ali eskandaripour; davoud mahmoudinia; azadeh yousefi
Abstract
The global financial crisis has increased the attention of scholars to stabilization and sustainability of government's fiscal policies in recent years. The crisis also reminded governments that they should have a special look at their debt sustainability so that they can repay their debts in different ...
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The global financial crisis has increased the attention of scholars to stabilization and sustainability of government's fiscal policies in recent years. The crisis also reminded governments that they should have a special look at their debt sustainability so that they can repay their debts in different scenarios, including economic recession, at a minimum, in order not to enter a Ponzi game. In recent years, the level of debt in many developed and developing countries have been increasing, and Iran was not an exception to this phenomenon. Given that Iran is an oil-exporting country and its budget is heavily dependent on oil revenues, the lack of an optimal route could have significant effects, including that it could lead to revenues from the sale of oil to repay debt, as well as imposing heavy debt burden on future generations. Hence, in this study, we try to extract the equilibrium debt path in Iranian economy in a framework of an endogenous growth model and compare it with the actual debt path in Iran. The results of simulating equilibrium equations show that the equilibrium path of debt in Iranian economy is lower than its actual path. Therefore, as a policy recommendation, fiscal authorities of the country should pay particular attention to budget deficit and debt and, through a proper taxation system and the correct utilization of oil revenues, can make the actual debt path close to its optimum level to prevent excessive government borrowing from banking system and the negative consequences it poses.
Farzaneh Samadian; Farshad Momeni; hossien amiri
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of oil revenues and institutions on the capacity of job creation in member-countries of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The main research question is that how can be injecting unplanned oil revenues into the economy of OPEC members and through ...
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This paper examines the impact of oil revenues and institutions on the capacity of job creation in member-countries of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The main research question is that how can be injecting unplanned oil revenues into the economy of OPEC members and through what channels and mechanisms lead to inflict the productive capacities of these countries and limit job creation in these economies. In this regard, the hypothesis of research highlights the negative impact of oil revenues in an inefficient institutional framework on job creation capacity of oil exporting country’s economy. Accordingly, due to the severe Interweaving conditions of economy and policy in petroleum exporting countries, the theoretical model used in this study is based on the doctrine of institutional economics and to estimate the model and to test the hypothesis, we use data for 12 OPEC member countries over the period 2002-2014 in a panel-data econometric model.The results indicate that abundance of oil revenues in OPEC countries with inefficient infrastructure and institutions leads to decline in employment capacity. Statistical evidence also confirms the de-capacitation of employment in the economies of OPEC member countries through channels such as undermining the quality of institutions and over-reliance on imports in these countries.Based on these evidence, we come to the point that inconsiderate infusion of oil revenues in OPEC member countries in an inefficient institutional framework, limits the capacity of employment and in this way, their opportunities to achieve economic growth have become a threat to their development and growth.
Javid Bahrami; Ahmad Mohammadi; Reza Taleblu
Volume 12, Issue 44 , April 2012, , Pages 25-45
Abstract
We study the volatility of business cycle of Iranian economy base on the wavelet approach. we found some synchronic business cycles with different power and frequencies (two to four years cycles, and trend that indicates the low frequency) which is contradictory to the traditional approach that highlights ...
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We study the volatility of business cycle of Iranian economy base on the wavelet approach. we found some synchronic business cycles with different power and frequencies (two to four years cycles, and trend that indicates the low frequency) which is contradictory to the traditional approach that highlights classic definition of cycle (with three to eight years cycles).On the other hand, exception to 1971-1981, oil and non-oil cycles are approximately the same which means that the non-oil sector has been affected by the oil sector volatilities and neutralization of this affection by economic policies has been failed. The other point is that oil cycle has completely different asymmetry than the non-oil cycle. We also found that the energy of trend is sharply more than other elements of wavelet which indicates that the concealed long run volatilities is major part of the energy of economic time series. This finding is compatible with other related studies.
