Analyzing the Effects of Power Plant Fuel Price Reform on Iran Electricity Market by Using Agent-Based Simulation

Asadi, Mohammadbagher; Sadeghi Soghdel, Hosein; Sahabi, Bahram; Naseri, Alireza

doi:10.22054/joer.2017.7847

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ PhD Student in Economics, Tarbiat Modares University

² Associate Professor, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University

³ Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University

https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2017.7847

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of fuel price reform on the technology mix of power plants and other outputs of the Iran electricity market. In this regard, Iran electricity market has been simulated by using an agent-based model for a long-term period. Then, as a result of fuel price reform, the changes in the outputs of the electricity market, including the average price, average efficiency, capacity and technology mix of generation has been studied and analyzed. The results show that, the current situation of technology mix of power plants is far from optimum conditions. Accordingly, the reform of fuel prices may change the returns and incentives of investment in different technologies so that, technology mix of power plants would face major changes, and by increasing share of more efficient power plants like combined cycle power plants, the average efficiency of electricity production increase from current 36% to more than 55%.

Keywords

References

جدیدالاسلام زیدآبادی، مرتضی، احسان بی جامی و اکبر ابراهیمی (1390)، «برنامه ریزی توسعه تولید با استفاده از الگوریتم اصلاح شده SFL»، مجله علمی پژوهشی سیستم‌هایهوشمنددرمهندسیبرق، شماره اول، سال دوم، بهار، صفحات 27-44.

دهاقین، محمد، پارسا محسن مقدم و محمد حسین جاویدی (1383(، «برنامه‌ریزی بهینه توسعه تولید با استفاده از الگوریتم ژنتیک»، دوازدهمین کنفرانس مهندسی برق ایران.

منظور، داوود و حسین رضایی (1391)، «بررسی اصلاح قیمت سوخت مصرفی نیروگاه‌ها بر میزان ظرفیت سازی و تولید برق در کشور: رویکرد پویایی سیستمی»، فصلنامهپژوهشهاوسیاست‌هایاقتصادی، شماره 64،سال بیستم، زمستان، صفحات 25-46.

Aizenberg, N. (2014), “Interaction of Generation Companies in the Electricity Market of Russia, Procedia Computer Science”, 31, 75 – 84.

Botterud, A., R. M. Mahalik, T. D. Veselka, H. S. Ryu and K. W. Sohn (2007), “Multi-Agent Simulation of Generation Expansion in Electricity Market”, Power Engineering Society General Meeting, IEEE.

Bun, W .D. and S. F. Oliveira (2007), “Agent-based Analysis of Technological Diversification and Specialization in Electricity Markets”, European Journal of Operational Research, 181: 1265–1278.

Chappin, E. J. L. and G. P. J. Dijkema (2007), “An Agent Based Model of the System of Electricity Production Systems: Exploring the Impact of CO2 Emission-Trading”, SoSE '07. IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering.

Dahlan, N. Y. (2011) “Valuation Model for Generation Investment In Liberalized Electricity Market”, Ph.D. Thesis, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Manchester.

Dahlan, N. Y. (2015), “Agent-Based Modeling for Studying the Impact of Capacity Mechanisms on Generation Expansion in Liberalized Electricity Market”, Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology, 10 (4): 1460-1470.

EIA (2013), “Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Utility Scale Electricity Generating Plants”.

Hussy, C., E. Klaassen, J. Koornneef and F. Wigand (2014), “International Comparison of Fossil Power Efficiency and CO2 Intensity”, ECOFYS.

Olsina, F., F. Garce and H. Haubrich (2006), “Modeling Long-Term Dynamics of Electricity Markets”, Energy Policy, 34: 1411–1433.

Ortega-Vazquez, M. A. and D. S. Kirschen (2008), “Assessment of Generation Expansion Mechanisms Using Multi-Agent Systems”, Power & Energy Society General Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US.

Pereira, A. J. C. and J. T. Saraiva (2010), “A Decision Support System for Generation Expansion Planning in Competitive Electricity Markets”, Electric Power Systems Research, 80: 778–787.

Richstein, J. C., E. J. L. Chappin and L. J. de Vries (2014), “Cross-Border Electricity Market Effects Due to Price Caps in an Emission Trading System: An Agent-Based Approach”, Energy Policy, 71: 139–158.

Santos, H. L. and L. F. L. Legey (2013), “A Model for Long-Term Electricity Expansion Planning with Endogenous Environmental Costs”, Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 51: 98–105.

Sensfuß, F., M. Genoese and M. Ragwitz (2008), “Analysis Of The Impact Of Renewable Electricity Generation On CO2 Emissions And Power Plant Operation In Germany”, Symposium Energie innovation, Graz/Austria.

Tang, L., J. Wu, L. Yu and Q. Bao (2015), “Carbon Emissions Trading Scheme Exploration in China: A Multi-Agent-Based Model”, Energy Policy, 81: 152–169.

Trigo, P., P. Marques and H. Coelho (2010), “(virtual) Agents for Running Electricity Markets”, Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 18: 1442-1452.

Weidlic, A. and D. Veit (2008), “A Critical Survey of Agent-Based Wholesale Electricity Market Models”, Energy Economics, 30:1728–1759

Young, D., S. Poletti b and O. Browne (2014), “Can Agent-based Models Forecast Spot Prices in Electricity Markets? Evidence from the New Zealand Electricity Market”, Energy Economics, 45: 419–434.

Zhang, Q., B. C. Mclellan, T. Tezuka and K. N. Ishihara (2013), “An Integrated Model for Long-Term Power Generation Planning Toward Future Smart Electricity Systems”, Applied Energy, 112: 1424–1437.

Economics Research

Analyzing the Effects of Power Plant Fuel Price Reform on Iran Electricity Market by Using Agent-Based Simulation

References

References

Volume 17, Issue 65 - Serial Number 2
July 2017
Pages 81-114

Analyzing the Effects of Power Plant Fuel Price Reform on Iran Electricity Market by Using Agent-Based Simulation

References

References

Volume 17, Issue 65 - Serial Number 2July 2017Pages 81-114

Volume 17, Issue 65 - Serial Number 2
July 2017
Pages 81-114