Farzad Karimi; Hossein Pirasteh; Seyed Komail Tayyebi
Volume 9, Issue 35 , January 2010, , Pages 265-288
Abstract
In the new literature of international trade, the focus has been on discussion of how trade integration affects business cycle synchronization.
The objective of this paper is exploring the main determinants of business cycle synchronization whit emphasizing on the trade integration which have ...
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In the new literature of international trade, the focus has been on discussion of how trade integration affects business cycle synchronization.
The objective of this paper is exploring the main determinants of business cycle synchronization whit emphasizing on the trade integration which have been evaluated through econometric model over period 1990-2005.
The empirical results show that trade integration is significantly the major factor of business cycle synchronization in these countries particularly during 1990-2005. In addition, similarities in both fiscal and monetary policies as well as similarities in economics structures influence significantly business cycle synchronization in the region.
Seyyed Nematollah Moosavi; Hamid Mohammadi; Farzaneh Taheri
Volume 9, Issue 34 , October 2009, , Pages 289-307
Abstract
Government supporting policies in the case of strategic crops have been inclined toward consumers. The polices influence farmers cultivation pattern. Nominal Protection Rate is as a measure to investigate the impact of government pricing polices on crop production. The impact of government pricing policy ...
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Government supporting policies in the case of strategic crops have been inclined toward consumers. The polices influence farmers cultivation pattern. Nominal Protection Rate is as a measure to investigate the impact of government pricing polices on crop production. The impact of government pricing policy on wheat growers response over 1353-1385 (1974-2006) was studied using Cointegration analysis. Fluctuations of nominal protection rate during the selected period revealed that price polices have not been flexible in proportion to the changes in conditions. Nominal protection rate of less than unity over the study period indicates that not only wheat growers have not been supported but also have paid tax implicitly. The cointegration analysis showed a positive long run relationship between nominal protection rate and cropping area as well as wheat production.
Hamid Amadeh
Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 295-325
Abstract
Red meat and chicken meat are of crucial importance in Irans’ house holds food baskets. An increase in the price of red meat has an increasing direct effect on chicken meat. Meat market is very fluctuating but due to liberalization and the elimination of government intervention the market is usually ...
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Red meat and chicken meat are of crucial importance in Irans’ house holds food baskets. An increase in the price of red meat has an increasing direct effect on chicken meat. Meat market is very fluctuating but due to liberalization and the elimination of government intervention the market is usually balanced. In this paper the structure of price changes and the relation between whole sale and retail sale prices have been investigated and analyzed by using ARDL & ECM modeling. The results show that the elasticity of this reaction is about 1-15. One may conclude that the main reason for price changes is the price changes in the whole sale market, which is to be considered as of a great importance by policy makers to have a balanced market.
Asghar Shahmoradi; Seyed Ali Naseri
Volume 10, Issue 39 , January 2011, , Pages 299-327
Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Mohammad Reza Farzin; Abolfazl Najarzadeh
Volume 11, Issue 40 , April 2011, , Pages 303-322
Abstract
The formation and appearance of the concept of knowledge-based economy seems bring changes in the national economies all over the world. Developed countries are experiencing a shift from traditional energy-based economies to knowledge economy based on of intellectual property factors. Innovation ...
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The formation and appearance of the concept of knowledge-based economy seems bring changes in the national economies all over the world. Developed countries are experiencing a shift from traditional energy-based economies to knowledge economy based on of intellectual property factors. Innovation plays an important role in the economic structures of knowledge-based (developed) as well as developing economies.
Assessing the eminent role of innovation in economic growth, this paper tries to investigate the importance of intellectual property rights on innovation. For this purpose, we use data of the period of1975- 2005 of Islamic developing countries and employ panel data methodology to analyze intellectual property rights on innovation. Results indicate a positive significant effect of intellectual property rights on innovation in the Islamic developing countries.
Majid Maddah
Volume 11, Issue 42 , October 2011, , Pages 303-323
Abstract
Economic and Socail unsuitable effects of crime have increased researches related to
understanding of effective factors on growth of crime in recent years. In this paper, on
theoretical and empirical basis of crime,The relationship between crime and total crimes are
investigated ...
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Economic and Socail unsuitable effects of crime have increased researches related to
understanding of effective factors on growth of crime in recent years. In this paper, on
theoretical and empirical basis of crime,The relationship between crime and total crimes are
investigated by specification of two models about vehicle larceny and total larceny. Models
of panel data for country!s provinces in (1382-1385) are estimated. Results show strong and
significant relationship between income inequality and poverty with crime in two model
,increasing of inequality and poverty increase the rate of crime about vehicle larceny and
total larceny during the period (1382-1385). Also, positive and significant effect of people
aged (15-24) on crime confirm in two model and population density on crime confirm in
vehicle Larceny model.
Darush Farid; Mohammad Hassan Zare; Habib Zare; Alireza Rajabipour Meybodi
Volume 10, Issue 36 , April 2010, , Pages 309-331
Abstract
These days one of the important issues of the world is the measurement of efficiency of production per unit. Stock exchange organizations also play pivotal role in attaining investment and improvement of economic signals in different countries. Therefore, while considering this role and the numbers of ...
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These days one of the important issues of the world is the measurement of efficiency of production per unit. Stock exchange organizations also play pivotal role in attaining investment and improvement of economic signals in different countries. Therefore, while considering this role and the numbers of branches of stock exchanges in Iran, it is important to measure the efficiency of these branches and compare them with each other. In this study, we have used DEA technique, to assess the efficiency achieved by each branch and then we ranked them on the basis of the points collected by each branch. We have also, tried to define the conceptual system of assessment for efficiency of each branch and we have also collected the related data. Then on the basis of DEA technique we have assessed each branch for its efficiency. Finally, we used Team Expert Choice software to rank branches of stock exchanges accordingly.
Ali Soori; Mohsen Ebrahimi; Ehsan Hoseini Doost
Volume 10, Issue 38 , October 2010, , Pages 311-329
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Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 229-240
Shahriar Nessabian; Reza Moghaddasi
Volume 10, Issue 37 , July 2010, , Pages 327-338
Abstract
Sugar is one of the main processed agricultural products whose consumption is increasing in the world. Currently a considerable share of total production and consumption belongs to rich countries such as EU members and U.S. These countries try to control the world market by using some support policies ...
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Sugar is one of the main processed agricultural products whose consumption is increasing in the world. Currently a considerable share of total production and consumption belongs to rich countries such as EU members and U.S. These countries try to control the world market by using some support policies such as: export’s subsidy, low rate loans and high import tariffs. In this study the economic indicators of sugar world market are reviewed and economic situation of sugar industry in Iran is considered as well.
. .
Volume 1, Issue 3 , January 2002, , Pages 241-245
abbas shakeri; teymour mohammadi; Mohammad Jafari
Abstract
The significance of oil market and its impact on economic growth in oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries has led to examination of factors affecting it in different studies. Financial market and its components have penetrated in traditional oil market and this has resulted in creation of exchanges ...
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The significance of oil market and its impact on economic growth in oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries has led to examination of factors affecting it in different studies. Financial market and its components have penetrated in traditional oil market and this has resulted in creation of exchanges to trade oil-related securities. Therefore, the importance of financial markets has emerged not as an exogenous variable but as an endogenous variable within the oil market. Scientific results of the research demonstrate that the long-term impact of futures markets on the oil market is definite, however during the crises, due to the concerns about complicated crisis conditions, the effective time horizon becomes short-term, and consequently it is the spot market that influences future variables. Therefore, it is suggested that, in order to prevent the impact of global financial crises on the state’s budget, we have to monitor the financial markets and also participate in oil futures market which has the advantage of generating risk coverage and ensuring the country’s budget to become secure against price fluctuations of international markets. Finally, by undertaking a wise strategy of speculation, we can take advantage of potential opportunities, if supported by domestic financial institutions and Ministry of Petroleum and, therefore, earn the country tremendous revenues.
Farhad Khodadad Kashi; Mohamad Oshani; Mohamad Sadegh Ghazizadeh; Kioumars Heydari
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison between different methods of natural monopoly regulation for electricity distribution companies in Iran and introduce the best suitable one based on productivity, quality and incentive considerations. Here we have concluded that the price cap regulation ...
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The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison between different methods of natural monopoly regulation for electricity distribution companies in Iran and introduce the best suitable one based on productivity, quality and incentive considerations. Here we have concluded that the price cap regulation model is the most efficient method of regulation for the situation under consideration. Based on the literature, the target values of both productivity and quality has been calculated in different scenarios of this research. The sample consists of 39 electricity distribution companies in Iran during period 2006 to 2016. First, using the SFA and DEA methods to determine the efficiency score of each company, we have calculated the X-factor for every firm in a 5-year period. In addition, the X-factor was calculated based on Malmquist index and differential method. The results suggest that target X-factor is in the range of 1.7% to 3%. The results indicated that there is an opportunity to increase productivity of electricity distribution companies. To encourage the firms to improve their productivity, a higher target rate of productivity growth would be considered for low-efficiency firms and a lower target for high-efficiency ones. Service quality has been evaluated mainly by quantification and measurement of energy not supplied (ENS) and the waiting time for a new customer to be connected to the power grid and to be able to use electricity. And the target quality value was set for each company.
abbas shakeri; Javid Bahrami; Hamidreza Derakhshan
Abstract
This study aims to introduce the microstructure approach to the exchange rate as the 4th generation of exchange rate models and to apply it in a simulation model to study the effects of transparency of macroeconomic data on exchange rate fluctuations. The microstructure approach to the exchange rate ...
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This study aims to introduce the microstructure approach to the exchange rate as the 4th generation of exchange rate models and to apply it in a simulation model to study the effects of transparency of macroeconomic data on exchange rate fluctuations. The microstructure approach to the exchange rate is developed to include decentralized and multi-layer structure of currency markets along with information complexities in this market and the role of trading mechanisms in exchange rate determination. After introducing this approach, we have developed our theoretical model to use it for simulation. In this simulation, we have studied the effects of transparency of macro data release on exchange rate fluctuation. To achieve this goal, we have used two variables of “delay in macro data release” and “error in macro data release”. Our simulation results show that an increase in macro data release delay leads to higher volatility of The exchange rate. This is because of increasing uncertainty for economic agents. In addition, an increase in macro data release delay leads to a farther delay in responsiveness of the exchange rate to movements in its macro fundamental variables. Although we have found a non-linear relationship between the “error in macro data release” variable and exchange rate volatility, the magnitude of this effect is less than the effect of the “delay in macro data release” variable on exchange rate volatility. Based on our results, we recommend that to have lower exchange rate volatility, authorities should increase the transparency of macroeconomic data releases and especially they should lower the delay in macro data releases.
Ghlamreza Keshavarz-Haddad; Mohammad Amin Zabol
Abstract
In this paper, Value at Risk for Gold prices Is estimated by the Extreme Value theory and parametric method with Normal and t-student distribution for disturbance term in the mean equation together with a range of the conditional variances estimation techniques including, GARCH (1.1), TGARCH, EGARCH, ...
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In this paper, Value at Risk for Gold prices Is estimated by the Extreme Value theory and parametric method with Normal and t-student distribution for disturbance term in the mean equation together with a range of the conditional variances estimation techniques including, GARCH (1.1), TGARCH, EGARCH, PGARCH, FIGARCH and FIEGARCH Models. The two-stage Back-Testing method is used to evaluate the adequacy and accuracy of the calculation methods. Furthermore, we rank the accuracy of the estimation methods by a loss function. Our findings show that the most accurate method, In terms of the value of the loss function and among the applied econometrics methods, is VaR by t-student distribution for gold return and PGARCH for the long position and acceptable performance for the short position.
Hossein Tavakolian; Mehdi Sarem; Javad Taherpoor; Mahnoosh Abdollah Milani
Abstract
This paper models the assets and liabilities of the Social Security Fund in Iran. The fund's financial position in practice is influenced by the population dynamics between two generations of employed and retired people, focusing on four important characteristics: the premium rate and pension ...
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This paper models the assets and liabilities of the Social Security Fund in Iran. The fund's financial position in practice is influenced by the population dynamics between two generations of employed and retired people, focusing on four important characteristics: the premium rate and pension benefits of the working and retired generation, the two-generation employed and retired population pyramid, the employment generation period and the retirement period. In this study, an overlapping generation model is designed to show the dependence of the stability of the fund on the generational population and the transitions between generations taking into account such characteristics. The simulation results show that although the ratio of assets to liabilities can be potentially high, the gap between assets and liabilities of the fund is so high that any of the proposed policies alone cannot close the gap and ensure its stability. Therefore, policy implication s to stabilize the fund's assets and liabilities can be proposed in two scenarios. The similarity of both scenarios is that the government first pays its share of the insurance and secondly increases the premium rate to 10%, with the retirement pension being reduced by 50% in the first scenario and 10% in the second scenario. The results of the analysis show that the improvement of the fund stabilization is mainly dependent on the decrease in retirement pension, which can be stabilized in a certain time horizon.
Saeed Moshiri; Arian Daneshmand; Bahar Niazi
Abstract
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) suggests that environmental quality improves with income after the economy passes an income threshold. Many studies have examined the EKC but the results are mixed. This study Investigates how international trade has affected the EKC’s position. The study ...
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The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) suggests that environmental quality improves with income after the economy passes an income threshold. Many studies have examined the EKC but the results are mixed. This study Investigates how international trade has affected the EKC’s position. The study uses the ecological footprint, as an indicator of environmental degradation, in 149 countries divided into four income groups for the period 1980-2014. From the panel model estimations, the results confirm an inverted U-shape relationship between the ecological footprint and income. Furthermore, they indicate that trade has altered the position of the EKC, in the entire sample. However, the results vary across income groups. Specifically, the EKC has been shifted by trade upwards in upper-income boundaries. The lower-income countries have not reached the income threshold suggested by the EKC and trade impact on the position of the EKC has not been significant. In this case, it can be inferred that trade worsens environmental degradation.
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash; Fazeleh Gholizadeh; Farkhondeh Soleimani
Abstract
According to empirical evidence, the consequences of supportive policies will not necessarily lead to efficient industries, optimal allocation of resources, international competition, and optimal use of opportunities. Inappropriate or suboptimal use of the supportive policies in manufacturing industries ...
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According to empirical evidence, the consequences of supportive policies will not necessarily lead to efficient industries, optimal allocation of resources, international competition, and optimal use of opportunities. Inappropriate or suboptimal use of the supportive policies in manufacturing industries may change the direction of scarce resources and the relative prices in the society which may lead to price distortion and some monopoly power in the country's industries. In this study, using the Hall-Rager method, we analyzed the effect of supportive policies on price deviation in the Iranian manufacturing industries. To do this we used the Herfindahl index, the simple rate of tariff, and Implicit nominal support index as independent variables and the price deviation in the manufacturing industries of the country as a dependent variable. The model as a dynamic panel data has been estimated with the generalized method of moments for 92 industries based on the four-digit ISIC code during 2004-2014. The results showed that between the years 2004 to 2014, the highest level of simple tariff rate was for the shoes and clothes industry with 100 percent. The cement and plaster industry had the most implicit support amongst the 92 studied industries. According to the estimated models, centralized industrial structure, implicit nominal support, tariff rate, and barrier entry intensity have had a positive and significant effect on the formation of price deviation in Iran's manufacturing industries.
Alireza Ahadifar; Reza Ranjpour; Zahra Karimi Takanlo; Jafar Haghighat
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of intra-organizational and macro factors affecting banking leverage in selected Iranian banks in the presence of heterogeneous slope coefficients and cross-sectional dependence of residuals. For this purpose, the mean group estimators were ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of intra-organizational and macro factors affecting banking leverage in selected Iranian banks in the presence of heterogeneous slope coefficients and cross-sectional dependence of residuals. For this purpose, the mean group estimators were used from 1999 to 2018 for selected 10 banks. Diagnostic tests showed that the hypotheses of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity of slope coefficients can not be rejected, so, the Augmented Mean Group estimator (AMG) was used. According to the results, the variables of credit risk and liquidity risk have positive and significant effects while the bank size has a negative and significant effect on bank leverage. Among macro and extra-organizational factors, inflation and real interest rates have positive effects and economic growth has a significant negative effect on the financial leverage of selected banks.
Leila Sadat Zafaranchi; Mahdi Goldani
Abstract
Married men are one of the main groups of labor market employed and therefore the study of their labor market behavior is one of the priorities of labor market policy. The present study attempts to identify the variables affecting the market working hours of married men with employed spouses ...
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Married men are one of the main groups of labor market employed and therefore the study of their labor market behavior is one of the priorities of labor market policy. The present study attempts to identify the variables affecting the market working hours of married men with employed spouses based on the literature of the collective model (CM) of household labor supply. The research information is based on micro and cross-sectional data of Iran in 2018 and the statistical sample includes 724 married men living in urban and rural areas. The model was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) and related tests. The results show that the labor supply function of married men is standard (the substitution effect is larger than the income effect) and the supply increases with wage but at diminishing rate. Also, married men with higher levels of education than their wives spend more leisure-living time. Also, working hours of married men with employed spouses decrease with age. Moreover, higher education and number of children increase married men working hours.
Ali Akbar Arabmazar; Hojjat Izadkhasti; Sarah Yavari
Abstract
Value-added tax is levied at various stages of the import, production, distribution, and consumption chain based on a percentage of the value of goods sold or services provided at each stage and ultimately paid by the final consumer. Structural transformation is considered as one of the variables ...
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Value-added tax is levied at various stages of the import, production, distribution, and consumption chain based on a percentage of the value of goods sold or services provided at each stage and ultimately paid by the final consumer. Structural transformation is considered as one of the variables affecting the efficiency of VAT collection often has led to an increase in the share of services in the total value added of the economy. In this study, the effect of structural transformation on the efficiency of VAT collection in provinces of Iran during 2008-2016. The results indicate that the ratio of value added of the service sector to total value added has a negative and significant effect on the efficiency of VAT collection. The value-added ratio of the services sector to the value added of the industrial sector has a negative and significant effect on the efficiency of VAT collection. Also, GDP growth per capita, Gini coefficient and the interval of value-added ratio of the agricultural sector of total value added has a negative effect on the efficiency of VAT collection. The rate of urbanization and the ratio of construction expenditures to total government expenditures have a positive and significant effect on the efficiency of VAT collection in the provinces.
Ali Sarkhosh-Sara; Khadijeh Nasrollahi; Karim Azarbayjani
Abstract
One of the most important factors in achieving sustainable economic growth and development is to increase exports, which is also the main goal of foreign trade policy. In this area, emerging countries have been able to achieve significant success in recent years. Therefore, studying the experiences of ...
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One of the most important factors in achieving sustainable economic growth and development is to increase exports, which is also the main goal of foreign trade policy. In this area, emerging countries have been able to achieve significant success in recent years. Therefore, studying the experiences of these countries can be effective in increasing Iranian exports. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of fundamental factors and institutional variables on exports of a selection of emerging economies during the period 2000-2015 using the panel data econometric method. Our results show that the effects of fundamental factors, namely total factor productivity, human capital and R&D expenditures, on export performance of select emerging countries are positive and significant and the effect of labor cost variable is negative and significant. Also, our results show that, in general, the effect of good governance variables, as an indicator of institutional factors, on exports of emerging countries is positive and significant. These results indicate that reducing production- and risk-costs and strengthening institutional foundations in emerging countries has led to a boost in investment and production arrangements in these countries and ultimately to an increase in exports. Also, our results show that the effect of consumption expenditures on export performance of select emerging countries is negative and significant and the effect of government tax revenues on export performance is a reversed U shape. These results show that based on The experiences of emerging countries, different countries have to pay attention to fundamental factors and institutional variables, in addition to conventional methods such as increasing exchange rates, export awards, etc., and implement reforms that are curb inefficiencies in goods and labor markets.
Shahram Mosalla; Alireza Amini; Gholamreza Geraeinejad; Ali Akbar Khosravinejad
Abstract
The study of the effect of education on total factor productivity is one of the important topics in the macroeconomic literature and educational policy. However, identifying the threshold of the effect of education on total factor productivity is of more interest to policymakers. The present study ...
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The study of the effect of education on total factor productivity is one of the important topics in the macroeconomic literature and educational policy. However, identifying the threshold of the effect of education on total factor productivity is of more interest to policymakers. The present study investigates the nonlinear relationship between education and total factor productivity for the period 1365-1397 SH (1986-2018). Average years of study have been used as an indicator of education and the Gentle Transfer Regression (STR) model has been applied to estimate the threshold. The results confirm the nonlinear effect of education levels on total factor productivity and show that the quantity of education index in a two-regime structure with a threshold of 81.86 (equivalent to the average years of study 7.82 years) has a significant effect on total factor productivity. Given that the Iranian economy has exceeded the threshold since 1390 SH (2011), increasing the quantity of education will have a negative impact on productivity. Therefore, reviewing the quantitative development of education and giving priority to improving the quality of education has more priority than in past.
Ali Hussein Samadi; Ebrahim Hadian; parviz rostamzadeh; hamzeh sheikhiani
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on ...
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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of trade liberalization on income inequality with consideration of socio-institutional factors emphasized by resistance economy policies in Iran. To meet this end, the Decaluwe et al. (2013) model has been adjusted and it is solved based on Social Accounting Matrix data of year 2011. The results show that in current institutional situation of Iran, the reduction of tariffs in the agriculture, horticulture, forestry and mining sectors can reduce inequality and tariff reduction in sectors of food industry, low technology industries, high technology industries, higher education, transportation and other services will increase inequality in urban and rural areas. By reducing tariff rates in mid-tech industries, inequality in urban and rural areas initially decreases and then increase. Reducing tariffs in oil and gas and healthcare sectors does not affect inequality in urban and rural areas. It is also shown that in the case of implementing resistance economy policies and improving institutional quality, tariff rate reduction in all sectors of production will reduce inequality. Reducing tariff rates in primary and secondary education sectors, housing and other sectors that de not have any link to outside world has no effect on inequality, both in the current institutional situation and in the case of institutional quality improvement as a result of implementing resistance economy policies. Therefore, it is suggested that attention be paid to improvement of institutional quality in the country, along with the implementation of resistance economy policies.
hojjat izadkhasti
Abstract
Regional inequality has economic, social and cultural dimensions. One of the main concerns of planners and policymakers in economic development programs is reduction of poverty and inequality based on provincial income per capita. Therefore, through budget allocation tools, the government can reduce ...
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Regional inequality has economic, social and cultural dimensions. One of the main concerns of planners and policymakers in economic development programs is reduction of poverty and inequality based on provincial income per capita. Therefore, through budget allocation tools, the government can reduce inequalities in provincial incomes per capita and create more balance among provinces. In this paper, the effects of inequality in the allocation of provincial budget on provincial inequalities are estimated using dynamic panel data method for period 2005-2016 in 30 Iranian provinces. The estimation results indicate that the increase in inequality of provincial capital formation budget has reduced inequality in provincial income. This result indicates an increase in government investment in infrastructure and a higher share of government development budget in less-developed provinces. Also, with increasing inequality in provincial current per capita budget, inequality in regional income has increased; because an increase in inequality of current per capita budget in the provinces can lead to unbalanced public service provision and an increase in inequality of income per capita.
