Economics Research

Abstract Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is one of these results. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of determinants of inflation in Iranian economy and forecasting inflation, instead of using FAVAR model with constant coefficients, we have employed TVP-FAVAR models and inflation has been modeled. In this model, the variables of GDP growth, growth of the monetary base, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates are considered as the main variables, and to estimate the non-observable variables of speculation section return, variables in the overall classification are modeled. Based on the results, the relationship between the variables change over time and conditions prevailing in the economy is effective on the influence of model variables on each other.
 

Abstract In recent decades and especially in developing countries, the trade of services has faced an increasing trend. The export of services can improve trade balance, economic growth, employment as well as development of merchandise sector. This paper uses a descriptive and analytical approach and intends to evaluate performance and factors affecting the total export of services and particularly the export of technical and engineering services in OIC selected countries by applying panel data method. The results of estimating the performance indicators and comparative advantage of technical and engineering services export indicate that between years 1994 to 2010, Iran's position among these countries has improved. In our analysis, factors such as GDP per capita, real effective exchange rates, inflow of foreign investments, communication infrastructures and also being member of two trade blocs -ECO and D8- have significant and positive effect on the total export of services and also the export of engineering services. Thus, it is necessity for governmental institutions and private sector in Iran to plan and prepare to further develop the export of services.

Abstract Abstract           Technological evolutions as one of basic resources of productivity growth plays a significant role in economic growth. Therefore, after world war ІІ, the determination of measure and bias of technological change has been subject of many research efforts.            In this paper we have studied on the trend and bias of technological change in Iran’s industry by econometric approach from 1971 to 2008. We estimated a translog cost function in addition to equations system of cost share, using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) approach. The results show that the rate of technological change has been -1.10 percent during the study years. It means that there is a decline in rate of cost of productive units over time. Furthermore, the results indicate that technological change has been biased towards the use of more energy and material, while labor and capital have been saved.

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