Mahnoush Abdollah Milani; Soheila Parvin; kosar seyedi
Abstract
One of the important objectives of policymakers in a society is reduction of income inequality. Taxes, as source of stable income for government, are the most important tools for adjusting income inequality. An efficient tax system in the form of progressive taxation can lead to improved income distribution. ...
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One of the important objectives of policymakers in a society is reduction of income inequality. Taxes, as source of stable income for government, are the most important tools for adjusting income inequality. An efficient tax system in the form of progressive taxation can lead to improved income distribution. This paper evaluates the impact of progressive income tax on income inequality in 30 provinces during the period 2005 - 2013 in Iran. For this purpose, the average income tax rate is calculated for each income decile and its effect on Gini coefficient has been tested while controlling for other independent variables which include the share of services and industry sectors in GDP and per capita income growth in each province. The empirical method of this study was based on panel data approach for which we applied Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate the dynamic equation. The results show that although the income tax is progressive in Iran, but the tax system has failed to reduce income inequality.
fatemeh abdolshah; Saeed Moshiri
Abstract
Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio ...
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Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio approach model developed by Wilson (1997) and analyze the impacts of various macroeconomic shocks on default rates of banks. In the constructed model, we first estimate the effects of macroeconomics variables on default rate. Then the dynamic relationship between selected macroeconomics variables is estimated by a VAR model. Residuals obtained in the two previous steps were used to construct the covariance matrix for system of equations. Finally, using the Monte-Carlo method, a path of default probabilities is simulated in a one-year horizon under different scenarios. We compare default rates under different stress scenarios with baseline scenario to identify the effects of different shocks. The results of simulation show that unemployment rate shock has been the most harmful factor for default probabilities, followed by exchange rates shock. A shock to GDP growth also affects default rates significantly. Inflation shock generates the least important effect on default rates, consistent with the insignificant coefficient of inflation rate in the estimated default probability equation. A simultaneous shock to all macroeconomic variables has higher impact on the default rates in lower tails than upper tails. The results also show the effects of shocks decrease with the passage of time.
Reza Taleblou; Teymour Mohammadi; Hadi Pirdayeh
Abstract
Researches in housing sector show that the effect of various economic factors on housing prices might be different in separate areas of a country and housing prices in different regions of the country have internal connections with each other. Modelling of these effects is done in the form of spatial ...
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Researches in housing sector show that the effect of various economic factors on housing prices might be different in separate areas of a country and housing prices in different regions of the country have internal connections with each other. Modelling of these effects is done in the form of spatial Econometrics. In this study, data related to 28 provinces of Iran during the period 2000 -2013 is used to estimate and compare the dynamic spatial SDM panel models with spatial SDM panel models and also to estimate the direct and indirect effects (space overflows) related to the explanatory variables in both the short and long term by using population spatial weight matrix in Matlab software. In order to choose the best spatial pattern consistent with the theoretical model of housing price determination, we have used Elhorst methodology and at every step, Likelihood ratio test (LR) and Lagrange multipliers tests (LM) are used to compare the spatial patterns. We found out that dynamic spatial model shows the best specification. By comparing the results of the dynamic spatial panel models, lagged housing price variable and spatial effects of this variable have a significant role in determining house prices. The results also show that only the spatial effects of household spending variable have a significant effect on housing prices and other variables such as land price, construction costs, rental housing prices, have significant effect on housing prices in the provinces of Iran both directly and in the form of space overflow effects.
Mohammad Azimzadeh Arani; Farshad Momeni
Abstract
Today, because of market failure in market–based economies, government regulation through regulatory bodies is vital. Rail transportation industry like other network industries has faced market failure because of its properties such as natural monopoly, nature of its multi-product activity, the ...
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Today, because of market failure in market–based economies, government regulation through regulatory bodies is vital. Rail transportation industry like other network industries has faced market failure because of its properties such as natural monopoly, nature of its multi-product activity, the specific role of rail infrastructure and externalities. Thus, this industry needs to be monitored by the regulatory bodies. This article is prepared by analytical-descriptive method in two parts. In the first part, principles, nature and instruments of regulation are examined and their position in rail transportation industry, especially in Iran, is addressed in the second part. The results show that the regulatory instruments are divided into competition laws and sectoral regulation which are related to competitive and noncompetitive markets respectively and they have separate function to each other. In Rail transportation industry, the infrastructure sector due to its natural monopoly is noncompetitive and the operating sector is competitive. In Iran, although significant steps have been taken to separate competitive and noncompetitive sectors as a law of free access to the rail network was passed but The Railways of I.R.I Company as the regulator of this industry is faced with serious challenges such as lack of independence, lack of appropriate mechanism for accountability and overlapping functions with other governmental bodies.
Seyed Aziz Arman; Vahid Kafili; Hassan Farazmand; Hossein Moltafet
Abstract
To reduce crime, it is necessary to study the reasons of criminal behavior. A critical viewpoint in investigating environmental conditions of committing crime is economic aspects of environment. In this research the impact of economic factors on crime in Iranian provenances during years 2000-2013 has ...
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To reduce crime, it is necessary to study the reasons of criminal behavior. A critical viewpoint in investigating environmental conditions of committing crime is economic aspects of environment. In this research the impact of economic factors on crime in Iranian provenances during years 2000-2013 has been studied. To do this, panel smooth transition method (PSTR) has been used. With Inflation as a transition variable, PSTR results show existence of two regimes and a threshold value indicate that in the first regime (low level of inflation), real income per capita doesn't have a signification impact on crime, however, in the second regime (high level of inflation), the impact of real income per capita on crime is negative and signification. In low level of inflation, the impact of income inequality on crime is positive and signification but in high levels of inflation, this variable has no impact on crime. In low level of inflation, industrialization has an insignificant impact but its impact in high level of inflation is positive and signification. Unemployment in both regimes has significant and positive impact in crime.
Hadi Heidari; GholamReza K. Haddad
Abstract
In this paper, we estimate the value at risk of Tehran stock exchange (TSE) index by using GARCH family models in short and long trading positions. Because of asymmetric behavior of returns for long and short positions in TSE, for enhanced accuracy of model, we apply asymmetric normal and t-student distribution ...
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In this paper, we estimate the value at risk of Tehran stock exchange (TSE) index by using GARCH family models in short and long trading positions. Because of asymmetric behavior of returns for long and short positions in TSE, for enhanced accuracy of model, we apply asymmetric normal and t-student distribution functions. By developing Sener et. al (2012) measurement for considering trading positions in performance assessment of parametric models, we show that EGARCH and GJRGARCH models with asymmetric normal and t-student distribution functions are more accurate than other models. Also complementary forecast ability test explain that, with a benchmark model such as GJRGARCH, other models do not have equal mean error, so the asymmetric distribution functions in EGARCH and GJRGARCH models improve their ranks.
Jaber Abdi; Mohammd Taghi Gilak Hakim Abadi
Abstract
Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this ...
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Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this study is to introduce and explain the theoretical basis of the economic vulnerability index to reach a suitable structure for evaluating this index in Iran and other middle-income countries. The results of this study show that the situation of Iran in terms of this indicator among the 8 countries surveyed in the period between 1995 and 2012 was not satisfactory, in a way that the rank of Iran in most of this period (13 years) was higher than the average 8 countries. Also, the trend of this indicator is positive and rising for Iran in this period. Analysis of Economic factors affecting vulnerability show that in this period, weakness of export diversification was the most important item that negatively affected the level of economic vulnerability in Iran in comparison with other selected countries.
Hassan Dargahi; Kazem Biabany Khameneh
Abstract
Expansion of foreign trade has important effects on energy intensity based on the structural conditions and economic nature of countries. In the present research the scale effect (the economy volume changing), the composite effect (the structure of economic activities changing) and the technical effect ...
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Expansion of foreign trade has important effects on energy intensity based on the structural conditions and economic nature of countries. In the present research the scale effect (the economy volume changing), the composite effect (the structure of economic activities changing) and the technical effect (productivity changing) resulting from the trade on the energy intensity of Iran economy, as one of the important economic-environmental indicators is investigated. For this purpose the empirical model of the research according to the economic theories by using the structural vector autoregression in 1353-1392 is modeled. The results of the model show that the trade expansion have positive scale and composite effects but negative technical effect on the energy intensity of Iran. Also the size of technical effect is bigger than the resultant of the two other effects. Therefore according to the results, increasing the volume of foreign trade has not energy intensive effect and there is evidence that energy intensity decreases from the total factors productivity channel (as an indicator of technical changes). Therefore the expansion of foreign trade in Iran is considered energy saving.
Mohammadgholi Yousefi; Bahman Khadam
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to find the main determinants of stagflation in Iranian manufacturing sector during 1982-2012. We have used the data of manufacturing industries, categorizing them into three groups of resource base, low technology and medium and high technological industries. We have used ...
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The purpose of this study is to find the main determinants of stagflation in Iranian manufacturing sector during 1982-2012. We have used the data of manufacturing industries, categorizing them into three groups of resource base, low technology and medium and high technological industries. We have used logit regression with fixed effect, taking industries utilizing less than 50 percent of their nominal capacity and having more than 20 percent disguised unemployment in addition with having capital–output ratio of over 3o percent as industries suffering from stagflation. If a manufacturing industry was suffering stagflation, its dependent variable was given a value of 1 and the dependent variable of other industries was set to zero. Our explanatory variables include the imports of intermediate goods, wage costs, labor productivity, interest rates, exchange rate and oil revenue. Our findings show that all the variables with the exception of labor productivity had expected signs and their coefficients were statistically significant. The results show that, while as expected, the coefficient of labor productivity was negative, however, the coefficients of other variables were positive and significant implying positive impact on stagflation.
