Farshid Jamshidi; Zohreh Fallah Mohssen Khani
Volume 9, Issue 35 , January 2010, , Pages 113-128
Abstract
After forty years period of implementing of households income and expenditure survey in Iran, the results show that in all years the mean of household income is less than their expenditures. While it can be resonable for some years because of economic problems but it's continious in such a long period ...
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After forty years period of implementing of households income and expenditure survey in Iran, the results show that in all years the mean of household income is less than their expenditures. While it can be resonable for some years because of economic problems but it's continious in such a long period show that this difference is not due to economic depression and may be a reflecting of under coverage or under statement of households income in the survey.
In this study, analysing of the results of income and expenditure survey in period 1997-2001 show that this problem is not limited to a special group of household. Therefore, solve that problem the related questions in income section of household income and expenditure survey questionair should be design in a way that can present better coverage of household income.
Hmidreza Vakilifard; Alireza Zareie
Volume 9, Issue 34 , October 2009, , Pages 113-133
Abstract
According to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) actual returns depend on a variety of pervasive economic and financial risk factors ; as well as firm or industry specific influences. The sensitivity of an asset’s returns to unanticipated changes in the perspective risk factors reflects the security’s ...
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According to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) actual returns depend on a variety of pervasive economic and financial risk factors ; as well as firm or industry specific influences. The sensitivity of an asset’s returns to unanticipated changes in the perspective risk factors reflects the security’s measure of systematic risk. In equilibrium, the expected security return is a linear function of the sensitivities of actual security returns to unanticipated changes in the pervasive risk factors. The APT does not specify the number or the nature. Factor analysis of stock returns can be used to determine sensitivities of individual securities to pervasive risk factors without having to identify these risk factors. In this paper, we imperially tested following question; ‘Can we used traditional accounting risk measures from the current period to explain cross-sectional variations of the APT risk measures (sensitivities) in the next period? The empirical
analysis was carried out using a sample include 42 firms from Tehran Stock Exchange and covered 1999-2005. The dependent variables were the APT risk measures, derived from principal factor analysis of monthly stock returns. The set of independent variables was an extensive list of traditional accounting risk measures associated with a firm’s operating and financial activities. The accounting risk measures used in this study represented the firm’s liquidity, dept management, profitability and efficiency, business risk and market value (hybrid ratio), as well as the size of the company. Relying on predictive correlation and multiple regression analysis and application of panel data models, an association was established between independent and dependent variables. the model significance was tested by F statisticand observed significant association in case of accounting variables. Traditional accounting variables some deal can explain cross-sectional variations of the APT risk measures in next period.
Saeedeh Hamidi Alamdari; Hamid Khaloozadeh; Mohammad Rezaei Poor
Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 115-139
Abstract
This paper deals with forecasting the tax revenues of legal entities in Iran. For this
purpose, the structural natures of time series of tax revenues for Iranian legal entities are
detected. Based on the separation among the resources (government and NGOs), the
linearity, nonlinearity, chaotic, and ...
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This paper deals with forecasting the tax revenues of legal entities in Iran. For this
purpose, the structural natures of time series of tax revenues for Iranian legal entities are
detected. Based on the separation among the resources (government and NGOs), the
linearity, nonlinearity, chaotic, and random behaviors are diagnosed via the Lyapunov
exponential analysis. Using Box- Jenkins and Neural Networks models with different
numbers of input, output, hidden layers, learning algorithm, learning rate and etc., the
performance of each model are evaluated during the years of 1381- 1387. Finally, the
optimal forecasting model is proposed as a multi input- multi output neural network
structure with a novel algorithm. The performance of the proposed structure is evaluated
during the years of 1388- 1393 in the forecasting process.
Javid Bahrami; Maryam Farshchi
Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 115-138
Abstract
This paper presents a test of the P* model using Iran quarterly data over the period 1988-2005. The basic formulation of the P* model, which is derived from the quantity theory of money, is manipulated to obtain an equation for the price gap and level of output and velocity gaps. So the P-Star model ...
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This paper presents a test of the P* model using Iran quarterly data over the period 1988-2005. The basic formulation of the P* model, which is derived from the quantity theory of money, is manipulated to obtain an equation for the price gap and level of output and velocity gaps. So the P-Star model implies that inflation is determined by the level of output gap and velocity gap. On the other hand real money gap can either be used instead of price gap, as the other approach. Estimation of the dynamic relation between the inflation rate and price gap are significant and price gap’s share is about 50 percent in inflation process.
Hassan Eyd Mohammadzadeh; Javad Rezaee; Marjan Faghih Nasiri; Mohammad Reza Tavakoli Baghdad Abad
Volume 10, Issue 36 , April 2010, , Pages 115-135
Abstract
In this paper, we have evaluated the efficieny of selected countries in the field of knowledge economics by using mathematical programming model. Currently, for efficiency evaluation two methods are being used: 1) Parametric method 2) Nonparametric method.
In this paper, we are using the ...
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In this paper, we have evaluated the efficieny of selected countries in the field of knowledge economics by using mathematical programming model. Currently, for efficiency evaluation two methods are being used: 1) Parametric method 2) Nonparametric method.
In this paper, we are using the Nonparametric method that is based on mathematical programming model to categorize Iran and selected countries according to knowledge economics efficiency. The main advantage of data development analysis in comparison with other methods (for efficiency evaluation) is its evaluating units that have several inputs and outputs.
In this paper, according to output and input during 2005, we evaluated the efficiency of knowledge economics according to two assumptions constant return to scale and diminishing return to scale.
The resoult of this research shows that according to the first assumption; Turkey, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria and Kuwait have the most efficiency in comparison with Azarbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan and United Arab Emirates. and the efficiency average based on this assumption is 72.9 percent. According to the second assumption; Azarbaijan and Uzbakestan join to the efficient countries and their efficiency average base on this assumption is %75.
Finally, according to the resoults of this research (if we consider Turkey as a pattern), efficient countries must increase their efficiency by following Turkey’s performance.
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Volume 2, Issue 4 , April 2002, , Pages 115-142
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Volume 2, Issue 5 , July 2002, , Pages 115-134
AZAM ahmadian
Abstract
The aim of this study is assessment of the combination of asset and liability on the banking supervision ratings. In this paper Camels Rating model is used for banking supervision rating. Also, by using financial statements of Iranian bank for the period 2006-2014 and ordinal regression method, we have ...
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The aim of this study is assessment of the combination of asset and liability on the banking supervision ratings. In this paper Camels Rating model is used for banking supervision rating. Also, by using financial statements of Iranian bank for the period 2006-2014 and ordinal regression method, we have investigated the effect of composition of the portfolio's assets and liabilities on banks’ ratings. The results of model validity, significance of regression and the prediction power tests show that the model is correct and it is suitability for future analysis and the predictive power of the model is 89 percent. The results show that the riskier the asset portfolio, the less likely the banks to be ranked higher in future periods and the more the probability of losing banks’ ratings in future periods. In addition, the more the share of stable sources in banks’ portfolio of liabilities, the higher the probability of having better ratings and the less the probability of losing banks’ ratings in future periods.
Fereshteh Mohammadyan; Hamid Amadeh; Abbas Shakeri
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 117-150
Abstract
This article explains the differences in size and growth of governments over time. We first divide the theories of government size into three theories relating to demand side, supply side and other theories. Then these theories are empirically tested by a conceptual model for 103 countries and selected ...
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This article explains the differences in size and growth of governments over time. We first divide the theories of government size into three theories relating to demand side, supply side and other theories. Then these theories are empirically tested by a conceptual model for 103 countries and selected groups of countries (Muslim and socialist countries, democracies, authoritarian countries and federal countries) during the period of 1990 to 2010. The results show that among the demand side variables, per capita income, inequality and urbanization, respectively with negative, positive and positive signs, have a significant effect on the size of government. In the case of supply side variabels, indirect taxes have a significant positive effect on the size of government. Concerning other factors (factors other than the supply and demand side variables), the three variables that are the ratio of aging population, the degree of openness of the economy and the rate of female participation in the labor market have a significant positive effect on government size. The results also show that political structure, ideological structure, and presence or absence of centralization not only affect the government size but also the effect of economic variables is different when these structural factors change.
Esmail Abounori; Saeed Karimi Potanlar; Mohammad Reza Mardani
Volume 10, Issue 38 , October 2010, , Pages 117-143
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Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 117-128
Mir Hossein Mousavi; Ebrahim Rezaie; Alireza Hirad
Volume 7, Issue 24 , April 2007, , Pages 117-155
Abstract
The functional form of the consumer allocation models should be to satisfy theoretical derived from the consumer demand theory and must be able to explain the behavior of the consumer. In the first part of this paper, we have explained some of the theoretical characteristics of the consumer demand theory. ...
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The functional form of the consumer allocation models should be to satisfy theoretical derived from the consumer demand theory and must be able to explain the behavior of the consumer. In the first part of this paper, we have explained some of the theoretical characteristics of the consumer demand theory. At the second part of this paper, an empirical study has taken place by using consumption expenditures data of the urban households in West Azerbaijan province during the period 1979-2003. The results show that restricted and unrestricted Rotterdam demand system provide homogenous restriction but unrestricted Rotterdam demand system provide symmetry restriction and no restricted Rotterdam demand system.
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Volume 4, Issue 12 , April 2004, , Pages 117-136
Seyed Komail Tayebi; Mohammad Vaez Barzani; Simin Akbari Dehbaghi
Volume 9, Issue 32 , April 2009, , Pages 119-145
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to investigate the possibility of a regional block implementation including Iran and other Middle East countries, and also it’s effect on trade relation and income convergence among members. Accordingly, a trade gravity model is specified in which economic structures ...
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The main objective of this paper is to investigate the possibility of a regional block implementation including Iran and other Middle East countries, and also it’s effect on trade relation and income convergence among members. Accordingly, a trade gravity model is specified in which economic structures of all trading partners and their social and cultural relations as well as integration and geographical distance explain trade flows and income convergence. We, therefore, use economic datas of 12 Iran’s trading partners in the region over 1993-2003 to estimate the models (both trade and convergence) by the panel data procedure.
The empirical results indicate that trade integration between Iran and Middle East countries has a positive and significant effect on their trade relations, whereas trade expansion cannot convergence their incomes significantly.
Ali Asghar Esfandiari; Samireh Moghadas Hosseynzadeh; Majid Delavari
Volume 8, Issue 28 , April 2008, , Pages 119-146
Abstract
In our country, forming Free zones and felling them develop are considered as a very effective element in opportunites and developing of exports, promoting employment, getting the domestic and foreign investments, increasing the general income and tourism, improving the economic stand of the country ...
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In our country, forming Free zones and felling them develop are considered as a very effective element in opportunites and developing of exports, promoting employment, getting the domestic and foreign investments, increasing the general income and tourism, improving the economic stand of the country and also complying with a competitive economy.
Considering the economic operations of three free zones (Kish, Qeshm, Chabahar) during 1994 to 2005 shows that a major part of revenues goes from exporting goods from Qeshm and revenues from tourism in Kish. Major parts of the constructions and fundamental facilities have been expensed in Kish and this region is very important in getting the domestic and foreign investment considering to the other parts of the
country. The operations of Chabahar zone in the case of above mentioned elements has been done weakly because of lacking the constructions and fundamental facilities and also deprivation of the region, so this zone could not access to the main goal which is transit of goods. As a whole, the roles of the above mentioned elements in Iran’s economy are very inconsiderable and it shows that these zones have been operated weakly during these years.
In econometric chapter is determining the effective factors on export expansion and cultivation revenue in foreign exchange. However these factors are acquired with use of panel data of three zones Kish, Qeshm and Chabahar during 1994 to 2005. The issue of this test, illustrates that increasing in variable of current cost and civil cost with three historical delay foreign and domestic investment and revenues has a significant positive effect on export expansion and cultivation revenue in foreign exchange of three free zones. This issue is most helpful to cultivate of revenue in foreign exchange of this places.
Zahra Ziya’i; parisa mohajeri; Ali Nasiri Aghdam
Abstract
In real world, taxpayers have private information of which tax agencies are either completely or partly not aware of. This issue gives rise to the so-called asymmetric information problem, seriously preventing tax laws from being justly and efficiently enforced. Asymmetry of information motivates taxpayer ...
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In real world, taxpayers have private information of which tax agencies are either completely or partly not aware of. This issue gives rise to the so-called asymmetric information problem, seriously preventing tax laws from being justly and efficiently enforced. Asymmetry of information motivates taxpayer towards falsifying or concealing information, trying to enjoy benefits of failure to pay taxes (moral hazard); furthermore, by granting licenses to bad economic operators for operating as authorized economic operators, law-abiding companies may leave licensed and authorized market (adverse selection). It is obvious that, information sharing and availability of databases containing taxpayers’ information can help governments in recognizing and collecting taxes in a justly and fair manner. In this paper, using statistics from 92 countries during 2006 – 2012 (in the form of panel data), we have studied the effects of information sharing variables on tax-to-GDP ratio. The findings indicate that, information sharing has a positive, yet statistically insignificant, effect on the ratio, which is in agreement with theoretical foundations.
Gholamhossein Mahdavi; Seyyed Mehdi Hosseini Azan Akhari
Volume 8, Issue 31 , January 2009, , Pages 121-146
Abstract
In this research we are to investigate the existence of relationship between refined economic value added and usual measurements of performance such as earnings per share and price to earning ratio.
The results show that there is no significant relation between refined economic value added and the dependent ...
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In this research we are to investigate the existence of relationship between refined economic value added and usual measurements of performance such as earnings per share and price to earning ratio.
The results show that there is no significant relation between refined economic value added and the dependent variables. Although the existence of mentioned correlation has not proved but it does not mean that there is no relation between variables. The percent of correlation coefficients and calculated R-squared show that there is a weak relation between refined economic value added and usual measurements of performance such as earning per share and price to earning ratio. Nevertheless the relation is more significant for price to earning ratio than earning per share.
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Volume 1, Issue 2 , October 2001, , Pages 121-134
Mir Hossein Mousavi; Fatemeh Sorkhe-Dehi
Volume 13, Issue 50 , October 2013, , Pages 123-141
Abstract
Oil revenues play an important role in the political economy of Iran. In this study we analyze the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on government expenditures and investment for the period of 1978-2008. We Apply the VAR model and impulse response functions (IRFs). The main result shows that oil ...
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Oil revenues play an important role in the political economy of Iran. In this study we analyze the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on government expenditures and investment for the period of 1978-2008. We Apply the VAR model and impulse response functions (IRFs). The main result shows that oil shocks have asymmetric effects. It means that the effect of negative shocks on government expenditures and investment is larger than positive shocks. The results show that oil shocks have asymmetric effect on government expenditures and confirm the existence of Dutch-Disease and high dependency to oil revenues in Iranian economy. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the revenues of oil sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts.
Mohammad Raza Monjazeb; Hossein Mohamadi; Abbas Hosseini Sohi
Volume 6, Issue 22 , October 2006, , Pages 123-160
Abstract
In this article with an introduction to market economy versus planned economy, we review different economic doctrines by looking at their roles and efficiency of each one of them to show that the selection and allocation of resources is according to economic ...
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In this article with an introduction to market economy versus planned economy, we review different economic doctrines by looking at their roles and efficiency of each one of them to show that the selection and allocation of resources is according to economic efficiency, culture, scarcity to reachness of resources and etc. Then we review the public companies performance and privatization in Iran, and according to data for Iran (1959-2002), we estimate the production- investment elasticity by a growth model and compare them with together. The result of this article shows that there is found a positive effect of private and governmental investment on production growth by statistical methods and tests. Also there is no difference between these two variables. So without structural reforms, we can not change the growth trend in Iran.
reza akhbary; hamid amadeh
Volume 15, Issue 59 , January 2016, , Pages 125-160
Abstract
GDP growth and unemployment rate are both important factors that characterize economies. Okun (1962) examined data about GDP and unemployment rate and found that there was a negative relationship between these two variables. After that, economists reexamined this relationship and presented it in different ...
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GDP growth and unemployment rate are both important factors that characterize economies. Okun (1962) examined data about GDP and unemployment rate and found that there was a negative relationship between these two variables. After that, economists reexamined this relationship and presented it in different forms such as difference version, gap version and production function form. Because of much debate that is done in recent years regarding the labour market, in this study with the aim of presenting scientific analysis of current conditions in Iranian economy, we used pesaran et al (2001) approach to estimate long-run and short-run Okun coefficients in an ARDL model and the data is for the period of 1974-2011. We found that there is long run relationship between variables in three models that we used. The results show that to reduse the unemployment rate to less than %10, GDP growth rate must be over %10. These results points to deterioration of current economic conditions. At the end, Analysis of Granger causality showed that there are unidirectional causality relationships in all three forms of Okun’s law.
Seyyed Shamseddin Hosseini; Mohammad Ebrahim Ain Alian; Amir Reza Soori
Volume 9, Issue 33 , July 2009, , Pages 125-151
Abstract
Post Bank as one of the financial institution has had successful experience in many countries. As a result, the Post Bank Company has been established in 1996 aiming of developing financial services especially in rural region. Now after passing a decade of Post Bank activities in the form of independent ...
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Post Bank as one of the financial institution has had successful experience in many countries. As a result, the Post Bank Company has been established in 1996 aiming of developing financial services especially in rural region. Now after passing a decade of Post Bank activities in the form of independent headquarters in provinces, assessing their activities is possible by the criterion such as efficiency which is the subject of this paper.
In this paper, efficiency and effecting factors on it has been determined for 28 independent headquarters of Iran’s Post Bank in duration of 1999-2005 form using Stochastic Frontier Functions (SFA) and Logarithmic - Linear of cost function. Result of this study by model (1) - assessing efficiency- shows that efficiency of Iran’s Post Bank is 60%. The provinces
of Tehran and Charmahal va Bakhtiyari have had minimum and maximum efficiency respectively. Also, headquarters of Post Bank in the less developed region like Charmahal va Bakhtiyari and Kohkiluye va Boyer Ahmad, comparing with more headquarters in the developed provinces like Tehran and Khorasan, had been more efficient.
Meanwhile based on the result of model (2)- assessing the Effecting factors on efficiency- efficiency of headquarters has inverse relationship with the size of Post Bank (total asset), number of Employee, number of branch, and time, has direct relationship with total income of Post Bank.
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Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2002, , Pages 125-134
Ali Falahati; Saeed Solaymani
Volume 8, Issue 30 , October 2008, , Pages 125-152
Abstract
With regard to globalization process which lies in front of developing countries, finding a trade commercial pattern for countries in the world trade with a suitable trade partners and those countries which don’t want to be left behind in the world trade, is a necessary and important task. In this ...
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With regard to globalization process which lies in front of developing countries, finding a trade commercial pattern for countries in the world trade with a suitable trade partners and those countries which don’t want to be left behind in the world trade, is a necessary and important task. In this study the trade pattern of intra industry and inter industry of Iran in the year 2003 has been investigated with the gravity model. The results show that Iran in the iron and iron alloys sector and non alcoholic beverages and tobacco is functioning with intra-industry and differentiated product pattern, a fact which shows the stability of intra industry pattern of Iran in the regional and global level in these sectors.
Seyed Aziz Arman; Vahid Kafili; Hassan Farazmand; Hossein Moltafet
Abstract
To reduce crime, it is necessary to study the reasons of criminal behavior. A critical viewpoint in investigating environmental conditions of committing crime is economic aspects of environment. In this research the impact of economic factors on crime in Iranian provenances during years 2000-2013 has ...
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To reduce crime, it is necessary to study the reasons of criminal behavior. A critical viewpoint in investigating environmental conditions of committing crime is economic aspects of environment. In this research the impact of economic factors on crime in Iranian provenances during years 2000-2013 has been studied. To do this, panel smooth transition method (PSTR) has been used. With Inflation as a transition variable, PSTR results show existence of two regimes and a threshold value indicate that in the first regime (low level of inflation), real income per capita doesn't have a signification impact on crime, however, in the second regime (high level of inflation), the impact of real income per capita on crime is negative and signification. In low level of inflation, the impact of income inequality on crime is positive and signification but in high levels of inflation, this variable has no impact on crime. In low level of inflation, industrialization has an insignificant impact but its impact in high level of inflation is positive and signification. Unemployment in both regimes has significant and positive impact in crime.
