Javad Taherpoor; Fateme Rajabi; Hojjatollah Mirzaei; Habib Soheili
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on Iran’s labor market. To do so, we analyzed changes in key indicators of the labor market in the first four months of the outbreak. In addition, the dynamic effects of COVID-19 are estimated using a vector ...
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The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on Iran’s labor market. To do so, we analyzed changes in key indicators of the labor market in the first four months of the outbreak. In addition, the dynamic effects of COVID-19 are estimated using a vector autoregression model (VAR). Results show that spread of the pandemic has led to an increase innumber of discouraged workers. The participation rate has fallen by 3.7 percentage points, compared to the same period last year. Considering seasonal variations in the labor market, nearly 1.5 million people have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus contagion. Also, around 750 thousand people applied for unemployment benefits which are 60 percent of the claims filed by former service sector employees. The results indicate that during the study period, the increase in confirmed cases of infections increased the number of jobless claims and the number of unemployed persons. Our findings confirm rapid and substantial changes in the Iranian labor market caused by the coronavirus and highlight the necessity of improving the social welfare system for supporting vulnerable groups in the current crisis and future crises. Supporting businesses, especially credit, insurance, etc., can also reduce the problems of businesses and reduce the number of unemployed.
Majid Babaie; Hossein Tavakolian; abbas shakeri
Abstract
First studies in inflation forecasting were mostly based on traditional Philips curve in which the relation between inflation and unemployment is studied. However, after several decades and especially after the Lucas criticism, Philips curve faced great takeovers. The new Philips curve ties real and ...
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First studies in inflation forecasting were mostly based on traditional Philips curve in which the relation between inflation and unemployment is studied. However, after several decades and especially after the Lucas criticism, Philips curve faced great takeovers. The new Philips curve ties real and expected inflation, not to unemployment rate but to a scale of the marginal cost. Since in the original form of Philips curve, marginal cost stimulates inflation, it is difficult to formulate models that are effective in predicting inflation. Therefore, using TVP-DMA model, which has the ability to fix these deficiencies, we try to improve predictability of inflation in Iranian economy. An independent variable in conventional models can be either significant or insignificant while in TVP-DMA model, it may be significant during a period of time and insignificant in rest of the times. Therefore, this approach lets us to determine the periods in which an independent variable is significant and when it is not. In this study, we use seasonal data during the period 1991-2015. The results based on outputs of the TVP, DMS, and DMA models show that, out of 100 time periods under study, the liquidity growth rate in 19, economic growth rate in 7, unemployment in 8, exchange rate growth in 31, changes in the bank deposit rate in 14, oil revenues growth rate in 15, inflation uncertainty in 14 and the budget deficit growth rate in 4 periods have significant effect on inflation. Based on these results, it can be stated that exchange rate growth, liquidity growth and oil revenues growth rate are the most important indicators influencing inflation rate in Iran.
Morteza Khorsandi; Nastaran Alibabaie
Abstract
Since the unemployment and inflation are two target variables of economic policies and in many cases policy-makers have to sacrifice one for another, the question arises that what is the preferences of society between these two targets. The appropriate answer can be obtained when the effect of each variable ...
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Since the unemployment and inflation are two target variables of economic policies and in many cases policy-makers have to sacrifice one for another, the question arises that what is the preferences of society between these two targets. The appropriate answer can be obtained when the effect of each variable on welfare is estimated and compared with each other. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of unemployment and inflation on happiness as an index of welfare is estimated. This estimation is done with two panel data samples. The first sample consist of 146 countries that happiness index is calculated for them and the second sample only includes Iran and its neighbors. The results show that in both cases unemployment has more effect on reducing happiness. In the sample of Iran and its neighboring countries, the absolute value of unemployment coefficient is 2.4 times higher than that of inflation. Accordingly, it can be concluded that in construction of social loss functions and also misery indices the weight of unemployment must be greater than inflation and the proposed relative weight for Iran is 2.4.
Mohamad Reza Sadi; Mir Housain Mousavi
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 177-198
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to study the factors and policies that affect employment in Iranian economy. To accomplish this purpose, ARDL dynamic model is applied to annual data during 1974-2007. By this method, the labor force demand in Iranian economy is estimated. The results show that in the short-run, ...
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The aim of this paper is to study the factors and policies that affect employment in Iranian economy. To accomplish this purpose, ARDL dynamic model is applied to annual data during 1974-2007. By this method, the labor force demand in Iranian economy is estimated. The results show that in the short-run, employment can increase by using the banking facilities and stimulating production. It is shown that in the long-run, the most important factor that can result in job creation is investment and the reason is that investment leads to economic growth and in this paper, it can be the leading factor of job creation. The size of the coefficients corresponding to employment in previous periods indicate low flexibility of labor market In Iranian economy and it is required to use proper policies and solutions to increase labor market flexibility in Iranian economy.
