Sahar Pournaghi Keikeleh; Kowsar Yousefi; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The Health Reform Plan was initiated in 2014 aiming to increase health utilization and to reduce the out-of-pocket payment. The plan was criticized for its inflationary effects and also its health induced demand. This study examines the induced demand hypothesis using the health datasets of the ...
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The Health Reform Plan was initiated in 2014 aiming to increase health utilization and to reduce the out-of-pocket payment. The plan was criticized for its inflationary effects and also its health induced demand. This study examines the induced demand hypothesis using the health datasets of the year 2008 (before the reform) and the year 2015 (after the reform). The data is collected every four years by the National Institute of Health Research. As the control group, we consider individuals who have accessed to medical knowledge among their family members and are less exposed to the asymmetric information; thus they can be considered as the control group for whom there is no induced demand. Individuals without medical knowledge are more likely to be exposed to induced demand by physicians, and are considered as the treatment group. We use Difference-in-Difference methodology. The robustness of results are tested using variety of subgroups and controlling for many observation. Results indicate that individuals without medical knowledge has an average of 10% more referrals compared to those who have medical knowledge. Also, their per capita cost has been increased by 54%, which is equivalent to extra 10650 tomans after the reform. Our results confirm that the reform has significantly induced demand.
Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The main objective of the study is to investigate the bubble migration between foreign exchange and housing markets in Iran using seasonal data of 1966-1396. In this regard, bubble dating is discovered by using of Phillips et al (2015) method; then, bubble migration from the foreign exchange market to ...
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The main objective of the study is to investigate the bubble migration between foreign exchange and housing markets in Iran using seasonal data of 1966-1396. In this regard, bubble dating is discovered by using of Phillips et al (2015) method; then, bubble migration from the foreign exchange market to the housing market and from the housing market to the foreign exchange market is examined, using the Gomez-Gonzales et al. (2016) method. The results show that there are 7 bubble periods in the foreign exchange market; and 7 bubble periods in the Housing market. four hypotheses were defined for examine the bubble migration, according to the bubble dates (from the foreign exchange to housing market and vice versa). The results of the hypothesis testes showed that the first house bubble (2007Q2-2008Q3) led to the creation of the first bubble of the foreign exchange market (2007Q4-2008Q3). It seems that in the currency restriction conditions, the probability of creating a foreign exchange bubble and its migration to the housing market is rather high and vice versa.
Ali Tayebnia; Mohsen Mehrara; Azadeh Akhtari
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is identifying speculative rational bubbles and applying early warning indices to illustrate these bubbles in USD/IRR informal exchange rate during volatile period of March 2011 to September 2018. The deviation of the exchange rate from fundamental values which is known as bubble ...
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The purpose of this paper is identifying speculative rational bubbles and applying early warning indices to illustrate these bubbles in USD/IRR informal exchange rate during volatile period of March 2011 to September 2018. The deviation of the exchange rate from fundamental values which is known as bubble may occur as a result of a speculative attack to the value of local currency which, if the authorities do not defend the value of the national currency, will lead to a currency crisis. Therefore, it is very important for policy-makers to correctly identify bubble periods to intervene timely in the foreign exchange market and to prevent deviation of exchange rate from its fundamental value. For this purpose, rational speculative bubbles modeling using Markov regime-switching model with time-varying probabilities including dormant, collapsing and explosive regimes with high ability in identifying the time of formation and collapsing of bubbles has been done. In our model, the sanction index and changes in foreign exchange reserves are early warning indicators. The sanction index is the cause of speculative demand in the informal foreign exchange market over the period covered by this study which, coupled with central bank interventions to reduce the pressure on the foreign exchange market, have been able to explain recent currency speculative bubbles. Our results confirm that rational speculative bubbles exist in USD/IRR informal exchange rate. Based on our results, time intervals identified as explosive regime are exactly contemporaneous with currency crisis periods. On the other hand, collapsing regimes tend to coincide with post-crisis periods. Dormant regimes identified in this study correspond to periods that the exchange rate return has a mild increasing trend. Comparing designed model to other specifications display sufficient robustness in the presented model.
Mohsen Mehr-Ara; Sajjad Barkhordari; Mohsen Behzadi Soufiani
Abstract
This paper examines the nonlinear relationship between inflation and government spending using quarterly data over the period of 1990-2013, by using Smooth Transition Regression model. Our results suggest a two regime model by using inflation, government expenditure growth, GDP growth and liquidity growth ...
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This paper examines the nonlinear relationship between inflation and government spending using quarterly data over the period of 1990-2013, by using Smooth Transition Regression model. Our results suggest a two regime model by using inflation, government expenditure growth, GDP growth and liquidity growth as variables of the model, and first lag of liquidity was recognized as transition variable. This study showed that in the regime of tight money or low growth of liquidity, government expenditure is not inflationary. In regime of low liquidity growth, this variable has low inflationary impact and probably stimulates economic growth. Inflationary expectations in this regime are more effective in causing short run inflation. In expansionary regime (high liquidity growth), the increase in money supply has more effects on inflation rather than production. So monetary and fiscal policies could be used to control inflation and stimulate aggregate demand in low regime. Also in easy money regime, monetary and fiscal discipline can be useful for inflation decrease
Mohsen Mehrara; Elham Sehati
Volume 11, Issue 43 , January 2012, , Pages 1-21
Abstract
In this paper we empirically investigate the link between bank lending
behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. This relationship is
examined using conditional variance model based on monthly data for
a panel of Iranian banks during the period 1383-1388. The results
indicate that the uncertainty based ...
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In this paper we empirically investigate the link between bank lending
behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. This relationship is
examined using conditional variance model based on monthly data for
a panel of Iranian banks during the period 1383-1388. The results
indicate that the uncertainty based on CPI and PPI indicators,
implying uncertainty in macroeconomics, has a negative significant
effect on bank lending behavior. In other words, banks decrease their
lending ratios when macroeconomic uncertainty increases,
becomming more conservative. The increase of uncertainty leads to
credit risk of banks and the probability of losses due to unsafe loans
and decrease in credits volume and the loans to the private sector.
. .
Volume 6, Issue 21 , July 2006, , Pages 167-208
