Mahdi Yazdani; Raana Shokouei Donighi
Abstract
Macroeconomic instability is an important obstacle to the real growth of the economy and its sustainability. In this article, two methods have been used to investigate the impact of transparency on macroeconomic stability in emerging economies using simultaneous equations with panel data for the ...
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Macroeconomic instability is an important obstacle to the real growth of the economy and its sustainability. In this article, two methods have been used to investigate the impact of transparency on macroeconomic stability in emerging economies using simultaneous equations with panel data for the period 1998-2014. In the first method, two equations for central bank transparency and stability have been considered and the mutual effect of these two variables has been investigated. In the second method, three equations for the variables of stability, including inflation, production gap and real exchange rate gap, and one equation to measure the effect of these variables on transparency are used simultaneously. The results of the study show that the transparency of the central bank is one of the factors affecting the stability of the macroeconomics. Also, the square of the central bank's transparency variable has a negative and significant relationship with macroeconomic stability. Meanwhile, the transparency of the central bank has an inverse relationship with inflation and the real exchange rate gap, and there is a two-way relationship between the transparency of the central bank and inflation. Finally, the effect of central bank transparency on production gap and vice versa is not significant.
Ramin Khochiani; Younes Nademi
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inflation and output gap by using wavelet coherence approach. This approach attempts to combine the classical time series analysis with frequency domain analysis, and presents the advantages of assessing the co-movement of two series in ...
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The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inflation and output gap by using wavelet coherence approach. This approach attempts to combine the classical time series analysis with frequency domain analysis, and presents the advantages of assessing the co-movement of two series in the context of both time and frequency dimentions. Using continuous wavelet transform approach, the relationship between inflation and output gap, by considering GDP with oil sector and without oil sector, was studied by annual and quarterly data from 1959 to 2016 in Iran. The results showed that in the long run, the relashionship between inflation and output gap is positive. This result confirms existence of a Phillips curve with negative slope in the long run. However, the relationship between the two variables in the short term and also for the period before Islamic Revolution reflects a Phillips curve with positive slope. Friedman noted this type of curve for high inflation economies for a period of several years in 1977 in his Nobel Prize lecture. This result could have been very important in testing Phillips curve theory in Iranian economy.
