Hodjatollah Mirzaei; Narges Razban; Teymor Mohamadi; Habib Morovat
Abstract
Housing price shocks of one region may spread to the housing market of neighboring regions or geographical areas bounded by political border and lead to the formation of price shocks in shock-receiving areas. The housing policies may not be effective when implemented regionally and separately ...
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Housing price shocks of one region may spread to the housing market of neighboring regions or geographical areas bounded by political border and lead to the formation of price shocks in shock-receiving areas. The housing policies may not be effective when implemented regionally and separately if there is a confirmed network connection between the housing markets of regions. Price shocks to a housing market spreads with a delayto interconnected housing markets, ultimately resulting in the diffusion of the price shock across the entire of the housing network. This researchaims to investigate the housing network between selected cities (centers of the country's provinces) using the VAR model and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results of this research confirm the existence of a network connection between the housing markets of the country's provinces, and unlike previous studies, the results show that it is not only the city of Tehran that spreads price shocks to other regions, but also cities such as Karaj, Shiraz, and Arak spread price shocks to other cities. In addition, the results suggest that the recent price jump, since 2019 has significantly increased the density of the housing network in the country. Based on this, price shocks are expected to be distributed more quickly throughout the country.
Introduction
In addition to the fact that economic characteristics, macroeconomic policies, and external factors affect housing prices, housing price shocks in neighboring geographical areas also spread to housing prices in each region and can lead to the formation of price changes in the price-accepting region. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the network connection between the housing markets of the geographical regions within a country. This research aims to explore the network connections and dynamics between housing markets in provincial centers, as well as the relationships between all pairs of centers to form a comprehensive housing market network for the country. Specifically, the study seeks to identify: (a) the centers of the provinces whose housing price disturbances are most contagious to other provinces and (b) the centers of the provinces that are most affected by the housing price disturbances of other provinces should be identified.
Methods and Material
The study utilized data from the Statistics Center spanning period from 2009 to 2011.
The research methodology employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model. To address the identification problem in the model, the centers of the provinces were classified into four groups:
1: Tehran, Alborz, Mazandaran, Isfahan, Gilan, Khorasan-Razavi, Qom, Qazvin and East Azerbaijan.
2: Fars, Khuzestan, Golestan, Hormozgan, Bushehr, Zanjan and Hamedan.
3: Semnan, Yazd, Lorestan, North Khorasan, Kerman, South Khorasan, Kohgiluyeh and Boir Ahmad, Markazi and Kurdistan.
4: West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Ilam, Kermanshah, Sistan and Baluchistan, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari.
In the network connection approach proposed Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), the vector autoregression model or VAR has been used.
In a country with three geographical regions A, B and C:
(1)
The VAR system of equations has three equations for housing prices in areas A, B, and C. The housing price in each region such as A at the current time (t) is a function of the price of the same region in previous periods ( ), and the price of other regions in previous periods ( and ) (k=1, 2, .. K). The effectiveness of the price of region A from the price of the same region and regions B and C in the previous periods are measured by β-11k, β-21k, and β-31k coefficients, respectively. The number of optimal breaks in equation (1) is determined by the Schwartz criterion.
In order to form a network connection and to check the amount of shock propagation from region i to j, variance analysis of prediction error is used. In this regard, Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) introduced four indicators:
(1)Shock received from others: The shock received by each region from other regions
FC=
(2)Shock sent to others: The shock sent by each region to other regions
OC=
(3)Total connections per network: average total shock per region
TC=
(4)Net communication or NC: the net shock sent by any region to other regions
NC=
Correlation between regions based on variance analysis
Shock received from other areas
areas
Shock sent to other areas
Results and Discussion
The reliability test of Becker et al. (2007) was conducted for all provinces, which was found to be significant in all cases.
Based on the results of VAR model and variance analysis:
First group: Isfahan and Qom are the biggest receivers and Mashhad is the weakest recipient. Karaj and Tehran are the biggest senders of shocks and Qom and Isfahan are the weakest senders.
Second group: Gorgan and Hamadan are the most important and Bushehr is the weakest recipient. Shiraz and Zanjan are the most important shock transmitters , while Bandar Abbas and Bushehr are the weakest.
Third group: Semnan and Sanandaj are the most important shock receiver, and Bojnord is the weakest receiver; Arak and Yazd are the most important sender of shocks and Sanandaj is the weakest sender .
Fourth group: Ardabil and Kermanshah are the most important senders and receivers of price shocks, respectively. The calculation of the total communication index in the housing network shows that the first group has the densest and the fourth group has the thinnest housing network.
In order to investigate the evolution of the housing network (changes in density over time), the Galtan's regression logic was used indicating an increase in the density of the housing network in the centers of the provinces over time.
Conclusion
The dynamics of real housing price changes demonstrate three distinct patterns.. During the years 2009 to 2012, the price of most centers decreased and remained almost constant from 2012 to 2018, and then all the centers had a sharp price increase. As a result:
(1) Karaj, Tehran, Shiraz, Arak and Ardabil sent the most price shocks;
(2) Isfahan, Gorgan, Semnan and Kermanshah received the most price shocks,
(3) the strongest housing network was observed between the cities of Mashhad, Sari, Qom and Tabriz, Isfahan, Karaj, Tehran, Qazvin and Rasht and
(4) the housing network among the provincial centers has increased during the years (2009 to 2010).
In times when the living conditions in the cities that are significant senders the shock become difficult, other cities within the network have become centers of population attraction and can change their roles. Consequently, it is advisable for housing market policies to consider the mutual influence between city prices. By doing so, when market price jumps occur, the extent of shock transmission from these driving centers can be somewhat controlled, thereby mitigating market excitement and excessive growth in prices. As an example, the policies on the supply side can be such that the supply in the shock-sending areas is facilitated. Preventive measures such as supporting the supply of semi-finished units, facilitating the conditions for issuing permits, facilitating access to construction loans, activating pre-sale tools, etc., should be adopted in leading areas so that when price jumps occur, shocks will be sent from these regions to other regions at a slower rate. it is advisable for housing market policies to consider the mutual influence between city prices. By doing so, when market price jumps occur, the extent of shock transmission from these driving centers can be somewhat controlled, thereby mitigating market excitement and excessive growth in prices.
Acknowledgment
In the end, we would like to express our gratitude to Dr. Nasser Khiabani, Dr. Ali Nasiri-Aghdam, Dr. Mirhossein Mousavi, and Dr. Taleblo, for their invaluable contributions to this paper.
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Volume 6, Issue 21 , July 2006, , Pages 121-150
Elham Heshmati Dayari; Sohrab Delangizan; Mohammad Sharif Karimi
Abstract
Poverty is one of the major problems of human societies that causes many social harms. Therefore, policymakers and economic development planners always aim to eliminate it. In addition, economic growth is one of the important and influential variables of macroeconomics. Therefore, examining the ...
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Poverty is one of the major problems of human societies that causes many social harms. Therefore, policymakers and economic development planners always aim to eliminate it. In addition, economic growth is one of the important and influential variables of macroeconomics. Therefore, examining the impact of economic growth on poverty through the lens of growth and distribution effects offers valuable insights for policymaking and poverty reduction strategies. In this study, we use the log-normal curve approach introduced by Bourguignon to estimate the growth effect on poverty utilizing data from urban households in Iran over the period 2013-2019. The results indicate that only in the one-year period of 2015-2016, the triangle of poverty, growth, and inequality has worked well and the growth has been pro-poor.
Furthermore, provincial-level findings unveil discernible patterns:
(a) In provinces experiencing positive growth, urban areas in Qom exhibit pro-poor growth, while those in Alborz, Golestan, and Hamedan provinces observe a trickle-down effect. Meanwhile, in other provinces, growth demonstrates an immiserizing trend.
(b) In provinces with negative growth, only urban areas in Markazi province observe a reduction in poverty. However, due to the lack of growth, it cannot be concluded that this province has had pro-poor growth. In the urban areas of other provinces in this group, the situation has been unfavourable for the poor.
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Volume 2, Issue 7 , January 2003, , Pages 125-143
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Volume 4, Issue 13 , July 2004, , Pages 127-173
Aliasghar Esmaeilnia; Shahram i Vasfi Asfestan
Abstract
Due to different approaches to study security, there are several different indicators and policy recommendations for each of these approaches and they have different economic effects on societies. In this study the economic effects of traditional and new security approaches are studied by using different ...
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Due to different approaches to study security, there are several different indicators and policy recommendations for each of these approaches and they have different economic effects on societies. In this study the economic effects of traditional and new security approaches are studied by using different indicators, including indicators of the fragility of governments, perceived corruption, peace and military expenditure, for 135 countries in the period 2004 to 2014 and 2008 to 2014 by applying panel data method. The results show that factors of government fragility and military expenditure has negative impact on economic growth. The wider the extent of governments fragility, the less economic growth will be seen in those countries. The Relationship between "Corruption Perception Index" and economic growth shows that economic growth is high in the countries with less corruption in government sector. The study of the relationship between "Global Peace Index" and "government fragility index" with the investment in the countries show that global peace index has a positive impact and government fragility index has a negative impact on investment. In general, we can say the indices based on traditional approaches of security don’t have a positive impact on economic growth and, on the opposite side, the indices based on new approaches toward security have positive relation with economic factors, because they are structure-oriented and consider a wide range of factors leading to insecurity.
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Volume 3, Issue 9 , July 2003, , Pages 131-159
Abbas Assari Arani; Saeid Rostami
Abstract
This study examines the impact of energy security on the economic growth of the 10 selected energy exporting countries in the Middle East. The Benchmark model is based on a generalized version of Cobb Douglass’s production function. Ten measures of energy security have been used for ...
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This study examines the impact of energy security on the economic growth of the 10 selected energy exporting countries in the Middle East. The Benchmark model is based on a generalized version of Cobb Douglass’s production function. Ten measures of energy security have been used for the whole set of panels, using five concepts of energy security including, availability, accessibility, acceptability, cost- effectiveness and development capability. The paper uses estimated generalized least squares (EGLS), and panel– corrected standard error (PCSE) to estimate the model. Based on the results, the lack of difference between "energy production" and "energy consumption", has a positive effect on the economic growth of selected Middle Eastern energy exporting countries . Also, "national energy supply ability", "national energy structure", "renewable energy consumption", "carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy consumption", "political stability" and "oil price" also have a positive effect on the economic growth of these countries. But the amount of "energy intensity" and "the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to GDP" had a negative impact on their economic growth.
parisa moghadasi; Sajjad Faraji Dizaji; Abbas Assari Arani
Abstract
Income inequality is one of the important and key issues in the economy, which, considering its function and consequences, can affect people's health in various ways and endanger the stability and stability of the socio-economic system. Today, most countries suffer from inequality in the distribution ...
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Income inequality is one of the important and key issues in the economy, which, considering its function and consequences, can affect people's health in various ways and endanger the stability and stability of the socio-economic system. Today, most countries suffer from inequality in the distribution of wealth and income due to various reasons. For this reason, this study examines the effect of the good governance index in reducing the effect of Covid-19 on income inequality using available data for countries that export more than 50,000 barrels of oil per day during the years 2000 to 2021 using a panel econometric model. The data has been paid. The results of the research show that the death rate from covid-19 has had a positive and significant effect on increasing income inequality in oil-rich countries. On the other hand, the variable of good governance *Covid-19 with a negative and significant effect on the variable of the Gini coefficient has reduced income inequality.
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Volume 1, Issue 1 , July 2001, , Pages 47-56
Omid Pour-heidari; Mohammad Hasan Fadavi; Meysam Amini-nia
Volume 14, Issue 52 , April 2014, , Pages 85-69
Abstract
Abstract In this paper, the impact of tax avoidance on the transparency of financial reporting of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange is investigated. The indexes that are used to measure tax avoidance and financial reporting transparency are respectively effective tax rate and accruals quality. The ...
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Abstract In this paper, the impact of tax avoidance on the transparency of financial reporting of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange is investigated. The indexes that are used to measure tax avoidance and financial reporting transparency are respectively effective tax rate and accruals quality. The sample of study consists of 75 firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2001 to 2010. In order to test the research hypothesis, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is used. The results show that tax planning activity reduce financial reporting transparency. In other words, we can say that tax planning activity is required for masking complex transactions and this negatively affect the information environment of the companies and reduce financial reporting transparency.
Seyyed Safdar Hossini; Ali Eskandari Pour
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 85-100
Abstract
Since many years ago, Iran has faced a macroeconomic problem of inflation. The problem of high inflation rate caused the economic growth of this country to slow down. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges that most of the countries in the world are facing, especially those ...
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Since many years ago, Iran has faced a macroeconomic problem of inflation. The problem of high inflation rate caused the economic growth of this country to slow down. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges that most of the countries in the world are facing, especially those in Asia including Iran. Therefore, forecasting the variable of inflation rate in Iranian economy becomes very important for the government to design effective economic strategies or monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies a model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average to forecast inflation rates in the city of Tehran. Using monthly inflation data from March 2002 to February 2010 in Tehran, we find that ARIMA models can explain the behavior of actual data of inflation rate in Tehran in an acceptable way. Based on the selected model, we forecast the value of monthly inflation rate for six (6) months ahead in the city of Tehran that are out of the sample period (i.e. from March 2010 to August 2010). The observed inflation rate from March 2010 to August 2010 which was published by Tehran Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point inflation rate in Tehran August 2010.
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Volume 3, Issue 10 , January 2004, , Pages 89-108
Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani; Akbare Komijani; Mohammad Hadi Zahedi Vafa; Mohammad Ghaffary Fard
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 97-122
Abstract
In economic studies, fiscal decentralization theories are used to increase productivity and efficiency of government and to improve the balance between different regions and it is mentioned as one of the fundamental tools in the way of transition to a market economy in developing countries. After Islamic ...
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In economic studies, fiscal decentralization theories are used to increase productivity and efficiency of government and to improve the balance between different regions and it is mentioned as one of the fundamental tools in the way of transition to a market economy in developing countries. After Islamic Revolution in Iran and especially after Iran-Iraq war, fiscal and economic decentralization was officially considered as a strategic policy for the development of Iran’s provinces. Firstly, the Provincial Planning Councils were founded and then the provincial revenue-expenditure system was devised to increase the degree of decentralization. But the main concern of economic planners was to investigate the mechanism of which the fiscal decentralization had an impact on economic growth and income distribution. In this paper, by using augmented Solow model, the direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on economic growth is evaluated. After testing for the stationary of our panel of data, it is confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between variables of the model by using Pedroni and Kao tests. After estimating the model by using generalized least squares (GLS) method, it was shown that during the period of 1379-1386, fiscal decentralization (based on two measures of decentralization of national investment expenditures and decentralization of provincial investment expenditures) had a positive effect on economic growth and income distribution in provinces. This effect was in a way that one percent increase in fiscal decentralization would increase economic growth rate up to 0/04 percent. In addition, fiscal decentralization improve income distribution in provinces and indirectly affects economic growth of different regions.
Mohammad Vaez Barzani; Hoshang Shajari; Saeid Samadi; Mohammad Akbari Galangedari
Volume 11, Issue 40 , April 2011, , Pages 97-129
Abstract
Abstract
Dichotomy among different regions is a special characteristic of developing economies including Iranian economy. This dichotomy creates various problems, to remedy these problems, it calls for serious efforts to make harmony and balance ...
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Abstract
Dichotomy among different regions is a special characteristic of developing economies including Iranian economy. This dichotomy creates various problems, to remedy these problems, it calls for serious efforts to make harmony and balance among different regions. Due to shortages of capitals in under developed regions is resulted in vast amount of unused capacities. Therefore, it is suggested to enhance the level of investments by channeling financial resources to these regions. It is further identified that resource allocation ratio to gross domestic production compared even with other Middle East countries is very low. This low ratio is blamed for coexistence of inflationary and recessionary conditions. In this study, we try to determine factors which help to facilitate investment absorption in under developed regions.
The developed and applied model is based on Wai and Wong model. This model has incorporated flexible acceleration pattern and their variable are adjusted from national level to provincial level. The hypothesis is tested for 28 provinces within 1998 -2004 by using pooled data. The results show that different provinces produce different impacts in investment.
Somayeh Khanjari; Masud Homayounifar
Volume 11, Issue 41 , July 2011, , Pages 97-110
Abstract
In this research ,the impacts of nominal shocks (money supply) on real wage in
the industrial sector of Iran has been investigated for period 1981-2008. The model
that we have used in this study is Vector Autoregressive Model.According to the
results of Johansen test, a long run (cointegrated) ...
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In this research ,the impacts of nominal shocks (money supply) on real wage in
the industrial sector of Iran has been investigated for period 1981-2008. The model
that we have used in this study is Vector Autoregressive Model.According to the
results of Johansen test, a long run (cointegrated) relationship between variables in
the industrial sector of Iran is confirmed. After estimation of the model and
calculation of Impulse Response Function and analyzing dynamics in the model, we
will be able to evaluate the response of real wage of industrial sector and the GDP
to the shock of monetary policy variables. On the basis of the results,response of
real wages is negative and GDP is positive, real and the wages of industrial sector
are sticky.
Ali Reza Shakeibaei; Ebad Teimori
Volume 12, Issue 45 , July 2012, , Pages 99-121
Abstract
The US dollar is frequently used as the invoicing currency of international crude oil trading. Hence, the fluctuation and risk in US dollar exchange rate is believed to underlie the volatility of crude oil price and especially risk transmission to its market. When the prospect of the US dollar is not ...
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The US dollar is frequently used as the invoicing currency of international crude oil trading. Hence, the fluctuation and risk in US dollar exchange rate is believed to underlie the volatility of crude oil price and especially risk transmission to its market. When the prospect of the US dollar is not considered promising, a large amount of money will flow to the oil market, thus oil price will be driven up. As a result, some new investment and speculation opportunities can be derived for traders. For existence such relationship, controlling and monitoring the financial risk between these two markets is necessary. This paper applied new risk management tool, VaR methodology, and Granger causality test in risk to examine the risk spillover effect in both crude oil market and US dollar exchange market. Results show that, from the perspective of market risk, interaction between crude oil market and US dollar exchange rate does not seem strong. So the effect of extreme risk spillover between two markets proves quite limited.
Mohsen Renani; Mohammad mirzaie; Shirin Arbabian
Volume 12, Issue 44 , April 2012, , Pages 99-130
Abstract
The tax capability of each region depends not only on people’s ability to pay taxes, but also on government’s ability to receive it. The great portion of a region’s informal sector indicates government’s lack of control over the economic activities in that region. Therefore,with ...
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The tax capability of each region depends not only on people’s ability to pay taxes, but also on government’s ability to receive it. The great portion of a region’s informal sector indicates government’s lack of control over the economic activities in that region. Therefore,with the great share of the informal sector, ability of the government for receiving taxes and as a result the tax potential is reduced. However, part of the informal sector businesses, if supported, can be transferred to the formal sector (upgradable informal sector) and affect the tax potential of the society positively. This paper attempts to assess the effect of the upgradable informal sector of Kohgiluye and Boyer Ahmad Province on the tax potential of the region. An assessment of the lost tax potential in each major economic sector of the province indicates that approximately half of the informal sector’s businesses of the province is upgradable and can be transferred to the formal sector.
Saied sehhat; Vahid Najafi Kalyani; ُSaied Abbasnezhad
Volume 11, Issue 43 , January 2012, , Pages 99-128
Abstract
Motive for the purchase of insurance by individuals is differing among
the firms. Risk aversion is the main motive for the purchase of
insurance by individuals. But, incentive to purchase of insurance by
firms is affected by many factors. Researchers have argued several
theories about the motive ...
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Motive for the purchase of insurance by individuals is differing among
the firms. Risk aversion is the main motive for the purchase of
insurance by individuals. But, incentive to purchase of insurance by
firms is affected by many factors. Researchers have argued several
theories about the motive of corporate for purchasing insurance.
Expected bankruptcy costs, tax consideration, firm size, share
ownership, operational leverage, underinvestment and type of industry
are reasons of corporate demand for insurance. In this study, we have
surveyed effective factors on the demand for property insurance by
using 1387-88 panel data of publicly listed companies operating in
Tehran Stock Exchange. Our results indicate that, consistent with our
hypotheses, large companies with high bankruptcy costs and financial
risks profiles are likely to purchase greater amounts of property
insurance than other companies. We also find that industry type have
significant effect on the purchase of property insurance by corporates.
Additionally, service companies purchase more property insurance
than other companies. Contrary to what we expected, tax incentive,
majority shareholders and underinvestment were not found to be
important determinants of the corporate purchase of property
insurance in the publicly listed companies operating in Tehran Stock
Exchange.
Mohammad Jelodar Mamaghani; Abdosadeh Neisy; Mahdi Goldani; Saeed Rahimian
Abstract
Recent decade was undoubtedly a uniqe one for the banking and financial sector in Iranian economy. Stock market index was breaking records now and then, new credit institutions were established one after another, and different banks were competing in raising their interest rates of deposits. Put this ...
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Recent decade was undoubtedly a uniqe one for the banking and financial sector in Iranian economy. Stock market index was breaking records now and then, new credit institutions were established one after another, and different banks were competing in raising their interest rates of deposits. Put this story alongside an unprecedented bubble in construction sector in years 2006 and 2007, and we can realize that real sectors of the economy, specially industry and agriculture, were in what circumstances. Whatever is our definition of development and whatever is our index for measuring it, we cannot deny the fact that the reliable development is the one which is balanced and can cause growth in all sectors in a homogeneous and proportional way. One of important factors in analysing the situation of these sectors, is the credit ranking and grading that they have been able to get based on their performance from banking and financial system. Therefore, measuring credit risk in these sectors can make a good impression on their performance for policy-makers in each sector and economist involved with the issue. In this paper, we are going to calculate and analyze credit risk in different sectors of Iranian economy, namely “industry”, “agriculture” and “services and housing” sectors by analysing companies accepted in Stock Exchange and OTC markets. Some of the results of this study are high volatility and declining credit risk in industry sector, high and growing volatility in services and housing sector, and low volatility but very high average and declining trend in agriculture sector.
Mohammad-Ali Kafaie; Hossein Nasiri
Volume 10, Issue 39 , January 2011, , Pages 105-138
Mahdiye Akbary Roshan; Abbas i Shaker
Volume 14, Issue 53 , July 2014, , Pages 109-142
Abstract
This study explores the effects of liquidity, government expenditure and market structure on the financial development of stock market. Analysis on seasonal data (2001/2-2011/4) is performed by using Vector Autoregressive model. Results of Granger Causality test show a strong causal relationship from ...
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This study explores the effects of liquidity, government expenditure and market structure on the financial development of stock market. Analysis on seasonal data (2001/2-2011/4) is performed by using Vector Autoregressive model. Results of Granger Causality test show a strong causal relationship from government expenditures, liquidity and market structure on financial development of stock market. Also, the analysis of Impulse-Response function indicates a statistically positive and significant effect of market structure shock on financial development index for 5 terms. However, government expenditures and liquidity growth shock don’t have any statistically significant effect on it. Also, results of variance decomposition show that market structure shocks explain 48 percent of variance in financial development index, and 34 percent of variance of itself, in the long-run. However, liquidity and government expenditures growth don’t show any statistically significant effect.
Mohamad Taghi Ziyaee Bigdeli; Elham Gholami; Farhad Tahmasebi Boldaji
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 109-119
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of economic sanctions on bilateral trade between Iran and 30 trading partners over the period of 1970-2006. To accomplish this Purpose, a generalized gravity model is estimated using panel data estimation method in two situations: with and without sanction. The results ...
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This paper examines the impact of economic sanctions on bilateral trade between Iran and 30 trading partners over the period of 1970-2006. To accomplish this Purpose, a generalized gravity model is estimated using panel data estimation method in two situations: with and without sanction. The results show that sanctions have a small negative impact on bilateral trade. By imposing sanction on Iran by its trade partners, the bilateral trade reduces 0.089 percentage point. So, the negative effects of economic sanctions on Iran's trade with trading partners is negligible.
Mohammad Mahdi Askari,; Mohammad Shirijian; Ali Taheri Fard
Volume 15, Issue 58 , October 2015, , Pages 111-158
Abstract
Production Sharing Contract (PSC), Buyback Contract (BBC) and Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) are considered as three rival contracts in upstream oil & gas field in Iran. So, decision-makers in the process of selecting a suitable contract from the set of three mentioned contracts consider a set of ...
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Production Sharing Contract (PSC), Buyback Contract (BBC) and Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) are considered as three rival contracts in upstream oil & gas field in Iran. So, decision-makers in the process of selecting a suitable contract from the set of three mentioned contracts consider a set of jurisprudential, legal and economic conditions about these contracts. In this paper with the aim of explaining the economic capacity of the three contracts in comparision with each other and based on Static Optimal Methods, we compare these contacts in terms of two important economic indices of optimal investment and oil production and then, we prioritize them. Finally, we have concluded that upstream contracts of Production Sharing, Iran Petroleum Contract and Buyback are ranked in the first, the second and the third place from the perspective of optimal investment level, and from the perspective of optimal oil production level, in case of more participation of private sector and less interference of public ector, these contracts are ranked the first, the second and the third, respectively.
Teymour Mohammadi; Ali Hosein Nabi-Zadeh
Volume 13, Issue 51 , January 2014, , Pages 113-149
Abstract
Volatility of the exchange rate and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important economic variables. Theoretical studies and empirical evidence show that the deviation of the exchange rate from its equilibrium path and its volatility can potentially affect trade (import and export), ...
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Volatility of the exchange rate and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important economic variables. Theoretical studies and empirical evidence show that the deviation of the exchange rate from its equilibrium path and its volatility can potentially affect trade (import and export), production and investment (domestic and foreign). Therefore, this study examines the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and the import of intermediate – capital and consumer goods during the period of 1974 -2011. This study estimates real equilibrium exchange rate by applying behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. Also the volatility of exchange rate is estimated by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) method. Finally the impact of these variables on the import of intermediate–capital and consumer goods are estimated by Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS). This study shows that the real exchange rate in Iran is constantly deviated from its equilibrium path.
