Esfandiar Jahangard; Jamal Kakaie
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic became widespread in most countries of the world in late 2019. In addition to human casualties, it has also affected the economies of countries. According to IMF, the world economic growth in 2020 was -3.5 percent. However, the GDP’s growth rate of the Iran economy for ...
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The COVID-19 pandemic became widespread in most countries of the world in late 2019. In addition to human casualties, it has also affected the economies of countries. According to IMF, the world economic growth in 2020 was -3.5 percent. However, the GDP’s growth rate of the Iran economy for 2020 has been positive and was reported as 1.5 percent, but there is evident that the economy has been affected by the coronavirus. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the production, employment, and value-added of the economy of Iran by using the hypothetical extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) and the Input-Output general equilibrium model of Zaytseva (2000). We have used the data from the input-output table of the Iran Central Bank in 2016 and the employment figures of the Statistics Center of Iran. The results show that the production and the value-added of the economy will decrease by 4.3 and 4 percent respectively. Among the value-added components, mixed-income and net operating surplus experienced the highest declining growth rate. Also, about 6.5 percent of the country's employees have been affected directly and indirectly by the Coronavirus.
Jamal Kakaie; Ali Faridzad; Farshad Momeni; Ali asghar banouei
Abstract
One of the essential indices for measuring sustainable development is ecological footprint. This paper which focuses on concept of ecological footprint of fossil fuels, tries to answer two important questions. The first question is wether the pattern of export and import of energy content in Iran confirms ...
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One of the essential indices for measuring sustainable development is ecological footprint. This paper which focuses on concept of ecological footprint of fossil fuels, tries to answer two important questions. The first question is wether the pattern of export and import of energy content in Iran confirms its comparative advantage? The second question is how much is the ecological footprint of Iranian economic sectors in year 2011? To measure ecological footprint of fossil fuels, we employ two different databases in this article, first activity by activity symmetric I-O table calculated by Iranian Statistical Center for year 2011 and second, Hydrocarbon Balance Sheet of year 2011. Our main results are presented based on two scenarios. In the first scenario, production technology is identical between Iran and other countries, and in the second scenario production technology isn’t the same. Our results based on two scenarios show that in macro level Iranian economy has trade surplus in fossil fuels content. But in sectoral level, 23 and 18 economic sectors have trade deficit in energy content based on first and second scenarios respectively. Ecological footprint based on our first scenario is more than 191 million hectares and the deficit per person is 2.3 hectare. In the second scenario the ecological footprint is 184 million hectares and the deficit per person is 2.2 hectares. Our conclusion is that because of low level of energy productivity in Iran, the results of second scenario are more realistic.
