Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Professor, Faculty of Mathematical Science, Allameh Tabatab’i University
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Mathematical Science, Allameh Tabatab’i University
3 PhD Student in Economics, Allameh Tabatab’i
4 PhD in Economics, University of Luigi Bocconi, Italy
Abstract
Recent decade was undoubtedly a uniqe one for the banking and financial sector in Iranian economy. Stock market index was breaking records now and then, new credit institutions were established one after another, and different banks were competing in raising their interest rates of deposits. Put this story alongside an unprecedented bubble in construction sector in years 2006 and 2007, and we can realize that real sectors of the economy, specially industry and agriculture, were in what circumstances. Whatever is our definition of development and whatever is our index for measuring it, we cannot deny the fact that the reliable development is the one which is balanced and can cause growth in all sectors in a homogeneous and proportional way. One of important factors in analysing the situation of these sectors, is the credit ranking and grading that they have been able to get based on their performance from banking and financial system. Therefore, measuring credit risk in these sectors can make a good impression on their performance for policy-makers in each sector and economist involved with the issue. In this paper, we are going to calculate and analyze credit risk in different sectors of Iranian economy, namely “industry”, “agriculture” and “services and housing” sectors by analysing companies accepted in Stock Exchange and OTC markets. Some of the results of this study are high volatility and declining credit risk in industry sector, high and growing volatility in services and housing sector, and low volatility but very high average and declining trend in agriculture sector.
Keywords
(ریالی و ارزی).
دنیای اقتصاد.
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