Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 PhD Student in International Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashahad, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Power and Energy Economics, Niroo Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Electricity trade has emerged as a crucial element within the global energy market, necessitating strategic optimization of Iran's role within this system. This study endeavors to design a mathematical model for optimizing Iran’s electricity exchanges by analyzing the balance between direct electricity exports and indirect exports, particularly through product groups such as steel and cement. The research employs an applied quantitative design, utilizing supply and demand modeling, and integrating elements of trade network analysis and competitiveness theory. The statistical population encompassed Iran's electricity-intensive export sectors, with key products demonstrating high energy consumption and export relevance selected via a purposive sampling method. The study modeled decision-making scenarios related to electricity production, import, and export structures, employing a mathematical framework rooted in competitiveness indices and trade gravity models. Data analysis was performed using sensitivity analysis and network trade indicators. The results indicate that a moderate increase in electricity production capacity significantly supports enhanced profitability and regional competitiveness, while excessive expansion leads to diminishing returns. Steel was identified as a high-potential long-term export product, whereas cement proved to be a more viable short-term option. The study concludes that reforms in the supply structure and the implementation of targeted export strategies are essential for improving Iran’s electricity trade, noting that increased bargaining power alone will not guarantee higher profitability. The developed model serves as a strategic planning tool to strengthen Iran’s position in both regional and international electricity trade.
Keywords
- Optimization
- electricity trade
- export balance
- competitiveness analysis
- export and import
- indirect export
Main Subjects
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