Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 PhD Candidate in economics, Urmia University, Iran
2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
3 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
Abstract
This study examines the effects of energy price liberalization on environmental outcomes and mineral product sectors across 3country groups: Iran, its main trading partners, and the rest of the world. Using a DCGE model combined with the GTAP-E database, 2scenarios are simulated1.5% increase in gas prices2.5% increase in oil prices projected up to 2050. The results indicate that in Iran, a rise in gas prices causes a gradual and sustained reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. This effect is driven by decreased fossil fuel consumption and a shift toward more efficient or alternative energy sources in mineral production. The oil price increase scenario also reduces emissions significantly but to a lesser degree. Among Iran’s trading partners, the gas price shock leads to long-term emission reductions due to higher production costs and adoption of cleaner technologies. The oil price shock, however, triggers faster emission decreases because of the mining sector’s dependence on oil and accelerated investments in energy-saving practices. For other regions, the gas price increase initially causes a moderate drop in emissions but is followed by a temporary rebound, reflecting delayed decarbonization efforts. On the other hand, the oil price increase results in a persistent decline in emissions, highlighting the crucial role of oil in energy and mining sectors worldwide.These findings stress the importance of aligning energy price liberalization policies with market realities while promoting improved energy consumption efficiency and innovation in clean technologies. Ultimately, such policies can support sustainable economic growth and environmental protection through effective incentives and technological advancement.
Keywords
Main Subjects
)