Afife Vosoughi
Abstract
In recent years many indices have been developed to measure the vulnerability and resilience of economies to external shocks. The development of composite indicators to quantify these concepts has received particular attention in economic literature. This study aims to investigate the impact of economic ...
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In recent years many indices have been developed to measure the vulnerability and resilience of economies to external shocks. The development of composite indicators to quantify these concepts has received particular attention in economic literature. This study aims to investigate the impact of economic vulnerability and resilience on volatilities of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) per capita in 106 countries by using panel data during period 2000-2014. To conduct this study, economic vulnerability and resilience indices have been constructed using Briguglio method. We also use Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate GDP per capita volatilities. The results of this research indicate that: first, economic vulnerability has a significant positive effect on volatilities of GDP per capita. Second; economic resilience has a significant negative impact on volatilities of GDP per capita. Third, Iran has low resilience and high vulnerability because of high export concentration, inappropriate macroeconomic conditions and weakness of good governance.
Jaber Abdi; Mohammd Taghi Gilak Hakim Abadi
Abstract
Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this ...
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Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this study is to introduce and explain the theoretical basis of the economic vulnerability index to reach a suitable structure for evaluating this index in Iran and other middle-income countries. The results of this study show that the situation of Iran in terms of this indicator among the 8 countries surveyed in the period between 1995 and 2012 was not satisfactory, in a way that the rank of Iran in most of this period (13 years) was higher than the average 8 countries. Also, the trend of this indicator is positive and rising for Iran in this period. Analysis of Economic factors affecting vulnerability show that in this period, weakness of export diversification was the most important item that negatively affected the level of economic vulnerability in Iran in comparison with other selected countries.
