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Volume 1, Issue 2 , October 2001, , Pages 135-158
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Volume 2, Issue 5 , July 2002, , Pages 135-168
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Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2002, , Pages 135-170
Teymour Mohammadi; Reza Teleblou
Volume 10, Issue 36 , April 2010, , Pages 137-170
Abstract
In this paper, we study inflation dynamics and then examine the relation of inflation and inflation uncertainty. At first, for filtering of predictable term of inflation series, we used time series model. In this way, some test like ADF, PP, KPSS were also used.
The results show that integration ...
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In this paper, we study inflation dynamics and then examine the relation of inflation and inflation uncertainty. At first, for filtering of predictable term of inflation series, we used time series model. In this way, some test like ADF, PP, KPSS were also used.
The results show that integration of inflation series is neither one nor zero. Then we examine the hypothesis of fractional integration that means long memory of inflation. With applying ARFIMA model, we show that inflation has fractional integration with degree of 0.4 that is implying that Iran’s inflation has long memory and then every shock to this variable remain long run.
In the next stage, we used ARFIMA residual for test GARCH model then that was used as inflation uncertainty. With granger causality test we find that the causality between inflation and uncertainty is bilateral.
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Volume 4, Issue 12 , April 2004, , Pages 137-167
Vahid Mehrbani
Abstract
While the human capital theory introduces higher education as a factor of productivity enhancement of labor force, but, by contrast, the filter theory denies this idea. The former contends that education as a whole phenomenon is an investment in human beings that enhances their productivity. On the other ...
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While the human capital theory introduces higher education as a factor of productivity enhancement of labor force, but, by contrast, the filter theory denies this idea. The former contends that education as a whole phenomenon is an investment in human beings that enhances their productivity. On the other hand, the latter claims that education exclusively in higher levels has no impact on labor productivity because higher education is irrelevant to productive potency. The aim of this paper is to investigate that challenge. Since the industry sector is the most important sector of any economy and its reliance on university graduates is very high, the viewpoint of two opponent theories is tested by using the data on Iranian industries in period 2003-2011. Findings suggest that proportional increase of university graduates leads to higher levels of productivity. This observation is specifically perceived in BA (BS) and MA (MS) levels but not in PhD level.
Hosein Sadeghi soghdel; Abbas Assari Arani; Vahid Shaghaghi Shahri
Volume 10, Issue 39 , January 2011, , Pages 139-174
Abbas Arabmazar; Seyyed Yahya Mousavi
Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 139-165
Abstract
According to the definition, efficiency is the ratio of outputs of an organization to its inputs for which there are parametric and non-parametric ways of calculation. In non-parametric method which forms the base of calculations in this research, efficiency is evaluated through a series of mathematical ...
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According to the definition, efficiency is the ratio of outputs of an organization to its inputs for which there are parametric and non-parametric ways of calculation. In non-parametric method which forms the base of calculations in this research, efficiency is evaluated through a series of mathematical optimizations. In this research tax organization of each province is considered as a decision maker unit which posesses several inputs and outputs. In order to compare the efficiency of different provinces of the country, they are divided into two groups on the basis of their stages of development and their shares in total tax payments. Efficiency of tax organizations of provinces is measured by using Data Envelopment Analysis procedure (DEA), and the results show that in a period of 2005-2006, there has been an Average efficiency of 73% for developed provinces and 89.5 % for less developed provinces. Regarding the figures related to the efficiency of provinces, we consider the difference between efficiency of provinces and efficiency of 100%, as their shortcoming in tax
capacity achievement. In other words, efficiency of provinces shows that they are from legal potential capacity of tax collection. So, legal tax potential of provinces are calculated on the basis of above mentioned figures.
Farhad Hakimi
Volume 13, Issue 50 , October 2013, , Pages 141-154
Abstract
The Islamic Republic of Iran amended tax law in 2001. The present study investigates the issue that whether amending tax law was effective on increasing investment industrial sector of Iran or not? Therefore, by referring to Tehran Stock Exchange Organization as representative of industrial sector in ...
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The Islamic Republic of Iran amended tax law in 2001. The present study investigates the issue that whether amending tax law was effective on increasing investment industrial sector of Iran or not? Therefore, by referring to Tehran Stock Exchange Organization as representative of industrial sector in Iran and gathering required financial information from 2005 to 2009, we use F statistics and Hausman test and conclude that regardless of the conditions before amending tax law and introducing tax exemptions at manufacturing sector, enacting the new law does not play key role for determining investment rate and other factors such as banking interest rate, growth rate for housing prices and etc. are more important. Thus, based on fluctuations at economic factor and stability strategy for accumulating tax factors, it is recommended to conduct financial policies of Iran through running a stabilization period and complementary studies.
Abolfazl Ghiasvand; Reyhane Movagharisadat Mahalle
Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 141-159
Abstract
The main reason for focusing on value added tax (VAT) is expanding tax base and
increasing tax revenues. Regarding the implementation of VAT Act initiated in October
2008, this paper attempts to estimate tax revenue resulting from this Act, which is based on
input ! output table and production method.
Based ...
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The main reason for focusing on value added tax (VAT) is expanding tax base and
increasing tax revenues. Regarding the implementation of VAT Act initiated in October
2008, this paper attempts to estimate tax revenue resulting from this Act, which is based on
input ! output table and production method.
Based on the results of this research, VAT base according to the Act is about 44 percent of
GDP; with regard to the rate of 1/5 percent, potential VAT revenue will be 0/67 percent of
GDP.
Results of this study show that the full implementation of VAT act with rate of 1/5
percent will not have significant effect on reducing the operating budget deficit. The VAT
rate should be increased in order to makeup such a deficit.
Abdolsadeh Neisy; Moslem Peymany
Volume 14, Issue 53 , July 2014, , Pages 143-166
Abstract
In this study, overall index of Tehran Stock Exchange is modeled by Heston stochastic differential equations and its performance is measured. To do this, after a brief introduction of stochastic differential equations, Heston model is explained in more detail and parameters of this model based on the ...
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In this study, overall index of Tehran Stock Exchange is modeled by Heston stochastic differential equations and its performance is measured. To do this, after a brief introduction of stochastic differential equations, Heston model is explained in more detail and parameters of this model based on the data of Tehran Stock Exchange overall index is estimated. In this way, Fokker-Plank theorem is used to find probability distribution function of Heston model and Gauss-Hermit method is used to estimate an indefinite integral. Finally we calculate value at risk of Tehran Stock Exchange overall index by Monte Carlo methods based on Heston model and we compare this with Geometric Brownian model as a widely used model by means of back test approach. These tests show superior performance of Heston model.
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Volume 2, Issue 4 , April 2002, , Pages 143-164
Somayeh Shahhosseini; Ali Faridzad; Ali Faridzad
Abstract
Some researchers consider trade liberalization as a factor for increasing the quality of the environment. However, others argue that trade liberalization leads to some countries specialize in the production of pollution-intensive, energy-intensive or capital-intensive goods and therefore the quality ...
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Some researchers consider trade liberalization as a factor for increasing the quality of the environment. However, others argue that trade liberalization leads to some countries specialize in the production of pollution-intensive, energy-intensive or capital-intensive goods and therefore the quality of the environment is reduced. Since theory offers grounds for both positive and negative relationship between trade and the environment, the issue must be settled through empirical analysis. In this context, the main question here is how international trade affects quality of environment in oil exporting countries? For this purpose, in the form of composition, scale and technical effects, we construct a panel data analysis to identify the relationship between international trade and carbon emission of selected oil exporting countries during 1990–2011. Our results suggest that there is positive relationship between trade openness and carbon emission and thus, pollution heaven hypothesis for these countries is not rejected. Also, the relationship between per capita output and carbon emission is N-shape and scale effect is negative. Furthermore, increasing comparative advantage and foreign direct investment leads to a reduction in oil exporting countries’ carbon emissions; which respectively indicate scale and technical effects of the international trade to be negative.
Mohammadreza Saadi; Bahareh Oryani; Mir Hossein Mousavi; Masomeh Nematpour
Volume 10, Issue 38 , October 2010, , Pages 145-173
Mahmood Daneshvar Kakhki; Siavash Dehghanian; Ali Firooz Zarea
Volume 9, Issue 32 , April 2009, , Pages 147-166
Abstract
Estimating liquidity demand function considered as an instrument of designing effective policies on money balance. Based on different lookouts, economists represent different models. By using Iran´s time series data of 1974-2001, this study have estimated long-run relationship of money demand; ...
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Estimating liquidity demand function considered as an instrument of designing effective policies on money balance. Based on different lookouts, economists represent different models. By using Iran´s time series data of 1974-2001, this study have estimated long-run relationship of money demand; moreover, this have tried to investigate effects of short-run shocks on money demand. Results depicted that income, oil incomes, exchange rate and interest rate influence on money demand in short-run; furthermore, there is a long-run relationship between these variables and money demand. Also, on condition that a shock comes to across to money demand, only twenty six percent of this shock will be adjusted.
Reza Raei; Saeed Shirzadi
Volume 8, Issue 31 , January 2009, , Pages 147-170
Abstract
By studying the efficient market theory, the new financial management has confirmed the existence of calendar anomalies such as daily transaction effect, special monthly effect, holiday effect, etc as well as non calendar anomalies like initial public offering stock effect, neglected firm stock effect, ...
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By studying the efficient market theory, the new financial management has confirmed the existence of calendar anomalies such as daily transaction effect, special monthly effect, holiday effect, etc as well as non calendar anomalies like initial public offering stock effect, neglected firm stock effect, political cycle effect, etc and acknowledges them as anomalies of the efficient market theory. In fact, the recognition and existence or non existence tests of these anomalies is a new subject within the investment arena in recent years and several studies have been carried out in this regard by using different experiments specially time series and regression model with dummy variables, which are much observable in developed as well as emerging markets. By scrutinizing calendar and non calendar effects as well as full description of the efficient market theory anomalies, a sample of these effects known as “The effect of special months on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is studied and the produced results of the study is used to test the efficiency of TSE.
Jamshid Pajooyan; Nemat Falihi
Volume 8, Issue 28 , April 2008, , Pages 147-171
Abstract
The determination of economic value of environment resources has become significantly important in the light of increasing pollution and environmental deterioration that is getting momentum. On this ground, the necessity of gauging the cost of pollution, preparing the so called "green national accounts", ...
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The determination of economic value of environment resources has become significantly important in the light of increasing pollution and environmental deterioration that is getting momentum. On this ground, the necessity of gauging the cost of pollution, preparing the so called "green national accounts", introducing new taxes and levies to contain and prevent further destruction of the environment, has received especial attentions. The very objective of this paper is to determine the recreation value of Anzali Wetland for which the travel cost approach based on household production function has been employed. Generally two approaches are employed in regard to wetland recreation valuation. One is based on demand for travel which takes into account the willingness of individuals to pay for travel expenses. And the second one is based on recreation production function and marginal cost of each travel, taking into account the shadow price of recreation. The present paper has utilized the second approach for the valuation of wetland recreation services introduced by Doctor Pajooyan.J (1987). This approach has benefited from Gary Beaker household production function. The result of this study indicates that distance and travel expenses have significant effects on the provision of recreation services. Under competitive condition, marginal cost of recreation is estimated to amount to Rls, 1100000 per day which is take to be the shadow price of recreation. The result also indicates that the recreation demand has a negative relation with the shadow price of recreation and the relation is positive with respect to income of the consumers and this is in line with the theoretical foundation. Moreover, traveler's willingness to pay has a positive relation with income, marital status, level of education, and travel interest, but with respect to quality of wetland, this relation is negative.
Nahid Baharlou; Ali Akbar Aminbeydokhti; Mohammad Javad Mohagheghnia
Abstract
One of the main tasks of the financial institutions is to give loan to the customers. Prediction and evaluation of the credit risks due to loan and consequently managing this risk is one of the greatest ongoing challenges for the financial institutions. The main aim of this work is to provide an optimized ...
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One of the main tasks of the financial institutions is to give loan to the customers. Prediction and evaluation of the credit risks due to loan and consequently managing this risk is one of the greatest ongoing challenges for the financial institutions. The main aim of this work is to provide an optimized logistic regression model for credit scoring of real customers. Here the effects of increasing the customer’s credit classification from two (binary) to four (multinomial) distinct groups on the results of the logistic regression has been investigated. Identification of the most important parameters in prediction of the real customers’ credit scoring is the other important outcome of this work. The results of both binary and multinomial logistic regression show the relative importance of the education level and the age of the customer compared with other independent variables. The results of this work show that either increasing the number of classification types of the dependent variable, real customer’s credit, to four distinct groups has no sharp effect on the results of the optimized models or this conclusion can be due to improper distribution of the number of customers in different groups.
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Volume 4, Issue 14 , October 2004, , Pages 149-166
Mohammad Rasti; Javad Rezaei
Volume 13, Issue 51 , January 2014, , Pages 151-161
Abstract
Based on the literature on the relationship between financial development and trade, this paper examines the effect of financial development on both trade and trade in services in acceded countries to the WTO. By using a panel data method for the period of 1985 to 2006, the results indicate that financial ...
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Based on the literature on the relationship between financial development and trade, this paper examines the effect of financial development on both trade and trade in services in acceded countries to the WTO. By using a panel data method for the period of 1985 to 2006, the results indicate that financial development has a positive effect on total trade in acceded countries; therefore, it shows that financial development is a determinant factor of trade development and policy in these countries. On the other hand, financial development has a negative effect on trade in services.
Hassan Heydari; HamidReza Faalju; Fatemeh Karami
Volume 13, Issue 49 , July 2013, , Pages 151-176
Abstract
The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran, that has high degree of volatility, ...
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The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran, that has high degree of volatility, is exchange rate uncertainty.The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on price index in the TSE for the period of 1994-2009 using monthly data. In this regard, first, an index of exchange rate uncertainty is calculated using EGARCH models. Then, in order to obtain the relationship between uncertainty in real exchange rate and the stock price index, Bounds test approach is applied to the relationship between level data. The results show that in both long-run and short-run, there is a negative and significant relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices. Moveover, real exchange rate uncertainty has a non-significant negative effect on stock price in short-run. In the long-run, the relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and stock price is negative and significant. The results of Granger causality test also show that bidirectional causality exists between the real exchange rate and real exchange rate uncertainty in the short-run. While we could not find such an interactive relationship between other variables in the short-run, an indirect causality exists from exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty to the stock price in the long-run.
Hadi Heidari; GholamReza K. Haddad
Abstract
In this paper, we estimate the value at risk of Tehran stock exchange (TSE) index by using GARCH family models in short and long trading positions. Because of asymmetric behavior of returns for long and short positions in TSE, for enhanced accuracy of model, we apply asymmetric normal and t-student distribution ...
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In this paper, we estimate the value at risk of Tehran stock exchange (TSE) index by using GARCH family models in short and long trading positions. Because of asymmetric behavior of returns for long and short positions in TSE, for enhanced accuracy of model, we apply asymmetric normal and t-student distribution functions. By developing Sener et. al (2012) measurement for considering trading positions in performance assessment of parametric models, we show that EGARCH and GJRGARCH models with asymmetric normal and t-student distribution functions are more accurate than other models. Also complementary forecast ability test explain that, with a benchmark model such as GJRGARCH, other models do not have equal mean error, so the asymmetric distribution functions in EGARCH and GJRGARCH models improve their ranks.
monireh rafat; Mostafa Emadzadeh; Zahra Ghandehary Alavijeh
Abstract
Globalization and economic openness, by raising external risks, increase the presence and interference of governments to support domestic economy. However, by integrating markets and creating competition in private sector, globalization decreases the presence of government in the economy. In this paper, ...
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Globalization and economic openness, by raising external risks, increase the presence and interference of governments to support domestic economy. However, by integrating markets and creating competition in private sector, globalization decreases the presence of government in the economy. In this paper, under the theoretical framework of compensatory and efficiency hypotheses, the relationship between government size and economic openness in the long- and short-term is investigated for select member countries of Organization of Islamic Cooperation for period 1998-2015. The designed model is estimated by using vector autoregressive (VAR) and the two-stage least squares (2SLS) methods. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimation show that in short run, government size, population and financial openness influence government size. In the long run, urbanization and population variables have the greatest impact on government size. The effect of financial openness on government size in the long run is decreasing, but the effect of the trade openness is increasing. The results of 2SLS estimation also show that the effect of efficiency hypothesis on the size of the government cannot outweight the incremental effect of the compensatory hypothesis and, as a result, with increasing economic openness in these countries, government size has become larger.
Nazar Dehmardeh; Hamid Reza Izadi
Volume 9, Issue 33 , July 2009, , Pages 153-169
Abstract
Demand for money is an important part of macroeconomic models and the monetary policy; furthermore, demand for money and its stability are important in an economy especially in the design of monetary policy. We estimate the Iran’s demand for money for period (1971-2008) using the autoregressive ...
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Demand for money is an important part of macroeconomic models and the monetary policy; furthermore, demand for money and its stability are important in an economy especially in the design of monetary policy. We estimate the Iran’s demand for money for period (1971-2008) using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. We also use the error correction model for short-run dynamic analysis and stability test in model. The explanatory variables include gross domestic product, inflation rate, and foreign exchange rate, short-run and long-run interest. The results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. According to our finding , the gross domestic product have positive impact on the demand for money and exchange rate and inflation rate have significant negative effects on the demand for money in Iran.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Alireza Erfani
Volume 8, Issue 30 , October 2008, , Pages 153-174
Abstract
Using the Markov-Switching methods with monthly data 1989-2004 for an Early Warning Model for OPEC member countries is estimated. Doing so, the real effective exchange rate is used as the dependent variable, on the other hand, the ratio of M2 over foreign assets, ratio of foreign debt to foreign ...
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Using the Markov-Switching methods with monthly data 1989-2004 for an Early Warning Model for OPEC member countries is estimated. Doing so, the real effective exchange rate is used as the dependent variable, on the other hand, the ratio of M2 over foreign assets, ratio of foreign debt to foreign assets, ratio of internal credits to deposits, growth rate of foreign assets, deposits growth rate, growth rate of M2 over foreign assets, growth rate of oil income are considered as the explanation variables. According to the estimated model, the average growth rate of the real effective exchange rate in OPEC has been about 0.14 percent during the tranquil (Null Situation) and about -0.36 percent during crisis time (1 situation), which were not statistically significant. Volatility of the real exchange rate in tranquil time and in crisis time have apparent differences. Volatility in tranquil time was low and about 2 percent and in crisis time was high and about 29 percent. This shows that the volatility of exchange growth rate
has been an appropriate variable for distinction between tranquil and crisis periods.
