Seyed Saleh Akbar Mousavi; Behzad Salmani
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine banking crisis dates in four different groups of countries and also to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses in the year of the banking crisis and three years later, over the period 1980-2019. In the first step, we used the money market pressure ...
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The purpose of this study is to determine banking crisis dates in four different groups of countries and also to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses in the year of the banking crisis and three years later, over the period 1980-2019. In the first step, we used the money market pressure index approach to determine the date of the banking crisis. In the second step, we used the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract different trends from countries' GDPs to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses, three of which are based on the loss in GDP with respect to its trend and the fourth measure is the loss in the trend itself. We also graphically analyzed the number of banking crises in different groups of countries and output losses following crises. In this study, 122 banking crises were identified in four groups of countries. The results of graph analysis of the crises showed that the highest number of banking crises (14 crises) occurred in 2008. Also, about 22 Percentage of the total banking crises (28 crises) occurred in the period 2008-2012, in which the share of high-income countries was higher than other country groups. Then, four alternative measures of real output losses following the banking crisis, the statistics related to the maximum and minimum losses, and graphical analysis were presented.
Saeed Moshiri; Mohammad Nadali
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 1-27
Abstract
The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index ...
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The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index shows that the banking system has experienced crisis in various times. In this paper, we use the banking crisis data derived by Moshiri and Nadali (2010) to estimate the determinants of the banking crisis in Iran, using a Logit model for the period 1971-2008. The estimation results show that inflation, short term interest rate, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP are the main factors affecting banking crisis in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that the relationship between inflation rate and the banking crisis is U shape. The exchange rate does not have a significant effect on the banking crisis as the Iranian banking system is not heavily involved in the international financial markets and is not strongly connected to the international banking system.