Shahryar Zaroki; Sahar Nasrnejad Nesheli; Niloufar Gorgani Firoozjah
Abstract
In any society, the focus of statesmen, policymakers, and researchers on poverty reduction and enhancing economic welfare is necessary. Given that most government economic policies affect relative prices and their fluctuations, which in turn impact welfare, analyzing the welfare effects caused ...
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In any society, the focus of statesmen, policymakers, and researchers on poverty reduction and enhancing economic welfare is necessary. Given that most government economic policies affect relative prices and their fluctuations, which in turn impact welfare, analyzing the welfare effects caused by price changes in different product groups seems necessary The aim of this study is to investigate the role of inflation of different commodity groups on Iran's economic welfare from 1972 to 2021. The research model is estimated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Economic welfare is measured using a composite index of well-being. The trend of the well-being index fluctuated during the study period reaching its peak in 1975 and its minimum in 1990. The long-term results of the estimation of the research model reveal several key findings:
First, total inflation and inflation of different groups of goods have an unfavorable effect on economic well-being.
Second, among different product groups, inflation in the housing, fuel, and lighting group has the most adverse effect on economic welfare.
Third, considering that the share and weight of the group of food, beverages and tobacco in the consumption basket of households is larger than other groups of goods, but the size of the effect of inflation of this group of goods on economic welfare is in the fourth place. Fourth, the increase in the inflation of the health and treatment group has the least adverse effect on economic welfare. Another finding is that per capita income and economic growth have a favorable effect on economic welfare. According to the obtained results, the government should take measures such as adopting appropriate measures in line with monetary discipline and preventing the irrational increase of monetary variables in accordance with inflation targeting to control inflation in order to improve welfare.
Introduction
The provision of economic welfare across different segments of society is a key concern for politicians in the country. Article 43 of the Constitution aims to ensure the independence of society, eradicate poverty and deprivation, and fulfill the basic needs of individuals as they progress, including housing, food, clothing, health, education, and the necessary facilities for family formation, along with providing working conditions and opportunities for full employment. To attain a comprehensive understanding of welfare and how to measure it, it is crucial to clarify the concept itself. Identifying the impact of various sectors such as housing, education, nutrition, health, and treatment on changes in welfare is essential. This allows for prioritizing efforts in each of these fields to enhance societal welfare, growth, and development. Monroe asserts that the primary objective of a society is to allocate resources among its members to maximize their welfare. Achieving this goal involves allocating resources in a manner that generates the highest overall income for society. In a free market economy, this allocation is typically accomplished through prices, which play a crucial role in determining changes in household welfare. Inflation and its fluctuations should be recognized as significant factors affecting welfare. Understanding the relationship between inflation and welfare enables policymakers to implement effective measures to mitigate its adverse effects and promote overall societal well-being.
Method
The Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB) serves as a comprehensive and inclusive measure utilized in the current research to assess economic welfare. This index encompasses various dimensions that contribute to overall well-being, including:effective per capita consumption flow, net social accumulation of reserves and wealth-generating resources, economic inequality and economic insecurity. Each dimension is assigned weights in a specific manner, reflecting their relative importance. Consequently, the weights allocated to each dimension may vary across different observations. (Ozberg and Sharp, 2009). The general form of this index is as follows:
The value of the economic welfare index is measured by four components, which are consumption flow (CF), productive asset balance (WS), individual income distribution (ID), and economic security level (ES) (Bakhtiari et al., 2013). In this research, the base year of 2015 was used to validate the variables.
In the following, in order to investigate the effect of inflation of the total basket and different groups of goods on economic well-being, the autoregressive approach with distribution breaks (ARDL) has been used. First, the research model is specified with the aim of explaining the effect of inflation in the total basket of goods and services on economic welfare. Then, with the aim of analyzing the effect of inflation in different commodity groups, the research model will be presented. So in these two specifications of the IEWB research model, economic welfare is expressed as a dependent variable, which is calculated with the combined index of welfare. Inf inflation of the entire basket of goods and services, inflation for each of the 7 product groups [including 1. Health and treatment group (Health), 2. Clothing and footwear group (Cloth), 3. Furniture, accessories and Services used at home (Furniture), 4. Food, beverages and tobacco group (Food), 5. Recreation, education, hotel and restaurant group (ECERH), 6. Transportation and communication group (Transport) 7. Housing, fuel and lighting group, RGDPPC per capita real GDP, EG is economic growth.
Based on the above model, it is possible to test the effect of inflation in the mentioned 7 groups on the welfare of Iran's economy in the short ـ term and long ـ term situation.
Result and Discussion
In the material dimension of welfare, people should have a balanced life that includes employment and sufficient income to meet their basic needs. However, in many societies, includingIran, inflation and the instability of real purchasing power often pose challenges to people's ability to maintain material welfare. This can directly impact household consumption patterns and overall economic welfare. Therefore, understanding the effects of inflation on economic welfare is crucial. Considering the necessity of explaining the effect of inflation on economic welfare in Iran, in the present study, an attempt was made to analyze the effect of inflation of total goods and services and inflation of different groups of goods on economic welfare. For this purpose, while calculating the economic welfare with the composite index of welfare in the period of 1973 ـ 2022, the research model was estimated with the autoregression approach with distribution breaks. Our findings reveal a fluctuating trend in Iran's economic welfare during the study period. Following an initial increasing trend, economic welfare experienced a decreasing trend from 1976 until the end of the war. It increased again after the war, but decreased again in the post ـ war period.
The maximum value of the welfare index with the value of 69.6 belongs to the year 1354 and the lowest value of the welfare index with the value of 1.16 belongs to the year 1991. The results of the model estimation in 8 different estimations indicate the existence of a negative effect of inflation (total and basket of goods) on economic welfare. Based on this, the comparative results in the long term indicate that firstly, the inflation of all goods and services and the inflation of different commodity groups have an adverse effect on welfare. Second, among the 7 product groups, the inflation of the housing, fuel, and lighting group has had the most adverse effect on economic welfare. Also, due to the fact that the share and weight of the group of food, beverages, and tobacco in the consumption basket of households is larger than other groups, but the size of the inflation effect of this group of goods on welfare is in the fourth place. The increase in the inflation of the health and treatment group has the least adverse effect on economic welfare. Per capita income and economic growth also have a favorable effect on welfare, as expected.
Mahdi Yazdani; Raana Shokouei Donighi
Abstract
Macroeconomic instability is an important obstacle to the real growth of the economy and its sustainability. In this article, two methods have been used to investigate the impact of transparency on macroeconomic stability in emerging economies using simultaneous equations with panel data for the ...
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Macroeconomic instability is an important obstacle to the real growth of the economy and its sustainability. In this article, two methods have been used to investigate the impact of transparency on macroeconomic stability in emerging economies using simultaneous equations with panel data for the period 1998-2014. In the first method, two equations for central bank transparency and stability have been considered and the mutual effect of these two variables has been investigated. In the second method, three equations for the variables of stability, including inflation, production gap and real exchange rate gap, and one equation to measure the effect of these variables on transparency are used simultaneously. The results of the study show that the transparency of the central bank is one of the factors affecting the stability of the macroeconomics. Also, the square of the central bank's transparency variable has a negative and significant relationship with macroeconomic stability. Meanwhile, the transparency of the central bank has an inverse relationship with inflation and the real exchange rate gap, and there is a two-way relationship between the transparency of the central bank and inflation. Finally, the effect of central bank transparency on production gap and vice versa is not significant.
soheila parvin; mahnoosh abdollah milani; Vahid Rezaei
Abstract
Supportive policies that lead to significant relative price changes have widespread impact on income distribution that cannot be considered by adjusting expenditures with the consumer price index. While households have different consumption patterns in different income deciles, the Consumer Price Index ...
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Supportive policies that lead to significant relative price changes have widespread impact on income distribution that cannot be considered by adjusting expenditures with the consumer price index. While households have different consumption patterns in different income deciles, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in prices based on the pattern of consumption in the average-income households. To overcome the issue, this paper examines the impact of relative price changes on distribution of real income (real expenditure) based on the HSPI Index, which is calculated using the weights of goods in each household’s basket. The period under study is 2007-2015. To measure inequality, the Gini coefficient is used based on Ogwang method. The results show that in periods that price of foods increase more than other categories, income inequality is the more when calculated, respectively, based on Household Specific Price Index (HSPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) than Gini coefficient based on nominal expenditures. Because of higher share of foods in consumption basket of low-income households, higher relative price of this category leads to worsening of income distribution and loss of welfare for low-income class.
Majid Babaie; Hossein Tavakolian; abbas shakeri
Abstract
First studies in inflation forecasting were mostly based on traditional Philips curve in which the relation between inflation and unemployment is studied. However, after several decades and especially after the Lucas criticism, Philips curve faced great takeovers. The new Philips curve ties real and ...
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First studies in inflation forecasting were mostly based on traditional Philips curve in which the relation between inflation and unemployment is studied. However, after several decades and especially after the Lucas criticism, Philips curve faced great takeovers. The new Philips curve ties real and expected inflation, not to unemployment rate but to a scale of the marginal cost. Since in the original form of Philips curve, marginal cost stimulates inflation, it is difficult to formulate models that are effective in predicting inflation. Therefore, using TVP-DMA model, which has the ability to fix these deficiencies, we try to improve predictability of inflation in Iranian economy. An independent variable in conventional models can be either significant or insignificant while in TVP-DMA model, it may be significant during a period of time and insignificant in rest of the times. Therefore, this approach lets us to determine the periods in which an independent variable is significant and when it is not. In this study, we use seasonal data during the period 1991-2015. The results based on outputs of the TVP, DMS, and DMA models show that, out of 100 time periods under study, the liquidity growth rate in 19, economic growth rate in 7, unemployment in 8, exchange rate growth in 31, changes in the bank deposit rate in 14, oil revenues growth rate in 15, inflation uncertainty in 14 and the budget deficit growth rate in 4 periods have significant effect on inflation. Based on these results, it can be stated that exchange rate growth, liquidity growth and oil revenues growth rate are the most important indicators influencing inflation rate in Iran.
Ramin Khochiani; Younes Nademi
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inflation and output gap by using wavelet coherence approach. This approach attempts to combine the classical time series analysis with frequency domain analysis, and presents the advantages of assessing the co-movement of two series in ...
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The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inflation and output gap by using wavelet coherence approach. This approach attempts to combine the classical time series analysis with frequency domain analysis, and presents the advantages of assessing the co-movement of two series in the context of both time and frequency dimentions. Using continuous wavelet transform approach, the relationship between inflation and output gap, by considering GDP with oil sector and without oil sector, was studied by annual and quarterly data from 1959 to 2016 in Iran. The results showed that in the long run, the relashionship between inflation and output gap is positive. This result confirms existence of a Phillips curve with negative slope in the long run. However, the relationship between the two variables in the short term and also for the period before Islamic Revolution reflects a Phillips curve with positive slope. Friedman noted this type of curve for high inflation economies for a period of several years in 1977 in his Nobel Prize lecture. This result could have been very important in testing Phillips curve theory in Iranian economy.
Morteza Khorsandi; Nastaran Alibabaie
Abstract
Since the unemployment and inflation are two target variables of economic policies and in many cases policy-makers have to sacrifice one for another, the question arises that what is the preferences of society between these two targets. The appropriate answer can be obtained when the effect of each variable ...
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Since the unemployment and inflation are two target variables of economic policies and in many cases policy-makers have to sacrifice one for another, the question arises that what is the preferences of society between these two targets. The appropriate answer can be obtained when the effect of each variable on welfare is estimated and compared with each other. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of unemployment and inflation on happiness as an index of welfare is estimated. This estimation is done with two panel data samples. The first sample consist of 146 countries that happiness index is calculated for them and the second sample only includes Iran and its neighbors. The results show that in both cases unemployment has more effect on reducing happiness. In the sample of Iran and its neighboring countries, the absolute value of unemployment coefficient is 2.4 times higher than that of inflation. Accordingly, it can be concluded that in construction of social loss functions and also misery indices the weight of unemployment must be greater than inflation and the proposed relative weight for Iran is 2.4.
Mostafa Sharif; Seyed Mohammadreza Javan
Abstract
Many studies have been done about inflation in all developed and developing countries and they have tried to analyze and assess the factors affecting inflation. However, few studies have been done on the causality of inflation. In this study, we have tried to use time series methods to identify different ...
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Many studies have been done about inflation in all developed and developing countries and they have tried to analyze and assess the factors affecting inflation. However, few studies have been done on the causality of inflation. In this study, we have tried to use time series methods to identify different variables that have the greatest impact on inflation in Iran. The purpose of this paper is to find causal relationships between the imports of consumption, intermediate and capital goods in one hand and inflation on the other hand during the period 1980-2010 in Iranian economy. In this study, we have tried to identify different variables that their time series have the greatest impact on inflation in Iran, Therefore, in this study we have considered the different variables of the consumer price index (inflation rate), liquidity, per capita GNP, free market exchange rate, the adjusted ratio of budget deficit to GDP (BD, GDP), as well as imports of capital, consumption and intermediate goods. In this study, VAR model, error correction model and Granger causality test are used and the resultd confirm one-way and two-way relationship between inflation and and different types of imports.
Mohsen Khezri; Bahram Sahabi; Kazem Yavari; Hassan Heydari
Volume 15, Issue 57 , July 2015, , Pages 193-228
Abstract
Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem ...
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Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is one of these results. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of determinants of inflation in Iranian economy and forecasting inflation, instead of using FAVAR model with constant coefficients, we have employed TVP-FAVAR models and inflation has been modeled. In this model, the variables of GDP growth, growth of the monetary base, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates are considered as the main variables, and to estimate the non-observable variables of speculation section return, variables in the overall classification are modeled. Based on the results, the relationship between the variables change over time and conditions prevailing in the economy is effective on the influence of model variables on each other.
Hossein Abbasinejad; Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani
Volume 14, Issue 52 , April 2014, , Pages 26-1
Abstract
Abstract The study of the effect of memory in different economic indices, especially inflation and money market, has high research attractiveness. In this paper, by using the data of consumer price index for Iran during 1990/04 – 2011/11, we investigate the characteristics of CPI’s long–run ...
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Abstract The study of the effect of memory in different economic indices, especially inflation and money market, has high research attractiveness. In this paper, by using the data of consumer price index for Iran during 1990/04 – 2011/11, we investigate the characteristics of CPI’s long–run memory and regress its ARFIMA model. In addition, the amount of error terms in ARFIMA model are examined by FIGARCH model in order to determine what model the heteroscedasticity in inflation is following. The results indicate that monthly time series of inflation may have non-integer root. In other words, the degree of integration for inflation can be a non-integer number rather than an integer. To determine this, an Augmented Dikey-Fuller test, Philips–Prone test and KPSS are used and the results show that the degree of integration for inflation series should lie between zero and one. Thus, the hypothesis of inflation series with memory is proposed. By estimating the parameter of long run memory in the model it becomes evident that the inflation series has the degree of integration of 0.46 and one time differentiating leads to over-differentiation. Hence, inflation series has a long run memory in Iran and the effects of each shock on this variable exists for long periods.
Reza Akbarian; Mohamad Karkon
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 79-107
Abstract
Based on the debates on the impacts of globalization on government size, efficiency hypothesis and compensation hypothesis are two measure of globalization. The compensation hypothesis predicts that governments perform a risk-mitigating role against internationally generated risk and economic dislocations. ...
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Based on the debates on the impacts of globalization on government size, efficiency hypothesis and compensation hypothesis are two measure of globalization. The compensation hypothesis predicts that governments perform a risk-mitigating role against internationally generated risk and economic dislocations. Under efficiency hypothesis, governments compete to attract capital, and this competition will result in decreasing government presence in economy. In this paper we try to investigate the reason of government enlargement in Iran. We use trade openness (as globalization index), real income per capita, inflation, population, oil income and government size (based on government expenditure) and consumption expenditure in the form of percentage of GDP. An Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model) is developed for this study based on Bounds Testing (Pesaran, et.al, 2001). The result of this model shows that in the long run trade openness has no effect on government size but there is a significant relation between them in short run. Furthermore, the relation between globalization and social welfare and security shows that these expenditures didn’t compensate the effect of shock resulted from trade openness. In this way, the oil income has created a great income reserves for government which make government enlarge more.
Hossein Tavakolian; Asghar Shahmoradi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 51-70
Abstract
In the mainstream economic view, in low levels of inflation there is a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth, and this relationship changes to a negative one at high levels of inflation. This study examines the probability of occurring these two regimes, using Markov Switching Approach ...
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In the mainstream economic view, in low levels of inflation there is a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth, and this relationship changes to a negative one at high levels of inflation. This study examines the probability of occurring these two regimes, using Markov Switching Approach (MSA). The results show that there has been a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth only in 3 periods (1989-93 and two other short periods, 2002-03 and 2006), while in most of the time, inflation in Iran negatively affected the economic growth. The average duration of high inflation periods has been about 4 years, while the average duration of low inflation periods has been about 2 years.
Akbar Komeyjani; Mohammad Hadi Sobhaniani; Saeid Bayat
Volume 12, Issue 45 , July 2012, , Pages 201-226
Abstract
Because of much dependence to oil revenues, Oil price fluctuations have much affect on Iranian economy. Since government possess a great deal of oil revenues and those financial government expenditure, then identifying manner and stringency of affecting shocks arise from oil revenue growth on inflation ...
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Because of much dependence to oil revenues, Oil price fluctuations have much affect on Iranian economy. Since government possess a great deal of oil revenues and those financial government expenditure, then identifying manner and stringency of affecting shocks arise from oil revenue growth on inflation is very important. Subject of this paper is “Asymmetric effects of oil revenue growth on inflation in Iranian economy applying VECM method”. Our results indicate that both positive and negative shocks arise from oil revenue growth are inflationary.
Reza i Moosavi Mohsen; Haideh Norouzi
Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 39-64
Abstract
This paper investigates the inflation tax. Laffer Curve surfaces of inflation tax have
been estimated in Iran, using time series data for the period 1961-2006. Considering the high
inflation ratio of iran during the last three decades, it is hypothesized that iran operates in
fourth region of the ...
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This paper investigates the inflation tax. Laffer Curve surfaces of inflation tax have
been estimated in Iran, using time series data for the period 1961-2006. Considering the high
inflation ratio of iran during the last three decades, it is hypothesized that iran operates in
fourth region of the Laffer curve surface. In this research, Cagan!s money demand function
is used. Also, we consider an explicit role for the reserve ratio and it introduced inflation and
required reserve ratio as locus of instruments which maximize the inflation tax. Results of
this survey show that Iran operates in right side of the Laffer curve surfaces (region I) and
inflation tax maximize at the highest inflation rate.
reza tehani; Shapur Mohammadi; Arash Mohamadalizadeh
Volume 11, Issue 41 , July 2011, , Pages 225-244
Abstract
This paper presents a new perspective on the Fisher hypothesis, which states a positiverelationship between nominal stock returns and inflation. The new approach is based on a waveletmultiscaling method that decomposes a given time series on a scale-by-scale basis. The time series of inflation and stock ...
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This paper presents a new perspective on the Fisher hypothesis, which states a positiverelationship between nominal stock returns and inflation. The new approach is based on a waveletmultiscaling method that decomposes a given time series on a scale-by-scale basis. The time series of inflation and stock return are decomposed into three wavelet details and one wavelet smooth. Empirical results show that there is a positive relationship between stock returns and inflation at 2month period and at 8-month period, while a negative relationship is shown 4-month period. Also,no significant relationship was revealed in one month time horizon. This indicates that the nominal return results are supportive of the Fisher hypothesis for risky Assets in d2 and s3 of the wavelet domain, while the stock returns do not play a role as an inflation hedge at one month and four month timescales.
