Economics Research

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we study inflation dynamics and then examine the relation of inflation and inflation uncertainty. At first, for filtering of predictable term of inflation series, we used time series model. In this way, some test like ADF, PP, KPSS were also used.  The results show that integration of inflation series is neither one nor zero. Then we examine the hypothesis of fractional integration that means long memory of inflation. With applying ARFIMA model, we show that inflation has fractional integration with degree of 0.4 that is implying that Iran’s inflation has long memory and then every shock to this variable remain long run. In the next stage, we used ARFIMA residual for test GARCH model then that was used as inflation uncertainty. With granger causality test we find that the causality between inflation and uncertainty is bilateral.

Abstract When a business cycle enters to new phase is more important. Because the policies usually affect economy with some internal and external delays. It is possible that a policy designed on recession period affect economy in expansionary phase. For this reason it is very important to identify business cycle turning points in real time. These points occur on future and are expected factors, then must to be forecasted. In this paper we estimated business cycle turning points in Iran economy using advanced statistic methods: such as mixed provident indicators and Markow chains.

Abstract In this article, the effects  of  not  using DST (Daylight Saving Time), on  electricity consumption  in  Tehran  Electricity  Region  are  examined and  the corresponding monetary cost is evaluated. The study uses an econometric model based on Intervention Analysis. The data includes the hourly consumption of electricity during two months of the year (Farvardin and Ordibehesht 1384-1385, 21^th March up to May 2006 and 21^th March up to 21^th May 2007). Results indicate that the consumption increases during peak hours of the noon and night is significant, while the consumption decreases in some other hours is not significant.  Both the load and its duration in the peak, have increased and energy use has experienced an increase of 227MWh. Energy use, in addition to its normal annual growth, has grown and created a huge social cost, not to mention the other social damages such as traffic fatalities, environmental costs and … .

Abstract The purpose of this article is to examine the effects of exchange rate unification on macroeconomic variables (inflation, unemployment and output) by applying a Vector Autoregression model to Iran’s economy. Variables are GDP, Price level, Unemployment and exchange rate and data belongs to the priod 1961-2001. We can Summerize the results of this research as follows: 1)  Official exchange rate is significantly correlated with consumer price index, so that exchange rate shocks resulting from Unification positively affects price level within three periods. 2)  Official exchange rate is not significantly correlated with the real GDP. 3)  Official exchange rate is not significantly correlated with the unemployment rate.

Abstract In this paper, we designed the optimal trajectory of state and control variables of the Iran's economy. The scope of our research has been the second, the third and the forth economic Five-Year Development Plans. First, we have determined the optimal values of the variables using our previously designed macroeconomic model in the context of Optimal Control Theory. The primary results indicate the fact that some of planned targets of the values of economic variables are in contradiction to each other, so they are not accessible. Then, we introduced different scenarios to analyze the sensitivity of the targets to the values of policy variables. One of the most important scenarios for supplying money in the Iran's economy is choosing a constant growth rate by a prudent policy decision.