Reza Tehrani; Mahshid Shahchera; Saeid Fallahpour; Zeinab Biyabani
Abstract
The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to the redoubled attention of international institutions to the issue of banking regulation. In this regard, the Basel Committee to exercise effective banking supervision reviewed and introduced new standards and requirements in the field of banking regulations, ...
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The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to the redoubled attention of international institutions to the issue of banking regulation. In this regard, the Basel Committee to exercise effective banking supervision reviewed and introduced new standards and requirements in the field of banking regulations, such as capital adequacy requirements, providing liquidity requirements, and leverage ratio. On the whole, studies show that capital ratios have significant and negative impacts on large European bank-retail-and-other-lending-growth in a context of deleveraging and “credit crunch” in Europe over the post-2008 financial crisis period. Additionally, liquidity indicators have positive but perverse effects on bank-lending growth, which supports the need to consider heterogeneous banks’ characteristics and behaviors when implementing new regulatory policies. In this article, by using the data of the Iranian banks during 2006-2018, the simultaneous effect of the new liquidity and capital regulations, inspired by the requirements of Basel Committee and based on the new instructions of the Central Bank, has been studied. In other words, the issue addressed in this paper is what conditions the simultaneous implementation of capital and liquidity requirements by banks will put them in. According to the results, liquidity requirements and capital requirements are complementary. Based on the results, the relationship between liquidity risk (Inverse of Net Stable Funding Ratio) and capital adequacy is positive. Therefore, with the increase of liquidity risk in banks, it will not be possible to establish capital requirements following the provisions of Basel III.
Esfandiar Jahangard; Jamal Kakaie
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic became widespread in most countries of the world in late 2019. In addition to human casualties, it has also affected the economies of countries. According to IMF, the world economic growth in 2020 was -3.5 percent. However, the GDP’s growth rate of the Iran economy for ...
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The COVID-19 pandemic became widespread in most countries of the world in late 2019. In addition to human casualties, it has also affected the economies of countries. According to IMF, the world economic growth in 2020 was -3.5 percent. However, the GDP’s growth rate of the Iran economy for 2020 has been positive and was reported as 1.5 percent, but there is evident that the economy has been affected by the coronavirus. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the production, employment, and value-added of the economy of Iran by using the hypothetical extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) and the Input-Output general equilibrium model of Zaytseva (2000). We have used the data from the input-output table of the Iran Central Bank in 2016 and the employment figures of the Statistics Center of Iran. The results show that the production and the value-added of the economy will decrease by 4.3 and 4 percent respectively. Among the value-added components, mixed-income and net operating surplus experienced the highest declining growth rate. Also, about 6.5 percent of the country's employees have been affected directly and indirectly by the Coronavirus.
Reza Maaboudi; Zeynab Dare Nazari
Abstract
This paper aims to study the relationship between financialization and the variables of income distribution and economic growth in Iran during 1988:q1 -2019:q4. To analyze the relationship, the continuous wavelet transform approach and to explain the results with empirical facts, the regression ...
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This paper aims to study the relationship between financialization and the variables of income distribution and economic growth in Iran during 1988:q1 -2019:q4. To analyze the relationship, the continuous wavelet transform approach and to explain the results with empirical facts, the regression approach with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) have been used. Results of the wavelet transform show that, in the short-run, there is a positive coherency between financialization and income inequality; so that during 1989-2007 and 2014-2019, financialization is the leading and cause of income inequality. Also, in the short run, there is a negative coherency between financialization and economic growth; in a way that during 1989-2019 financialization is the leading and cause of economic growth. The results of the MIDAS approach also show that in addition to financialization, the variables of government expenditures, economic growth, inflation, and sanctions have a positive and significant effect, and the policy of targeted subsidies has a negative and significant impact on income inequality. Also, financialization, government expenditures, income inequality, inflation, and economic sanctions have a negative and significant effect, and physical capital, employment, and degree of trade openness have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. As a result, the phenomenon of financialization accompanied by the imposition of economic sanctions and government policies, on the one hand, leads to an increase in the wage and income gap between the real sector and the financial sector, and, on the other hand, their effects leave a negative impact on economic growth by the diversion investment to unproductive activities.
Mehdi Fadaee; Sama Azari
Abstract
Finding economic and policy-making tools to protect the environment in the presence of increasing trade competition among countries has always been a regional and international concern in recent decades. In this study, we first introduce, review and investigate the relevant environmental policies ...
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Finding economic and policy-making tools to protect the environment in the presence of increasing trade competition among countries has always been a regional and international concern in recent decades. In this study, we first introduce, review and investigate the relevant environmental policies in the existing environmental economic literature. Then, in the framework of a non-cooperative static game model, we focus on market-based policies and command and control regulations as pollution abatement policies, and examine which of the two emission tax and emission standard policies from the private, social and environmental points of view has a better performance in the presence of pollution production asymmetries or asymmetry of the vulnerability of countries to pollution. The results show that both competitive environmental taxation and the emission standards, in the stated asymmetric conditions, can reduce pollution emissions and increase social welfare. But a comparison of the two policies shows that the tax policy, which is an interventionist policy in the market, has less positive effects on welfare and the environment than the standard regulations. Even firms often prefer to operate under a standard pollution policy rather than a tax policy, unless their emissions are lower than those of their competitor.
Fatemeh Bazzazan; mahnaz smaeili; Fereshteh Farsi
Abstract
Today, tourism is one of the world's highest booming economic sectors and it is such important in socio-economic development that economists have called it “invisible export”. Given the expanding role of tourism in economic prosperity and the existence of religious and historic sites in Khorasan ...
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Today, tourism is one of the world's highest booming economic sectors and it is such important in socio-economic development that economists have called it “invisible export”. Given the expanding role of tourism in economic prosperity and the existence of religious and historic sites in Khorasan Razavi province, especially the Imam Reza holy shrine, the impact of tourism on the economy of Khorasan Razavi province is studied in form of a two-region input-output model. For this purpose, input-output coefficients of Khorasan Razavi province and other areas of Iran have been calculated with the use of FLQ non-statistical method from the national input-output table of the year 2011. By calculating direct and increasing coefficients of production and employment in Khorasan Razavi province and the rest of the national economy, a two-region input-output model is presented here. The expenditures paid by domestic tourists staying in the province have been added to our model as export of this province. Our findings show that because of domestic tourists in year 2011, production and employment in this province have been increased 12/11 and 11/47 percent respectively. Moreover, The manufacturing sector in Khorasan Razavi did have the highest level of output impact from the arrival of domestic tourists. The tourism-related sectors, such as transportation and warehousing on the one hand, and wholesale and retail on the other hand were placed in the second and third rank respectively.
Mohammad Amin Sadeghzadeh; Ahmad Reza Jalali-Naini; Naser Khiabani; Mohammad Amin Naderian
Abstract
More recent research indicates that the effect of monetary policy is state-dependent. This paper conjectures that the impact of monetary shocks on output and inflation in the Iranian economy is contingent on state of the economy, reflecting the size of oil revenue streams, which closely approximates ...
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More recent research indicates that the effect of monetary policy is state-dependent. This paper conjectures that the impact of monetary shocks on output and inflation in the Iranian economy is contingent on state of the economy, reflecting the size of oil revenue streams, which closely approximates economic cycles. Limited access to international financial markets together with fiscal spillovers emanating from financing of government expenditures and fiscal deficit finance, in a fiscally dominant environment, are the main contributing factors in this respect. To address the state-dependent effectiveness of monetary shocks in the Iranian economy during the period 1990-2017, we utilized a two-stage nonlinear SVAR model. First, the monetary and fiscal shocks were identified by a short term zero-restriction method in which fiscal dominance was taken into account as an amplification mechanism for fiscal shocks. Then, we used a smooth transition auto regressive (STAR) method proposed by Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012) to decompose boom and bust oil revenue cycles. Finally, the asymmetric effects of monetary shock on output and inflation in expansion and contraction phases were analyzed by impulse response functions estimated using local projection method developed by Jorda (2005). Our findings demonstrate that the reactions of output and inflation to monetary shocks are asymmetric and state-dependent over oil revenue cycles. While the impact of monetary shocks on output is positive and significant only in the expansionary phases, the positive reaction of inflation to monetary shock is stronger and more persistent in oil revenue scarce periods rather than abundant ones.
Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd; Mohsen Mehrara
Abstract
The main objective of the study is to investigate the bubble migration between foreign exchange and housing markets in Iran using seasonal data of 1966-1396. In this regard, bubble dating is discovered by using of Phillips et al (2015) method; then, bubble migration from the foreign exchange market to ...
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The main objective of the study is to investigate the bubble migration between foreign exchange and housing markets in Iran using seasonal data of 1966-1396. In this regard, bubble dating is discovered by using of Phillips et al (2015) method; then, bubble migration from the foreign exchange market to the housing market and from the housing market to the foreign exchange market is examined, using the Gomez-Gonzales et al. (2016) method. The results show that there are 7 bubble periods in the foreign exchange market; and 7 bubble periods in the Housing market. four hypotheses were defined for examine the bubble migration, according to the bubble dates (from the foreign exchange to housing market and vice versa). The results of the hypothesis testes showed that the first house bubble (2007Q2-2008Q3) led to the creation of the first bubble of the foreign exchange market (2007Q4-2008Q3). It seems that in the currency restriction conditions, the probability of creating a foreign exchange bubble and its migration to the housing market is rather high and vice versa.
Sajjad Faraji Dizaji; Zeinab Sadat Ghadamgahi
Abstract
Economic sanctions, by causing economic problems for states and influencing their revenues and spending policies, can undermine the quality of life and health for common people. Sanctions can negatively affect the total amount of available resources in a country and the proportion of it allocated to ...
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Economic sanctions, by causing economic problems for states and influencing their revenues and spending policies, can undermine the quality of life and health for common people. Sanctions can negatively affect the total amount of available resources in a country and the proportion of it allocated to public domains such as healthcare. Thereby sanctions can increase vulnerability of citizens. This study aims at investigating the impact of economic sanctions on public health expenditure in developing resource-exporting countries by applying dynamic panel data method over period 1996 to 2012. The result shows that both minor and major economic sanctions significantly decrease public health expenditure as a percentage of government expenditure. In addition, our findings indicate that major economic sanctions significantly increase public health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product. This can be attributed to the fact that major economic sanctions have had a greater impact on gross domestic product than on public health expenditure. Overall, the results of this study show adverse effects of sanctions on the health of citizens by reducing allocated public expenditure to healthcare sector.
Reza Zamani; Sepideh Mohsen Pourian
Abstract
We use the budget expenditure approach to evaluate tax evasion of self-employed businesses in Iran. As self-employment guilds cover various jobs, we choose dentists as a sample. Facing limited data access, we use household budget expenditure in 2016. We first calculate the the income of dentists’ ...
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We use the budget expenditure approach to evaluate tax evasion of self-employed businesses in Iran. As self-employment guilds cover various jobs, we choose dentists as a sample. Facing limited data access, we use household budget expenditure in 2016. We first calculate the the income of dentists’ society and then estimate the income tax they should pay according to the tax law. Finally, we compare the actual income tax paid with the calculated income tax to estimate the tax evasion. Since the data published by the two official institutions are different, we have two different numbers of dentists: 20405 and 26301. We find that in both cases, like other countries in the world such as the United States, England, Italy, Russia, and Greek, self-employed individuals have a high level of tax evasion.
Mahdiyeh Saei
Abstract
The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods ...
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The present study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on exports and imports and the welfare of urban and rural consumers in Iran. For this purpose, the CGE is used as a tool for analysis and The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 1390 as a database. In this study, activity and goods accounts were split into cereal accounts, other agriculture, industry, and mining and services. The results of the model, using three simulation scenarios, showed that as a result of climate change, the production of all sectors excluding industry and mining would be reduced, which would result in higher prices for cereals and lower prices for other activities. In addition, grain exports will decrease in different scenarios and exports of other goods will increase. On the other hand, cereal imports will decrease as imports and other commodities decrease. In this regard, the welfare of urban and rural households will also decrease, which is more pronounced for urban households. According to the results, the macroeconomic effects of these scenarios are the reduction of nominal and real GDP, total absorption and private consumption of households.
Narmin Davoudi; Hassan Heidari
Abstract
The role of deep hapbit in countercyclical behavior of mark-up and its impact on the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks have already been studied, but its strength in the presence of Philips curve with price stickiness is not clear. The purpose of this study is to develop a New Keynesian ...
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The role of deep hapbit in countercyclical behavior of mark-up and its impact on the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks have already been studied, but its strength in the presence of Philips curve with price stickiness is not clear. The purpose of this study is to develop a New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC) following Cristiano et al. (2005), to investigate the simultaneous effect of price stickiness and deep habits on monetary and fiscal shock transmission using Markov- switching stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model for the Iranian economy. The results of impulse-response functions show reducing markup for one period due to deep habits and then increasing markup and inflation after a period due to a stronger role of price stickiness. Moreover, although the negative effect of wealth due to government spending is compensated by deep habits consumption and thus makes consumption increase, it is weak in comparison to the strength of expected inflation, and therefore, inflation increases eventually. Overall, the results of this study indicate that deep habits cannot be a dominant factor in the transmission of monetary and fiscal shocks, but according to the obtained impulse response functions, it can be the strong reason to delay increasing inflation. Also, deep habits consumption can be a good reason for increasing consumption and compensating of the negative effect of wealth due to fiscal shock.
Ali Asghar Salem; reza zamani; Negin sadat Faghihi
Abstract
In this study, the effect of socio-economic variables on bread demand has been investigated using AIDS model and micro data. In this model, socio-economic variables such as age, gender and marital status of household breadwinner, his/her own level of education and that of the spouse’s, household ...
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In this study, the effect of socio-economic variables on bread demand has been investigated using AIDS model and micro data. In this model, socio-economic variables such as age, gender and marital status of household breadwinner, his/her own level of education and that of the spouse’s, household size, and employment status and income level of household members have been used. A dummy variable is also used to account for implementation of targeted subsidies law is also used and, in this study, it shows the effects of this policy. To meet this end, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is applied. This model has been estimated using the consolidated data and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method and the information from more than 165,000 urban households in the country for the years 2007-2015 and for different income groups (low income, medium and wealthy). The results of this research show that, during the period under study, bread was an essential goods for all income groups. The price elasticity of bread demand for all income groups was 0/5. Therefore, bread is an inelastic goods for all income groups. Also, the coefficients related to household size, level of education for the breadwinner and his/her spouse, employment status and marital status of household breadwinner and the dummy variable of targeted subsidies law are positive and significant. The coefficient related to the age of household breadwinner for poor and middle-income households has been estimated to be positive and for wealthy households it has not been found to be significant .The coefficient belonging to the gender of the head of household for poor households has been estimated to be insignificant and for middle-income and wealthy households it has been estimated to be positive and significant.
Rogayeh Nazari; Godratoallah Emamverdi
Abstract
Innovators and investors often claim that there is a “funding gap” or “valley of death” in the middle phase of the process between basic research and commercialization of a new product. This gap or valley has a significant impact on the productivity of financial incentives to ...
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Innovators and investors often claim that there is a “funding gap” or “valley of death” in the middle phase of the process between basic research and commercialization of a new product. This gap or valley has a significant impact on the productivity of financial incentives to support R&D activities to move the technology toward commercialization. Financial incentives include tax incentives, subsidies, grants, and other incentives. Each company faces the marginal rate of return and the marginal cost of capital for R&D expenditures, which are influenced by public R&D policies. This research aims to apply the complexity of the microeconomic conceptual framework into a regional form using CES functions. Therefore, three regions of Europe (OECD), South East Asia and Central Asia are selected to compare the effects of financial incentives. For this purpose, spatial dynamic panel models for the period 2005–2016 is used. By confirming the SDM model, government fiscal incentives have internal, external and total impacts as supportive policies that can stimulate R&D activities and their funding. The positive and significant total effect of tax incentives on R&D was confirmed in OECD countries and positive external influence was affirmed in South East Asia, but for Central Asian countries, the effect of tax incentives was not confirmed. There is also an interactive (substitution) relationship between direct support and tax incentives in OECD countries. This relationship is complementary to South East Asia and Central Asia countries.
Javad Barati
Abstract
The unequal distribution of facilities, demand and supply of tourism in provinces of Iran is due to the different levels of tourism competitiveness in provincial. One of the reasons that can have a significant effect on this difference is the specialization of different subdivisions of the tourismsector ...
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The unequal distribution of facilities, demand and supply of tourism in provinces of Iran is due to the different levels of tourism competitiveness in provincial. One of the reasons that can have a significant effect on this difference is the specialization of different subdivisions of the tourismsector in the provinces. But because of the indirect effects and the various behaviors of local governments in the specialization of tourism, the relationship between this specialization and the competitiveness in tourism is not necessarily the samedirection. This study aimed to investigate the impact of tourism specialization (by separating production specialization, accommodation specialization, travel agencies specialization and tour services specialization) on the tourism competitiveness between provinces of Iran using spatial panel econometrics. Data were collected for 31 provinces during the period 2011-2016. The results of Spatial autoregressive (SAR) showed that besides the accommodation specialization, other indicators of tourism specialization had a positive and significant impact on tourism competitiveness. Both demand-side indicators (including indexes of tourism demand, travel agency specialization and tour services specialization) and supply-side indicator (production specialization) has a positive and significant relationship with tourism competitiveness. Not significant of accommodation specialization can be from the consequence of the indirect and widespread effects that led to a deviation of investment in accommodation facilities and especially in the hotel industry. Also, the results of the spatial model on “specialization of tour services” index show that overnight stays of tourists in the border provinces are higher than the central provinces (including Tehran, Alborz, Qom, Qazvin, Markazi, Isfahan and Yazd). This conclusion, for the index of tour services specialization, indicates the weakness of these services in performance as an advanced means of attracting tourists and enhancing tourism sustainability in destination provinces.
Narges Ahmadvand; Mohammad Alizadeh; Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Mahbobeh Delfan
Abstract
The government expenditure in economic affairs can act as a tool for creating and sustaining development by improving income distribution. Therefore, prioritization and optimal allocation of economic expenditures of governments will be so important. In this regard, the present study has investigated ...
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The government expenditure in economic affairs can act as a tool for creating and sustaining development by improving income distribution. Therefore, prioritization and optimal allocation of economic expenditures of governments will be so important. In this regard, the present study has investigated the impact of government expenditure on economic sector and related sub-sectors (agriculture, industry and mining, trade, information technology, energy, housing, transportation, environment, cooperatives affairs, and water resources) on income distribution in Iran's economy during business cycles. In this study, Markov Switching Auto Regressive model (MSAR) has been used to estimate time-series data during the time period between 1973 to 2019. The result of the study indicates that economic sector and agricultural, water resources and transportation subsectors during business cycles, “housing, trade, and cooperative affairs” subsectors during the boom periods, and the environment subsector during the recession periods have reduced income inequality significantly. Also, the government expenditure in industrial, mining, and energy subsectors during business cycles and information technology subsector during the boom periods have increased income inequality significantly. Finally, the subsectors of agricultural, water, industry and mining, commerce and cooperation, transportation have been more stable in the recession regime. Meanwhile, the economic sector and subsectors of information technology, housing and development, environment and energy have been more stable in the boom regime. Therefore, the components of government expenditure on income distribution have asymmetric behavior.
Vahid Dehbashi; Hadi Esmaeilpour Moghadam; Zahra Arbabi
Abstract
In decades, improving The business environment is considered a solution for the economic problems of societies on a macro level. The business environment includes factors outside the control of economic actors that can affect their business performance. In recent decades, this concept has been considered ...
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In decades, improving The business environment is considered a solution for the economic problems of societies on a macro level. The business environment includes factors outside the control of economic actors that can affect their business performance. In recent decades, this concept has been considered by countries and international institutions, so that a part of a country's macro policies and objectives is assigned to improving the business environment. Hence, this study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic instability on a number of active firms in the Iranian business environment. Our results show that the quality of the economic, physical and human environment affected the the number of active firms in the framework of cointegration and VAR models. In other words, increasing macroeconomic instability as an index of -negative- the quality of economic environment reduces the number of active firms in the long run. Human development and physical capital have positive and significant effects on increasing the number of active firms. In this context, it is necessary to adopt proper plans and programs for removal of barriers, especially economic instability, and to implement these programs by the government.
Hassan Dargahi; Amin Beiranvand
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, social and demographic factors with the prevalence rate of drug use in the provinces of Iran during the period of 1386-1394. Due to the lack of reliable and sufficient data, a time series data for the prevalence rate is developed ...
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, social and demographic factors with the prevalence rate of drug use in the provinces of Iran during the period of 1386-1394. Due to the lack of reliable and sufficient data, a time series data for the prevalence rate is developed by using probit models and estimation of the probabilities of addiction for 10 age groups with different demographic characteristics in three groups of provinces (with high, medium, and low prevalence rates). Then, the panel data model was used to answer the research questions. The results of the first part of this study show that the prevalence rate of drug use in the Iran increased from about 3.7% in 2007 to about 4.5% in Year 2015. The results of the second part of the study show that the prevalence rate of addiction has a negative and significant relationship with per capita income; men education level, and has a positive and significant relationship with inflation and Gini coefficient. Also, the results indicate a positive and significant relationship between the prevalence rate of addiction and the poverty and unemployment (especially men unemployment). Another finding is the negative and significant relation between the prevalence of addiction and the real per capita government expenditure. Also, the positive relationship of the economic downturn with the prevalence rate is confirmed. This fact suggests that the rate of drug addiction is counter-cyclical in the country.
hossien amiri; raheleh heidari
Abstract
This study presents new evidence on the effects of life insurance, banking and capital market on economic growth in 18 developed and 20 developing countries using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to dynamic panel data method for years 2000-2016. The results show that in developed countries ...
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This study presents new evidence on the effects of life insurance, banking and capital market on economic growth in 18 developed and 20 developing countries using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to dynamic panel data method for years 2000-2016. The results show that in developed countries life insurance accelerates economic growth, while the effects of private credit on economic growth are negative and the stock market has not had a significant effect on growth. In developing countries, the results indicate that the stock market can increase economic growth, while the effect of private credit is negative on growth and life insurance has not had a significant effect. Overall, the results suggest that the effects of development in financial activities on growth vary based on the time period, income level, and financial development. That is, countries at different levels of development should engage in different financial activities to ensure sustainable growth.
Ali Tayebnia; Mohsen Mehrara; Azadeh Akhtari
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is identifying speculative rational bubbles and applying early warning indices to illustrate these bubbles in USD/IRR informal exchange rate during volatile period of March 2011 to September 2018. The deviation of the exchange rate from fundamental values which is known as bubble ...
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The purpose of this paper is identifying speculative rational bubbles and applying early warning indices to illustrate these bubbles in USD/IRR informal exchange rate during volatile period of March 2011 to September 2018. The deviation of the exchange rate from fundamental values which is known as bubble may occur as a result of a speculative attack to the value of local currency which, if the authorities do not defend the value of the national currency, will lead to a currency crisis. Therefore, it is very important for policy-makers to correctly identify bubble periods to intervene timely in the foreign exchange market and to prevent deviation of exchange rate from its fundamental value. For this purpose, rational speculative bubbles modeling using Markov regime-switching model with time-varying probabilities including dormant, collapsing and explosive regimes with high ability in identifying the time of formation and collapsing of bubbles has been done. In our model, the sanction index and changes in foreign exchange reserves are early warning indicators. The sanction index is the cause of speculative demand in the informal foreign exchange market over the period covered by this study which, coupled with central bank interventions to reduce the pressure on the foreign exchange market, have been able to explain recent currency speculative bubbles. Our results confirm that rational speculative bubbles exist in USD/IRR informal exchange rate. Based on our results, time intervals identified as explosive regime are exactly contemporaneous with currency crisis periods. On the other hand, collapsing regimes tend to coincide with post-crisis periods. Dormant regimes identified in this study correspond to periods that the exchange rate return has a mild increasing trend. Comparing designed model to other specifications display sufficient robustness in the presented model.
Shahzad Broumand Jazi
Abstract
In the rational choice model, the individual decides to use drugs after calculating their cost-benefit. However, since using drugs involves economic and health costs, public policies are being implemented by adolescents to prevent the experience and consumption of these drugs. As at present, these ...
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In the rational choice model, the individual decides to use drugs after calculating their cost-benefit. However, since using drugs involves economic and health costs, public policies are being implemented by adolescents to prevent the experience and consumption of these drugs. As at present, these policies are primarily based on tax increases, consumption restrictions or warning advertisements about the dangers associated by using these substances. In other words, the purpose of these policies is to increase the costs imposed on the consumer, and the pleasure of consumption. However, today these policies are trying to reverse the rising trend in using drugs among adolescents. In this article, we emphasize the importance of pleasure from using drugs, and in particular the expected pleasure and real pleasure at first use. To this end, we use a theoretical framework for adolescent drug experience to define new ways to adopt public policies related to the primary prevention of using drugs. In particular, we identify, evaluate, and promote alternative activities for drug use: sports and creative activities, entertainment, and more.
Fereshteh Mohamadian
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to explain the factors affecting the economic growth gap between OPEC and East Asian countries using the Shapley–Owen–Shorrocks and Oaxaca–Blinder variance decomposition methods over the period 1996-2018. The results of the Shapley–Owen–Shorrocks ...
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The purpose of this study is to explain the factors affecting the economic growth gap between OPEC and East Asian countries using the Shapley–Owen–Shorrocks and Oaxaca–Blinder variance decomposition methods over the period 1996-2018. The results of the Shapley–Owen–Shorrocks decomposition reveal that in East Asian countries, institutional and policy variables (government consumption, inflation, rule of law, trade) and human capital explain 53.31 and 31.38 percent of economic growth fluctuations, respectively. In contrast, in OPEC members, institutional and policy variables and physical capital (investment, Fertility rate) explain 66.72 and 17.75 percent of economic growth fluctuations, respectively. According to the results of the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, about 43 percent of the economic growth gap between East Asia and OPEC is due to explained components (mainly rule of law, investment, human capital) and 57 percent due to unexplained components (mainly the return of investment, human capital, inflation, rule of law). Accordingly, efficient use of factors in relation to their endowments has a more important role in explaining the economic growth gap of the countries. A noteworthy point in this regard is the important role of institutional and policy variables. Since institutional and policy variables as well as human capital, fertility rate, and investment are greatly influenced by governance, in order to promote economic growth in OPEC, policymaker should focus on the factors improving good governance.
Ali Asqhar Salem; Habib Morovat; Reza Bakhtiarinejad
Abstract
Nowadays, Information and Communications Technology is growing rapidly due to the considerable increase in using knowledge-based theories in all countries, especially in developing economies such as Iran. As a non-competitive technology with unlimited use capacity, Information and Communications ...
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Nowadays, Information and Communications Technology is growing rapidly due to the considerable increase in using knowledge-based theories in all countries, especially in developing economies such as Iran. As a non-competitive technology with unlimited use capacity, Information and Communications Technology entry in the general application and social life shows its potential to affect social welfare. This study will evaluate the impact of Information and Communications Technology on Sen's Social Welfare Index in Iranian provinces using data from 2011 to 2016. The paper uses Feasible Generalized Least Squares method to capture variance heteroscedasticities and cross-section correlations. The results indicate that Information and Communications Technology has a significant and positive effect on Iranian social welfare. Moreover, variables such as industrialization, government spending, and urbanization have a substantial and positive impact on social welfare. The inflation rate, on the other hand, has a significant and negative effect.
Fakhraldin Zaveh
Abstract
This research aims to study the relationship between value-added of the construction sector and the Iranian economy using Iranian National Accounts data for period 1959-2014. The gross domestic product of Iran is broken down into three segments: construction, oil, and the rest, and the cyclical components ...
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This research aims to study the relationship between value-added of the construction sector and the Iranian economy using Iranian National Accounts data for period 1959-2014. The gross domestic product of Iran is broken down into three segments: construction, oil, and the rest, and the cyclical components of each of these variables are extracted. Applying different statistical techniques (correlation, least square regression, and vector autoregressive analysis) along with defining and extracting prolonged relative low-activity periods –times consistent of at least two consecutive periods of negative growth rates of the cyclical component– we have found that: 1) fluctuations of oil sector leads those of the construction and the rest (oil and construction excluded) sectors. 2) prolonged relative low-activity periods in the construction sector often begin concurrent or after the whole economy, and often ends one year later than the whole economy. 3) a shock to the rest sector has a significant impact on the construction sector. 4) the fluctuations in the construction sector do not have a significant effect on the rest sector. All in all, the results provide no evidence that the construction sector leads or drives the Iranian economy.
Seyed Masih Molana; Abbass Najafizadeh; Ahmad Sarlak; Gholam Ali Haji
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financial development on poverty in Iran. In this study, we used the indicators of the stock market and the money market to examine the effect of financial development on poverty. In order to test the relationship between variables, a smoothing transmission ...
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financial development on poverty in Iran. In this study, we used the indicators of the stock market and the money market to examine the effect of financial development on poverty. In order to test the relationship between variables, a smoothing transmission regression model was used for the period 1989-2016 The results of the model estimation, while confirming the nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty, indicate that Financial development indicators affect the poverty of Iran in the form of a dual regime. So that in the domains of economic growth less and more than 2. 9 percent the impact of financial development indicators on poverty is different and significant. The results indicate that the financial development variable in the banking sector has a negative and significant effect on poverty. In other words, an improvement in the financial development situation in the banking sector has led to a reduction in poverty in the community, But financial development in the capital market has had fewer effects on poverty reduction than financial development in the monetary sector.
Seyed Saleh Akbar Mousavi; Behzad Salmani
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine banking crisis dates in four different groups of countries and also to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses in the year of the banking crisis and three years later, over the period 1980-2019. In the first step, we used the money market pressure ...
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The purpose of this study is to determine banking crisis dates in four different groups of countries and also to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses in the year of the banking crisis and three years later, over the period 1980-2019. In the first step, we used the money market pressure index approach to determine the date of the banking crisis. In the second step, we used the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract different trends from countries' GDPs to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses, three of which are based on the loss in GDP with respect to its trend and the fourth measure is the loss in the trend itself. We also graphically analyzed the number of banking crises in different groups of countries and output losses following crises. In this study, 122 banking crises were identified in four groups of countries. The results of graph analysis of the crises showed that the highest number of banking crises (14 crises) occurred in 2008. Also, about 22 Percentage of the total banking crises (28 crises) occurred in the period 2008-2012, in which the share of high-income countries was higher than other country groups. Then, four alternative measures of real output losses following the banking crisis, the statistics related to the maximum and minimum losses, and graphical analysis were presented.
