science, No. 241, (1988).   
22. Hickman, B. G. International Productivity and Competitiveness: An Overview. in Hickman (ed.), International Productivity and Competitiveness, Oxford University Press, New York., 1992.
23. Johansen, S and K. Juselius. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Inference On Cointegration:with Application to the Demand For Money"., Oxford Bulletin Economics, No.18, (1985).
24. Lall, Sanjaya. "Competitiveness Indices and Developing Countries An Economic Evaluation of the Global Competitiveness Report"., Elsevier, World Development, Vol. 29, No.9, ( 2001).
25. Lipschitz, Leslie and Mc Donald, Donogh. "Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness: A Clarification of Concepts, and Some Measurements for Europe"., IMF Working Paper, No. WP/91/25, (March, 1991).
26. Mandeng, O. J. "International Competitiveness and Specialization"., CEPAL Review, No. 45, (December, 1991).
27. Marsh, Ian. w and Tokarick, Stephen. P. "An Assessment of Three Measures of Competitiveness"., Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 132(4), (1996).
28. Marsh, Ian. W and Tokarick, Stephen. P. "Competitiveness Indicators: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment"., IMF Working Paper, No. WP/94/29, (March, 1994).
29. Mc Donald, Ronald  and Ricci, Luca, "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect:The Role of the Distribution Sector"., IMF Working Paper, No.wp/01/38, (March 2001).
30. MC Guirk, Anne. "Measuring Price Competitiveness for Industrial Country Trade in Manufactures"., IMF Working Paper, No. WP/87/34, (April 1987).
31. Lee, Jaewoo and Tang, Man-Keung, "Does Productivity Growth Lead to Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate?''., IMF Working Paper, No.WP/03/154, (July 2003).
32. Porter, M. "The Competitive Advantage of Nations"., Harvard Business Review, No.2, (March/April, 1990).
33. Siggel, Eckhard. "Concepts and Measurements of Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: Towards an Integrated Approach"., Concordia University, Montreal, 2003.
34. Siggel, E. and J. Cockburn. "International Competitiveness and its Sources: A Method of Development Policy Analysis"., Concordia University Department of Economics, Discussion Paper 9517, (1995).
35. Sundararajan , V., Lazare, Michel, and Williams Sherwyn. "Exchange Rate Unification, the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: The Case of the Islamic  Republic of Iran"., IMF Working Paper,
No. WP/99/15, (January, 1999).
36. Swann, P., M. Taghavi. Measuring Price and Quality Competitiveness. Avebury, 1992.
37. Zanello, Alessandro and Desruelle, Dominique, "Aprimer on the IMF’s Information Notice System"., IMF Working Paper, No. wp/97/71, (May, 1997).