Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• abbas shakeri ¹
• teymour mohammadi ²
• Mohammad Jafari ³

¹ Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University,

² Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

³ PhD Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

Abstract

The significance of oil market and its impact on economic growth in oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries has led to examination of factors affecting it in different studies. Financial market and its components have penetrated in traditional oil market and this has resulted in creation of exchanges to trade oil-related securities. Therefore, the importance of financial markets has emerged not as an exogenous variable but as an endogenous variable within the oil market. Scientific results of the research demonstrate that the long-term impact of futures markets on the oil market is definite, however during the crises, due to the concerns about complicated crisis conditions, the effective time horizon becomes short-term, and consequently it is the spot market that influences future variables. Therefore, it is suggested that, in order to prevent the impact of global financial crises on the state’s budget, we have to monitor the financial markets and also participate in oil futures market which has the advantage of generating risk coverage and ensuring the country’s budget to become secure against price fluctuations of international markets. Finally, by undertaking a wise strategy of speculation, we can take advantage of potential opportunities, if supported by domestic financial institutions and Ministry of Petroleum and, therefore, earn the country tremendous revenues.

Keywords

• Financial Crisis
• Oil Market
• Futures Market
• VAR Model