Naser Khiabani; mahbubeh delfan
Abstract
This study investigates how fiscal policy shocks affect macroeconomic activities in an oil exporting economy using a real business cycle model (RBC). We make distinction between public sector of economy from private sector and evaluate the effect of public crowded- (in or out) effect on private sector. ...
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This study investigates how fiscal policy shocks affect macroeconomic activities in an oil exporting economy using a real business cycle model (RBC). We make distinction between public sector of economy from private sector and evaluate the effect of public crowded- (in or out) effect on private sector. Our findings indicate that in Iran, a positive fiscal expansion- a positive consumption expenditure shock- does not have a positive, sizeable and permanent effect on the investment, employment and production of private sector. On the other hand, the results show that the shock has a negative effect on private sector consumption expenditure. This result is consistent with the Ricardian equivalence theorem, suggesting that a government cannot stimulate spending since people assume that whatever is gained now will be offset by higher taxes in the future.
Mohamad Ghasemi; parisa mohajeri
Volume 15, Issue 56 , April 2015, , Pages 75-104
Abstract
Economic fluctuations and emergence of commercial cycles are inseparable parts of any economy. It is obvious that anti-cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies will stabilize the fluctuations. In fact, if the ratio of government expenditure to GDP decreases (increases) during a boom (recession) the behaviour ...
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Economic fluctuations and emergence of commercial cycles are inseparable parts of any economy. It is obvious that anti-cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies will stabilize the fluctuations. In fact, if the ratio of government expenditure to GDP decreases (increases) during a boom (recession) the behaviour of fiscal policy will be anti-cyclical. In this paper, using data released by the Central Bank for the period between 1966 and 2013, a model has been developed to test the anti-cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Findings of this paper indicate that, firstly, regardless of the calculation method of time series of GDP fluctuations– Hodrick-Prescott and State-Space models– the hypothesis of Iran’s anti-cyclical fiscal policies is rejected. Secondly, Nonconformity of financial rules and means of injection of resources resulted from oil export into government budget are two crucial issues explaining why Iran’s fiscal policies are not anti-cyclical. Thus, institutional reforms, especially budgetary structure of the country, could improve the performance of fiscal policies during the economic cycles
Zahra Afshari; Moorashin Javan; Shamsollah Shirinbakhsh
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 21-50
Abstract
Although there are numerous studies in the literature that look at the theoretical effects of automatic stabilizers and their efficiency, few of them present empirical evidence. This paper conducts an empirical study on the effects of fiscal policy as an automatic stabilizer. In the first part of this ...
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Although there are numerous studies in the literature that look at the theoretical effects of automatic stabilizers and their efficiency, few of them present empirical evidence. This paper conducts an empirical study on the effects of fiscal policy as an automatic stabilizer. In the first part of this paper we attempt to study the cyclicality of fiscal policy and for this purpose, the method of panel data is applied to 8 OPEC member countries for the period of 1976-2009. The results show that the fiscal policy for the selected countries is counter-cyclical. The main purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between fiscal policy (measured by government expenditures, tax revenues and transfers) and fluctuations of economy during business cycles (measured by GDP, private GDP and consumption) among 8 OPEC member countries by applying panel data approach for the period 1976-2005. The results show that there is a strong and negative correlation between tax revenues (relative to GDP) and fluctuations of output. This paper also show that government expenditures (relative to GDP) are positively correlated with the fluctuations of output. The results indicate that tax revenues, as an efficient fiscal policy tool, help to smooth the fluctuations of output. On the other hand, the results show that government expenditures increase the fluctuations of output. Furthermore, we check for the robustness of our results by introducing a list of control variables (openness, GDP, GDP per capita and GDP growth) and introducing these variables into our model does not affect our main results. So, this observation supports the idea that in countries that are exposed to business cycles with more fluctuations, it is desirable to increase tax revenues (relative to GDP) by expanding tax base to help smooth these fluctuations.
