Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 MA in Economics, University of Mazandaran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Mazandaran

Abstract

Macroeconomic vulnerability is a concept used to assess the exposure of countries against foreign shocks and probability of economic crises. Today, this concept is commonly used in developing and developed countries in the forms of economic vulnerability and economic strength indices. The aim of this study is to introduce and explain the theoretical basis of the economic vulnerability index to reach a suitable structure for evaluating this index in Iran and other middle-income countries. The results of this study show that the situation of Iran in terms of this indicator among the 8 countries surveyed in the period between 1995 and 2012 was not satisfactory, in a way that the rank of Iran in most of this period (13 years) was higher than the average 8 countries. Also, the trend of this indicator is positive and rising for Iran in this period. Analysis of Economic factors affecting vulnerability show that in this period, weakness of export diversification was the most important item that negatively affected the level of economic vulnerability in Iran in comparison with other selected countries.

Keywords

 براتی، محمد‌علی (۱۳۸۷)،بررسی شاخص‌های بی‌ثباتی و آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی در ایران (یک رویکرد تجربی)، تهران: موسسه تحقیقاتی تدبیر اقتصاد‏‫.
طباطبایی یزدی، رویا و فرزانه مافی (۱۳۸۶)، «وضعیت اقتصادی و اجتماعی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در مقایسه با برخی از کشورهای منطقه آسیای‌ جنوب غربی طی دهه گذشته»، مرکز تحقیقات استراتژیک.
ﻗﻨﺪﻫﺎری، زﻫﺮا، بتول رﻓﻌﺖ و مصطفی ﻋﻤﺎدزاده (۱۳۹۲)، «ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ اﺛﺮ ﺑﺎز ﺑﻮدن ﺗﺠﺎری و ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺮ اﻧﺪازه دوﻟﺖ در ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺒﯽ از ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی ﻋﻀﻮ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﮐﻨﻔﺮاﻧﺲ اﺳﻼﻣﯽ»، دوفصلنامه علمی- تخصصی اقتصاد توسعه و برنامه‌ریزی، ۴۵(۲).
Alwang, J., Siegel, P. B.  and S.L. Jorgensen (2001), “Vulnerability: A View From Different”, The World Bank, Working Paper, No, 23304
Baritto, F. (2008), “Disasters, Vulnerability and Resilience from a Macro-Economic Perspective: Lessons from the Empirical Evidence”, Background paper for the 2009 ISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.
Briguglio, L. and W. Galea (2003), “Updating and Augmenting the Economic Vulnerability Index”, Occasional Paper by the Islands and Small States Institute of the University of Malta. Valletta, Islands and Small States Institute of the University of Malta.
Briguglio, L. (1995), “Small Island Developing States and their Economic Vulnerabilities”, World development, 23(9), 1615-1632.
Briguglio, L. (1997), “Alternative economic vulnerability indices for developing countries”, New York, NY, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., and S. Vella (2009), “Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements”, Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 229-247.
Cordina, G. (2004), “Economic Vulnerability and Economic Growth: Some Results from a Neo-classical Growth Modelling Approach”, Journal of Economic Development, 29(2), 21-39
Patrick, G. (2007), “EVI and its Use. Design of an Economic Vulnerability Index and its Use for International Development Policy”, CERDI, No. 200714.
Guillaumont, P. (2010), “Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries”, The Journal of Development Studies, 46(5), 828-854.
IMF (1998), Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability. in IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook. Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators.Washington, DC, IMF.
Kaminsky, G. L., Lizondo, S. and Reinhart, C. M. (1998), “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, Staff Papers”, 45(1). Washington, DC, IMF.
Ocampo, J. A. (2008), “Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Reform: Managing Pro-cyclical Capital Flows”, Columbia University Initiative for Policy Dialogue http://www. bot. or. th/English/EconomicConditions/Semina/Documents/08_Paper_Ocampo. pdf.
Röhn, O., Sánchez, A. C., Hermansen, M., and M. Rasmussen (2015), “Economic Resilience: A new set of Vulnerability Indicators for OECD Countries”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1249.
Seth, A., and A. Ragab (2012), “Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Developing Countries: Approaches and Issues” (No. 94). Working Paper, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
Spratt, S. and M. Bernini (2010), “Measuring Economic Resilience and Vulnerability: Towards an International Index”, Paper Presented at the ‘Second Annual ESRC Development Economics Conference’, Manchester, January 2010.
Singh, A. (2003), “Capital Account Liberalization, Free Long-term Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Economic Development”, Eastern Economic Journal, 29(2), 191-216.
United Nations (1994),“Report of the Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States”, Bridgetown, Barbados, Global Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States.