Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 PhD student in Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 Master of Economics Graduate, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
4 Master of Economics Graduate, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
Abstract
Economic welfare, as a key indicator of development, plays a vital role in improving living standards and the economic sustainability of countries. One of the factors influencing economic welfare is the size and growth of the population. Accordingly, the impact of population growth rate on economic welfare is a subject that can guide policymakers towards achieving development. To this end, the present study aims to investigate the effect of population growth on economic welfare in Iran during the period of 1971 to 2023, using linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL and NARDL). The results of the first (symmetric) model show that population growth has a negative effect on economic welfare in both the short and long term. The results also indicate that per capita income, economic growth, and government size have a positive and significant effect on economic welfare. The inflation rate also has a negative and significant effect on welfare, but the unemployment rate does not have a significant effect on economic welfare. The results of the second (asymmetric) model also show that in both the short and long term, an increase in population growth (positive shocks) has a negative and significant effect on economic welfare, while a decrease in population growth (negative shocks) has no significant effect on welfare. The other results also indicate that per capita income, economic growth, and government size have a positive and significant effect on economic welfare. The inflation rate also has a negative and significant effect on welfare, but the ...
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