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Volume 2, Issue 5 , July 2002, , Pages 195-227
Ebrahim Rezaie; Mojtaba Bahmani; Alireza Hirad
Volume 8, Issue 30 , October 2008, , Pages 197-217
Abstract
According to macroeconomic theories, interest rate is investment cost which is important in decision process that organized by private sector. But, there aren’t any consensus among economists about this hypothesis. Also from theoretical point, the effects of interest rate variation on saving ...
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According to macroeconomic theories, interest rate is investment cost which is important in decision process that organized by private sector. But, there aren’t any consensus among economists about this hypothesis. Also from theoretical point, the effects of interest rate variation on saving rate is ambiguous. In fact, it is not clear that what will be the sign of elasticity of saving respect to interest rate fluctuations? therefore, in this paper, we assessed the simultaneous effects of interest rate on economy by macroeconomic model framework. We found that the interest rate have negative, but negligble, impact on investment of private sector.
Mehdi Taghavi; Seyyed Yousef Ahadi Serkani
Volume 7, Issue 25 , July 2007, , Pages 197-235
Abstract
This study is an attempt to investigate the reciprocal effects of economic growth and financial structure on one hand, and economic growth and ownership structure of companies on the other. The study aim is to identify and clarify the implications of the aforementioned relationships in order to utilize ...
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This study is an attempt to investigate the reciprocal effects of economic growth and financial structure on one hand, and economic growth and ownership structure of companies on the other. The study aim is to identify and clarify the implications of the aforementioned relationships in order to utilize the results in decision making policies and in implementing laws constraining financial as well as ownership structures of companies in the process of development. The analysis of the percentage of debt and capital variations with the assumption of compound growth revealed that by financing through increasing debt, companies failed to have an impact on economic growth. This finding is an indication of the significance of financing through increasing the capital and its role on the process of development. No significant result has been found between economic growth and other structural variables. Meanwhile, by utilizing the second and third assumptions to determine structural indices, no significant causal relationship has been found between economic growth and structural variables.
Parviz Davodi; Khadijeh Kaboli
Volume 8, Issue 28 , April 2008, , Pages 199-221
Abstract
One of the effective elements in finding the appropriate outward oriented strategies for each country is having the comparative advantage in the production and export of goods. In this regard, numerous indices have been raised by economists, to measure comparative advantages of different countries. Balasa’s ...
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One of the effective elements in finding the appropriate outward oriented strategies for each country is having the comparative advantage in the production and export of goods. In this regard, numerous indices have been raised by economists, to measure comparative advantages of different countries. Balasa’s revealed comparative advantage index is one of them, which emphasizes on the export comparative advantages.
This paper not only attempts to present theoretical foundations of these indices, but also to measure the revealed comparative advantages of Iran’s automobile industry. The results of this study indicate that Iran does not have export comparative advantage in automotive industry.
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Volume 3, Issue 8 , April 2003, , Pages 199-215
Mohamad Javad Mohaghegh Nia; Ali Akbari Bavafa Gelyan
Abstract
Microfinance programs emerged in mid 1980s. So, microfinance can be labeled as a new phenomenon. The reason for emergence and rapid development of microfinance programs can be weakness of former development strategies, especially those of financial development. In this research by using a three-dimension ...
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Microfinance programs emerged in mid 1980s. So, microfinance can be labeled as a new phenomenon. The reason for emergence and rapid development of microfinance programs can be weakness of former development strategies, especially those of financial development. In this research by using a three-dimension Delphi query, the important factors affecting microfinance at Iran have been explored. In the resources side, deposits are composed of Qard al-Hasan, donation, subrogation and saving. In the uses side, the loans are divided into consumption (general consumptions and emergencies) and investing purposes. The institutions active in microfinance are divided into two groups of banks (commercial banks and financial holdings) and financial institutions (for profit and non-profit). The group lending and solidarity responsibility were underlined at legal-jurisprudence. At the application aspects, emphasis on usage of electronic systems and separate report of loans by their types and contracts is noticeable.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Arash Khoshkar; Pedram Davoudi
Volume 10, Issue 36 , April 2010, , Pages 201-222
Abstract
Economic inequality in Iran is affected by the existing within inequality and among all provinces in the country as a whole. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the Theil inequality index inequality within and among all provinces including urban and rural regions.
In doing so, ...
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Economic inequality in Iran is affected by the existing within inequality and among all provinces in the country as a whole. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the Theil inequality index inequality within and among all provinces including urban and rural regions.
In doing so, the micro 2007 household data is used. The results show that the share of the urban and rural inequality within provinces is 8% and 11%, respectively. Therefore, inequality between provinces has not considerable effect on the inequality as a whole. According to these results one may suggest to the macro province policy maker to concentrate on inequality reduction just within the provinces.
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Volume 2, Issue 4 , April 2002, , Pages 201-222
Hassan Dargahi; Kazem Biabany Khameneh
Abstract
Expansion of foreign trade has important effects on energy intensity based on the structural conditions and economic nature of countries. In the present research the scale effect (the economy volume changing), the composite effect (the structure of economic activities changing) and the technical effect ...
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Expansion of foreign trade has important effects on energy intensity based on the structural conditions and economic nature of countries. In the present research the scale effect (the economy volume changing), the composite effect (the structure of economic activities changing) and the technical effect (productivity changing) resulting from the trade on the energy intensity of Iran economy, as one of the important economic-environmental indicators is investigated. For this purpose the empirical model of the research according to the economic theories by using the structural vector autoregression in 1353-1392 is modeled. The results of the model show that the trade expansion have positive scale and composite effects but negative technical effect on the energy intensity of Iran. Also the size of technical effect is bigger than the resultant of the two other effects. Therefore according to the results, increasing the volume of foreign trade has not energy intensive effect and there is evidence that energy intensity decreases from the total factors productivity channel (as an indicator of technical changes). Therefore the expansion of foreign trade in Iran is considered energy saving.
Roghaye Shojaeddin; Majid Sameti; Zahra Dehghan Shabani
Abstract
The significance of tax revenue as the primary source of government finance underscores the importance of accurately measuring tax efforts using unbiased methodologies. This study employs a state-space model and the Kalman filter algorithm to estimate tax effort as an unobservable variable within the ...
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The significance of tax revenue as the primary source of government finance underscores the importance of accurately measuring tax efforts using unbiased methodologies. This study employs a state-space model and the Kalman filter algorithm to estimate tax effort as an unobservable variable within the tax revenue equation in Iran from 1970 to 2021.The findings reveal a nuanced relationship between various factors and the tax ratio. Per capita income exhibits a positive impact, while the agriculture share in GDP exerts a negative influence. Interestingly, the coefficients of openness and monetization initially have negative elasticity but transition to positive after reaching a certain threshold, indicating a dynamic relationship with the tax ratio. Conversely, the services and industry share in GDP demonstrate a positive effect on the tax ratio before reaching a peak, after which their squared coefficients turn negative.Tax effort in Iran, throughout the studied period, has never been more than 0.25 highlighting a significant disparity between actual and potential tax revenue and underscores inefficiencies within the tax system.
Introduction
Due to dependence on oil and structural problems, attention to important tax indexes has been neglected in Iran’s Economy. Therefore, in order to achieve more accurate results, a new approach has been taken by the research to estimate tax effort as an indicator that shows the ability of the government to enhance tax revenues.
Traditionally, tax effort is calculated by dividing actual tax revenue by potential tax revenue. However, this method is inherently biased as it fails to account for the influence of economic, social, and political factors on tax revenue collection, alongside tax effort itself. To address this limitation, the study employs the Kalman Filter estimation technique, which treats tax effort as an unobservable variable within the tax revenue function, alongside other economic variables.
Methods and Material
In literature, tax effort is calculated by estimating the following equation:
(1)
F1 = = =
where T is tax share, F is tax effort, Z is a vector of other factors affecting tax share and ω is an error term. It is evident that the estimator F1 is a biased estimator for tax effort F. Considering the effect of tax effort on tax revenue, the index should be included as a dependent variable in the tax revenue function. Referring to the study of Kim (2007) and in order to overcome the bias, the research suggests a state-space approach and Kalman Filter Algorithm. The structural time series method allows tax effort to be taken into consideration in the tax revenue function as an unobservable variable.
In this context, the tax revenue function considered a linear form incorporating variables such as per capita income, the share of agriculture, services and industry, openness, and monetization . However due to the low coefficient of determination and the results of Ramsey Reset test, adopting a quadratic function became imperative. Consequently,the final equation was changed as follows:
(3)
Results and Discussion
In econometric analysis, the stationary test of data typically examined. However, According to Harvey, the stationary test holds less signifcance in the structural time series model.. The analysis of variables confirms that all variables exibite statistical normality. The results of estimating equation 3 are reported in Table 1, which shows that the variables are significant at one percent level.
Table 1. The results of estimating the square function of tax revenue using the STSM method
Prob
t-statistic
RMSE
Coefficients
Variables
0.0090
-2.7836
0.0647
-0.1801
Level break 1998
0.0000
5.3930
0.0586
0.3159
Level break 2005
0.0000
-5.8246
0.0569
-0.3314
Level break 2000
0.0000
6.4744
0.9254
5.9920
LPY
0.0000
-6.0820
0.0611
-0.3719
LPY^2
0.0031
-3.2082
2.4578
-7.8851
LMO
0.0030
3.2130
0.2998
0.9631
LMO^2
0.0449
-2.0900
0.5520
-1.1536
LOP
0.0626
1.9312
0.0766
0.1480
LOP^2
0.0000
5.9359
3.2214
19.1223
LIND
0.0000
-6.1448
0.4668
-2.8682
LIND^2
0.0007
3.7434
7.1427
26.7385
LSEV
0.0004
-3.9563
0.8990
-3.5566
LSEV^2
0.0106
-2.7203
0.1102
-0.2997
LAGR
Reference: Research calculations and software output
There were breaks in 1998, 2000, and 2005. The cause of these breaks can be attributed to the Asian financial crisis, the dot-com bubble, and oil fever, respectively.
"In addition to examining elasticities, the squared coefficients of variables hold significance in the analysis. Despite the elasticity of the agricultural sector share being -0.29, its squared coefficient was omitted from the model due to its low explanatory power. Notably, the tax exemption status of the agricultural sector in Iran contributes to a negative impact on tax revenues.
Regarding per capita income, its elasticity is positive, yet its squared coefficient is negative. Initially, an increase in per capita income enhances tax revenues, but subsequently leads to a decline in the tax ratio. This phenomenon arises because governments can only collect a specific portion of per capita income as taxes. Continued taxation may result in taxpayer resistance, consequently leading to a reduction in tax revenue.".
The share of industry and services, both, have negative elasticity and squared coefficient. Initially, an increase in these variables leads to a rise in tax revenue, followed by a subsequent decrease where the negative effect predominates. Notably, only in cases where production is efficient, the industry can generate a significant taxable surplus. Therefore, the inefficient industry sector will not result in higher tax revenue in Iran.
Due to the lack of a full database and since some economic activities in Iran are unregistered and consequently untraceable, a significant percentage of tax evasion occurs in the services sector. Hereupon, the increase of this sector in Iran will not lead to more tax revenue.
Both openness and monetization exibit positive quadratic coefficients. The effect of these variables on the tax ratio is negative at first and becomes positive after the minimum point. The negative elasticity of these two variables is respectively caused by the government's policies such as lower tariffs for essential goods and the adverse effects of inflation on monetization and tax revenue as a result.
The tax effort trend is shown in Figure 1. The unevenness of the trend is caused by the fluctuation in oil revenues in Iran. Tax effort in the last 50 years has always been lower than 0.25, which indicates the misutilization of tax capacities.
Figure 1. Tax Effort Trend in Iran during the years 1970-2021
Reference: Research Findings
Conclusion
Recognizing the significance of taxes as a primary source of government revenue, this research employs the Kalman Filter algorithm and a state-space model to calculate tax effort in a novel manner. In this approach, tax effort, treated as an unobservable variable, is incorporated into the tax revenue function alongside six other variables. Given the low coefficient of determination and the outcomes of the Ramsey reset test, the linear model was deemed unsuitable. Consequently, the quadratic form of the function was adopted to better capture the complex relationship between tax effort and tax revenue."The estimations showed that the effect of per capita income on tax ratio is positive due to the increase in the potential of citizens to pay taxes, and the impact of agriculture share is negative due to tax exemptions.
The elasticity of monetization is negative owing to high inflation in Iran and its adverse effects on sales tax. The effect of this variable on tax ratio is initially negative, but after the minimum point, it becomes positive due to the compliance of taxpayers with inflationary conditions. Openness also has a negative elasticity due to the negative effect of import promotion policies. The share of industry and services have a positive effect on the dependent variable before reaching the maximum point. However, due to a high rate of tax evasion within this sector and production inefficiency in manufacturing, this effect reverses after surpassing the maximum point..
The discrepancy in the signs of the elasticities for some variables can be attributed to utilization of different approaches in estimating the tax effort. The low tax effort in Iran reveals the necessity to make changes in government tax policies to make the most of tax capacities.
For the purpose of enhancing tax revenue, some measures should be taken to reduce tax evasion and increase the tax potential of economic sectors. Eliminating unnecessary tax exemptions can also improve tax performance. The exemptions should be gradually phased out until they are completely eliminated,as long-term tax exemptions in Iran create non-competitive structures.
Mohssen Mehrara; Hamid Abrishami; Hamid Zamanzadeh Nasr Abadi
Volume 10, Issue 38 , October 2010, , Pages 205-233
Ahmad Sabahi; Mohammad Falah
Volume 9, Issue 32 , April 2009, , Pages 205-238
Abstract
Efficiency evaluation, according to the concept of production function in microeconomics has been always in the centre of their attention. This issue for the service supplying firms will be more complicated. The level of efficiency is very crucial for managers and policy makers who lead the human and ...
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Efficiency evaluation, according to the concept of production function in microeconomics has been always in the centre of their attention. This issue for the service supplying firms will be more complicated. The level of efficiency is very crucial for managers and policy makers who lead the human and capital sources.
A study on insurance penetration, insurance accumulation and the share of domestic Net premium on the world Net premium data shows that the insurance industry could not achieve it’s real position in Iran economy. In other side, this industry has been faced to some threatens such as joining Iran to WTO.
Moreover, in recent years the extending private insurance companies cause the necessity of paying attention to the efficiency improvement for the public insurance companies.
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of non-parametric methods for estimating production function. This method by using linear programming, compare homogenous firms in an industry that producing similar outputs with same inputs. Efficient and inefficient firms have recognized by DEA. Today this method has expanded application in this field.
This research measured efficiency of 210 branches of Iran, Albors and Asia insurances companies by DEA method and recognized inefficient branches. Also, some recommendations have been explained for efficiency improvement.
Gholamreza Eslami Bidgoli; Saeed Bajalan
Volume 8, Issue 29 , July 2008, , Pages 205-225
Abstract
Inflation and its causes are one of the main issues in economics. One of the theories that try to interpret this phenomenon is Quantity Theory of Money. According to this theory, there is pure linear relationship between the amount of liquidity and general level of prices. This article tests the accuracy ...
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Inflation and its causes are one of the main issues in economics. One of the theories that try to interpret this phenomenon is Quantity Theory of Money. According to this theory, there is pure linear relationship between the amount of liquidity and general level of prices. This article tests the accuracy of this theory in Iran. In addition, the government of Iran has taken the policy of price stabilizing for several years. This article also investigates the effect of this policy on inflation rate. The results show that although the relationship between liquidity and inflation in Iran is not linear, changes in liquidity have a direct effect on inflation. In addition, results indicate that there is statistically significant positive relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation rate. So government could control inflation uncertainty through this policy, which in turn lead to decrease in inflation rate.
Hamid Shahrestni; Farhad Savabi Asl; Bijan Bidabad
Volume 10, Issue 39 , January 2011, , Pages 207-229
Ali Divandari; Reza Shabahang; Mohammad Ebrahim Mohammad Pour zarandi; Seyed Reza Mosavi
Volume 6, Issue 23 , January 2007, , Pages 207-235
Abstract
Lending is one of the main services of the banks. It is notable that the process of funding money and lending it to the customers has a cost of capital, so, the lending condition should be economical for both bank and customers. Hence, in this article we’re going to provide a model of banking loans ...
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Lending is one of the main services of the banks. It is notable that the process of funding money and lending it to the customers has a cost of capital, so, the lending condition should be economical for both bank and customers. Hence, in this article we’re going to provide a model of banking loans loan portfolio which is designed as a soft-ware application that supported by Data Mining Technology and mathematical models. This model could provide optimum combination of bank’s loan portfolio and contribute as a decision support system for bank credit management.
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Volume 5, Issue 17 , July 2005, , Pages 209-236
seyed mostafa hosseini; bijan baseri; gholamreza abbasi
Abstract
Immigration is one of main concerns of policymakers in situations of recession and low return on economic activities due to its impact on labor supply and pressure on unemployment. Over the past three decades, Iran has become a host country with a wide range of Afghan immigrants who have a long history ...
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Immigration is one of main concerns of policymakers in situations of recession and low return on economic activities due to its impact on labor supply and pressure on unemployment. Over the past three decades, Iran has become a host country with a wide range of Afghan immigrants who have a long history of mutual language, religion, culture, benefits and a common border, and are seeking to work in Iran. In this paper, the pathology of the arrival of Afghan immigrants and the intensity of the influx of immigrants on supply forces in Iranian labor market by using the ARDL model in the period 1979-2015 shows that increased immigration through the pressure on labor supply has led to an escalation of unemployment in Iran. Based on estimation results, the pressure of immigrants on labor supply was not such that wages would suffer a significant reduction in the labor market, and there was no significant relationship between immigrants and their wages in the labor market. The high correlation between the level of minimum wages and wages, the type of occupations of Afghan immigrants (mostly unskilled), the determination of wages based on the livelihood of workers, the time and area dispersion of migrants and their different capabilities are among the main factors that affect the relationship between immigrant labor supply and wages for the period under study.
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Volume 5, Issue 16 , April 2005, , Pages 213-241
Khosro Manteghi
Volume 6, Issue 20 , April 2006, , Pages 215-234
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Volume 5, Issue 18 , October 2005, , Pages 217-235
alireza kazerooni; khatereh alilou; Zana Mozaffari
Abstract
The main goal of every development plan is to achieve economic growth and mass production with considerations for the needs of economy and optimal utilization of resources and capital in the society. Urbanization is one of the most important aspects of the modern society, which embodies significant factors ...
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The main goal of every development plan is to achieve economic growth and mass production with considerations for the needs of economy and optimal utilization of resources and capital in the society. Urbanization is one of the most important aspects of the modern society, which embodies significant factors that can lead to economic growth. Urbanization is the relationship between population, employment, migration, physical construction and human environment, and its development at any time and in any geographical area is influenced by national and international conditions. Today, the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth has been confirmed by theories and empirical evidence. This study examines the contemporaneous effects of urbanization and foreign direct investment on economic growth in Iranian provinces over period 2006-2015 by using Generalized Moment Method (GMM). Our results show that foreign direct investment, government size, capital stock and human capital index have a positive impact on economic growth in Iranian provinces. However, the effect of urbanization intensity on economic growth has been found to be negative.
Mohammad Ali Motafakker Aazad; Reza Ranjpour; Mohsen Pourebadolahan; Mehdi Asali; Mir Taher Pourpartovi Alanagh
Abstract
Currently, National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company is the exclusive distributor of various petroleum products all over Iran. High price of land in large cities and small amounts of revenue creates a waek competitive environment in which private sector is not motivated enough to invest on construction ...
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Currently, National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company is the exclusive distributor of various petroleum products all over Iran. High price of land in large cities and small amounts of revenue creates a waek competitive environment in which private sector is not motivated enough to invest on construction of gas stations, hence this situation leads to a shortage of gas stations in the country. One of the ways to overcome this insufficiency is to use capacities of private sector in the process of petroleum products distribution. In order to deregulate the market for distribution of petroleum products in the country, it is necessary to reform its structure. However, implementing this change should happen gradually and in different stages. Also, in all stages the government should supervise the execution of the task. In this paper, three stages of restructuring the market for petroleum products distribution in the country has been proposed. The first stage is to creat the necessary conditions for establishment of qualified firms which their duty is to receive petroleum products from oil depots and to distribute the products in filling stations. Because petroleum products in Iran have subsidized prices, it is necessary for the government to determine the commission rate paid to private firms entering this field in a way that their activity is economically viable. In this paper, by considering current and capital costs and using economic engineering- feasibility model proposed by United Nations Industrial Development Organization- and with the help of COMFAR III Expert software, we have calculated the commission rate payable to distribution companies for different values of land prices. Calculation results show that if land price considered to be zero, net commission rate payable to private distribution companies for one liter of petroleum product should be 783 IRRs. In conditions in which the distribution company is owner of either out-of-town or center of province, this number should be 808 and 1153 IRRs respectively. This number for a case in which stations are constructed by the distribution companies in combined locations: centers of provices, other cities and out-of-town stations, is calculated to be 956 IRRs.
Abdolmajid Jalaie; Hamid Reza Horri; Fatemeh Irani Kermani
Volume 6, Issue 22 , October 2006, , Pages 229-255
Abstract
How the real exchange rate behavior is affected by macroeconomic variables within a country is important. Accordingly, this paper has tried, to explain the behavior of it, and to estimate RER for Iran in period of 1959 to 2004. Estimation of the model has been done through VAR and VECM. ...
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How the real exchange rate behavior is affected by macroeconomic variables within a country is important. Accordingly, this paper has tried, to explain the behavior of it, and to estimate RER for Iran in period of 1959 to 2004. Estimation of the model has been done through VAR and VECM. Estimation of the model showed that Monetary Policy and the degree of economic openness have had a negative impact on the real exchange rate in the short run, but in the long run their impact have turned to be positive. Also, Exchange Policy, which is the indicator of the exchange system in any country, has had a negative impact on the RER in the short run, but in the long run the impact of controls on the exchange system has been positive on RER.
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Volume 6, Issue 21 , July 2006, , Pages 229-263
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Volume 5, Issue 19 , January 2006, , Pages 235-262
