Masood Nonejad; Mahdi Roshan Ghiyas
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 183-200
Abstract
Terms of trade is one of the important and effective variables in the economy of all countries, and especially in the developing countries. Terms of trade shows the purchasing power of exports of a country. Therefore, the study of terms of trade and its volatility is very important in the economy of ...
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Terms of trade is one of the important and effective variables in the economy of all countries, and especially in the developing countries. Terms of trade shows the purchasing power of exports of a country. Therefore, the study of terms of trade and its volatility is very important in the economy of a country. In this study, by using the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the data for years of 1975-2009, the effect of terms of trade, its volatility and components on the economic growth of Iran has been estimated. The volatility of terms of trade has been estimated using the method of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. The results of this study show that the effect of terms of trade on economic growth in Iran is positive and significant, but its volatility has negative and significant effect. Also, the results show that export real price index has positive and significant effect, but import real price index and export real price index volatility have negative and significant effect on the economic growth in Iran.
Mohsen Mehrara; Elham Sehati
Volume 11, Issue 43 , January 2012, , Pages 1-21
Abstract
In this paper we empirically investigate the link between bank lending
behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. This relationship is
examined using conditional variance model based on monthly data for
a panel of Iranian banks during the period 1383-1388. The results
indicate that the uncertainty based ...
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In this paper we empirically investigate the link between bank lending
behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. This relationship is
examined using conditional variance model based on monthly data for
a panel of Iranian banks during the period 1383-1388. The results
indicate that the uncertainty based on CPI and PPI indicators,
implying uncertainty in macroeconomics, has a negative significant
effect on bank lending behavior. In other words, banks decrease their
lending ratios when macroeconomic uncertainty increases,
becomming more conservative. The increase of uncertainty leads to
credit risk of banks and the probability of losses due to unsafe loans
and decrease in credits volume and the loans to the private sector.
