abbas shakeri; teymour mohammadi; Mohammad Jafari
Abstract
The significance of oil market and its impact on economic growth in oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries has led to examination of factors affecting it in different studies. Financial market and its components have penetrated in traditional oil market and this has resulted in creation of exchanges ...
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The significance of oil market and its impact on economic growth in oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries has led to examination of factors affecting it in different studies. Financial market and its components have penetrated in traditional oil market and this has resulted in creation of exchanges to trade oil-related securities. Therefore, the importance of financial markets has emerged not as an exogenous variable but as an endogenous variable within the oil market. Scientific results of the research demonstrate that the long-term impact of futures markets on the oil market is definite, however during the crises, due to the concerns about complicated crisis conditions, the effective time horizon becomes short-term, and consequently it is the spot market that influences future variables. Therefore, it is suggested that, in order to prevent the impact of global financial crises on the state’s budget, we have to monitor the financial markets and also participate in oil futures market which has the advantage of generating risk coverage and ensuring the country’s budget to become secure against price fluctuations of international markets. Finally, by undertaking a wise strategy of speculation, we can take advantage of potential opportunities, if supported by domestic financial institutions and Ministry of Petroleum and, therefore, earn the country tremendous revenues.
Leila Torki; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Mehdi Yazdani; Elham Fathi
Volume 14, Issue 53 , July 2014, , Pages 167-196
Abstract
An appropriate solution to resolve trade deficit is national currency devaluation. This policy is, at least in the long term, useful. It is based on the logic that any devaluation of national currency in the form of market mechanism reduces the trade deficit. On the other hand the trade balance of countries ...
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An appropriate solution to resolve trade deficit is national currency devaluation. This policy is, at least in the long term, useful. It is based on the logic that any devaluation of national currency in the form of market mechanism reduces the trade deficit. On the other hand the trade balance of countries are affected by several factors including the international financial conditions that change the volume of international transactions and in this way affect the economy as a whole and trade balance in particular. The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting trade balance between Iran and her ten trading partners with considerations of the financial crisis index as a symbol of the international financial conditions. For this purpose, a time series is specified and then estimated by ARDL and error correction model (ECM) for the period of 1981-2009. Also the effects of the financial crisis on trade balance using Impulse Response Functions are considered. The results show that J curve is only confirmed for the bilateral trade of Iran with China and Italy and for the other countries, with consideration of the financial crisis, this hypothesis is rejected. It should be noted that all coefficients are stable with respect to the CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests.
