Narges Ahmadvand; Mohammad Alizadeh; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Mahbobeh Delfan
Abstract
The government expenditure in economic affairs can act as a tool for creating and sustaining development by improving income distribution. Therefore, prioritization and optimal allocation of economic expenditures of governments will be so important. In this regard, the present study has investigated ...
Read More
The government expenditure in economic affairs can act as a tool for creating and sustaining development by improving income distribution. Therefore, prioritization and optimal allocation of economic expenditures of governments will be so important. In this regard, the present study has investigated the impact of government expenditure on economic sector and related sub-sectors (agriculture, industry and mining, trade, information technology, energy, housing, transportation, environment, cooperatives affairs, and water resources) on income distribution in Iran's economy during business cycles. In this study, Markov Switching Auto Regressive model (MSAR) has been used to estimate time-series data during the time period between 1973 to 2019. The result of the study indicates that economic sector and agricultural, water resources and transportation subsectors during business cycles, “housing, trade, and cooperative affairs” subsectors during the boom periods, and the environment subsector during the recession periods have reduced income inequality significantly. Also, the government expenditure in industrial, mining, and energy subsectors during business cycles and information technology subsector during the boom periods have increased income inequality significantly. Finally, the subsectors of agricultural, water, industry and mining, commerce and cooperation, transportation have been more stable in the recession regime. Meanwhile, the economic sector and subsectors of information technology, housing and development, environment and energy have been more stable in the boom regime. Therefore, the components of government expenditure on income distribution have asymmetric behavior.
Hassan Dargahi; Amin Beiranvand
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, social and demographic factors with the prevalence rate of drug use in the provinces of Iran during the period of 1386-1394. Due to the lack of reliable and sufficient data, a time series data for the prevalence rate is developed ...
Read More
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, social and demographic factors with the prevalence rate of drug use in the provinces of Iran during the period of 1386-1394. Due to the lack of reliable and sufficient data, a time series data for the prevalence rate is developed by using probit models and estimation of the probabilities of addiction for 10 age groups with different demographic characteristics in three groups of provinces (with high, medium, and low prevalence rates). Then, the panel data model was used to answer the research questions. The results of the first part of this study show that the prevalence rate of drug use in the Iran increased from about 3.7% in 2007 to about 4.5% in Year 2015. The results of the second part of the study show that the prevalence rate of addiction has a negative and significant relationship with per capita income; men education level, and has a positive and significant relationship with inflation and Gini coefficient. Also, the results indicate a positive and significant relationship between the prevalence rate of addiction and the poverty and unemployment (especially men unemployment). Another finding is the negative and significant relation between the prevalence of addiction and the real per capita government expenditure. Also, the positive relationship of the economic downturn with the prevalence rate is confirmed. This fact suggests that the rate of drug addiction is counter-cyclical in the country.
Salman Farajnia; Kowsar Yousefi; Mehdi Fadaee
Abstract
The natural rate of unemployment is affected by a variety of factors, including sectoral shifts. However, the inclusion of such factors is ignored in most of the researches. We employ standard deviation of sectoral employment as a proxy for sectoral shift, and use it to calculate the natural rate of ...
Read More
The natural rate of unemployment is affected by a variety of factors, including sectoral shifts. However, the inclusion of such factors is ignored in most of the researches. We employ standard deviation of sectoral employment as a proxy for sectoral shift, and use it to calculate the natural rate of unemployment and the impact of unanticipated monetary policies on employment. The data is from the Labor Force Survey, 1384 to 1396. Results indicate that the sectoral standard deviation of employment has no significant effect on the unemployment rate. We interpret it due to the considerable share of permanent unemployment (those without any job in the past five years) in Iran's data with respect to seasonal unemployment. The permanent unemployment is about 40% in Iran while this number is 15% in the United States. Moreover, we find that the standard deviation of “job destruction” is negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. This might be due to less job destruction during the economic boom which causes the standard deviation to fall.
Esfandiar Jahangard; parisa mohajeri; leila momeni
Abstract
The subject of labor force productivity changes during business cycles has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomics, which has gained less attention among studies focusing on Iranian Economy. In the study, we have aimed at empirically examining the role that labor force productivity fluctuations ...
Read More
The subject of labor force productivity changes during business cycles has been the focus of much debate among macroeconomics, which has gained less attention among studies focusing on Iranian Economy. In the study, we have aimed at empirically examining the role that labor force productivity fluctuations play during economic cycles in the Iran using time-series data for the period of 2005Q2-2015Q1 by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. In order to estimate relations, we have separated fluctuation and trend components based on Hodrick-Prescott filter. Based on our results, it is suggested that labor force productivity moves in alignment with GDP and increases in expansion periods and decreases in recession periods which indicate pro-cyclical behavior of labor force productivity in Iranian Economy. Second, in the last seasons of an expansion period, the role of labor force productivity fluctuations decreases in gross domestic product fluctuations which is along with the theory.
Mohammad Sayadi; Abbas Shakeri; Teymur Mohammadi; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks on macroeconomic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with the consideration of features such as big size of government activities in the economy, inefficiency of government investment, ...
Read More
The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of oil revenue, productivity and money growth rate shocks on macroeconomic variables, in the context of a DSGE model with the consideration of features such as big size of government activities in the economy, inefficiency of government investment, the need to invest in development of infrastructures, and existence of “National Development Fund” (NDF) to support private sector investment. The research findings based on RBC model, show that oil revenue shock has increased the consumption, government spending (both current and capital expenditures) and has decreased inflation in short-run; although because the oil shock is transferred to demand side, this situation leads to increase of inflation in medium-term. Our results show that when the oil revenue increases, the resources of NDF and consequently the share of credit granted to private sector will be raised and this can promote private sector production. In addition, because of the structure of Iranian economy, the increase in oil revenue has little effect on growth and development of production in non-oil producing sectors. Furthermore, the research findings show that when the inefficiency of public investments decreases, the investment of oil revenues has more positive effects on private sector production as a crowding-in effect phenomenon. Likewise, each of productivity and monetary shocks in the model has the same results as the theoretical expectations.
Meysam Rafei; Javid Bahrami; Davood Daneshjafari
Volume 14, Issue 54 , October 2014, , Pages 33-65
Abstract
In this paper by using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model we study how macroeconomic variables are affected by different shocks using fiscal reaction functions for Iran’s economy. For this purpose we compare the results of a real business cycles model in a baseline scenario, in which ...
Read More
In this paper by using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model we study how macroeconomic variables are affected by different shocks using fiscal reaction functions for Iran’s economy. For this purpose we compare the results of a real business cycles model in a baseline scenario, in which the government does not follow any specific reaction to the shocks and alternatives in which the government reacts counter and pro cyclically to the shocks. Results of the simulations indicate that when the government follows backward looking fiscal rules the deviation of the variables from steady state increases. In other words, in a real business cycle model for the Iranian economy, we show that the consequence of the government’s intervention in the economy is economic instability in Iran.
Javid Bahrami; Ahmad Mohammadi; Reza Taleblu
Volume 12, Issue 44 , April 2012, , Pages 25-45
Abstract
We study the volatility of business cycle of Iranian economy base on the wavelet approach. we found some synchronic business cycles with different power and frequencies (two to four years cycles, and trend that indicates the low frequency) which is contradictory to the traditional approach that highlights ...
Read More
We study the volatility of business cycle of Iranian economy base on the wavelet approach. we found some synchronic business cycles with different power and frequencies (two to four years cycles, and trend that indicates the low frequency) which is contradictory to the traditional approach that highlights classic definition of cycle (with three to eight years cycles).On the other hand, exception to 1971-1981, oil and non-oil cycles are approximately the same which means that the non-oil sector has been affected by the oil sector volatilities and neutralization of this affection by economic policies has been failed. The other point is that oil cycle has completely different asymmetry than the non-oil cycle. We also found that the energy of trend is sharply more than other elements of wavelet which indicates that the concealed long run volatilities is major part of the energy of economic time series. This finding is compatible with other related studies.
Mohammadreza Saadi
Volume 11, Issue 40 , April 2011, , Pages 49-69
Abstract
Abstract
The Economic integration is the most important phenomenon. Increasing of International trade is one of the most famous channels of economic integration. It is said that if this integration takes place, members may have a similar business ...
Read More
Abstract
The Economic integration is the most important phenomenon. Increasing of International trade is one of the most famous channels of economic integration. It is said that if this integration takes place, members may have a similar business cycles. In market oriented countries, the subject of business cycles has been attracted more attentions. The uprising trend of living standards followed by high unemployement, slower growth rate and then decreasing in living standards. However, with regard to the importance of the subject, we investigate, the similarity of business cycles among Iran, Turkey and Pakistan’s economies. Using Leamer approach and gravity model framework, our results show that there is a weak similarity among these countries
