Financial Development and CO2 Emissions in Iran: Asymmetric Evidence from Institution-Based and Market-Based Indicators

Azami, Somayeh; Nookani, Alireza

doi:10.22054/joer.2026.88558.1298

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Somayeh Azami ¹
Alireza Nookani ²

¹ Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

² M.A. in Economics, Department of Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

10.22054/joer.2026.88558.1298

Abstract

Financial development plays an important role in economic development and growth. However, the question arises as to what effect financial development has on environmental quality. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of institution-based and market-based indicators of financial development on Iran's carbon dioxide emissions. Considering the different aspects of market-based and institution-based indicators, a market-based composite financial development index and an institution-based composite financial development indices are constructed using principal component analysis (PCA). The estimation of the nonlinear ARDL models shows that renewable energy significantly leads to emission reduction and improvement of environmental quality. The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Iran is confirmed and short-run GDP dynamics is significant. Positive shocks to the market-based composite index do not lead to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions but positive shocks to the institution-based composite index lead to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Negative shocks to the market-based composite index significantly lead to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, but negative shocks to the institution-based composite index do not significantly lead to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, the quality of the environment in Iran shows a different and asymmetric response to shocks to financial development indicators. Financial development, especially in the banking sector, requires complementary policies, including strengthening the use of renewable energies, to control its negative environmental effects. The development of the stock market can be a way for the sustainable development of Iran.

Introduction

In recent decades, environmental degradation has become one of the most important global challenges. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, has caused global warming and widespread climate change, which has devastating effects on natural ecosystems, water resources, and biodiversity. Against this backdrop, financial development, as one of the main drivers of economic activity, plays a dual and contested role in environmental quality. The main issue is that the mechanisms of financial development's impact on the environment are accompanied by significant theoretical and empirical ambiguity. Iran has been among the ten largest emitters of carbon dioxide in the world in recent years. The fundamental question is whether financial development acts as a driver or a restraint of carbon dioxide emissions in Iran. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of different financial development indicators on Iran's carbon dioxide emissions in the period 1981-2021.

Methods and Materials

Given that different and sometimes contradictory results are seen in the literature regarding the impact of financial development on CO2 emissions, an attempt was made to use both groups of institution-based and market-based financial development indicators. The Global Financial Development Database reports two groups of market-based and institution-based financial development indicators. Previous studies have often used unidimensional indicators to measure financial development that are unable to separate the effects of "financial institutions" from "financial markets". Subsequently, drawing on the diversity of institution-based and market-based indicators, composite indices for each group are constructed using principal component analysis. Finally, the impact of positive and negative financial development shocks on carbon dioxide emissions is examined separately using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Also, this model examines the possibility of analyzing the short-run and long-run effects of financial development on environmental quality to provide a more accurate picture of the dynamics of this relationship over time.

Results and Discussion

The estimation of the nonlinear ARDL model shows that renewable energies significantly lead to emission reduction and improvement in environmental quality, and the environmental Kuznets curve is confirmed in Iran. Positive shocks to the market-based composite financial development index do not lead to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions, but negative shocks to the market-based composite financial development index significantly lead to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions. Positive shocks to the institution-based composite financial development index lead to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions, but negative shocks to the institution-based composite financial development index do not significantly lead to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions. These results indicate that the impact of financial development on environmental quality in Iran is asymmetric, varying significantly between institution-based and market-based indicators.

Conclusion

It is predicted that stock market development will not have a significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions and therefore provides a platform for moving towards sustainable development and a low-carbon economy. Banking sector development as one of the main pillars of the financial system leads to a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, financial development, especially in the banking sector, requires complementary policies, including strengthening the use of renewable energies, in order to control its negative environmental effects. The development of financial institutions without expanding the use of renewable energy makes it difficult to achieve sustainable development. In addition to expanding banking activities, policymakers need to prioritize investing in renewable energies, improving energy efficiency, and making bank facilities conditional on compliance with environmental standards. In contrast, financial market development is expected to play a prominent role in achieving sustainable development in Iran and be a tool for transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Strengthening the role of the capital market in financing low-carbon projects, issuing green bonds, and creating tax incentives for green companies can contribute to sustainable development.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Financial Economics

References

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Financial Development and CO2 Emissions in Iran: Asymmetric Evidence from Institution-Based and Market-Based Indicators

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Volume 25, Issue 97 - Serial Number 2
July 2025
Pages 87-134