Hassan Dargahi; Mehdi Hadian
Abstract
Designing a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in this paper, we evaluate the impacts of monetary shocks originated from monetary base and monetary multiplier on fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Iranian economy. Due to importance of financial sector in transmition of ...
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Designing a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, in this paper, we evaluate the impacts of monetary shocks originated from monetary base and monetary multiplier on fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Iranian economy. Due to importance of financial sector in transmition of economic policies effects, banking system and its current status such as fixed asset accumulation and NPLs has been added to the baseline model. Calibration of parameters of model according to quarterly data of Iranian economy during period 1990-2014 shows that the model fits the data quite satisfactorily. We find that a negative shock to reserve requirement results in slight output growth and inflation while a positive shock to banks’ borrowing from central bank results in output decline and higher inflation. In other words, for the same amount of liquidity growth, increasing of liquidity from a change in monetary multiplier, in contrast to change in monetary base, results in lower inflation and stimulating output. Therefore, it has been suggested that monetary authority should control the amount of borrowings made by banks and, instead, decreases their reserve requirement ratio as an incentive tool. This approach will encourage banks to adhere to their credit line limits and avoid overdrafts which result in higher level of stability in macroeconomic variables through monetary discipline.
Esmaeil Mirza’i; Teymour Mohammadi; Abbas Shakeri
Abstract
In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some ...
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In this paper we assess the interaction between different macroeconomic variables and the quality of loan portfolio of banks in Iran by using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) method that controls for bank-level characteristics. For this purpose, we use a quarterly panel data of banks and some of the most important macroeconomic variables over the period 2002-2013. Variables of this research are the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans as the index for quality of loan portfolio of banks, GDP growth, real lending interest rate, monetary base and growth rate of banks’ loan. We find that a positive shock to real lending interest rate and loan growth rate improve the quality of loan portfolio of banks. However, printing more money by central bank (a positive shock to monetary base) leads to a drop in portfolio quality, while a positive shock to GDP growth rate doesn’t have a significant effect on NPLs. On the other hand, the feedback effect from NPLs on macroeconomic variables is verified, as a positive shock to NPLs (worsening the quality of loan portfolio) causes to exacerbate economic recession, to increase monetary base, and to decrease loan growth rate significantly, but it doesn’t have any significant effect on real lending interest rate .
Saeed Moshiri; Mohammad Nadali
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 1-27
Abstract
The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index ...
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The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index shows that the banking system has experienced crisis in various times. In this paper, we use the banking crisis data derived by Moshiri and Nadali (2010) to estimate the determinants of the banking crisis in Iran, using a Logit model for the period 1971-2008. The estimation results show that inflation, short term interest rate, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP are the main factors affecting banking crisis in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that the relationship between inflation rate and the banking crisis is U shape. The exchange rate does not have a significant effect on the banking crisis as the Iranian banking system is not heavily involved in the international financial markets and is not strongly connected to the international banking system.
