Economics Research

Abstract Nowadays, besides of other factors affecting macroeconomic instability, the chronic trade account deficit has a crucial role in this instability. It is clear that the trade account deficit can be risen from instability of goods and services exports. Therefore, in this research, along with investigating the concept of non-oil export instability, we’re going to study the most important factors shaping this phenomenon during the period of 1971-2008. To do this, we have chosen the best index for measuring export instability and also other indices for measuring commodity and geographical concentration. Then, by using Bound test method, suggested by Pesaran(2001), we have investigated  the long run relationship among the variables. In the next stage, the Variance decomposition method, suggested by Liu and Xin(2008), has been employed to analyze the isolated effects of commodity and country groups on export instability. Our results show that commodity and geographic concentration along with oil and industrial exports have a significant effect on non-oil export instability. In fact, when considering geographical concentration, the largest instability comes from OPEC market.

Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the factors and policies that affect employment in  Iranian economy. To accomplish this purpose, ARDL dynamic model is applied to annual data during 1974-2007. By this method, the labor force demand in Iranian economy is estimated. The results show that in the short-run, employment can increase by using the banking facilities and stimulating production. It is shown that in the long-run, the most important  factor that can result in job creation  is investment and the reason is that investment leads to economic growth and in this paper, it can be the leading factor of job creation. The size of the coefficients corresponding to employment in previous periods indicate low flexibility of labor market In Iranian economy and it is required to use proper policies and solutions to increase labor market flexibility in Iranian economy.

Abstract