abbas shakeri; Javid Bahrami; Hamidreza Derakhshan
Abstract
This study aims to introduce the microstructure approach to the exchange rate as the 4th generation of exchange rate models and to apply it in a simulation model to study the effects of transparency of macroeconomic data on exchange rate fluctuations. The microstructure approach to the exchange rate ...
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This study aims to introduce the microstructure approach to the exchange rate as the 4th generation of exchange rate models and to apply it in a simulation model to study the effects of transparency of macroeconomic data on exchange rate fluctuations. The microstructure approach to the exchange rate is developed to include decentralized and multi-layer structure of currency markets along with information complexities in this market and the role of trading mechanisms in exchange rate determination. After introducing this approach, we have developed our theoretical model to use it for simulation. In this simulation, we have studied the effects of transparency of macro data release on exchange rate fluctuation. To achieve this goal, we have used two variables of “delay in macro data release” and “error in macro data release”. Our simulation results show that an increase in macro data release delay leads to higher volatility of The exchange rate. This is because of increasing uncertainty for economic agents. In addition, an increase in macro data release delay leads to a farther delay in responsiveness of the exchange rate to movements in its macro fundamental variables. Although we have found a non-linear relationship between the “error in macro data release” variable and exchange rate volatility, the magnitude of this effect is less than the effect of the “delay in macro data release” variable on exchange rate volatility. Based on our results, we recommend that to have lower exchange rate volatility, authorities should increase the transparency of macroeconomic data releases and especially they should lower the delay in macro data releases.
fatemeh abdolshah; Saeed Moshiri
Abstract
Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio ...
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Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio approach model developed by Wilson (1997) and analyze the impacts of various macroeconomic shocks on default rates of banks. In the constructed model, we first estimate the effects of macroeconomics variables on default rate. Then the dynamic relationship between selected macroeconomics variables is estimated by a VAR model. Residuals obtained in the two previous steps were used to construct the covariance matrix for system of equations. Finally, using the Monte-Carlo method, a path of default probabilities is simulated in a one-year horizon under different scenarios. We compare default rates under different stress scenarios with baseline scenario to identify the effects of different shocks. The results of simulation show that unemployment rate shock has been the most harmful factor for default probabilities, followed by exchange rates shock. A shock to GDP growth also affects default rates significantly. Inflation shock generates the least important effect on default rates, consistent with the insignificant coefficient of inflation rate in the estimated default probability equation. A simultaneous shock to all macroeconomic variables has higher impact on the default rates in lower tails than upper tails. The results also show the effects of shocks decrease with the passage of time.
Ali Nasiri Aghdam; Ashraf Razmi
Volume 15, Issue 58 , October 2015, , Pages 61-82
Abstract
In this paper, to evaluate income and distributional effects of Personal Income Tax, a hypothetical society is simulated. 12 income sources are defined that each member of society can earn income from one income source or more. Then, using FORTRAN programming, the government's tax income, income distribution ...
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In this paper, to evaluate income and distributional effects of Personal Income Tax, a hypothetical society is simulated. 12 income sources are defined that each member of society can earn income from one income source or more. Then, using FORTRAN programming, the government's tax income, income distribution and average tax rate are calculated, assuming five alternative Scenarios: 0. Base scenario: taxing personal income at source according to "Direct Income Taxes Act"; 1. taxing the sum of incomes each individual person earns from different businesses he or she owns and exempt his / her business income once; 2. taxing the sum of incomes each person earns from non-exempt sources and exempt his / her business income once; 3. taxing the sum of incomes each person earns from exempt and non-exempt sources and exempt his / her business income once; 4. qualifying third scenario by accepting a 1 billion Rials as exemption. Results of simulation indicate that the government's income and income equality is maximized in 3rd scenario.
